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So Ironnerd said Iden will win kona in 2021


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Yeah the Giant deal was signed after the 70.3 event. He spoke about him and/or a mate trying to get the brakes working prior to nice but couldnt. I think at that stage he was just another ITU racer with no money, so it might not be a simple a spending all the cash knowing he had only used the bike once before, and likely never would again.

 

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  • Peter changed the title to So Ironnerd said Iden will win kona in 2021
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COVID will spread through an Olympic village bubble faster than the STDs usually do.

I don't think Iden will really shine at full distance until he quits the short course game. I think, like Gomez stepping up to a 70.3 isn't too difficult, but stepping up to full distance is another s

By the time the next kona is raced jan will be 55 the way things Re going 

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7 minutes ago, Bored@work said:

Peter, why did you change the title of the thread? 

 

14 hours ago, Ironnerd said:

Hey Peter you need to change the topic title to:

So Ironnerd said Iden will win kona in 2021

No one cares what Macca thinks about Jan😀

Edited by dazaau
By request, it seems. Bit confusing but there it is
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4 hours ago, The new guy said:

Iden stated on the Greg Bennet Pod that the reason he rode the road bike at Nice was that his TT bike didnt have fully functioning brakes. He had ridden it at another  70.3 that I presume was Bahrain, which essentially didnt need brakes. He stated that if he had 2 fully working bikes he would 100% have used the TT, even with hindsight, and he thinks a TT with lower gearing was the best option.

 

Interesting that the majority of the Tri world think he won it because he was on a roadie, but he himself didnt want to ride, it, and still think a TT was a better option.

I don't think he necessarily won it because he was on a roadie, but IMO a road bike was the smart choice. There is a significant benefit choosing a road bike over a TT bike for a hilly route, exemplified by the fact the TDF guys jumped off their TT bikes and onto a road bike when the TT stage got hilly. And that was for only 15km. If the differences between the 2 were negligible in the hills, there's no way they would have swapped bikes for a short 15km section. 

Even if you look at just the weight saving - 3kg over a TT bike? If you were doing a training ride what would you choose? Have you ever tried descending on the aero bars or climbing off the saddle on a TT bike or taking tight corners at speed on a TT bike. 

 

nice-bike-course.png

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2 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

The majority of the tri world knows shit. The professionals all get detailed advice from their equipment providers. None of them would have been saying ‘ride a road bike’ on the Nice Course. 

You don't need to be a cycling aficionado to know a road bike was the way to go. You could just see by watching the race how easily Iden was climbing, descending and cornering compared to AB and others. We've all been up in the hills on our TT bikes at some stage...probably only once?

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Brownlee's Plasma is almost 10kg compared to a top road bike which would be 6.8kg. That's a shitload of extra weight when you're climbing!

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3 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

The majority of the tri world knows shit. The professionals all get detailed advice from their equipment providers. None of them would have been saying ‘ride a road bike’ on the Nice Course. 

Yeah I don’t know about that. There have been some bizarre equipment choices over the years from the pros. The pro that rode Gatorskins at Kona, Sanders with the Camelbak, pros riding with no spares, pros that don’t know how to change tyres and/or not carrying right equipment e.g Norm Stadler Kona. 

And the worlds are a great marketing opportunity. Scott want Brownlee riding the Plasma because that’s what triathletes will buy, they’re not interested in a 10k roadie. 
 

 

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The Col De Vence is 9.5km at a pretty even 6% gradient. It’s not the same as the gradient on the final climb in last year’s TdF ITT - which had ramps of up to 20%. 
 

also the TDF ITT was a full gas, where every second counted. Even assuming that there was an advantage in climbing on the road bike on the Col - both before and after the Col De Vence the parcours of the rest of the bike course clearly favoured the TT. The assumed marginal gain of a road bike climbing at just below FTP for 9km is far outweighed by the aero advantages of a TT bike over the whole course. 

Edited by Andrew #1
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A couple of GTN videos on the subject. In the first one Mark claims that research has shown that the aerodynamic advantages of a TT bike outweigh the weight and positioning advantages of a road bike for male professional triathletes for gradients up to 7.5% (but for us hackers that threshold is reached around 4%):

 

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Breakfast with Bob. Daytona interview with Gustav @2.50 - the reason he chose the road bike was because Nice was only a week after Lausanne - which was his target A race - and he didn’t think it wise to change his bike position in such a short time (implying that he’d been on the road bike all year I presume). 
https://youtu.be/-3kOaZV07No

 

@5minutes - as WTC have taken away the validation rule for this year’s race he’s planning on doing Kona after the Olympics.

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1 hour ago, Andrew #1 said:

The Col De Vence is 9.5km at a pretty even 6% gradient. It’s not the same as the gradient on the final climb in last year’s TdF ITT - which had ramps of up to 20%. 
 

also the TDF ITT was a full gas, where every second counted. Even assuming that there was an advantage in climbing on the road bike on the Col - both before and after the Col De Vence the parcours of the rest of the bike course clearly favoured the TT. The assumed marginal gain of a road bike climbing at just below FTP for 9km is far outweighed by the aero advantages of a TT bike over the whole course. 

And, even then, pros like Tom D preferred to stay on the TT rig

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I don't know that he could have a great Kona so soon after the Olympics, if he was doing purely Olympics prep up to then.  But he seems a nice kid (he's young enough and I'm old enough to call him that) with a bit of spark about him.  Honestly couldn't believe he was that young listening to his interview, as he presented himself really well and mature, and was interesting to listen to.  And plenty of years left to keep improving!  I can certainly see him not just reaching the top, but becoming a bit of a marketers dream, and forging of quite a good career and life from this.

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7 hours ago, zed said:

You don't need to be a cycling aficionado to know a road bike was the way to go. You could just see by watching the race how easily Iden was climbing, descending and cornering compared to AB and others. We've all been up in the hills on our TT bikes at some stage...probably only once?

Speak for yourself.  Come over here and do some real courses 🤣

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14 hours ago, goughy said:

I don't know that he could have a great Kona so soon after the Olympics, if he was doing purely Olympics prep up to then.  But he seems a nice kid (he's young enough and I'm old enough to call him that) with a bit of spark about him.  Honestly couldn't believe he was that young listening to his interview, as he presented himself really well and mature, and was interesting to listen to.  And plenty of years left to keep improving!  I can certainly see him not just reaching the top, but becoming a bit of a marketers dream, and forging of quite a good career and life from this.

Yeah it would be good to see him do well, although Kona is a different animal. You don't know how anyone is going to go till they get there. I thought Brownlee was in with a good chance of getting on the podium, but he capitulated big time. Not sure how you would describe his Kona race, I was a bit surprised with how he raced. He's super competitive and aggressive, but I thought he would have raced a bit smarter when he got his flat. He'll win it one day I'm sure, but needs to change the way he races when he's racing Ironman/Kona.

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5 minutes ago, zed said:

Yeah it would be good to see him do well, although Kona is a different animal. You don't know how anyone is going to go till they get there. I thought Brownlee was in with a good chance of getting on the podium, but he capitulated big time. Not sure how you would describe his Kona race, I was a bit surprised with how he raced. He's super competitive and aggressive, but I thought he would have raced a bit smarter when he got his flat. He'll win it one day I'm sure, but needs to change the way he races when he's racing Ironman/Kona.

He's a smart guy and think he knows those watt bombs after the flat and the opening stages of the run were not smart.

But in his mind he was chasing pressuring Frodeno. He blew up and did 8:25!!

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4 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

He's a smart guy and think he knows those watt bombs after the flat and the opening stages of the run were not smart.

But in his mind he was chasing pressuring Frodeno. He blew up and did 8:25!!

Yeah that's 2 hours quicker than me! Not too shabby for his first crack.

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Finally listened to the podcast. Agree with most of what Macca said. Wouldn't say that Macca said that Jan can't win Kona but based on history of how he has won Kona with big races and big wins going into Kona Jan hasn't had his winning formula due to the pandemic. It will be 2 years away from big racing and really any racing come Kona.
Now with age and based on Jans history of when he lost to Patrick losing on a year with little and light racing that his less likely to take the win. 

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On 14/01/2021 at 12:33 PM, MackaEvo2 said:

Finally listened to the podcast. Agree with most of what Macca said. Wouldn't say that Macca said that Jan can't win Kona but based on history of how he has won Kona with big races and big wins going into Kona Jan hasn't had his winning formula due to the pandemic. It will be 2 years away from big racing and really any racing come Kona.
Now with age and based on Jans history of when he lost to Patrick losing on a year with little and light racing that his less likely to take the win. 

Kona will be on this year but possibly just for the pros.  It has been proven that sporting events for pros can be run successfully provided that the new ‘ways’ are adopted.  They have to go ahead as it’s the professionals income as well as sponsors that are at stake 

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37 minutes ago, Prince said:

Kona will be on this year but possibly just for the pros.  It has been proven that sporting events for pros can be run successfully provided that the new ‘ways’ are adopted.  They have to go ahead as it’s the professionals income as well as sponsors that are at stake 

There is no excuse that all pros from australia can go.  If c grade pros got starts at Daytona and could fly home after, its just Disorganised Aussie pros that will mess it up.

also, I even saw Belinda Granger is going to Miami from the sunny coast and back for challenge Miami.  With 14 days in hotel on return. And she did the same for Daytona. 
 

if I was someone like Tim Berkel, I’d be asking Wtc for a guaranteed start now so he can plan to be there. And try and do a deal where you can fly in from Australia and not quarantine and just do the 14 days on return.  
 

but they need to start planning now. 
 

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5 hours ago, Peter said:

if I was someone like Tim Berkel, I’d be asking Wtc for a guaranteed start now so he can plan to be there.

Doesn’t his podium finish at IM Cairns guarantee him a Kona start this year? I thought it did as a regional championship.

Therefore all he needs to do is apply to the federal government for a travel permit, which should be easy, and think of a relatively safe place to train and travel from. Also get a vaccine asap. It really shouldn’t be that hard for an Aussie pro that has qualified already ...

Edited by Andrew #1
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7 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

and think of a relatively safe place to train and travel from. Also get a vaccine asap. 

Probably no better places in the world than Australia far as COVID goes

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1 hour ago, ironpo said:

Probably no better places in the world than Australia far as COVID goes

At some point you have to travel to the United States if you are going to race Kona well as a pro. Maybe that’s 3 months before, maybe that’s only 3 weeks prior to the race. Depends on the athlete. Making a wise selection of this US base seems to be an important part of the overall equation when it comes to delivering a top performance in the actual race. The covid hassle is another issue to factor in. Another option would do the Ironman specific preparation phase close by - in similar conditions and time zone - and fly in early on race week. Fiji for example: it has low covid rates of infection. There is a direct 6hr flight to Honolulu and is in an adjacent time zone. 

 

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38 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

At some point you have to travel to the United States if you are going to race Kona well as a pro. Maybe that’s 3 months before, maybe that’s only 3 weeks prior to the race. Depends on the athlete. Making a wise selection of this US base seems to be an important part of the overall equation when it comes to delivering a top performance in the actual race. The covid hassle is another issue to factor in. Another option would do the Ironman specific preparation phase close by - in similar conditions and time zone - and fly in early on race week. Fiji for example: it has low covid rates of infection. There is a direct 6hr flight to Honolulu and is in an adjacent time zone. 

 

I think many countries including the USA will learn to manage events properly in this COVID environment.  Ie Kona should be in its own bubble for maybe three months before the big day for pros to train at.  I am hoping and also expecting that Australian with the Aussie open and more importantly Japan worn the Olympics will show the world how to do events really well in this new epidemic period.  Let’s face it we need to adapt as it really won’t be until mid next year before things may get back to normal and even then that’s no guarantee as we really don’t know if the vaccine will definitely work to suppress the virus considerably.  

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On 13/01/2021 at 4:29 PM, Andrew #1 said:

5km climb at 6.5% gradient - pure climbing comparison and the TT bike comes out on top! Sacrebleu!

Interesting! I like the GTN and GCN channels. I would have thought the S5 would be quicker.

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2 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

At some point you have to travel to the United States if you are going to race Kona well as a pro. Maybe that’s 3 months before, maybe that’s only 3 weeks prior to the race. Depends on the athlete. Making a wise selection of this US base seems to be an important part of the overall equation when it comes to delivering a top performance in the actual race. The covid hassle is another issue to factor in. Another option would do the Ironman specific preparation phase close by - in similar conditions and time zone - and fly in early on race week. Fiji for example: it has low covid rates of infection. There is a direct 6hr flight to Honolulu and is in an adjacent time zone. 

 

Why ????

 

just fly to the big island or even Maui which is arwsome for training 3 weeks Or up to  3 months out from the race just like  most athletes normally do 

no need to go anywhere else and risk exposure to COVID and spend $$$$$$

fly straight in  to Hawaii ,only got quarantine on way back in 

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Currently Hawaii has a compulsory 10 day self quarantine. It is averaging around 150 new Covid cases per day at the moment. Some European countries are not allowed to travel to Hawaii at all. This may all change as the US rolls out the vaccine.

I think it unlikely that, as been suggested, Kona could be put in a 3 month bubble. Tourism is very important to the economy and has been devastated by Covid. The government and business will want tourists back ASAP and would not want to shut Kona down.

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3 hours ago, Ironnerd said:

Currently Hawaii has a compulsory 10 day self quarantine. It is averaging around 150 new Covid cases per day at the moment. Some European countries are not allowed to travel to Hawaii at all. This may all change as the US rolls out the vaccine.

I think it unlikely that, as been suggested, Kona could be put in a 3 month bubble. Tourism is very important to the economy and has been devastated by Covid. The government and business will want tourists back ASAP and would not want to shut Kona down.

Sorry I’ve missed where its been Suggested a 3 month bubble in Kona?

who’s suggested that?

they do know its a Town of 15-20k people.  What are they suggesting? Lock down all the locals for a piss ant sport?  Lol

please tell me who said 3 months @Ironnerd

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5 hours ago, Prince said:

I think many countries including the USA will learn to manage events properly in this COVID environment.  Ie Kona should be in its own bubble for maybe three months before the big day for pros to train at.  I am hoping and also expecting that Australian with the Aussie open and more importantly Japan worn the Olympics will show the world how to do events really well in this new epidemic period.  Let’s face it we need to adapt as it really won’t be until mid next year before things may get back to normal and even then that’s no guarantee as we really don’t know if the vaccine will definitely work to suppress the virus considerably.  

@Peter

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4 hours ago, Ironnerd said:

Currently Hawaii has a compulsory 10 day self quarantine. It is averaging around 150 new Covid cases per day at the moment. Some European countries are not allowed to travel to Hawaii at all. This may all change as the US rolls out the vaccine.

I think it unlikely that, as been suggested, Kona could be put in a 3 month bubble. Tourism is very important to the economy and has been devastated by Covid. The government and business will want tourists back ASAP and would not want to shut Kona down.

They could certainly shut down some areas for athletes to train, i.e dig me beach/portions of the queen k, or at the least give athletes special dispensation to travel to Kona. Remember, its the pros livelihood and so many sponsorship dollars hinge on having the world champs at Kona. 

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34 minutes ago, Peter said:

Yeah sorry. I have prince on block because he’s a DH. 
 

proven right again. 

Mr moderator, can you step up and do something about this please. I have no idea why this has person is attacking me, and you wonder why you have to keep locking threads. This is a thread about Kona FFS. 

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Look at the debacle we are having with the Australian Open, just getting people here. Then look at the challenges the NBA and EPL are having.

The model which worked was putting the NBA into a bubble for their finals, they can afford that, don't think WTC could afford to pay for a bubble.

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16 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Look at the debacle we are having with the Australian Open, just getting people here. Then look at the challenges the NBA and EPL are having.

The model which worked was putting the NBA into a bubble for their finals, they can afford that, don't think WTC could afford to pay for a bubble.

Agree. 
 

and its clear WTC don’t care about pros

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1 hour ago, BarryBevan said:

Look at the debacle we are having with the Australian Open, just getting people here. Then look at the challenges the NBA and EPL are having.

The model which worked was putting the NBA into a bubble for their finals, they can afford that, don't think WTC could afford to pay for a bubble.

Correct

i can’t see kona happening 

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On 17/01/2021 at 10:08 AM, Prince said:

I think many countries including the USA will learn to manage events properly in this COVID environment.  Ie Kona should be in its own bubble for maybe three months before the big day for pros to train at.  I am hoping and also expecting that Australian with the Aussie open and more importantly Japan worn the Olympics will show the world how to do events really well in this new epidemic period.  Let’s face it we need to adapt as it really won’t be until mid next year before things may get back to normal and even then that’s no guarantee as we really don’t know if the vaccine will definitely work to suppress the virus considerably.  

 I think F1 showed in 2020 that sporting events can still we done in a covid era 

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On 17/01/2021 at 3:16 PM, ironpo said:

Correct

i can’t see kona happening 

Definitely not for Age Groupers, I would imagine even if it was opened up for Agers most countries wouldn't be able to fly there e.g Australia. Realistically how many people are going to do 4 weeks quarantine?
 

So would IM run the race just for the Pros? Are they going to be able to close roads just for 80 people and that's assuming they all turn up. I suppose if IM were in a better spot financially you could say they would move heaven and earth to make sure the World Champs happens, even if they run it at a massive loss, but they simply can't afford to do that. From a marketing perspective, it makes sense to run the race, even if just for the pros, but they is broke.

 

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Ironman have no incentive to run a Pro only race. Ironmans customers are Ag’ers not pro triathletes. Getting AG races happening is a better marketing strategy than a pro race to keep the punters signing up. Ironman will be doing everything to see as many AG races happen next year as possible. 
 

Now- do I personally want to see Kona for Pros. Absolutely - bring it on. 

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5 minutes ago, Peter said:

Kona will happen for pros and age groupers.  
 

no way would they run the race for pros only.  

In 2022. Not this year. We can't travel till 2022, I'd imagine most countries are in a similar boat?

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7 minutes ago, zed said:

In 2022. Not this year. We can't travel till 2022, I'd imagine most countries are in a similar boat?

Australia doesn’t matter.  They will still have age groupers there. 
 

2021 will happen. 

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6 minutes ago, Peter said:

Australia doesn’t matter.  They will still have age groupers there. 
 

2021 will happen. 

 

Just now, goughy said:

I'm assuming they could fill the ag field with just Americans if they wanted to do that?  Surely that wouldn't be an issue for them?

Yup true.

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