Jump to content

So Ironnerd said Iden will win kona in 2021


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 116
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

COVID will spread through an Olympic village bubble faster than the STDs usually do.

I don't think Iden will really shine at full distance until he quits the short course game. I think, like Gomez stepping up to a 70.3 isn't too difficult, but stepping up to full distance is another s

By the time the next kona is raced jan will be 55 the way things Re going 

Posted Images

By the time Kona comes around Jan will be 40. If he can remain injury free I think that he could still make the podium and challenge for the win.

If Kona goes ahead this year my pick would be Gustav Iden.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ironnerd said:

By the time Kona comes around Jan will be 40. If he can remain injury free I think that he could still make the podium and challenge for the win.

If Kona goes ahead this year my pick would be Gustav Iden.

Has any man ever won Kona first time on the island?
Also which Ironman is Iden qualifying at? 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Has he not already qualified through 70.3s?

Added to the list of things I wish to see: Jan to win again. 

 

And of course it's not the prince's fault he drafted. He's such a magnetic presence people just want to be near him. And the security has to be near him as well. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Ironnerd said:

By the time Kona comes around Jan will be 40. If he can remain injury free I think that he could still make the podium and challenge for the win.

If Kona goes ahead this year my pick would be Gustav Iden.

By the time the next kona is raced jan will be 55 the way things Re going 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, MackaEvo2 said:

Has any man ever won Kona first time on the island?
Also which Ironman is Iden qualifying at? 

By winning the 70.3 worlds he has qualified. It will be a complex route to qualifying for the Pro's and AG's this year as they navigate trying to work out which IM's will go ahead.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, ironpo said:

By the time the next kona is raced jan will be 55 the way things Re going 

I was thinking about this the other day. I remember reading a story about an older statesman of the sport still trying to win his age group at Kona.

He was hoping to get it the first year he went up an age group. Then he missed out due to injury. With Kona being cancelled in 2020 (& I think 2021) I'm thinkin he may never get the chance to race Kona again at his age.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ironnerd said:

By winning the 70.3 worlds he has qualified. It will be a complex route to qualifying for the Pro's and AG's this year as they navigate trying to work out which IM's will go ahead.

Ah yes I forgot that they can qualify by winning 70.3 worlds however that was 2020 and not sure if they are rolling it over for 2021.

Even if they do I still stand by history where no man has ever won Kona on debut.
To also do it having never done an Ironman; again history says no chance.

Has Iden even said Kona is his aim as I would think the Olympics would be his focus... 

Assuming the Olympics, 70.3 worlds and Kona all go ahead I can't see him racing all of them and if he did certainly wouldn't see Kona as his focus nor being a chance of a win against the likes of Frodo or Sanders or the Hoff, or TO or Beals or McNamee, or Kienle or.....

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Brownlee

Don't agree.  He is hedging his bets like javier has also done and a few others.

They cant compete in short and long at the same time and with Tokyo in 2021 they cant double with kona.

Brownlee can't win

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Peter said:

Don't agree.  He is hedging his bets like javier has also done and a few others.

They cant compete in short and long at the same time and with Tokyo in 2021 they cant double with kona.

Brownlee can't win

At least, Andrew has not posted his Wurf man love yet 😄

Link to post
Share on other sites

Gustav has stated his short term focus is Tokyo, as soon as that event finishes all focus is on Kona. The only way he would do an ironman prior to Kona is if the Olympics are cancelled or postponed.


I dont think he can win on debut, but those Norwegians sure do some Ks in training - its almost like fast long course training for olympic distance. I think he will be a lot more competitive than most debutants...

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MackaEvo2 said:


Even if they do I still stand by history where no man has ever won Kona on debut.
To also do it having never done an Ironman; again history says no chance.
 

If you exclude 1978 (first race), then: 

1979 Tom Warren (first ever Ironman)

1980 Dave Scott (first ever Ironman),

1996 Luc van Lierde (first ever Ironman)

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, MackaEvo2 said:


Even if they do I still stand by history where no man has ever won Kona on debut.

 

1 hour ago, Aidan said:

If you exclude 1978 (first race), then: 

1979 Tom Warren (first ever Ironman)

1980 Dave Scott (first ever Ironman),

1996 Luc van Lierde (first ever Ironman)

Thanks Aidan.  It worries me that some people have zero idea of the history of a sport that’s less than 50 years old. 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, goughy said:

Chrissie W (though wasn't her first ever ironman was it?)

5 hours ago, MackaEvo2 said:



Even if they do I still stand by history where no man has ever won Kona on debut.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Peter said:

 

Thanks Aidan.  It worries me that some people have zero idea of the history of a sport that’s less than 50 years old. 

If that worries you then a lot of things will! It's pretty obscure trivia.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Aidan said:

If that worries you then a lot of things will! It's pretty obscure trivia.

I should clarify that it worries me on the only triathlon forum in the Southern Hemisphere that someone that’s been a member since 2012 and I’d assume in the sport that long if not longer doesn’t know that a few had done it 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Aidan said:

If you exclude 1978 (first race), then: 

1979 Tom Warren (first ever Ironman)

1980 Dave Scott (first ever Ironman),

1996 Luc van Lierde (first ever Ironman)

Correct, I don't include the first race nor the first 3 you mention because there was little to no history or competition. Even Luc Van Lierde though is a different era.
The last person I see who was able to do short course and long course at the same time was Greg Welch who won in 1994.
These days while the ITU guys have certainly made a massive impact on long course racing that typically comes when they make the move away from short course like Crowie did or Frodo.

Isn't Crowie the only man in history to do the double of 70.3 world champion and Kona although he was also a previous winner?

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, MackaEvo2 said:


The last person I see who was able to do short course and long course at the same time was Greg Welch who won in 1994.
 

Karen Smyers 1995

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Aidan said:

Karen Smyers 1995

Michelle Jones would be the last I would consider from the women's field but haven't considered the women's field as Iden races in the mens.

I think racing even in the last 10 years has changed a lot.
Just can't see it being possible for someone no matter how talented to race the Olympics, 70.3 worlds and Kona and expect to be able to win them all.

Crowie is the only man in history that I understand to have done the double of 70.3 and Kona and that's without the Olympics in the mix 

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, MackaEvo2 said:

Michelle Jones would be the last I would consider from the women's field but haven't considered the women's field as Iden races in the mens.

I think racing even in the last 10 years has changed a lot.
Just can't see it being possible for someone no matter how talented to race the Olympics, 70.3 worlds and Kona and expect to be able to win them all.

Crowie is the only man in history that I understand to have done the double of 70.3 and Kona and that's without the Olympics in the mix 

Iden would be the best chance. Though we thought that about AB. AB could have done it but like macca didn't respect the demands of the race and thought he was going to lay down the hurt.

As Norman and Faris said, Macca worked out how to draft then he won

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Aidan said:

If you exclude 1978 (first race), then: 

1979 Tom Warren (first ever Ironman)

1980 Dave Scott (first ever Ironman),

1996 Luc van Lierde (first ever Ironman)

Luc doesn't count though :)

  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is everyone talking up Iden? Correct me if I'm wrong, but he hasn't done done an Ironman and only done 2 70.3s, winning one, coming 2nd in the other. Obviously he is World Champ and not wanting to take away anything from him, but he had a bit of luck in that race.

According to him his TT bike was a pile of crap, so he rode his road bike. But really that should have been the choice for most, road bike with clip on bars, 2 - 3kg lighter than most TT bikes, much better for ascending and descending. You could see the difference in exertion between Brownlee and Iden, Brownlee looked f**ked as he was climbing off the saddle, Iden looked like he was on a coffee ride. So really that race was decided when Iden opted for a road bike. He's world champion, he fully deserves it, the others messed up by going for TT bikes. Not his fault. But that needs to be factored in when looking at him as a potential Kona winner.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, zed said:

Why is everyone talking up Iden? Correct me if I'm wrong, but he hasn't done done an Ironman and only done 2 70.3s, winning one, coming 2nd in the other. Obviously he is World Champ and not wanting to take away anything from him, but he had a bit of luck in that race.

According to him his TT bike was a pile of crap, so he rode his road bike. But really that should have been the choice for most, road bike with clip on bars, 2 - 3kg lighter than most TT bikes, much better for ascending and descending. You could see the difference in exertion between Brownlee and Iden, Brownlee looked f**ked as he was climbing off the saddle, Iden looked like he was on a coffee ride. So really that race was decided when Iden opted for a road bike. He's world champion, he fully deserves it, the others messed up by going for TT bikes. Not his fault. But that needs to be factored in when looking at him as a potential Kona winner.

Also won the daytona 100 or whatever it was....

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, zed said:

Why is everyone talking up Iden? Correct me if I'm wrong, but he hasn't done done an Ironman and only done 2 70.3s, winning one, coming 2nd in the other. Obviously he is World Champ and not wanting to take away anything from him, but he had a bit of luck in that race.

According to him his TT bike was a pile of crap, so he rode his road bike. But really that should have been the choice for most, road bike with clip on bars, 2 - 3kg lighter than most TT bikes, much better for ascending and descending. You could see the difference in exertion between Brownlee and Iden, Brownlee looked f**ked as he was climbing off the saddle, Iden looked like he was on a coffee ride. So really that race was decided when Iden opted for a road bike. He's world champion, he fully deserves it, the others messed up by going for TT bikes. Not his fault. But that needs to be factored in when looking at him as a potential Kona winner.

Hmmmn. I don’t know about any of that actually. I get the idea of a road bike plus clip ons being a better option than TT bikes on hilly courses, but I’m not sure of the actual evidence that supports it. Nice has climbs, but even though its through the foothills of the Maritime Alps I’m not sure the parcours are that significant to ditch the TT bike. 

Besides, given what Iden did on a pancake course to the best field of 2020 in Challenge Daytona there’s another reason to doubt the ‘it was the road bike wot won it’ theory. I just think he’s a superior athlete and has been for the past 18 months. I’m not sure that automatically translates to Ironman success. Especially in Kona, but if and when he commits two Ironman you’d expect him to win there a bunch of times, even if it takes a couple of years to perfect his Ironman race craft first (which it may not. There are many factors at play). I doubt that 2021 will be his year though - assuming that Tokyo Olympics goes ahead he’d have to be one of the red hot favourites wouldn’t he? If he backs up 9 weeks later in Kona I’m not sure he’d be prepared specifically for anything other than the experience. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

Hmmmn. I don’t know about any of that actually. I get the idea of a road bike plus clip ons being a better option than TT bikes on hilly courses, but I’m not sure of the actual evidence that supports it. Nice has climbs, but even though its through the foothills of the Maritime Alps I’m not sure the parcours are that significant to ditch the TT bike. 

Besides, given what Iden did on a pancake course to the best field of 2020 in Challenge Daytona there’s another reason to doubt the ‘it was the road bike wot won it’ theory. I just think he’s a superior athlete and has been for the past 18 months. I’m not sure that automatically translates to Ironman success. Especially in Kona, but if and when he commits two Ironman you’d expect him to win there a bunch of times, even if it takes a couple of years to perfect his Ironman race craft first (which it may not. There are many factors at play). I doubt that 2021 will be his year though - assuming that Tokyo Olympics goes ahead he’d have to be one of the red hot favourites wouldn’t he? If he backs up 9 weeks later in Kona I’m not sure he’d be prepared specifically for anything other than the experience. 

I doubt a draft legal race will suit him, so doubt he will be a factor in the olympics. I would expect in 3-5 years time, we will see some great battles between AB and Iden at Kona but there will also be some other rising stars coming through. I think, unless they revamp the ITU races like what they did at Daytona, the Olympic distance will be a dinosaur thus more and more short course athletes will step up to ironman. 

Edited by Prince
Link to post
Share on other sites

But isn't draft legal racing what he normally does?  He's, like, 24.  Tonnes of time to succeed at all formats of racing.

Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, goughy said:

But isn't draft legal racing what he normally does?  He's, like, 24.  Tonnes of time to succeed at all formats of racing.

he has had a few wins in a sub average fields in itu. he is far better in non-draft racing IMO.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

Hmmmn. I don’t know about any of that actually. I get the idea of a road bike plus clip ons being a better option than TT bikes on hilly courses, but I’m not sure of the actual evidence that supports it. Nice has climbs, but even though its through the foothills of the Maritime Alps I’m not sure the parcours are that significant to ditch the TT bike. 

Besides, given what Iden did on a pancake course to the best field of 2020 in Challenge Daytona there’s another reason to doubt the ‘it was the road bike wot won it’ theory. I just think he’s a superior athlete and has been for the past 18 months. I’m not sure that automatically translates to Ironman success. Especially in Kona, but if and when he commits two Ironman you’d expect him to win there a bunch of times, even if it takes a couple of years to perfect his Ironman race craft first (which it may not. There are many factors at play). I doubt that 2021 will be his year though - assuming that Tokyo Olympics goes ahead he’d have to be one of the red hot favourites wouldn’t he? If he backs up 9 weeks later in Kona I’m not sure he’d be prepared specifically for anything other than the experience. 

That 70.3 worlds was hilly and at that time he was a relative unknown so road the venge. Think he has Giant TT now (not that that will make him any faster 😀)

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Prince said:

I doubt a draft legal race will suit him, so doubt he will be a factor in the olympics

Huh? Didn’t he place fourth in the ITU World Series Grand Finale the week before winning the 70.3 championship in Nice in 2019? Also 4th in the Olympic test event the month before in Tokyo? When he was 23. He’ll be 25 at then time of the olympics and probably at his peak for draft legal Olympic distance racing. Last season the ITU only ran sprint races and he raced 4 times for places between 3rd and 11th. He also won a number of World Cup races back in 2017 and 18. I’d put him in my top 4 picks for a medal in Tokyo if the Olympics go ahead and he races uninjured. 

Edited by Andrew #1
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Prince said:

he has had a few wins in a sub average fields in itu. he is far better in non-draft racing IMO.

4th in the last two major races that the ITU ran over the Olympic distance before covid - the Olympic test event and grand finale in Lausanne actually. The best of the best raced at each. Just saying.

Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

Huh? Didn’t he place fourth in the ITU World Series Grand Finale the week before winning the 70.3 championship in Nice in 2019? Also 4th in the Olympic test event the month before in Tokyo? When he was 23. He’ll be 25 at then time of the olympics and probably at his peak for draft legal Olympic distance racing. Last season the ITU only ran sprint races and he raced 4 times for places between 3rd and 11th. He also won a number of World Cup races back in 2017 and 18. I’d put him in my top 4 picks for a medal in Tokyo if the Olympics go ahead and he races uninjured. 

nah, too many ahead of him.  Luis didn't race at Tokyo. I would even back AB ahead of him. 

Edited by Prince
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it would be silly to discount Iden. It's not what he wins but the way he wins it.  I'd love to see Ali be a force but I can't shake the feeling that the sun is setting on his brilliant career.  I really don't think he's found his niche since leaving ITU and not convinced he really will now. (hope I'm wrong!)

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Ironnerd said:

Hey Peter you need to change the topic title to:

So Ironnerd said Iden will win kona in 2021

No one cares what Macca thinks about Jan😀

Or 

Andrew number one drops Cam for Iden 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Gee - I thought Ali learnt a lot at Kona, took those learnings and crushed Ironman WA. I would’t dismiss just yet. 
I wouldn’t write anyone off - especially Iden. Gomez dismantled a few world champ 70.3 fields and is yet to convert to Ironman, I’d just keep the the Iden will crush ironman in check for now. Frodo completely destroyed the field 15 months ago and would have had his best year in injury management. Sanders race at Daytona was outstanding; I had written him off for Kona but he will be a podium again in next 3-4 years. Lange would be there working on. Ike strength since last Kona, will Sebi’s year off had a few injuries I’m sure he will be at pointy end. Skipper, Currie, TO, Hansen, that Danish dude, Gomez,  etc etc 
It excites me thinking about it - getting a race this year with them all fit would be awesome again. 
 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Prince said:

nah, too many ahead of him.  Luis didn't race at Tokyo. I would even back AB ahead of him. 

Both Luis and AB are in my top 4 picks for Tokyo as well. Along with Blumenthal. Iden will be two years older in Tokyo this year than he was at the test event. My next picks - on the next row of favouritism for a medal - include Jake and the Spaniards. 
 

Iden has clearly matured as an athlete since then, and I’m reminded about what Alistair Brownlee said back in 2009 about the difference in his performance that year (when he won everything) as compared to the Beijing Olympics (where he finished 8th?); he’d grown into his big boy legs. I think Iden’ s progression over the past two years is a very good example of the same thing. 

Edited by Andrew #1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think Iden will really shine at full distance until he quits the short course game. I think, like Gomez stepping up to a 70.3 isn't too difficult, but stepping up to full distance is another story. 

Sanders will never win Kona. He's doesn't swim or run good enough to win now, the sport have moved on and he's kind of a bit behind. His workload and workethic are second to none, but he didn't get the good end of technique/economy for triathlon.

Lange might be done, will the guys really let him win again like he has in the past? 

Jan may never win again, but you never know now he's had enough time to really rest. But I do fear that rest might see him come back like Crowie after 40, will still get around really well, but wont be training as much whilst just enjoying himself and will slow a little with age. 

AB, dude is just injured all the time and I personally don't think he has the mental game for IM. He's a complete machine, but is impatient and maybe pushes too hard a lot of the time on the bike (fun to watch, but maybe not the best thing to actually get races and wins under the belt). Great race controller in the short stuff, but long course doesnt work like that. 

Gomez is like the swiss army knife, can go well at any distance but at the same time is no longer boss at any particular distance. Will never win kona. 

I mean at the end of the day PJ is really still the dark horse :lol:

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Iden stated on the Greg Bennet Pod that the reason he rode the road bike at Nice was that his TT bike didnt have fully functioning brakes. He had ridden it at another  70.3 that I presume was Bahrain, which essentially didnt need brakes. He stated that if he had 2 fully working bikes he would 100% have used the TT, even with hindsight, and he thinks a TT with lower gearing was the best option.

 

Interesting that the majority of the Tri world think he won it because he was on a roadie, but he himself didnt want to ride, it, and still think a TT was a better option.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, The new guy said:

Interesting that the majority of the Tri world think he won it because he was on a roadie

The majority of the tri world knows shit. The professionals all get detailed advice from their equipment providers. None of them would have been saying ‘ride a road bike’ on the Nice Course. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, The new guy said:

Iden stated on the Greg Bennet Pod that the reason he rode the road bike at Nice was that his TT bike didnt have fully functioning brakes. He had ridden it at another  70.3 that I presume was Bahrain, which essentially didnt need brakes. He stated that if he had 2 fully working bikes he would 100% have used the TT, even with hindsight, and he thinks a TT with lower gearing was the best option.

 

Interesting that the majority of the Tri world think he won it because he was on a roadie, but he himself didnt want to ride, it, and still think a TT was a better option.

2 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

The majority of the tri world knows shit. The professionals all get detailed advice from their equipment providers. None of them would have been saying ‘ride a road bike’ on the Nice Course. 

equipment providers who couldn't provide a TT bike with functioning brakes? Iden's story sounds a tad bizarre! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, dazaau said:

equipment providers who couldn't provide a TT bike with functioning brakes? Iden's story sounds a tad bizarre! 

 

I doubt he had a product provider for the ITT bike at the time - given he was riding his ITU racing specialised Venge and his ITT that he used in Bahrain was a Giant (I think).

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Peter changed the title to So Ironnerd said Iden will win kona in 2021

×
×
  • Create New...