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IJ - that was pretty good re. Suspension. 

On China, whether we like or not as a country they are our ticket of this longer term. Iron ore, grains and oilseeds and other commodity demand has been strong last months with solid exports for coming 6-10 months. Gives me confidence in this whole thing, especially given AUD. 

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Swab result - Covid negative. Just a coincidental illness. Means I can leave the house! Hooray! Have cancelled ambulance shift for Sunday because still feeling under the weather but back out again nex

On behalf of everyone else here on Trannies (apologies to those who I purport to be speaking for who don't share my view), mate, would you mind putting a lid on your intentionally inflammatory comment

Thought I'd check in with you all. Have to say I'm struggling a bit with redundancy, the virus and its knock on effects. Trying to stay positive but feeling quite 'isolated' over here now and starting

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1 minute ago, Bosco said:

IJ - that was pretty good re. Suspension. 

On China, whether we like or not as a country they are our ticket of this longer term. Iron ore, grains and oilseeds and other commodity demand has been strong last months with solid exports for coming 6-10 months. Gives me confidence in this whole thing, especially given AUD. 

and coal.   dont forget that evil stuff. 

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Good to hear from you Ian. 
sorry to hear things are tough at the moment. We may be a long way away but we are all still here for you mate. 

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Yesterday was a lovely, sunny Dundee spring day so I headed off on my bike into the countryside. Well, life couldn't have been better. Barely any traffic, every cyclist I came across was beaming with happiness and saying "Great day for it!" Saw hawks, squirrels, took a couple of sneaky KOMS that would be difficult to get in traffic. This morning we sat in the bay window overlooking the garden and watched the neighbour doing burpees - there's always a downside to every story 😫

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11 hours ago, more said:

Nah, he is just scrambling for any excuse under the sun. Doesn't believe there is even a crisis-he must not read the news.., he is joking a round laughing like there is nothing wrong. All the while we have employees stressed out of their brains. I have one lady who can work from home, lives with her 81 year old mother and is on the verge of tears yet he wont let her work from home...disgusting.

I don't and in massive irony, living in the USA, a relative in Oz has it.

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14 hours ago, Peter said:

On SEN today they claim each week they don’t play they lose 13 million dollars in broadcast rights.  Sadly the interviewer never expanded on this. Ie from fox? Overseas?  
 

and if they don’t play the will lose about 500 million all up.  
 

id say their end game is an insurance claim on revenue lost if that’s possible and why they are waiting for the government to make the decision for them.  

As Thousands of small businesses quickly found out insurance doesn’t cover quarantined diseases

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UK have just announced stricter measures.  

No gatherings of more than two, unless in the same household. One form of exercise a day. (although it doesn't state how long). All non essential shops to close from tonight. No commuting unless absolutely essential.

Will be on force for at least 3weeks.

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1 minute ago, FatPom said:

UK have just announced stricter measures.  

No gatherings of more than two, unless in the same household. One for of exercise a day. (although it doesn't state how long). All non essential shops to close from tonight. No commuting unless absolutely essential.

Will be on force for at least 3weeks.

Take care FP, Mrs FP & little FP xx

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3 minutes ago, FatPom said:

UK have just announced stricter measures.  

No gatherings of more than two, unless in the same household. One for of exercise a day. (although it doesn't state how long). All non essential shops to close from tonight. No commuting unless absolutely essential.

Will be on force for at least 3weeks.

One for of exercise a day.

What does this bit mean, I'm assuming we will be getting stricter over here (US)

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3 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

One for of exercise a day.

What does this bit mean, I'm assuming we will be getting stricter over here (US)

It means another thousands of bankrupt businesses and a tripling of the unemployment numbers. 

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1 minute ago, Surfer said:

Take care FP, Mrs FP & little FP xx

Thanks Surfer, worrying times alright.

One thing we've been focussing on is that we don't lose sight of what we want to do when this is all over.

I'm definitely going to adopt a much more 'keep fit but have fun' attitude. More bike packing, less racing, more trail running and stopping to admire the view. More family trail walks and of course, more surfing with the Little One :)  We've been watching this film, as a form of distraction. It has motorbikes and waves, what else do you need!

 

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15 hours ago, Peter said:

On SEN today they claim each week they don’t play they lose 13 million dollars in broadcast rights.  Sadly the interviewer never expanded on this. Ie from fox? Overseas?  
 

and if they don’t play the will lose about 500 million all up.  

I don't mind the NRL but I would love them to see a bit of pain. They should be managing there budgets better like the rest of us have to!

Didn't they sell the last broadcast rights for a billion dollars or something stupid. .....where has that money gone.

 

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Agree FP & having something to look forward to always helps. Family in the UK are concerned about us here, when we chat its always " when this is over we can do, go etc "  It keeps the positive in front.

 

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We were going to do an Easter family lockdown in an AirBnB on the Central Coast, but the owner contacted us to say full refund if we pull the pin which he was recommending, so we have.  It makes sense.  Had 4 holidays booked this year (the most ever - 3 domestic, 1 NZ) and all look gone now.

By comparison, we are very lucky out here.  We both have jobs until at least Feb, our girls in Sydney don't have jobs that are immediately threatened, though 1 only just started a new job, so the old last on first off might get her yet.

Exercise will be windtrainer, road & MTB cycling, walk-running & we'll go to the UNE ovals for a strength circuit.  And of course fishing - I can drive for an hour to be in blissful solitude in the bush for a full day.

The retirement plans have been scuppered in a big way though.  Super & investments smashed.  Not even logging on to look now, too depressing.

What amazes me is the Australia seemed to have no grand plan in place for a pandemic like this.  Seem to be making it up as we go.  You'd have thought the Govts would have had a plan on the shelf decades ago?

On the plus side, when we come out the other side of this, we will be much better prepared next time & hopefully the f-wit panic buying crap will not happen again.

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David Koch going to town on the boat that docked and overnight added an additional 50 people to their list. 
 

still only 6 dead.  
 

I wonder how many ICU beds are being used for corona currently.  
 

I don’t get why tv isn’t showing footage of the disaster of 600 plus dying overnight in Italy.  
 

its time to shock people. 

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Walked the dog early.  The local gym that shut is doing outdoor classes in the park over the road from the complex.  
 

boxing with each other and rolling in the same grass. 
 

ffs. 

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We're having Bob Dylan appreciation week which started off with Scorcese's 'No Direction Home' a week ago. Finished reading Bob Dylan 'Chronicles volume 1' in Mallorca which set up a solid week of listening on Spotify as I worked from home. 'Oh Mercy' has emerged an outright favourite. Last night, rounded the week off with another Scorcese documentary masterpiece, 'The Last Waltz' - The Band's final concert at the Winterland Ballroom, San Fran. Has there ever been a better ensemble than The Band?!?! Apart from Radiohead, me thinks not.

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58 minutes ago, The Customer said:

We're having Bob Dylan appreciation week which started off with Scorcese's 'No Direction Home' a week ago. 

Yeah that was brilliant.  Have you seen Control (Joy Division movie)?

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1 hour ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

 What amazes me is the Australia seemed to have no grand plan in place for a pandemic like this.  Seem to be making it up as we go.  You'd have thought the Govts would have had a plan on the shelf decades ago?

 

Completely agree with this. And they had a second chance after seeing the impact in China a couple of months ago. It was obvious China had a plan when they could build their hospitals so quickly. 

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1 hour ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

 

What amazes me is the Australia seemed to have no grand plan in place for a pandemic like this.  Seem to be making it up as we go.  You'd have thought the Govts would have had a plan on the shelf decades ago?

On the plus side, when we come out the other side of this, we will be much better prepared next time & hopefully the f-wit panic buying crap will not happen again.

People have far to much faith in our leaders (both sides of politics..) who are in power for no other qualification other than they are the best at talking shit, spinning lies and handing cash out to marginal seats to buy votes

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1 minute ago, more said:

People have far to much faith in our leaders (both sides of politics..) who are in power for no other qualification other than they are the best at talking shit, spinning lies and handing cash out to marginal seats to buy votes

This.

And what's the good of a plan when nobody does what they are supposed to do when they tell us anyway?

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What is frustrating is we have a head start, we have an advantage. We can look at other countries and see how the virus has spread, see how dangerous it is and the impact it has on the health systems. We can see how poorly Italy is coping and note the draconian measures now being implemented there, in the UK, NZ etc We should be following suit, now, not in 2 weeks when things go to shit. It's like Italy was the test pilot, now we know what the deal is, we can act accordingly. And we're not. 

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3 minutes ago, zed said:

What is frustrating is we have a head start, we have an advantage. We can see how poorly Italy is coping an the draconian measures now being implemented there, in the UK, NZ etc We should be following suit, now, not in 2 weeks when things go to shit.

Yep, should be full shut down right now, why in the f wait??

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7 minutes ago, more said:

Yep, should be full shut down right now, why in the f wait??

maybe because its a huge decision that will have irreversible effects on peoples lives with no proven success.

Has it reduced the amount of lives lost in Italy?????

 

We are almost in a shutdown anyway FFS. 

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Just now, Prince said:

maybe because its a huge decision that will have irreversible effects on peoples lives with no proven success.

Has it reduced the amount of lives lost in Italy?????

 

We are almost in a shutdown anyway FFS. 

In Italy the horse had already bolted. In Australia we are just following the same actions/plan as overseas but pretending we don't have the benefit of hindsight.

Why wait until we are past crisis point to do the inevitable, do it now and try to cut the virus off at the neck. 

Option 1-full shit down and essentially eliminate new cases

Option 2-wait until hundreds of thousands more infected, run hospitals past breaking point and then enact full shutdown

Which is the better option

 

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The governor here shut us down and is getting ripped for doing it on one hand and by others for not doing it fast enough.

NY is like a country on its own. While the rate of infection goes up, the recovery rate and death rate should start to move over the next few weeks.

If the recovery rate is to be believed that column should start coming up. Also as they are no treating and closing out those who have minor symptoms this may be under done.

We are drowning in data and rubbish headline grabbing reporting. We don't know when this first hit the western nations, though we can look at the Italian death rate spike and approximate it.

If we smooth the data from January it looks different though it makes no difference if you are dead.

We should look at this differently from the GFC and treat the health and the economics. Here is a thought as we are handing out money left right and centre which we should:

Pay people to stay at home, big business should look after its own with proper leave provisons and should also step up, not stand down peopl. Government can give them lots more tax concessions w=once we get to the end.

Just as we backed the banks in the GFC , guarantee payroll for all SME at a certain level.

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4 minutes ago, more said:

In Italy the horse had already bolted. In Australia we are just following the same actions/plan as overseas but pretending we don't have the benefit of hindsight.

Why wait until we are past crisis point to do the inevitable, do it now and try to cut the virus off at the neck. 

Option 1-full shit down and essentially eliminate new cases

Option 2-wait until hundreds of thousands more infected, run hospitals past breaking point and then enact full shutdown

Which is the better option

 

do 1

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cant say I have much faith in our political leaders.  However, I suppose we must give some value to the Chief Medical Officer and the panel of experts who are advising them.  Unfortunately in Science and Medicine, as in life, there is no agreement on best course of action.  I believe, and am probably wrong, that they are trying to balance best outcomes for both health and the economy.  I would far prefer them to go hard and early and for a shorter time, then dragging it out and trying to flatten the curve.  Doing this would give the elements of society who are "she'll be right mate" a kick in the backside.  The problem with comparing us to Italy is that even though they had a total shutdown is that the populace didnt take it seriously and continued to mingle in family groups - much larger generally than Australia = which exacerbated the spread. 

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Just got e-mail from work:

4 week shutdown, no pay, possible government package  

Going to be a long 4 weeks, especially with two young adults in house and only one kickr

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9 minutes ago, rory-dognz said:

Just got e-mail from work:

4 week shutdown, no pay, possible government package  

Going to be a long 4 weeks, especially with two young adults in house and only one kickr

Is the no pay part of the shutdown  mandated by the govt, ie cant use sick pay or leave etc. 

If so that takes the pressure off the companies but doesn't help folks buy food.

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5 minutes ago, roxii said:

Is the no pay part of the shutdown  mandated by the govt, ie cant use sick pay or leave etc. 

If so that takes the pressure off the companies but doesn't help folks buy food.

But government unemployment entitlements are fast tracked-its not bad, around $600 a week by memory per person

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3 minutes ago, more said:

But government unemployment entitlements are fast tracked-its not bad, around $600 a week by memory per person

Yeah, but are people like Rory who are "stood down" or "shut down" unemployed? 

If so are they then sacked and also then need to be paid all their entitlements? This could also send businesses broke if all done at once. 

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52 minutes ago, more said:

People have far to much faith in our leaders (both sides of politics..) who are in power for no other qualification other than they are the best at talking shit, spinning lies and handing cash out to marginal seats to buy votes

I could have sworn the hospitals had some grand plans in place re pandemics, but thought the govts would also have some key policy levers and quarantine rules ready to go.  But apparently not!

We are still in our offices (staff of 6, 4 here today - well separated) though have been told we can WFH if we wish.  Just picked up a big contract, so v busy.

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Just now, roxii said:

Yeah, but are people like Rory who are "stood down" or "shut down" unemployed? 

If so are they then sacked and also then need to be paid all their entitlements? This could also send businesses broke if all done at once. 

No doubt businesses are going to go broke, its going to be an absolute economic meltdown no matter which way you look at it. It will be a depression.

I'm pretty sure people like Rory are entitled to go on unemployment benefits.

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4 minutes ago, roxii said:

Yeah, but are people like Rory who are "stood down" or "shut down" unemployed? 

If so are they then sacked and also then need to be paid all their entitlements? This could also send businesses broke if all done at once. 

I would love to know this too.

My wife is stood down.  The payroll lady rang and said she can use annual leave, so at this stage we are using half her annual leave to just keep something coming in...wondering if would be better to just use it all then hit up the government.  With the revised job seeker package she would get more money on that than she did working anyway!

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3 minutes ago, Toolish said:

I would love to know this too.

My wife is stood down.  The payroll lady rang and said she can use annual leave, so at this stage we are using half her annual leave to just keep something coming in...wondering if would be better to just use it all then hit up the government.  With the revised job seeker package she would get more money on that than she did working anyway!

https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Fact_sheet-Income_Support_for_Individuals.pdf

The Government is providing support for individuals to assist them during the next six months. 
INCREASED AND ACCELERATED INCOME SUPPORT Summary 
The Government is temporarily expanding eligibility to income support payments and establishing a new, time-limited Coronavirus supplement to be paid at a rate of $550 per fortnight. This supplement will be paid to both existing and new recipients of the eligible payment categories. These changes will apply for the next six months.  
Eligibility 
Payment categories  
The income support payment categories eligible to receive the Coronavirus supplement are:  • Jobseeker Payment1 (and all payments progressively transitioning to JobSeeker Payment; those currently receiving Partner Allowance, Widow Allowance, Sickness Allowance and Wife Pension) • Youth Allowance Jobseeker • Parenting Payment (Partnered and Single) • Farm Household Allowance • Special Benefit recipients 
Anyone who is eligible for the Coronavirus supplement will receive the full rate of the supplement of $550 per fortnight. 
Expanded access 
For the period of the Coronavirus supplement, there will be expanded access to the income support payments listed above. • Expanded access: Jobseeker Payment and Youth Allowance Jobseeker criteria will provide payment access for permanent employees who are stood down or lose their employment; sole traders; the self-employed; casual workers; and contract workers who meet the income tests as a result of the economic downturn due to the Coronavirus. This could also include a person required to care for someone who is affected by the Coronavirus. • Reduced means testing: Asset testing for JobSeeker Payment, Youth Allowance Jobseeker and Parenting Payment will be waived for the period of the Coronavirus supplement. Income testing will still apply to the person’s other payments, consistent with current arrangements. • Reduced waiting times:   The one week Ordinary Waiting Period has already been waived. 
  

Example 
Leonie is in her mid-30s, with two dependent children aged 10 and 12 and works as a telephone consultant for a travel agency. The economic downturn due to Coronavirus has caused the travel agency where she works to close for a six month period, and resulted in Leonie’s hours being reduced to zero. Leonie will be eligible to apply for JobSeeker Payment and the Coronavirus supplement under the new streamlined process. 
Leonie can apply on-line and make a declaration about her identity, residency status, income and that she has had her hours reduced to zero as a result of the economic downturn due to Coronavirus. 
Leonie is eligible for Jobseeker Payment and will receive $1,171.50 per fortnight, comprising: • JobSeeker Payment single, with dependent child rate of $612.00 per fortnight; plus • Energy Supplement of $9.50 per fortnight; plus • Coronavirus supplement of $550 per fortnight. 
Leonie will also receive Family Tax Benefit Part A and Part B of $483 a fortnight. 

Having recently left employment, Leonie is already job ready. 
An employment service provider will look to match Leonie’s skills with available opportunities (for example, in another call centre) so Leonie’s skills can be used in another industry and Leonie can get another job quickly. 

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17 minutes ago, roxii said:

Is the no pay part of the shutdown  mandated by the govt, ie cant use sick pay or leave etc. 

If so that takes the pressure off the companies but doesn't help folks buy food.

First in NZ so different from you guys.

no details on pay yet, as company still working it out. Government has package that can apply for either individually or company but don't have details. I have only been there 4 weeks so no significant leave balance.

will be okay as we are financially good, will just use last years redundancy to see us through. 
 

up side is company is sound and once lockdown over has orders and will be okay

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51 minutes ago, more said:

In Italy the horse had already bolted. In Australia we are just following the same actions/plan as overseas but pretending we don't have the benefit of hindsight.

Why wait until we are past crisis point to do the inevitable, do it now and try to cut the virus off at the neck. 

Option 1-full shit down and essentially eliminate new cases

Option 2-wait until hundreds of thousands more infected, run hospitals past breaking point and then enact full shutdown

Which is the better option

 

And what if a shutdown has zero effect ?

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Just now, Prince said:

And what if a shutdown has zero effect ?

That's not the question though, the questions is whether we will go into a full shut down anyway and whether its better to do it earlier rather than later.

But a full shut down would have to limit the spread you would have thought..

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