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FLORIDA, 5:30 PM UPDATE

Republican: 4,210,984  (+203,533)
Democratic: 4,007,451 
NPA/Other: 2,559,542

TOTAL: 10,777,977

*Includes ALL mail + in-person early

This is good for trump. 

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A few posts of the last 24hrs have been deleted. I don't have time to go over the previous 96 pages.  If it's not adding value to the thread, discussing politics in a respectful manner towards th

The sandbox is for non Tri related topics.  It’s not a place for people to carry on like idiots. 

If the last few months have taught me anything it’s that when you peel back the thin veneer the US is a mighty screwed up place on oh so many fronts.   

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CNN has ran a poll that suggests the economy is the major issue for voters. 

Covid is a well distant third.  

IF that really is the case, Biden's campaign which mainly ran on Covid which may come back to bite him in his bony arse. 

Edited by Prince
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2 minutes ago, Peter said:

This is good for trump. 

That is very good news for Trump 

The generally accepted theory is that the Republicans will need a big turnout today to overcome the Democrat vote since they were expected to vote early.  But that suggests that Trump has a pre-poll lead

If correct, you can put a lot of that down to hispanic voters switching parties.  Florida has a lot of ex-Cubans and Venezuelans in particular, who well remember what socialism did to their countries (which is also why Bernie Sanders got hammered there in the primaries)

So nominating a VP whose voting record is even further to the left than Bernie might not have gone down too well in Florida 

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3 minutes ago, Prince said:

CNN has ran a poll that suggests the economy is the major issue for voters. 

Covid is a well distant third.  

IF that really is the case, Biden's campaign which mainly ran on Covid which may come back to bite him in his bony arse. 

Biden is also trying to blame Trump for the economic downturn though, which is of course absurd

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FLORIDA, 5:30 PM UPDATE

Republican: 4,210,984  (+203,533)
Democratic: 4,007,451 
NPA/Other: 2,559,542

TOTAL: 10,777,977

*Includes ALL mail + in-person early

 

Considering that there were 14million registered voters as at end of August 2020 those figures would indicate there aren't many left to count and the polls hadn't even closed

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4 minutes ago, Dave T said:

FLORIDA, 5:30 PM UPDATE

Republican: 4,210,984  (+203,533)
Democratic: 4,007,451 
NPA/Other: 2,559,542

TOTAL: 10,777,977

*Includes ALL mail + in-person early

 

Considering that there were 14million registered voters as at end of August 2020 those figures would indicate there aren't many left to count and the polls hadn't even closed

The 'NPA' figure (which I'm guessing means 'non-party affiliated) will decide it

I believe all those votes have already been counted, and will drop after the polls close at 11am our time 

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2 hours ago, more said:

Which country are you referring to? I worked a full-time job while I went to uni doing night school, and there are plenty (probably majority) of tradies with foreign or non Anglo surnames. 

If you look for an excuse to fail you will always find one.. 

USA, Australia, Northern Ireland etc...  Just because you worked while going to uni doesn't mean you weren't privileged.  The fact you had a job and that you had the opportunity to go to uni shows that you were one of he lucky ones.  You had the oppotunity, and you took it.  Admittedly, some have the opportunity and don't take it.  But everyone should have the opportunity.

There are some areas in the US (and likely Australia) that are very very poor, where nobody is very educated and there are no jobs and opportunities in the area - if you grow up and live with people your whole life who aren't very educated, your family lives off welfare, the schools you go to are rough and pretty crap, nobody applies themselves, you don't see any opportunities around you, the likelihood of you being able to pull yourself up by the bootstraps is very very low.

Part of the whole problem in NI (back to this again!  sorry...) was a civil rights issue.  People would send in their CVs for jobs, and with a name like MacCarthy (screams catholic) there would be zero chance of getting an interview never mind a job...

My point is, there are lots and lots of things that make you, or I, privileged in comparison to someone else...

53 minutes ago, Bored@work said:

I think the point she is trying to make is all 10 had an option. In some countries getting a job is like winning the lottery. 

^^^ and this

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5 minutes ago, BogFrog said:

USA, Australia, Northern Ireland etc...  Just because you worked while going to uni doesn't mean you weren't privileged.  The fact you had a job and that you had the opportunity to go to uni shows that you were one of he lucky ones.  You had the oppotunity, and you took it.  Admittedly, some have the opportunity and don't take it.  But everyone should have the opportunity.

There are some areas in the US (and likely Australia) that are very very poor, where nobody is very educated and there are no jobs and opportunities in the area - if you grow up and live with people your whole life who aren't very educated, your family lives off welfare, the schools you go to are rough and pretty crap, nobody applies themselves, you don't see any opportunities around you, the likelihood of you being able to pull yourself up by the bootstraps is very very low.

Part of the whole problem in NI (back to this again!  sorry...) was a civil rights issue.  People would send in their CVs for jobs, and with a name like MacCarthy (screams catholic) there would be zero chance of getting an interview never mind a job...

My point is, there are lots and lots of things that make you, or I, privileged in comparison to someone else...

^^^ and this

How do you fix that without penalising other people? 

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41 minutes ago, BogFrog said:

USA, Australia, Northern Ireland etc...  Just because you worked while going to uni doesn't mean you weren't privileged.  The fact you had a job and that you had the opportunity to go to uni shows that you were one of he lucky ones.  You had the oppotunity, and you took it.  Admittedly, some have the opportunity and don't take it.  But everyone should have the opportunity.

There are some areas in the US (and likely Australia) that are very very poor, where nobody is very educated and there are no jobs and opportunities in the area - if you grow up and live with people your whole life who aren't very educated, your family lives off welfare, the schools you go to are rough and pretty crap, nobody applies themselves, you don't see any opportunities around you, the likelihood of you being able to pull yourself up by the bootstraps is very very low.

 

And by constantly reinforcing into their minds that they have no chance because they don't have 'privilege what incentive do they have to work hard-you have already defeated them. 

And I take exception at you saying I was 'lucky'. Sure I'm lucky to be born in Australia, but that aside my luck has all been a result of hard work.

I agree the cycle is very hard to break, people just don't get it. I see it all the time at work-people from a low socio economic background will typically (not always..) leave at 5 on the dot and do anything they can to avoid doing any extra work-they are against 'the man' and see any additional time should be paid, even to the minute.

Then on the other hand you have those from more 'privilleged'  backgrounds work late, work weekends, do whatever ever is required. They quickly advance up the ranks, and make more money. Johny clocking out at 5 looks at Jeff who has succeeded and sees a result of privilege, ignoring all the hard work and sacrifice Jeff has put in..

edit-as an example I worked yesterday morning on a public holiday (for 'free') and since 3am this morning...

Edited by more
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Early Florida numbers are in, representing 44% of the vote.  Biden is ahead 51.1 - 48.1.  I would imagine he would have wanted to be significantly further ahead than that

Interestingly Hillary got nearly 64% of the vote in Miami-Dade county in 2016, and still lost.  Biden's current lead is 54.2 - 45.3

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"Some good news for Donald Trump in Miami-Dade County, a Democratic stronghold in Florida, with 84 per cent of the vote counted.

Joe Biden is currently leading 54-45 there. Hillary Clinton won the county 54-34 in 2016. If Mr Biden doesn't make up the difference, it'll spell big trouble for him."

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3 minutes ago, more said:

"Some good news for Donald Trump in Miami-Dade County, a Democratic stronghold in Florida, with 84 per cent of the vote counted.

Joe Biden is currently leading 54-45 there. Hillary Clinton won the county 54-34 in 2016. If Mr Biden doesn't make up the difference, it'll spell big trouble for him."

Educate me here. Biden leading 54-45...Isn't that a win for Biden.... or heading that way

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Just now, IronmanFoz said:

Educate me here. Biden leading 54-45...Isn't that a win for Biden.... or heading that way

Its a part of Florida state-a typical Dem stronghold, so he needs a big gap there to win Florida.

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1 minute ago, more said:

Its a part of Florida state-a typical Dem stronghold, so he needs a big gap there to win Florida.

Yep.  It's total votes across the state that matter, but if traditionally blue areas are not quite as strong as expected its a useful indicator

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Biden's vote in Florida is now 50.3%, and they haven't even started counting the traditionally red panhandle yet.   NYT says 96% chance for Trump to win the state

Interesting Virginia has been called for Biden despite Trump leading by six points...

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18 minutes ago, more said:

Must be those pesky republicans the MSM have been warning us about that are going to burn down the cities if Trump looses...

 

PSnPcGV.jpg

Or it's left over building material from a construction site. Someone has taken a photo & posted it online to try and get likes & troll people. 

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1 hour ago, more said:

And by constantly reinforcing into their minds that they have no chance because they don't have 'privilege what incentive do they have to work hard-you have already defeated them. 

I don't believe this at all.  We need to recognise our privilege.  I am totally privileged and I recognise that I have had an advantage in life above a lot of people.  There are other people who have even more of an advantage than I have, but it hasn't stopped me - because I have the privilege to have been given the tools that I need to get what I want.

1 hour ago, more said:

And I take exception at you saying I was 'lucky'. Sure I'm lucky to be born in Australia, but that aside my luck has all been a result of hard work.

Luck has nothing to do with hard work.  You can work hard all your life and be unlucky.  You can also not work hard and be lucky...

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4 minutes ago, Bored@work said:

Or it's left over building material from a construction site. Someone has taken a photo & posted it online to try and get likes & troll people. 

Yep its been debunked. Cant pretend that Antifa wont be having fun either way tonight...

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Breaking Trump wins Florida!

The President’s home state, which comes with 29 electoral votes, was a must-win if he is to reach the magic number 270.

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3 minutes ago, more said:

Breaking Trump wins Florida!

The President’s home state, which comes with 29 electoral votes, was a must-win if he is to reach the magic number 270.

Worst ROI of Mike Bloomberg's life, given that he spent $100 million on pro-Biden ads there

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"Politico reporter Marc Caputo shared a text message from a top Miami Democrat, citing the backlash to Black Lives Matter.

“We must have gotten obliterated by Hispanics,” they wrote.

“Defund the police killed us. We came out strong for BLM and then saw the Hispanic pushback and went lukewarm and got killed with both (demographics).”

 

I wonder if there will be a backlash against defund the police in other places that have had their cities smashed up...?

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Prince said:

anyone know who is actually winning. The discrepancy of results is amazing....

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=storyline_menu_recirc

It seems if Trump holds these three then it will drag on for a while, and that is looking not unlikely. 

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4 minutes ago, dazaau said:

Interesting that the link shows a black vote swing toward Trump...

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2 minutes ago, dazaau said:

so, it seems really really close.  i have Trump winning Florida. Not sure if that has been called though. He has also come back strong in Texas and though early days, i have him leading strongly in Wisconsin. 

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Just now, Prince said:

so, it seems really really close.  i have Trump winning Florida. Not sure if that has been called though. He has also come back strong in Texas and though early days, i have him leading strongly in Wisconsin. 

Florida was called about an hour ago

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2 minutes ago, more said:

Interesting that the link shows a black vote swing toward Trump...

And massive swings towards Trump among Hispanics, particularly Cubans 

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9 minutes ago, more said:

Florida was called about an hour ago

depends what outlet. Most aren't calling it. NYT is is aying florida is 95% likely to go to to Trump with a bigger margin that last election but still have it as too close to call. Fox news have these probability meters which appear to be totally stuffed ha ha. 

And new mexico has been called with 0% of the votes counted :D 

Edited by dazaau
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Trump has now caused down an early deficit in Ohio and is now leading.  He's also closing in in Pennsylvania and North Carolina

Lots of close states atm, the next hour or so will be very interesting 

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How nervous would this guy be..

"Over in the UK, a British businessman is so confident Trump will win that he has placed a record breaking bet on the president staying in the White House.

The mystery former banker used private bookies registered in the Caribbean to place a bet of $5 million ($A6.97m), with odds of 37/20, on Trump’s win, according to The Sun.

If he is successful, the businessman could be taking home almost $15 million ($A20.9m)."

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Pennsylvania is extremely close - it was leaning towards Biden last time I looked but just swung towards Trump a little.

I was speaking with a Pennsylvania resident last week, he's a life long conservative and die hard Trump supporter, he was sure Trump would lose but he might be pleasantly surprised.

 

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5 minutes ago, more said:

How nervous would this guy be..

"Over in the UK, a British businessman is so confident Trump will win that he has placed a record breaking bet on the president staying in the White House.

The mystery former banker used private bookies registered in the Caribbean to place a bet of $5 million ($A6.97m), with odds of 37/20, on Trump’s win, according to The Sun.

If he is successful, the businessman could be taking home almost $15 million ($A20.9m)."

Less nervous by the minute, I'd say

Trump is now barely ahead in PA

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Richio has now called the election toTrump  after declaring Biden would win earlier.  
he is looking about the same now as he did when Scomo won....like he wants to jump in front of the nearest bus. 

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Funny day on the stock market.  markets jumped when it thought Biden would win, then sank when it looked like it was going to be close, and now clawing back with the idea of a Trump victory. 

Edited by Cat Lady
clawing not crawling
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3 minutes ago, Cat Lady said:

Funny day on the stock market.  markets jumped when it thought Biden would win, then sank when it looked like it was going to be close, and now clawing back with the idea of a Trump victory. 

I guess markets hate uncertainty. They just want a clear win I guess. 

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31 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Trump has now caused down an early deficit in Ohio and is now leading.  He's also closing in in Pennsylvania and North Carolina

Lots of close states atm, the next hour or so will be very interesting 

They keep saying on abc America that I’m watching that the early vote was blue but the in person voting is clearly republican.   
 

For all those outspoken people in the media and celebrities talking up how crap trump is, the general public don’t agree.  It should have been a whitewash for Biden if they were speaking for the American public. 
 

yet its super Close. 
 

once again proving POLLS are total shit and don’t tell the story. 

Edited by Peter
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Just now, Peter said:

They keep saying on abc America that I’m watching that the early vote was blue but the in person voting is clearly republican.   
 

For all those outspoken people in the media and celebrities and media talking up how crap trump is, the general public don’t agree.  It should have been a whitewash for Biden if they were speaking for the American public. 
 

yet its super Close. 
 

once again proving POLLS are total shit and don’t tell the story. 

Is it surprising the polls are wrong when people are virtually ostracized for showing any support for Trump or conservative views....Its easier to just nod your head and agree and let your vote do the talking...the noisy minority?

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1 minute ago, dazaau said:

I guess markets hate uncertainty. They just want a clear win I guess. 

Well they're going to be pretty volatile for the next few days.

IF Pennsylvania ends up deciding the whole thing, it could take DAYS to count all the absentee votes.

Most battleground States are impossible to call at the moment.

Eg Ohio. With 74% of votes counted, Trump leads 52/47. But with the 3-C's ( Columbus, Cleveland & Cincinnati) having a smaller % of those key urban votes counted which could favour Biden.

"Red mirage" in Michigan,  Wisconsin & Pennsylvania at this point in time.

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16 minutes ago, more said:

Is it surprising the polls are wrong when people are virtually ostracized for showing any support for Trump or conservative views....Its easier to just nod your head and agree and let your vote do the talking...the noisy minority?

They are telephone polls

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