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18 hours ago, more said:

Might have to stick some money on Trumpy, $2.05 is looking a lot more enticing!

And getting more enticing for you by the day. The market average for Trump to win the election have slipped again today. That’s 12 consecutive days his odds have slipped and 11 consecutive days Biden’s have shortened.

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The sandbox is for non Tri related topics.  It’s not a place for people to carry on like idiots. 

If the last few months have taught me anything it’s that when you peel back the thin veneer the US is a mighty screwed up place on oh so many fronts.   

A few posts of the last 24hrs have been deleted. I don't have time to go over the previous 96 pages.  If it's not adding value to the thread, discussing politics in a respectful manner towards th

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9 minutes ago, Mike Del said:

And getting more enticing for you by the day. The market average for Trump to win the election have slipped again today. That’s 12 consecutive days his odds have slipped and 11 consecutive days Biden’s have shortened.

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Thanks Mike, I know it's wishful thinking for you but history should tell you when it comes to elections the bookies have zero idea, like literally zero. Both Scomo and Trump were written off with having zero chance of winning, how did that turn out? 

But yes, I might wait a day or two and see if I can get $2.10 and then I'll chuck a fiddy on him 👍will have to check when the debates are because without a teleprompter my guess is Biden is going to get obliterated and the odds will swing. 

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I have my opinions on Trump but if any on here get a chance to watch last Monday’s Q&A on IView, which was very equally balanced on both sides.

It highlighted the confusion and divisiveness in the whole debate, with former Republican staff anti Trump and former Democrat staff pro Trump.

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1 hour ago, more said:

Thanks Mike, I know it's wishful thinking for you but history should tell you when it comes to elections the bookies have zero idea, like literally zero. Both Scomo and Trump were written off with having zero chance of winning, how did that turn out? 

But yes, I might wait a day or two and see if I can get $2.10 and then I'll chuck a fiddy on him 👍will have to check when the debates are because without a teleprompter my guess is Biden is going to get obliterated and the odds will swing. 

History has shown the bookies have zero idea hey lol. 

1st debate is Sep 29

 

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32 minutes ago, Mike Del said:

History has shown the bookies have zero idea hey lol. 

1st debate is Sep 29

 

The bookies offered $1.10 on Labor and Hillary was - 300, meaning you would have had to bet 300 just to get 100 back. 

I'm not sure what planet you live on that suggests the bookies were even close to getting the last two elections right...? 

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This was funny.. Just 15 days out from the 2016 election 

"Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero" 

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/donald-trumps-chances-of-winning-are-approaching-zero/%3foutputType=amp

And yet people still pay attention to polls and bookies as if they are gospel? 

 

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These guys went all out, not approaching zero, they actually said zero lol

"Election Analytics, a student-run STEM lab that uses polling data and sophisticated algorithms to predict presidential races, has Clinton's chances of winning at 100%. Clinton hit the 100% mark last night when her odds were increased from 99.98%. It's the first time during the election that Election Analytics has put Donald Trump's chances of winning at 0%."

 

When emotions get in the way of rational thought and reality... 

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They couldn't even get the odds of him being elected to the GOP right.. From CNN... 

"Think Trump has a chance to snag GOP nomination? Analysis gives him just 1%" 

So yeah Mike, excuse me if I don't take any small swings in odds as some kind of reliable indication of a result ;)

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34 minutes ago, Mike Del said:

History has shown the bookies have zero idea hey lol. 

 

Well, yes

That's how I got $7.50 odds for ScoMo on the morning of last year's election 

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3 hours ago, more said:

The bookies offered $1.10 on Labor and Hillary was - 300, meaning you would have had to bet 300 just to get 100 back. 

I'm not sure what planet you live on that suggests the bookies were even close to getting the last two elections right...? 

2018 Fed & 2016 US Presidential were the last two elections hey lol.

PS don’t google the betting agencies success rate at picking election winners, your zero idea comment will look pretty stupid.

Looks like I’ll need to pray a little harder for you More.

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2 minutes ago, Mike Del said:

2018 Fed & 2016 US Presidential were the last two elections hey lol.

PS don’t google the betting agencies success rate at picking election winners, your zero idea comment will look pretty stupid.

Looks like I’ll need to pray a little harder for you More.

You seem upset and overly emotionally invested Mike. No need to make it personal... 

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2 hours ago, Peter said:

Hillary was still favorite to win halfway through election counting last time with the bookies.  

That’s normal and will happen every time, it’s a different market and she was ahead in the count. Similar to in-game wagering during footy game, the team in the lead will almost always be shorter.

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6 minutes ago, Mike Del said:

That’s normal and will happen every time, she was ahead in the count. Similar to in-game wagering during footy game, the team in the lead will almost always be shorter.

So the bookies didn't get it horribly wrong? I don't understand why you are taking this so personally Mike, all we are pointing out is the bookies on the last Aus federal election and the last US Presidential election didn't just get it a little wrong, they could not have possibly got it more wrong. 

So how you think Trump going from $1.90 to $2.05 means much is...wishful thinking...? You are letting your emotions get in the way of reality 

 

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The funniest thing is either way I don't care-I'm not American so couldn't really give a sh!t, though I do find the whole thing fascinating. 

How Australians get so emotionally invested in a foreign election is beyond me.. 

 

 

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I think it will be pretty entertaining if he loses too.  He won't be walking away into the sunset.  He'll be noisy as all hell, one way or another.

How long after he's no longer president (whether 4 years later or not) will it take for Melania to file for divorce?

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3 hours ago, Peter said:

One of you will be right and the other wrong.  
 

get the popcorn ready. 

Right or wrong? I haven’t really picked a horse yet. Though if you look way back In this thread Peter you‘ll see I did say I think Trump will be re-elected

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13 hours ago, more said:

The funniest thing is either way I don't care-I'm not American so couldn't really give a sh!t, though I do find the whole thing fascinating. 

How Australians get so emotionally invested in a foreign election is beyond me.. 

I am similar, except that while ever America is seen as the "world leader" then I would like to see someone sensible and level headed at the helm, whichever colour they may be. Its almost like the need two leaders, one for internal politics and one for external politics as it seems like juggling the two is seemingly impossible. 

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59 minutes ago, roxii said:

I am similar, except that while ever America is seen as the "world leader" then I would like to see someone sensible and level headed at the helm, whichever colour they may be. Its almost like the need two leaders, one for internal politics and one for external politics as it seems like juggling the two is seemingly impossible. 

Agree. 

It's strange for me. I have friends who live in San Fran who hate Trump with a passion. 

I also have friends in Texas & Florida who support him. 

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Bored@work said:

Agree. 

It's strange for me. I have friends who live in San Fran who hate Trump with a passion. 

I also have friends in Texas & Florida who support him. 

 

 

 

if you asked you friends in San Fran why they hate Trump so much could they articulate it? Most people I ask basically get to the orange man bad, they cant really explain it. Which is fine, there is very little to like about the guy. But putting his personality to the side and lying (assuming all politicians lie) there is a strong argument he has done a good job as president?

Under Obama the U.S was certainly involved in more foreign conflicts and lost more lives and caused the death of far more civilians. The relationship with NK seems to have clamed a great deal, as has the threat of terrorism. Plus he has helped ease tension in the middle east and Balkans. The issues domestically seem to have been whipped up largely by the media and poorly democratic run states?

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21 minutes ago, more said:

if you asked you friends in San Fran why they hate Trump so much could they articulate it? Most people I ask basically get to the orange man bad, they cant really explain it. Which is fine, there is very little to like about the guy. But putting his personality to the side and lying (assuming all politicians lie) there is a strong argument he has done a good job as president?

Under Obama the U.S was certainly involved in more foreign conflicts and lost more lives and caused the death of far more civilians. The relationship with NK seems to have clamed a great deal, as has the threat of terrorism. Plus he has helped ease tension in the middle east and Balkans. The issues domestically seem to have been whipped up largely by the media and poorly democratic run states?

The narrative is all that matters.  Which is why the media cling to it so tightly regardless of any contrary evidence 

Again, it goes back to the excellent piece Katz posted a few weeks back on confirmation bias. All Bored's mates really know about Trump is that he is evil, so they will latch on to whatever evidence they get that supports that view and reject any evidence that might show otherwise

Likewise, his more fervent supporters will crawl over broken glass to support him, but there is little doubt that the left side is largely driven by pure hatred. Which is why polling has shown that 2/3rds of Trump's voters support the job he is doing, while 2/3rds of Biden voters just want to get rid of Trump

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2 hours ago, more said:

if you asked you friends in San Fran why they hate Trump so much could they articulate it? Most people I ask basically get to the orange man bad, they cant really explain it. Which is fine, there is very little to like about the guy. But putting his personality to the side and lying (assuming all politicians lie) there is a strong argument he has done a good job as president?

Under Obama the U.S was certainly involved in more foreign conflicts and lost more lives and caused the death of far more civilians. The relationship with NK seems to have clamed a great deal, as has the threat of terrorism. Plus he has helped ease tension in the middle east and Balkans. The issues domestically seem to have been whipped up largely by the media and poorly democratic run 

Tipping they could explain to you In great detail why they dislike Trump. 
 

They both have a passion for politics and contribute financially. 

Matt hosted Hillary at his house for a women leadership talk with his daughter & other women from their area. 

So yeah I’m confident they could explain it. If ppl would listen is the real question.
 

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1 minute ago, Bored@work said:

Tipping they could explain to you In great detail why they dislike Trump. 
 

They both have a passion for politics and contribute financially. 

Matt hosted Hillary at his house for a women leadership talk with his daughter & other women from their area. 

So yeah I’m confident they could explain it. If ppl would listen is the real question.
 

Geezus, talk about indoctrination-I could never donate money to a political party. Despite all the contrary evidence does he still think Hillary is a good person? 

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32 minutes ago, Bored@work said:

Tipping they could explain to you In great detail why they dislike Trump. 
 

They both have a passion for politics and contribute financially. 

Matt hosted Hillary at his house for a women leadership talk with his daughter & other women from their area. 

So yeah I’m confident they could explain it. If ppl would listen is the real question.
 

So they're not just pissed because they backed the wrong horse?

I'd be more than happy to hear them out if they were willing to extend me the same courtesy 

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Just now, IronJimbo said:

So they're not just pissed because they backed the wrong horse?

I'd be more than happy to hear them out if they were willing to extend me the same courtesy 

What makes you think they wouldn't listen? 

They are obviously dissapointed Hillary didn't get in, but they support the process and are currently campaigning for their prefered nominee in the up coming election. 

 

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Just now, Bored@work said:

What makes you think they wouldn't listen? 

They are obviously dissapointed Hillary didn't get in, but they support the process and are currently campaigning for their prefered nominee in the up coming election. 

 

Because liberals are less tolerant of opposing viewpoints than conservatives

Which is why research suggests that liberals are more likely to block or unfriend people because of their political views

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2014/10/21/liberals-are-more-likely-to-unfriend-you-over-politics-online-and-off/

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2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Because liberals are less tolerant of opposing viewpoints than conservatives

Which is why research suggests that liberals are more likely to block or unfriend people because of their political views

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2014/10/21/liberals-are-more-likely-to-unfriend-you-over-politics-online-and-off/

good thanks

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1 hour ago, Bored@work said:

Why does that matter? 

Because if they are so biased that they cant accept the truth about someone on their 'team' then its not likely that any views they have against the opposition are likely to be ground on un biased rational thought.

That being said I would be really interested in hearing their views if it happens to come up in your convos.

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2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Because liberals are less tolerant of opposing viewpoints than conservatives

Which is why research suggests that liberals are more likely to block or unfriend people because of their political views

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2014/10/21/liberals-are-more-likely-to-unfriend-you-over-politics-online-and-off/

It's funny, I have been to the USA 12 times  and I have experienced the opposite. 

 

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11 minutes ago, more said:

Because if they are so biased that they cant accept the truth about someone on their 'team' then its not likely that any views they have against the opposition are likely to be ground on un biased rational thought.

That being said I would be really interested in hearing their views if it happens to come up in your convos.

People on both sides of politics often struggle to accept the truth about someone on their 'team' 

I could point you to almost 104 pages of examples 

 

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@Mike Del Im about to put a few bets on, struggling on what though as all seem good value, maybe I'll chuck a bit on each..

 

Trump to win at least 1 state that he didnt in 2016 $2.25

Trump to lose popular vote but get reelected $2.88 (def going to jump on this one)

Trump to win over 40 state $4.70

State map to be exactly the same as it was 2016 $81 (surely this is worth $10 punt..)

Hmmmmm

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40 minutes ago, more said:

Trump to win at least 1 state that he didnt in 2016 $2.25

 

That's a pretty good price.  I reckon Arizona, Minnesota or New Hampshire could easily flip, and you only need one of them

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11 minutes ago, goughy said:

Sadly, I believe you're in for a payday More.

Who knows mate, I'm just placing my bets based on the following:

-the U.S economy is very strong

-unemployment has improved considerably for minority groups

-people will be upset with the BLM violence in Democrat states

-people will fear they are not voting for Biden but are actually voting for Harris (as Biden wont last a full term) 

- the silent majority factor

One of the biggest factors for me to place my bets-I have 3 mates who are ALL left leaning (I do live in the west..), all originally hated Trump. They have all funnily enough recently started saying they are actually warming to Trump and cant believe the way the media attack him unnecessarily. I thinking this could be indicative of some of the U.S population who want to cast a protest vote against fake news.

But who knows, time will tell I guess..

 

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1 minute ago, BarryBevan said:

I'm tempted to get in on some of that action, but the only certainty is no one has any idea who is going to win the US election

Yep, I don't think I will be surprised no matter who wins-in hindsight there is strong reasons for either.

Another factor for me is Americans seem to hate being told what to do/bullied.. I reckon it again will cause a backlash against the Dems..

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2 hours ago, more said:

Yep, I don't think I will be surprised no matter who wins-in hindsight there is strong reasons for either.

Another factor for me is Americans seem to hate being told what to do/bullied.. I reckon it again will cause a backlash against the Dems..

Trump won in 16 as he got people to turn out where he needed them to, so did Obama in both elections. I think Romney (12) had a bigger popular vote than Trump.

Clinton did not get people to turn out where needed and seemed to be so confident that she thought maybe did not need to.

Biden is playing the I'm not Don hand, which makes sense in the current landscape. Byt taking your and others points, the UK narrative around Brexit and Boris would have you believe he was deeply unpopular and he got a landslide on the basis of a Brexit that a seemingly elitist opposition opposed.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Trump won in 16 as he got people to turn out where he needed them to, so did Obama in both elections. I think Romney (12) had a bigger popular vote than Trump.

Clinton did not get people to turn out where needed and seemed to be so confident that she thought maybe did not need to.

Biden is playing the I'm not Don hand, which makes sense in the current landscape. Byt taking your and others points, the UK narrative around Brexit and Boris would have you believe he was deeply unpopular and he got a landslide on the basis of a Brexit that a seemingly elitist opposition opposed.

 

 

I have read your comment about 5 times and still cant work out what you are trying to say?

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