He has gone 2:44 on a course that is 41km based on his Strava.
So that means 2:48:30 on an accurate course.
He can't win Kona with those run splits unless he throws it down on the bike. On a short course like Italy on a mild day (It was 22 degrees) he needed to run sub 2:40. His run has certainly improved enough that if he does lay it down on the bike, the others aren't going to be able to hang back anymore knowing they can run him down.
Can't see him breaking 3:00 in 3 weeks though, so will need 10 minutes off the bike at least.