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monkie last won the day on May 1 2020

monkie had the most liked content!

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About monkie

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  • Birthday 30/10/1985

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  1. monkie


    I interpreted the first one as you sat in your driveway and then you swapped into other peoples' driveways which was, at the time, against the law which was that you could only leave your property for specific reasons of which socialising was not one. If you meant you swapped positions on your own driveway then that's completely different and I apologise but the way it was worded made it sound like you swapped driveways. Edit to change house to property.
  2. monkie


    The is a bit of this. It's one of the reasons that hospitals saw a massive spike then nothing. An A&E consultant explained it as"all the people usually coming in to die already did that last month".
  3. monkie


    Deaths are not the most important metric because they have a 2 / 3 week lag although our stats are truly horrible. New cases is the one to look at and that is trending down, under 2,000 yesterday for the first time in ages and that's (finally) with a proper testing regime. But yes it's still high. We're not going back to normal but we are slowly relaxing, alas a lot of people aren't following the rules anymore. I don't really know what changed to start the relaxing other than political pressure, we shall see. We'll have thousands more dead before this is done though, horrific and sh
  4. monkie


    No. He's a data scientist. I think perhaps one of the data scientists I work with (totalling 30) would describe themselves as a skilled computer programmer.
  5. monkie


    Also, his code wasn't spaghetti. Have a look at it, if you know C and Python then it's not that hard to understand: https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim
  6. monkie


    Buggy code in safety critical is different from buggy code in the data world. That's kind of built as you go and then you get a result. Of course there will be a discussion, it was a model and it should be discussed and yes the lack of peer review is worrying but there wasn't really time. And the Booty call is a classic Dominic Cummings tactic, he waited until he needed to hide the actual news and then dropped it. We shall have to wait and see what the long term outcomes are to judge response. But my hunch (and this is just. hunch) is the the UK, the US and Brazil ****ed it.
  7. monkie


    Not having a go at you at all Barry and know you've seen the effects first hand. The first article as I said is moderately OK, but not really fair. Comparing a working notebook of code which you would build as you analyse is completely different to making software for commercial release. The article shows a lack of understanding of how data science is actually done. The second I won't read as it's an internet forum, not science. The third is barely any better, it's certainly not research, it appears to be a commentary about an individual which misses the point quite badly. The m
  8. monkie

    SMS spam?

    I spend a lot of time talking to people about smishing which is SMS based phishing! Increasingly problematic for large businesses.
  9. monkie


    Barry you are right that hospitals have been less busy over the whole period (Im talking UK but I'm sure true in most countries) but that's what happens when you stop a country. It was kind of the point. Fewer car crashes, nobody breaking their legs playing sport, no Friday night and Saturday night fights, stop non-emergency surgery... Of course there is going to be capacity. We also saw the effect of the "only go to hospital if you really need to" mindset. Similar to after 7/7 in London. However I really have to ask where this came from? It looks suspiciously like a Facebook C&
  10. monkie


    Daily figures here: https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk Look out for Peng Wu's replies. They're some of the most useful charts. Live data lives here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
  11. monkie


    Really positive numbers today. Always need to be careful around the weekends but if they're accurate then it looks like I might have been wrong. Everything crossed.
  12. monkie


    I think what we're seeing here is the effect of different experiences in different parts of the country. FP lives in leafy countryside (as do I) but I spend a lot of time going into London where behaviour and situations are very different. People are being encouraged to return to work, in fact told they must do so by the government. In the countryside this is fine, people can drive. Most people in London do not own a car and rely completely on public transport. So the government advice to "Return to work but avoid public transport" is pure BS. It's impossible for hundreds of t
  13. monkie


    I hope they're all wrong but to the untrained eye (I'm no epidemiologist) I really cannot see what has changed. We still have thousands of new confirmed cases each day (3,451 yesterday, daily stats here: https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk) and hundreds of people dying (468 yesterday). We're cramming people back onto trains / the tube / buses and planning on sending kids back to school without actually solving or changing anything. Like I said, I don't know for certain, nobody does, but at a tactical level in SJA we're gearing up for another busy few weeks similar to what we had when it starte
  14. monkie


    That's based on modelling I think rather than hospital data? I hope you're right though! A friend was out yesterday and noted they had their first ?Covid in a couple of weeks of none. Can't draw any conclusions from that but with travel around the country starting again and thousands of cases nationwide I'm sceptical. Especially seeing pictures of the tube rammed.
  15. monkie


    Well... Interesting times as it appears we head towards a second peak. The breaking of lock down rules last weekend for VE day has been compounded by deliberately vague government guidelines for this week. A Cummings classic where the focus has been effectively shifted to arguing about what is and is not allowed rather than focusing on the second worst death toll in the world. We haven't seen the impact of that in the numbers yet but I don't think it's going to be an improvement. The reinfection rate is on the way back up and we're back to 8 weeks ago when we were effectively relying
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