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Flanman

What to invest in

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So, with the corona virus being a one in a hundred year event affecting the world, what are people’s thoughts on what/ who to invest in. This can either be short, medium, long term or just funny. My quick thoughts:

* the right drug company
*toilet paper manufacturers
*supermarkets
* chemists
*online entertainment (eg Foxtel, Stan)

Well ?????

FM

 

Edited by Flanman

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Plumbing contractors - the amount of blocked toilets from "things other than toilet paper" going down the drains will cause more sewage blockages than in any other time in history... :)

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Invest in the businesses that are low priced at the moment and have the potential to bounce back quick.   Thats where you will make a killing. 

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I bought some Vanguard Australian share ETF's when the market fell last week. I have some buy orders in at the moment at a much lower price as I think that the Australian share price will fall further. I feel like a vulture.

I would not buy toilet paper shares as they will have very low sales for the next few months.

If I was to speculate I would buy shares in large companies, in industries that are badly affected. For example in tourism shares are down. Many smaller companies may fold over the next few months. Larger companies which can survive will have less competitors after the crisis.

You should also buy shares in travel insurance companies. It seems a licence to print money. Take people's money and have a get a clause so that you don't have to pay out in the event of a pandemic.

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Norwegian Cruise Lines. They were around $60 before this started, and are now trading at around $11. If they come out of this solvent, they should have a reasonable rise.

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8 hours ago, Flanman said:

 

* the right drug company
*toilet paper manufacturers
*supermarkets
* chemists
*online entertainment (eg Foxtel, Stan)

 

 

You'll find the horse has already bolted on these already.  Other 'experts' will have already bumped the prices up, will get one good dividend later this year from them, then the price will revert to normal and the losses on price will go nowhere near the dividend paid.  (Note, Woolworths shares are down around 20% over the last 2 weeks, so not a good example)

Many good normal stocks are underpriced at the moment.  If we head to a depression out of this whole episode, the old adage of Guns, Gambling, Grog and Grub is where the less volatile markets will exist

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wait until things calm down then pick up some bargains. The Reject shop was in the news today as their sales have increased significantly. They have a new CEO and the price was already very low from some pretty average performance before he came on board. Not a bad place to stick some money IMO. Also some people looking to buy it outright so upward SP pressure may happen quite quickly when it does.

Edit to add: I have not done well in the last few years. In fact I have been stupid, and wrong. So take the above as coming from a dude who knows how to lose money lol

Edited by dazaau
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Buy now sell in a year, big announcements next year regarding the burrup hub, Scarborough and browse

17727CF5-073D-409F-BE60-8176079A348F.png

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I'm thinking if the recession hit's, buying a boat as they could become cheaper. 

Otherwise property is always good and can get finance.

Then if i get retrenched will be able to have time to use boat, and if property needs a reno, then time to do it.

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11 hours ago, KieranR said:

Buy now sell in a year, big announcements next year regarding the burrup hub, Scarborough and browse

 

this is publicly available information or speculation or other?

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11 hours ago, KieranR said:

Buy now sell in a year, big announcements next year regarding the burrup hub, Scarborough and browse

 

 

28 minutes ago, Aidan said:

this is publicly available information or speculation or other?

Insider training much?  OMG

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5 hours ago, rory-dognz said:

Otherwise property is always good and can get finance.

Keep an eye out for a bargain on Cliff Road. :)

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One "investment tool" that you might want to look at is to do a "google trends" on topics related to your potential investment.

Have a look at the peaks and troughs and see how they correlate to the price at the time and, if there is a relationship, try and use it as a potential guide for future investments. Note that trends up in interest can precede a big rise OR a big fall but, what the hell, it;s only money.... :)

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33 minutes ago, iFoz said:

Keep an eye out for a bargain on Cliff Road. :)

very noisy with those annoying cyclists; also not really looking for a $3m bargin😎

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3 hours ago, Aidan said:

this is publicly available information or speculation or other?

Publicly available information, I have zero affiliation with Woodside.  It’s common knowledge they are planning the burrup hub and looking to bring browse gas down from off the coast of Broome and produce in the Nth west shelf joint venture plant (KGP) and then also bring Scarborough into the Pluto plant next door  which will mean an expansion to another gas train.  Linking both plants by way of an interconnecting pipe hence the name burrup hub. 
 

all the info can be gotten online, I read LNG news Australia last week regarding when Woodside plan to make FID. It’s also why rents in Karratha are skyrocketing at the moment.  $900 a week is cheap!  My house we are breaking lease on as we are moving into our company house just had 55 applicants to take over the lease and it’s only a small shoebox size house 3x1

or invest in purchasing a property here, your rental returns will be astounding.  But invest now.  Ten yrs ago in the last boom my company was leasing a house for us to live in and were paying $2400 a week...I kid you not!

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2 hours ago, Peter said:

 

Insider training much?  OMG

😂😂😂 not even close.  Just research it.  I’m lucky I live here so have a good understanding of what’s going on.

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On 16/03/2020 at 5:19 PM, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Norwegian Cruise Lines. They were around $60 before this started, and are now trading at around $11. If they come out of this solvent, they should have a reasonable rise.

IF.

But better chances than Princess.

 

As much as I dislike them, but Flight  Centre will bounce back good.

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My usual newsletter received that collates the recommendations of the main stockbrokers put out the latest edition with no recommendations - "Most stockbrokers don't have a clue what is going on, and any recommendations will be out of date by the time you read this"

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I think its a matter of "anything that doesnt go broke" will be a good investment on the other side. 

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1 hour ago, roxii said:

I think its a matter of "anything that doesnt go broke" will be a good investment on the other side. 

Correct 

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Qantas could be a good long. Down $6.67 a month ago to $2.86. The government will bail them out of any difficulty and if Virgin collapse they will have close to a monopoly for a period of time at least.

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Was thinking stock exchange shares would be a good investment youd think given so much trading.

They make money on trading volume  

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Anyone who jumps in now will do pretty well over the longer term, which is how almost investing should be done

And anyone under 50 who is worried about their super is wasting energy

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Boeing shares. A month ago over 400 a share. Now under 100

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On 18/03/2020 at 11:11 AM, IronJimbo said:

Anyone who jumps in now will do pretty well over the longer term, which is how almost investing should be done

And anyone under 50 who is worried about their super is wasting energy

The prices have a LOT further to fall-take CBA for example now trading at $65. Although it has dropped from its high of $90 in Feb its now still only the same price it was trading at around 1.5 years ago.  The world is in a much worse place than it was in Oct 2018 but the price is no where reflecting this.

We are about to see a economic disaster that makes the GFC look like a picnic.

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1 hour ago, more said:

The prices have a LOT further to fall-take CBA for example now trading at $65. Although it has dropped from its high of $90 in Feb its now still only the same price it was trading at around 1.5 years ago.  The world is in a much worse place than it was in Oct 2018 but the price is no where reflecting this.

We are about to see a economic disaster that makes the GFC look like a picnic.

Yeah I'm amazed the market is doing as well as it is especially considering many companies are going to struggle to survive. Qantas's payroll = $4 billion per year, they wouldn't survive without the inevitable government assistance that other carriers won't receive. I can't see how Air Asia and Virgin Australia will be around in 6 months time. 

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On 18/03/2020 at 7:02 AM, more said:

Qantas could be a good long. Down $6.67 a month ago to $2.86. The government will bail them out of any difficulty and if Virgin collapse they will have close to a monopoly for a period of time at least.

Yup.

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On 16/03/2020 at 6:02 PM, dazaau said:

wait until things calm down then pick up some bargains.

Yeah I would have thought now isn't the right time?

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On 16/03/2020 at 2:49 PM, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Norwegian Cruise Lines. They were around $60 before this started, and are now trading at around $11. If they come out of this solvent, they should have a reasonable rise.

Jeez cruises didn't have a good rep before, this would have done irreparable damage to their image.

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On 16/03/2020 at 11:10 AM, PeterW said:

Plumbing contractors - the amount of blocked toilets from "things other than toilet paper" going down the drains will cause more sewage blockages than in any other time in history... :)

Not as silly as it sounds.  My wife works for a mid-sized plumber who does new residential estates sewer plumbing, ROV sewer repairs etc.  Not usually single households.

The large work is drying up fast, developers are slowing down, not paying bills and that flows through to them.

However, they are now getting run off their feet for "minor" sewer/storm water repairs.  The owners don't mind, they don't care if they have to use the excavator for the big jobs or a shovel for the small, as long as the $$$ keep coming in.

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Too late for degrey mining, there shares have jumped 411% since drilling results came back in Feb.  potential huge gold deposit 80km sth of hedland.

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Don’t forget in this somewhat global economy - Aussie assets in USD terms have been doubly bashed and ‘very’ cheap. 

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On 16/03/2020 at 5:49 PM, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Norwegian Cruise Lines. They were around $60 before this started, and are now trading at around $11. If they come out of this solvent, they should have a reasonable rise.

I hope they survive, we've got a cruise booked with them in the Caribbean in December.

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20 hours ago, nealo said:

I hope they survive, we've got a cruise booked with them in the Caribbean in December.

I'd be cancelling. Nothing like a floating RSL and the potential of a virus outbreak.

In fact a cruise has never been on my radar. I reluctantly did a 3 days sampler cruise once with family, we all said on the 2nd night..... yep... we are done. Not for us.

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On 23/03/2020 at 11:51 AM, nealo said:

I hope they survive, we've got a cruise booked with them in the Caribbean in December.

Cruises are just breeding grounds for any virus let alone CV 

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8 hours ago, IronmanFoz said:

I'd be cancelling. Nothing like a floating RSL and the potential of a virus outbreak.

In fact a cruise has never been on my radar. I reluctantly did a 3 days sampler cruise once with family, we all said on the 2nd night..... yep... we are done. Not for us.

Likewise.  Never ever been interested in a cruise.

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I'd be selling any shares in private health insurance companies.  People are expecting the economy to tank and looking at all personal expenses closely, with the annual increase on us in a week, going to be more people considering whether to continue

Personal view only and not a substitute for financial advice yadda yadda

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1 hour ago, Cottoneyes said:

I'd be selling any shares in private health insurance companies.  People are expecting the economy to tank and looking at all personal expenses closely, with the annual increase on us in a week, going to be more people considering whether to continue

Personal view only and not a substitute for financial advice yadda yadda

Very interesting observation. 
 

given we will be paying for it and can’t actually claim anything for maybe 6 months this is a very good point.  

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True, I might as well drop my extras cover because I'm not going anywhere near my dentist or optometrist any time soon!  

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2 hours ago, -H- said:

True, I might as well drop my extras cover because I'm not going anywhere near my dentist or optometrist any time soon!  

Yep we are doing that too.  

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On 18/03/2020 at 10:02 AM, more said:

Qantas could be a good long. Down $6.67 a month ago to $2.86. The government will bail them out of any difficulty and if Virgin collapse they will have close to a monopoly for a period of time at least.

Qantas up 20% today...

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4 hours ago, more said:

Qantas up 20% today...

1.1 billion loan approved.  Will be ok I think, definitely a long but incremental buy in for me.

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7 hours ago, Peter said:

Yep we are doing that too.  

Now before you crazy kids go doing anything rash, check funds for extra only cover, some of my pts use different funds for hospital and extras. Industry and employer funds are best, there’s an emergency cover one that has pretty loose entry requirements and looks to be very good value. Do your own research and don’t trust Meerkats

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