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This is Eric trump. 
actual video of him saying this

im honestly shocked at this lie 

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Peter said:

We haven’t even had a first wave in Australia.   
 

interesting re the uk and pushing people back on trains. I hadn’t seen that. 

They aren't doing any such thing, in fact they are imploring people not to use the trains.   Read my previous posts as to why the trains are packed.

I've given up on this thread, too may experts that don't even live here chiming in and I'm fed up with repeating myself.

Knock yourselves out.

Edited by FatPom
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9 hours ago, monkie said:

I hope they're all wrong but to the untrained eye (I'm no epidemiologist) I really cannot see what has changed. We still have thousands of new confirmed cases each day (3,451 yesterday, daily stats here: https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk) and hundreds of people dying (468 yesterday). 

We're cramming people back onto trains / the tube / buses and planning on sending kids back to school without actually solving or changing anything. Like I said, I don't know for certain, nobody does, but at a tactical level in SJA we're gearing up for another busy few weeks similar to what we had when it started when the statutory services could barely cope.

 

55 minutes ago, Peter said:

We haven’t even had a first wave in Australia.   
 

interesting re the uk and pushing people back on trains. I hadn’t seen that. 

 

5 minutes ago, FatPom said:

They aren't doing any such thing, in fact they are imploring people not to use the trains.   Read my previous posts as to why the trains are packed.

I've given up on this thread, too may experts that don't even live here chiming in and I'm fed up with repeating myself.

Knock yourselves out.

 

Monkie said above that it was happening and he lives there too doesn't he?

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link

The problem is if even a low percentage head back to work, as a necessity, it gets crowded.  The design and flow pinch points just make it near impossible to stick to the rules/best practice.

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11 hours ago, monkie said:

I hope they're all wrong but to the untrained eye (I'm no epidemiologist) I really cannot see what has changed. We still have thousands of new confirmed cases each day (3,451 yesterday, daily stats here: https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk) and hundreds of people dying (468 yesterday). 

We're cramming people back onto trains / the tube / buses and planning on sending kids back to school without actually solving or changing anything. Like I said, I don't know for certain, nobody does, but at a tactical level in SJA we're gearing up for another busy few weeks similar to what we had when it started when the statutory services could barely cope.

 

1 hour ago, FatPom said:

They aren't doing any such thing, in fact they are imploring people not to use the trains.   Read my previous posts as to why the trains are packed.

I've given up on this thread, too may experts that don't even live here chiming in and I'm fed up with repeating myself.

Knock yourselves out.

Mate I just commented on what Monkie said and thought given he is on the ground there and in the trenches, it was fact.

 

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In Victoria our factory is shut, with a confirmed case in the production area. All staff to be tested. Site closed

400+ people, lets hope it doesn't create a new significant cluster.

 

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20 minutes ago, rory-dognz said:

In Victoria our factory is shut, with a confirmed case in the production area. All staff to be tested. Site closed

400+ people, lets hope it doesn't create a new significant cluster.

 

Where in Vic? Most of the recent "clusters" seem to be northern and western suburbs of Melbourne but that could change any time, of course 

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4 hours ago, FatPom said:

 

I've given up on this thread, too may experts that don't even live here chiming in and I'm fed up with repeating myself.

Knock yourselves out.

Mate all we are trying to do, is discuss this. I jump on the news and if 3 sites say "London trains packed despite virus" that's what I will relay and post. They hide from you the fact the number of trains have been reduced. 

Obviously we all know that we have to take with a pinch of salt what is printed in the media, but it's hard to differentiate with what is fact and what is embellished. All we have to go on is the media and various reports from different organisations, scientists and "scientists". If we don't post stuff we hear, we cannot discuss the virus. e.g I've been monitoring the number of deaths per country that WHO has been publishing. I could say I've noticed the UK's death rate has doubled in 5 days, suggesting the virus is spreading. But then someone might point out they have only started testing people in nursing homes etc So I don't know? Read, post, discuss. If it's wrong, so be it, I'm happy to be told I'm wrong. I have an open mind.

Edited by zed
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7 hours ago, FatPom said:

They aren't doing any such thing, in fact they are imploring people not to use the trains.   Read my previous posts as to why the trains are packed.

I've given up on this thread, too may experts that don't even live here chiming in and I'm fed up with repeating myself.

Knock yourselves out.

Don’t be like that FP.  I like your posts as they are informative.  You an Ex always have very thoughtful intelligent posts.  

Edited by Prince
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4 hours ago, -H- said:

Where in Vic? Most of the recent "clusters" seem to be northern and western suburbs of Melbourne but that could change any time, of course 

Melbourne somewhere

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23 minutes ago, rory-dognz said:

Melbourne somewhere

Mattress manufacturer Rory? If so, western suburbs.

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16 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Mattress manufacturer Rory? If so, western suburbs.

Thanks, I try and avoid anything to do with the Aussie business, and Melbourne in general, that’s why keen to give Victoria to the Italy.

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I think what we're seeing here is the effect of different experiences in different parts of the country. 

FP lives in leafy countryside (as do I) but I spend a lot of time going into London where behaviour and situations are very different.

People are being encouraged to return to work, in fact told they must do so by the government. In the countryside this is fine, people can drive. Most people in London do not own a car and rely completely on public transport. 

So the government advice to "Return to work but avoid public transport" is pure BS. It's impossible for hundreds of thousands (probably millions) of people. 

This has been doubly compounded by TfL not only reintroducing the congestion charge but increasing it and extending it to 7 days a week! So although people are not being forced onto trains, they are certainly being "nudged" in that direction.

Edit: For spelling and to add bit about c'charge.

Edited by monkie

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Really positive numbers today. Always need to be careful around the weekends but if they're accurate then it looks like I might have been wrong. Everything crossed.

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3 hours ago, monkie said:

Really positive numbers today. Always need to be careful around the weekends but if they're accurate then it looks like I might have been wrong. Everything crossed.

what site are you using for your data? I've been using WHO's sitrep reports, UK number of deaths was steadily dropping, then shot up again? The numbers are all over the place and seem indicative of inconsistent testing. A week ago, the number of daily deaths was dropping, 350, 280, 210, then shot up to 450 on Thursday, now it's 170? I would have thought there would just be a steady, consistent drop.

 

 

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Interesting note on why Belgium has the highest death rate - they are counting everything and making assumptions others are not.  

 

Useful numbers on BBC site for the UK link

Edited by symo
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1 minute ago, symo said:

Interesting note on why Belgium has the highest death rate - they are counting everything and making assumptions others are not.  

Yeah exactly. The stats all hinge on how each country is testing. A lot of 3rd world countries don't have testing kits so are reporting 0 deaths...

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21 minutes ago, zed said:

Yeah exactly. The stats all hinge on how each country is testing. A lot of 3rd world countries don't have testing kits so are reporting 0 deaths...

Russia has the 2nd highest number of cases, and is at the point in their case load curve where other countries were counting very significant death numbers, yet is only 19th highest death toll, and still having low (comparatively) fatalities. Either there's something in the vodka, or the counting is a bit awry.

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56 minutes ago, zed said:

Yeah exactly. The stats all hinge on how each country is testing. A lot of 3rd world countries don't have testing kits so are reporting 0 deaths...

The papers were reporting that Bali his doing great.   
I find that hard to believe. 

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1 hour ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Russia has the 2nd highest number of cases, and is at the point in their case load curve where other countries were counting very significant death numbers, yet is only 19th highest death toll, and still having low (comparatively) fatalities. Either there's something in the vodka, or the counting is a bit awry.

I have no doubt the Medical Examiner is being threatened to rule on a different cause of death otherwise it’s to the Gulag. 

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7 hours ago, zed said:

what site are you using for your data? I've been using WHO's sitrep reports, UK number of deaths was steadily dropping, then shot up again? The numbers are all over the place and seem indicative of inconsistent testing. A week ago, the number of daily deaths was dropping, 350, 280, 210, then shot up to 450 on Thursday, now it's 170? I would have thought there would just be a steady, consistent drop.

Daily figures here: https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk

Look out for Peng Wu's replies. They're some of the most useful charts.

image.thumb.png.2a9ce85d879e5864e1cdd92f06db3cdc.png

Live data lives here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

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2 hours ago, monkie said:

Daily figures here: https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk

Look out for Peng Wu's replies. They're some of the most useful charts.

image.thumb.png.2a9ce85d879e5864e1cdd92f06db3cdc.png

Live data lives here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Cheers for that, looks to be a detailed website. That does look promising. Interesting the regular spikes that have been ongoing for a few weeks. That could be related to the weekends?

Edited by zed

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On 18/05/2020 at 11:21 AM, rory-dognz said:

In Victoria our factory is shut, with a confirmed case in the production area. All staff to be tested. Site closed

400+ people, lets hope it doesn't create a new significant cluster.

 

 

On 18/05/2020 at 4:11 PM, rory-dognz said:

Melbourne somewhere

 

On 18/05/2020 at 4:35 PM, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Mattress manufacturer Rory? If so, western suburbs.

Interesting there has been nothing about this for days in the news here. 
 

only the nursing homes, McDonald’s stores and cedar meat. 
 

so either you are lying or there is another cedar meats style coverup.  
 

guessing the latter as there is history of that and none of you lying.  

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33 minutes ago, Peter said:

 

 

Interesting there has been nothing about this for days in the news here. 
 

only the nursing homes, McDonald’s stores and cedar meat. 
 

so either you are lying or there is another cedar meats style coverup.  
 

guessing the latter as there is history of that and none of you lying.  

Drawing a long bow there Peter.

Rory said "a confirmed case", just 1. The site was closed down for cleaning, which is standard, and is what the news said the day  I looked. Everyone was tested. Everyone else came back negative, so let's move on.

 

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8 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Drawing a long bow there Peter.

Rory said "a confirmed case", just 1. The site was closed down for cleaning, which is standard, and is what the news said the day  I looked. Everyone was tested. Everyone else came back negative, so let's move on.

 

The update that we as staff have:

1 person tested positive, tests have been done on all other affected staff and no addition positives have been recorded.

They have followed the DHHS guidelines and are able to reopen.

44 minutes ago, Peter said:

 

 

Interesting there has been nothing about this for days in the news here. 
 

only the nursing homes, McDonald’s stores and cedar meat. 
 

so either you are lying or there is another cedar meats style coverup.  
 

guessing the latter as there is history of that and none of you lying.  

Peter normally enjoy your contribution, but remember to play the ball, not the man.

 

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7 minutes ago, rory-dognz said:

The update that we as staff have:

1 person tested positive, tests have been done on all other affected staff and no addition positives have been recorded.

They have followed the DHHS guidelines and are able to reopen.

Peter normally enjoy your contribution, but remember to play the ball, not the man.

 

I 100% said I believe you above. 
 

found it here 

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-17-may-2020

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1 hour ago, Peter said:

. so either you are lying or there is another cedar meats style coverup.  
 

guessing the latter as there is history of that and none of you lying.  

 

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On 17/05/2020 at 2:41 PM, Peter said:

What’s the daily death count in the uk given the talk of a second wave.   
 

I couldn’t find a daily webpage. Just this https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109595/coronavirus-mortality-in-the-uk/

 

edit. Found this.  Weird pattern 

 

E20F18BA-ECB1-4997-AF6B-DAC12DE6BAA1.jpeg

The "weekend effect" is even more noticeable on the World death tally.

image.png.efc753a419b6596091e4fef8f7b48001.png

 

Overall it looks like the death tally is dropping since the initial rise. The infection rate is remaining fairly constant (as one country drops it appears others step in to take up the numbers) so hopefully it means we are getting better at detecting the virus and better at treating it.

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Interesting news on the recent "positive trial" of a vaccine this week in the US. The company that announced it, Moderna, is at present trying to raise funds by selling additional stock at $76/share. Shares were trading at $66 prior to the announcement. People are now questioning the results, given that they have still not published any data, the partners they were conducting the trial with have not made any comments, and the "8 positive results" don't make any mention of the 37 other people that are on the trial.

I honestly hope this is a step forward, but I wouldn't be holding my breath. :(

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7 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Interesting news on the recent "positive trial" of a vaccine this week in the US. The company that announced it, Moderna, is at present trying to raise funds by selling additional stock at $76/share. Shares were trading at $66 prior to the announcement. People are now questioning the results, given that they have still not published any data, the partners they were conducting the trial with have not made any comments, and the "8 positive results" don't make any mention of the 37 other people that are on the trial.

I honestly hope this is a step forward, but I wouldn't be holding my breath. :(

Which is why the Dow jumped up on Monday night and went back down last night 

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Guys I have moved the swimming stuff to its own thread in Trichat. 

 

 

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On 19/05/2020 at 5:07 PM, zed said:

Cheers for that, looks to be a detailed website. That does look promising. Interesting the regular spikes that have been ongoing for a few weeks. That could be related to the weekends?

Numbers in the UK back up. 540 new deaths according to WHO.

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22 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Which is why the Dow jumped up on Monday night and went back down last night 

After us senators used insider trading?

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51 minutes ago, Parkside said:

After us senators used insider trading?

 I don't think alleged malfeasance in late January would have had much of an effect on the market in mid-May 

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Strong chance I will be working from home until next year. I'm working at a UK university. So many of my colleagues have struggled through the past 2 months. Another 6 won't be good for them.

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1 hour ago, The Customer said:

Strong chance I will be working from home until next year. I'm working at a UK university. So many of my colleagues have struggled through the past 2 months. Another 6 won't be good for them.

If they have been stuck with home schooling kids in a lockdown they are probably going mad. I'm at month three at some point people are going to crack.

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9 hours ago, BarryBevan said:

If they have been stuck with home schooling kids in a lockdown they are probably going mad. I'm at month three at some point people are going to crack.

I've been WFH, home schooling for 2 months now. I live 10mins from the beach though and have much more freedom than in the USA and UK and I've found it challenging, so god knows how people with strict restrictions are coping. It must be tough. I have mates in the UK that live in apartment buildings and can only leave for 1 hour a day to do exercise and get food.

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10 hours ago, BarryBevan said:

If they have been stuck with home schooling kids in a lockdown they are probably going mad. I'm at month three at some point people are going to crack.

 

28 minutes ago, zed said:

I've been WFH, home schooling for 2 months now. I live 10mins from the beach though and have much more freedom than in the USA and UK and I've found it challenging, so god knows how people with strict restrictions are coping. It must be tough. I have mates in the UK that live in apartment buildings and can only leave for 1 hour a day to do exercise and get food.

Agreed. I haven't had any real issues with it, but I live on acreage, like my solitude, and had been WFH for 2 days a week for the past 2 years anyway. The fact we've had the freedom to get out more than you Barry has been a godsend to a lot of folk. I couldn't imagine being in a unit with a couple of kids at school and me going to work each day, let alone being stuck inside with them 24/7. I hope you get through it OK.

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I've been WFH since mid-March and I am looking at being here until August, we have also discussed a future WFH plan which means I will be at home 2 days a week, as my role needs to "press the flesh" (well socially distanced) for a few days a week.

We are in an apartment, but I am glad I can get outside for exercise, I'm riding indoors (safest option), and running outdoors. I get to swim tomorrow! 

As much as I am not a fan of ScoMo, but the early actions have helped, I guess also the bushfires had a silver lining as people overseas reconsidered their travel.

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1 hour ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

 

Agreed. I haven't had any real issues with it, but I live on acreage, like my solitude, and had been WFH for 2 days a week for the past 2 years anyway. The fact we've had the freedom to get out more than you Barry has been a godsend to a lot of folk. I couldn't imagine being in a unit with a couple of kids at school and me going to work each day, let alone being stuck inside with them 24/7. I hope you get through it OK.

well my unit is a 455 square meter townhome with an internal lift from the garage

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Social distancing with my mate today.  No self-respecting virus could live in this weather anyway, damn it was cold.  But we found a few sheltered bays & when the sun peeped out it was really nice & peaceful.  We didn't even care the fish did not play ball.  We may have talked some shit.

Still1.thumb.jpg.b2fafe78575d3daca63083c30ca60c4f.jpg

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Western Leaders ineptitude at not closing things down two weeks earlier led to the only play left, social distance, close borders stuff up trade, We have taken an economic wrecking ball and massive debts as we found business operates with less cash flow (by proportions) and reserves required to service the average household mortgage. But they are happy to be bailed out by you the tax payer, who will keep bailing.

Some interesting points about hospitals:

Pre covid our hospitals were regularly operating at 120% intended capacity. We were using floor space and equipment set aside for a mass casualty type of event (earthquake, or you know, a pandemic).

During COVID, we are operating at 70% capacity. There are fewer then 10 covid cases

 

Electives here in BC are expected to be delayed up to 2 years

A friend of ours is an osteopathic surgeon at a small hospital in southern Germany. The hospital sent home as many patients as possible and cancelled elective surgeries in preparation for co-vid 19. They have not had a single admittance.

Cancer treatments delayed. Friend to begin radiation (prostate) his time to get zapped is "pending".

And there are many more. This all done in reaction to a largely now discredited Imperial College paper whose author was so worried about catching it that he multiple times broke lock down rules to go and have sex with some one not in his household.

Our little package which coarsely divided would have given 12K to every single person in Australia, but lets just assume in that rich people, people who ket their jobs, retirees, people already on pensions etc don't need anything:

Of the 6 million estimated to apply by end of April 3.3 million registered so:

We could have given 78,000 dollars to all those who were actually impacted by this or 34,000 to those who were planned to be affected. Now that seems a bit generous:

By household average Aussie household gets 116 K a year agin just being blunt but it would have to be a graded scale:

There are 7.7 million households, so lets have 3.85 million who needed help (accepting that if you made 115 I only have to give you 1 K to make you no worse off).

We have a whopping 67 K to give to each household who are below that number, add in a few other pillars:

You have to pay your mortgage and bills and feed people.

We pay the 67 K up to the median household income so there will be a lot more, given not everyone has two unemployed in the model.

In that model we put same government stimulus in, all bills are paid, and people have as much money as they did before to buy stuff so economy does not collapse

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Barry you are right that hospitals have been less busy over the whole period (Im talking UK but I'm sure true in most countries) but that's what happens when you stop a country. It was kind of the point. Fewer car crashes, nobody breaking their legs playing sport, no Friday night and Saturday night fights, stop non-emergency surgery... Of course there is going to be capacity. 

We also saw the effect of the "only go to hospital if you really need to" mindset. Similar to after 7/7 in London.

However I really have to ask where this came from? It looks suspiciously like a Facebook C&P. The use of the term " a largely now discredited Imperial College paper " is quite far from anything I've seen. The code has been criticised but having looked at it as somebody who sees "rough and ready" actual code for data science on a weekly basis, it ain't too bad. I haven't seen any evidence to contradict the prediction that half a million people would have died in the UK if we did nothing. But if you have then please do share.

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1 hour ago, monkie said:

Barry you are right that hospitals have been less busy over the whole period (Im talking UK but I'm sure true in most countries) but that's what happens when you stop a country. It was kind of the point. Fewer car crashes, nobody breaking their legs playing sport, no Friday night and Saturday night fights, stop non-emergency surgery... Of course there is going to be capacity. 

We also saw the effect of the "only go to hospital if you really need to" mindset. Similar to after 7/7 in London.

However I really have to ask where this came from? It looks suspiciously like a Facebook C&P. The use of the term " a largely now discredited Imperial College paper " is quite far from anything I've seen. The code has been criticised but having looked at it as somebody who sees "rough and ready" actual code for data science on a weekly basis, it ain't too bad. I haven't seen any evidence to contradict the prediction that half a million people would have died in the UK if we did nothing. But if you have then please do share.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/coding-led-lockdown-totally-unreliable-buggy-mess-say-experts/

https://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/Slowtwitch_Forums_C1/Lavender_Room_F4/Was_Imperial_model_a_piece_of_crap%3F_P7230399/?search_string=imperial college#p7230399

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/08/so-the-real-scandal-is-why-did-anyone-ever-listen-to-this-guy/

I'm less worried about the model, it ahocked people into action after they dropped the ball on health care, being prepared and responding, than I am the economic response, I already buried our family member with Covid so no doubting virus killing effect from me.

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Not having a go at you at all Barry and know you've seen the effects first hand. The first article as I said is moderately OK, but not really fair. Comparing a working notebook of code which you would build as you analyse is completely different to making software for commercial release. The article shows a lack of understanding of how data science is actually done.

The second I won't read as it's an internet forum, not science.

The third is barely any better, it's certainly not research, it appears to be a commentary about an individual which misses the point quite badly.

The most important thing right now is to stick to science, knowledge and facts. I'm afraid your post above loses all credibility when it claims a paper is "widely discredited" when, in reality, I don't think it is. 

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Fair, I'm a bit concerned with buggy code, but I've spent a long time working in areas that are safety critical. The third shows the person who made the model has a history of making models with a certain assumptions, the fact that his code is spaghetti leads to some questions.

Only reason for the ST forum reference is a few of them work in the field. Anyhow I'm more worried about how we are allocating our resources, the medicine is not in dispute, the model and the response is being assessed.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/seeing-the-invisible/a-critique-of-neil-fergusons-the-imperial-college-pandemic-model/

https://judithcurry.com/2020/04/01/imperial-college-uk-covid-19-numbers-dont-seem-to-add-up/

There was no peer review, anyway lets move from widely discredit to there is a discussion, and consider that he broke the lock down for a booty call!

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Buggy code in safety critical is different from buggy code in the data world. That's kind of built as you go and then you get a result.

Of course there will be a discussion, it was a model and it should be discussed and yes the lack of peer review is worrying but there wasn't really time. And the Booty call is a classic Dominic Cummings tactic, he waited until he needed to hide the actual news and then dropped it. 

We shall have to wait and see what the long term outcomes are to judge response. But my hunch (and this is just. hunch) is the the UK, the US and Brazil ****ed it.

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