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8 hours ago, dazaau said:

That's some selection bias there.

It's an issue. The other is that there is also the reality that infections also have an element of randomness about how they spread in the early stages.

Sometimes you can be lucky and what might have caused into an uptick in case load didn't happen just because of natural randomness in the way people go about their daily lives. e.g. an asymptomatic infected person missed their party because of a flat car battery. It can of course go the other way, e.g. that same asymptomatic person just happened to be someone serving food and beverages at a crowded sport or cultural venue. Of course once you pass a certain point, then the randomness tends to wash out.

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I have family living in London, working from home, doing everything by the rules for self isolation. We spoke last night & theyre scared. Frightened. Its awful being so far away from them. Im scared for them 😢

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2 hours ago, -H- said:

Sorry, I thought you were only talking about the one cruise ship (Ruby Princess) - which is linked to 15 out of 50 deaths.  Obviously bad but definitely not the majority.  No deaths in Victoria (where I live) are linked to cruise ships which is probably why I have a different perspective.

We had a cluster on the Monrington Peninsula which was most likely linked to a couple returning from a ski trip in Aspen and not self-isolating, and in Toorak there was a GP who thought he had a cold and kept treating patients.  There was also a wedding cluster from memory.

That GP should be struct off the register

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2 minutes ago, Fitness Buddy said:

That GP should be struct off the register

You need to bare in mind this was very early in he piece and he had very mild symptoms and followed the official recommendations at the time. Wasn't all that long ago we were still allowed to travel etc, a lot changes in a few weeks.

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48 minutes ago, Surfer said:

I have family living in London, working from home, doing everything by the rules for self isolation. We spoke last night & theyre scared. Frightened. Its awful being so far away from them. Im scared for them 😢

My dad is the opposite 83 and living alone in Nth Ireland, he si 100% fine mentally and physically and yet doesn't seem to grasp the gravity of it all. 

Im worried about him as he is carrying on virtually as normal, going to the shops every morning etc. 

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My Federal agency SMSd me at midnight and informed me I have to present at 4pm tomorrow for compulsory testing. They have been taking it very seriously since mid March. Masks, gloves, skeleton crews. They even kicked everyone out of the facility yesterday to disinfect. We have drones flying up and down streets as well as airport fire trucks spraying the whole city. Our curve is pointing the right was over the last week with percentage infection imcreases of 26 26 23 19 20 18 14 13

 

Watching ScoMo's shit show in comparison makes me embarrassed to be Australian. 

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22 minutes ago, roxii said:

My dad is the opposite 83 and living alone in Nth Ireland, he si 100% fine mentally and physically and yet doesn't seem to grasp the gravity of it all. 

Im worried about him as he is carrying on virtually as normal, going to the shops every morning etc. 

I would be worried about him, but in his defence, he probably thinks "fk it I'm 83, had a good life & will just chill out with a good whisky" 

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11 minutes ago, Bored@work said:

I would be worried about him, but in his defence, he probably thinks "fk it I'm 83, had a good life & will just chill out with a good whisky" 

I have a FiL the same. He's starting to get the idea that it's serious, but after living in London during the Blitz, and losing his wife a couple months ago, he's not that interested in bunkering down.

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38 minutes ago, roxii said:

My dad is the opposite 83 and living alone in Nth Ireland, he si 100% fine mentally and physically and yet doesn't seem to grasp the gravity of it all. 

Im worried about him as he is carrying on virtually as normal, going to the shops every morning etc. 

My father has at least copped on and let the neighbours do the shopping for them, but he is somehow still holding onto the idea that he will be getting on a ferry in May, with my mother, to travel back to Brittany, France.  🙄

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22 hours ago, roxii said:

Any updates on Chrissy yet?  They are meant to be flying home today or tomorrow.

Hopefully everything will work out ok, but it must be a scary time for them.  She's a tough unit, but this something else.

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42 minutes ago, Mike Honcho said:

My Federal agency SMSd me at midnight and informed me I have to present at 4pm tomorrow for compulsory testing. They have been taking it very seriously since mid March. Masks, gloves, skeleton crews. They even kicked everyone out of the facility yesterday to disinfect. We have drones flying up and down streets as well as airport fire trucks spraying the whole city. Our curve is pointing the right was over the last week with percentage infection imcreases of 26 26 23 19 20 18 14 13

 

Watching ScoMo's shit show in comparison makes me embarrassed to be Australian. 

Based on the stats we are seeing Australia's infection rate has been under 5% for the last 6 days, not sure  how that is embarrassing? 

 

People will take any opportunity to have a shot at the government though.

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3 minutes ago, Toolish said:

Based on the stats we are seeing Australia's infection rate has been under 5% for the last 6 days, not sure  how that is embarrassing? 

 

People will take any opportunity to have a shot at the government though.

Yeah, I think we are doing pretty bloody well so far. 

I'm not a fan of either of our tiers of Govt (NSW/ FED) but so far in this crisis I think they are both doing a pretty decent job given the circumstances. 

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NZ finally closed the missing part to the lockdown strategy. And it was a big hole.

Now if you enter the country 14 day mandatory quarantine, no self isolation. This to many of us has been the main criticism of the leadership.

 

Couple of other notes (from Auckland):

One thing that got the NZ infection numbers up were were clusters from single events before the social distancing; the big 3 were a wedding, St Patrick's day function and a school concert. All caused by a individual coming from overseas. 

This weekend is probably the test for lockdown with Easter, key activities banned are going to your holiday house, retail and/or religious gatherings. Also the WFH employed will join the rest for 4 days of lockdown, where previously they would have been occupied with there WFH.

In Auckland today is the second day of less nice weather so seeing a drop in all the new exercisers, who are fair weather exercisers.

 

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14 hours ago, roxii said:

I’d be finding a better source for your info 

16 March NSW alone still had more than that 25. 

My site has been updated - Australia +64, NZ +50

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6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

My site has been updated - Australia +64, NZ +50

Bizarre.

Aus govt site has 100+ yesterday 

new-and-cumulative-covid-19-cases-in-australia-by-notification-date_7.png

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21 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

My site has been updated - Australia +64, NZ +50

 

14 minutes ago, roxii said:

Bizarre.

Aus govt site has 100+ yesterday 

 

As I said earlier, IJ's site (Worldometeres) works a 24hr period from 00:00 GMT to 24:00 GMT, where-as the Aus Gov report works in our time. Plus the Worldometers site takes a day or 2 to adjust figures from when they were released to when they happened.

Edited by Ex-Hasbeen

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Just now, Ex-Hasbeen said:

 Plaus the Worlometers site takes a day or 2 to adjust figures from when they were released to when they happened.

Yeah, still seems a bit screwy compared to Aus govt data.

Anyhoo! 

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7 hours ago, Go Easy said:

Any updates on Chrissy yet?  They are meant to be flying home today or tomorrow.

Hopefully everything will work out ok, but it must be a scary time for them.  She's a tough unit, but this something else.

Hey Go Easy, I agree with that. Here is a picture with me, her and Sunny Girl in one of the best weeks of our lives. I hope you are going OK and I hope Chrissy is staying strong. She should be home soon, but then needs to bunker down in Quarantine. 

Hawaii 2012.jpg

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34 minutes ago, Mr Flower said:

Hey Go Easy, I agree with that. Here is a picture with me, her and Sunny Girl in one of the best weeks of our lives. I hope you are going OK and I hope Chrissy is staying strong. She should be home soon, but then needs to bunker down in Quarantine. 

Hawaii 2012.jpg

My wife and I used those T-shirts as "jammies" for 2013.😆😆😆😆

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8 hours ago, roxii said:

Yeah, I think we are doing pretty bloody well so far. 

I'm not a fan of either of our tiers of Govt (NSW/ FED) but so far in this crisis I think they are both doing a pretty decent job given the circumstances. 

Spot on

 

NSF

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Good to see this thread has got itself back on track.

For those who are wondering why New Zealand has gone full lockdown ahead of Australia, it is important to consider the resources each country has to draw upon in the worst case scenario. It is not simply a matter of one leader being better than other, more that there expert panels are advising what needs to be done in the situation.

For example, New Zealand has roughly half the number of ICU beds per capita that Australia has. It is easy to see why they need to avoid the overwhelming situation.

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3 hours ago, Mr Flower said:

Hey Go Easy, I agree with that. Here is a picture with me, her and Sunny Girl in one of the best weeks of our lives. I hope you are going OK and I hope Chrissy is staying strong. She should be home soon, but then needs to bunker down in Quarantine. 

Hawaii 2012.jpg

It was a great week, and very special for a lot of us!

Yes, hopefully Chrissy's ok.  Quarantine won't be nice, but I reckon she'll be glad when she gets there!

PS - There's a few tough individuals in that photo! :thumbsup:

 

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There’s a fair bit of commentary in the press over the last couple of days as to whether or not we have gone too hard too early. As this is new to all of us I have no idea what the answer is - clearly Italy (for example) didn’t go hard enough but what is our exit plan?  Do we wait for a vaccine whilst completing isolating the country and separately the States/Territories? Do we have a three tiered passport system - at risk/yet to have it/had it and just the immune get to go out to work/play?  I just don’t see loosening and re-tightening of that bottle cap multiple times to control outbreaks as an answer. Apart from anything that could last an extended period of time and, at some point, the treasury cupboard will be bare. So what’s the solution in absence of any direction from those making the rules?

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I thought the bushfires were the crisis we needed to have in Oz, but maybe it is this?

Still, though it's bad, if you have any interest in history, it's not looking like the apocalypse. Imagine being in London in 1940-41 when German bombers came over almost every night & wondering if it was your street & family that was going to be obliterated next.  Or worse, in Dresden in 1945 when the Brits & Yanks created a bombing firestorm killing more than 25,000 civilians in 3 days.

 

Edited by ComfortablyNumb

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On 09/04/2020 at 9:28 AM, more said:

You need to bare in mind this was very early in he piece and he had very mild symptoms and followed the official recommendations at the time. Wasn't all that long ago we were still allowed to travel etc, a lot changes in a few weeks.

No he didn’t he went beyond the official advice at the time and had himself tested then was hung out to dry by the Vic health minister in a presser when if he followed her guidelines would have still been treating and not been tested

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Border patrols have made a big score this time. At a routine crossing check, the police checked the vehicle & found 93kg of cannabis. He was arrested & charged with that, and also slapped with a $1300 fine for breaching the current public health orders.

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2 hours ago, truck said:

There’s a fair bit of commentary in the press over the last couple of days as to whether or not we have gone too hard too early.

With these sorts of virus pandemics you can't really go too hard too early.

 

2 hours ago, truck said:

but what is our exit plan?

and that's an unknown.

What going hard/early does though is buy time to work that stuff out. Mistakes can be corrected, rather than get away from you.

It provides for the luxury of being able to devote more resources to working on the strategic planning rather than being all consumed by firefighting / tactical emergency responses.

But no matter which path is ultimately taken, we are all in for a very long haul.

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