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Here is a radical yet simple approach. Take the high end of the incubation period 14 days:

Everyone in the world (except really critical, really critical and we test these people and isolate them before the 14 days).

Lock down, do not leave, take your temp.

If symptomatic tele doctor go to treatment

Test everyone (ok that's where it falls down a bit but test as much as you can, no just symptomatic but sample people in areas to get an idea where the virus is, do we can control it).

In 14 days we have done what is needed starve the virus cold of what it needs hosts.

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The trouble is, some people wouldn’t stay home.  
 

I think China did 76 days like your suggestion Barry.  
 

I agree with what you say 100%.  
 

its what I’d prefer to do. 

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2 minutes ago, Peter said:

The trouble is, some people wouldn’t stay home.  
 

I think China did 76 days like your suggestion Barry.  
 

I agree with what you say 100%.  
 

its what I’d prefer to do. 

Yes, so lets grow some as most of us have already been in some sort of lock down and test our miltary deploy them and make people stay home.

It will stop it cold and we can then manage the risk of spread as we will have a good geoint picture. Apply those meta data laws and do what we can do anyway and track people.

The phillipines guy said he would shoot people who break his order. Sure we won't get a 100 % eradicatoin but we could go back to life with reasonable controls around temperature monitoring until we get cheap mass testing and a vaccine.

If we don't do this then sure jus go survival of the fittest but we are doing this have pregnant crap

 

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38 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Here is a radical yet simple approach. Take the high end of the incubation period 14 days:

Everyone in the world (except really critical, really critical and we test these people and isolate them before the 14 days).

Lock down, do not leave, take your temp.

If symptomatic tele doctor go to treatment

Test everyone (ok that's where it falls down a bit but test as much as you can, no just symptomatic but sample people in areas to get an idea where the virus is, do we can control it).

In 14 days we have done what is needed starve the virus cold of what it needs hosts.

Apparently the standard guideline is to do the incubation period x 2 so 28 days should do it but yeah. 

Problem occurs with food etc.  How do we feed everyone for 28 days if NO ONE is allowed out.  As soon as you say shops and restaurants need to open and uber drivers deliver you have breached the lockdown. 

Does the army deliver everyone a 28 day survival pack? 

 

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1 hour ago, BarryBevan said:

Here is a radical yet simple approach. Take the high end of the incubation period 14 days:

Everyone in the world (except really critical, really critical and we test these people and isolate them before the 14 days).

Lock down, do not leave, take your temp.

If symptomatic tele doctor go to treatment

Test everyone (ok that's where it falls down a bit but test as much as you can, no just symptomatic but sample people in areas to get an idea where the virus is, do we can control it).

In 14 days we have done what is needed starve the virus cold of what it needs hosts.

Maybe somewhere like Tasmania, or NZ should trial it. Somewhere isolated that can shut borders, yet big enough to do a meaningful trial.

31 minutes ago, roxii said:

Does the army deliver everyone a 28 day survival pack?

I know a lot of people that would be looking for more food in 2 days.

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I think part of the problem is that up to 30% of carriers are asymptomatic, so if we're only isolating/treating symptomatic people after the 14 days are over those people will continue to spread it.  But I guess a 28 day total lockdown period might be long enough for those people to recover and have immunity (for a while at least).  Sounds better than being in this "almost but not quite" lockdown for 6+ months.

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1 hour ago, roxii said:

Apparently the standard guideline is to do the incubation period x 2 so 28 days should do it but yeah. 

Problem occurs with food etc.  How do we feed everyone for 28 days if NO ONE is allowed out.  As soon as you say shops and restaurants need to open and uber drivers deliver you have breached the lockdown. 

Does the army deliver everyone a 28 day survival pack? 

 

Yes with Phillipines style enforcement 

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45 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Maybe somewhere like Tasmania, or NZ should trial it. Somewhere isolated that can shut borders, yet big enough to do a meaningful trial.

I know a lot of people that would be looking for more food in 2 days.

Reduce obesity 

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On the plus side the Easter road toll should be greatly reduced. 

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5 minutes ago, -H- said:

I think part of the problem is that up to 30% of carriers are asymptomatic, so if we're only isolating/treating symptomatic people after the 14 days are over those people will continue to spread it.  But I guess a 28 day total lockdown period might be long enough for those people to recover and have immunity (for a while at least).  Sounds better than being in this "almost but not quite" lockdown for 6+ months.

Until vaccine it’s about risk if we can stop it cold for a few weeks we are in a better place 

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10 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Until vaccine it’s about risk if we can stop it cold for a few weeks we are in a better place 

Maybe here in Aus, but if you look at places with higher population density it won't do much in the long term other than buy a few weeks to replenish medical supplies and clear a few ICU beds.

On March 10th the US had less than 1,000 cases identified. Ten days later on the 20th they were identifying over 5,000 new cases every day. Another 10 days and they had over 165,000 cases.

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2 hours ago, BarryBevan said:

Yes, so lets grow some as most of us have already been in some sort of lock down and test our miltary deploy them and make people stay home.

Aside from a multitude of logistical issues which make a complete lockdown impossible to achieve, there are significant constitutional issues when it comes to the deployment of military/defence force for civil/domestic law and order.

 

The very act of policing such a strong lockdown would itself be a breach of the lockdown. Then you have all the essential services that still have to be performed. Energy, water, food, medical services and supplies for a start. Emergency services. All the multitude of people who rely on in-home care for basic like being fed and hygiene. Hospitals. Production and distribution of essential products. This list is endless. Shut all that down and even more people die.

There are nearly 10 million households in Australia. There is simply no way to provide for that many individual households other than via the existing distribution infrastructure and systems. There are less than 60,000 active armed forces service personnel and another 20,000 or so reserves. The transport and distribution sector in Australia employs over 500,000 people. And that's delivering our goods via the existing methods (which involves a high degree of self service by the end customer).

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isn't the idea just to slow the spread of the virus to enable health system to cope?  the only way, short of a vaccine which despite some news reports to the contrary will be at least 12 months away, is to develop herd immunity which requires sufficient numbers to have had the disease?  Total lock down will not enable this to happen from what I can understand.

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1 hour ago, -H- said:

Sounds better than being in this "almost but not quite" lockdown for 6+ months.

Not if thousands more lose their jobs it wouldn’t be 

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8 minutes ago, Prince said:

Not if thousands more lose their jobs it wouldn’t be 

Thousands more out of a job for 28 days and then hundreds of thousands that have already lost their jobs back at work in 28 days, or the hundreds of thousands that have already lost their jobs, not getting back for 6+ months. There's hundreds of thousands that would prefer the 28 days.

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7 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Thousands more out of a job for 28 days and then hundreds of thousands that have already lost their jobs back at work in 28 days, or the hundreds of thousands that have already lost their jobs, not getting back for 6+ months. There's hundreds of thousands that would prefer the 28 days.

It's a bit like going to the physio.  You go, pay them some money, do exactly what they say and then 28 days later you still have the same problem...

It only takes one 'live' person back in the community and it all starts again until there's a vaccine.  The reality is that it is going to be an ongoing risk that will need to be managed for some time going forwards so stopping everything for 28 days is never going to be the answer. 

I also like the cautions to the modeling that they are releasing - basically highly theoretical, based on other countries/cultures and therefore highly unlikely to be accurate.  I guess a bit like most of the other financial forecast modeling that I see then.

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4 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Thousands more out of a job for 28 days and then hundreds of thousands that have already lost their jobs back at work in 28 days, or the hundreds of thousands that have already lost their jobs, not getting back for 6+ months. There's hundreds of thousands that would prefer the 28 days.

nothing would be achieved in a full lockdown for 28 days. If anyone thinks everything would be back to normal after that, they are in dreamland. 

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Just now, Prince said:

nothing would be achieved in a full lockdown for 28 days. If anyone thinks everything would be back to normal after that, they are in dreamland. 

Yeah, I know that, and basically said the same a few hours ago if you look at how quickly it jumps as soon as you get cases in a densely populated area. Isolated places could try it, but then they'd have to be incredibly vigilant with border control & testing once they try to go back to "normal". 

But at this point, the general public would swallow any story to try to get back some semblance of normality.

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13 minutes ago, truck said:

It's a bit like going to the physio.  You go, pay them some money, do exactly what they say and then 28 days later you still have the same problem...

It only takes one 'live' person back in the community and it all starts again until there's a vaccine.  The reality is that it is going to be an ongoing risk that will need to be managed for some time going forwards so stopping everything for 28 days is never going to be the answer. 

I also like the cautions to the modeling that they are releasing - basically highly theoretical, based on other countries/cultures and therefore highly unlikely to be accurate.  I guess a bit like most of the other financial forecast modeling that I see then.

You must either going to very ordinary physio or not actually following what they told you to do.  In most cases to is the later.  

Edited by Fitness Buddy

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2 hours ago, roxii said:

Apparently the standard guideline is to do the incubation period x 2 so 28 days should do it but yeah. 

Problem occurs with food etc.  How do we feed everyone for 28 days if NO ONE is allowed out.  As soon as you say shops and restaurants need to open and uber drivers deliver you have breached the lockdown. 

Does the army deliver everyone a 28 day survival pack? 

 

But then the army guys could spread it.  

12 minutes ago, truck said:

It's a bit like going to the physio.  You go, pay them some money, do exactly what they say and then 28 days later you still have the same problem...

haha

It's why I have always said, physios are a joke.  Come back again in 2 days. Then in another 2 days.

Please.  

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2 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Yeah, I know that, and basically said the same a few hours ago if you look at how quickly it jumps as soon as you get cases in a densely populated area. Isolated places could try it, but then they'd have to be incredibly vigilant with border control & testing once they try to go back to "normal". 

But at this point, the general public would swallow any story to try to get back some semblance of normality.

so far, I can't see it has worked in New Zealand, even with the lag.  they have Been racking up more cases than OZ over the past few days. 

I also think pushing the community for more restrictive measures will push people over the edge. Many are already getting cranky. To me, all we need to worry about is to ensure hospitals are not overwhelmed. 

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11 minutes ago, Prince said:

nothing would be achieved in a full lockdown for 28 days. If anyone thinks everything would be back to normal after that, they are in dreamland. 

 Until we get a vaccine this is a major problem. If we lock down properly (we already tanked the economy by taking a holiday because industry are a bunch of cee you next tuesdays).

28 days of real lock down would limit the spread of the virus giving us a chance to control track and implement a plan not knee jerk social distance.

The virus needs bodies if we intervene and deprive we make a big impact and then have a better idea of the situation and can control, ramp up tests.

Stop it in its tracks and the operationally manage the situation properly with a real commander not politicians.

 

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1 hour ago, Alex Simmons said:

Aside from a multitude of logistical issues which make a complete lockdown impossible to achieve, there are significant constitutional issues when it comes to the deployment of military/defence force for civil/domestic law and order.

 

The very act of policing such a strong lockdown would itself be a breach of the lockdown. Then you have all the essential services that still have to be performed. Energy, water, food, medical services and supplies for a start. Emergency services. All the multitude of people who rely on in-home care for basic like being fed and hygiene. Hospitals. Production and distribution of essential products. This list is endless. Shut all that down and even more people die.

There are nearly 10 million households in Australia. There is simply no way to provide for that many individual households other than via the existing distribution infrastructure and systems. There are less than 60,000 active armed forces service personnel and another 20,000 or so reserves. The transport and distribution sector in Australia employs over 500,000 people. And that's delivering our goods via the existing methods (which involves a high degree of self service by the end customer).

Focus testing on those who will supply, reduce the risk and the spread not kill it, we need a vaccine. If 15 million people are home that is better.

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6 minutes ago, Prince said:

so far, I can't see it has worked in New Zealand, even with the lag.  they have Been racking up more cases than OZ over the past few days. 

I also think pushing the community for more restrictive measures will push people over the edge. Many are already getting cranky. To me, all we need to worry about is to ensure hospitals are not overwhelmed. 

I agree with willie shut it down this place is worse than CV

Edited by BarryBevan
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3 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

 Until we get a vaccine this is a major problem. If we lock down properly (we already tanked the economy by taking a holiday because industry are a bunch of cee you next tuesdays).

28 days of real lock down would limit the spread of the virus giving us a chance to control track and implement a plan not knee jerk social distance.

The virus needs bodies if we intervene and deprive we make a big impact and then have a better idea of the situation and can control, ramp up tests.

Stop it in its tracks and the operationally manage the situation properly with a real commander not politicians.

 

so far, social distancing seems to be working and we haven't tanked the whole economy.  Our mining and construction industry for example is keeping us in the game. And as per all models suggest, we still need some herd immunity.  now is not the time to panic. 

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8 minutes ago, Prince said:

so far, social distancing seems to be working and we haven't tanked the whole economy.  Our mining and construction industry for example is keeping us in the game. And as per all models suggest, we still need some herd immunity.  now is not the time to panic. 

Sorry mate I’m m trying to deal with being in the USA and a critically ill relative and I want to fix it

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22 minutes ago, Peter said:

But then the army guys could spread it.  

Nah mate, parachute it in by blackhawk.  Sweeeet! 

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1 minute ago, BarryBevan said:

Sorry mate I’m m trying to deal with being in the USA and a critically ill relative and I want to fix it

Oh.  Yeah I agree the USA situation is definitely screwed at the moment.  They need a lockdown ASAP.  

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2 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Sorry mate I’m m trying to deal with being in the USA and a critically ill relative and I want to fix it

USA vs Australia at the moment is a very different situation.  USA, or at least parts of it, need to lock down hard based on case numbers and growth.

 

In Australia the case numbers are declining and if we follow the current trend within a week or so the active cases will be declining (although it seems recoveries aren't that well reported).

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Quote

But then the army guys could spread it.  

Maybe we could use these guys for lock-down enforcement?

I, Robot - Official Trailer [HD] - YouTube

Edited by Ex-Hasbeen

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Makes you realise how well we are doing by comparison.  Recoveries are reported, just not as widely as deaths.

Capture.PNG

Capture2.PNG

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4 minutes ago, -H- said:

Makes you realise how well we are doing by comparison.  Recoveries are reported, just not as widely as deaths.

Capture.PNG

Capture2.PNG

Yep, we've dropped out of the top 20. At this rate we'll be out of the top 30 in another week. 

Never wanted to drop down the results page so quick in my life. :)

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10 minutes ago, -H- said:

Makes you realise how well we are doing by comparison.  Recoveries are reported, just not as widely as deaths.

Capture.PNG

Capture2.PNG

 

Where is this chart from?

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Interesting the media is printing positive reports about the number of deaths in Italy are dropping, they have also stopped testing most people in nursing homes, who are dropping like flies....

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2 hours ago, Cat Lady said:

isn't the idea just to slow the spread of the virus to enable health system to cope?  the only way, short of a vaccine which despite some news reports to the contrary will be at least 12 months away, is to develop herd immunity which requires sufficient numbers to have had the disease?  Total lock down will not enable this to happen from what I can understand.

Herd immunity requires >60% of the population to have been infected. To manage the infections at a rate such that ICU capacity can cope would take about a decade.

Else if you want to infect that many people over say 6-12 months, then we can expect 50,000 - 100,000 COVID-19 deaths.

Not sure we are up for for that option.

We'll be in a form of lockdown for ~18 months.

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1 hour ago, BarryBevan said:

Focus testing on those who will supply, reduce the risk and the spread not kill it, we need a vaccine. If 15 million people are home that is better.

The option to eradicate the virus passed us by months ago.

Yes, we can use strategic testing to constantly monitor outbreaks and apply local lockdowns. It also requires strong contact tracing process which I'm not so sure we are doing quite so well. The amount and frequency of testing required to achieve this is at least an order of magnitude greater than we are doing now (and Australia has the highest testing ratio in the world).

Remember that each person who tests negative is still susceptible to the virus, so single tests are insufficient. And tests are not perfect, there are still false positives and false negatives. Plus different tests for the virus (you have it) and tests for the antibodies (you've had it).

No matter what we do, large sections of society are going to be in hibernation for the next 18 months.

We face a terrible dilemma and our collective anxiety levels are through the roof.

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3 hours ago, Prince said:

so far, I can't see it has worked in New Zealand, even with the lag.  they have Been racking up more cases than OZ over the past few days. 

I also think pushing the community for more restrictive measures will push people over the edge. Many are already getting cranky. To me, all we need to worry about is to ensure hospitals are not overwhelmed. 

 

More cases than OZ in what way Prince? 

The New Zealand has just 1 death, currently 12 in hospital with 4 of them in intensive, lower infection rate per mil. Their infection rate is dropping and just today recorded their lowest daily increase in the last 2 weeks. Washington Post headline  headline today is "New Zealand isn't flattening the curve. they're squashing it".   

Edited by Mike Del
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3 hours ago, Alex Simmons said:

And tests are not perfect, there are still false positives and false negatives.

I heard yesterday 20% false negatives.

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1 hour ago, Mike Del said:

 

More cases than OZ in what way Prince? 

The New Zealand has just 1 death, currently 12 in hospital with 4 of them in intensive, lower infection rate per mil. Their infection rate is dropping and just today recorded their lowest daily increase in the last 2 weeks. Washington Post headline  headline today is "New Zealand isn't flattening the curve. they're squashing it".   

They were in lockdown but have more daily infections than oz.   

Also the same infection rate per million as oz with no full lockdown. 
 

and less tests conducted per million than Oz. 

Edited by Prince

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12 minutes ago, Prince said:

They were in lockdown but have more daily infections than oz.

NZ has never had more infections per day that Australia.

NZ has never had more than 100 new cases per day.

From NZ Dept of Health.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases

7B4QMsh.png

Mean Australia has only just had its first day with less than 100 new cases in over three weeks.

https://www.covid19data.com.au/

qfufj3D.png

 

Note that the NZ data includes "probable" cases as well as confirmed, while Australia's is only confirmed cases.

Edited by Alex Simmons

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5 minutes ago, Prince said:

If you read what I said, I said in the last two days.  Geeezzz

And if you look at the data, that's not true either.

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14 minutes ago, Alex Simmons said:

And if you look at the data, that's not true either.

whatever.  you missed the point. 

I hadn't updated the figures I had re cases per day, however cases per million are the same as OZ and with more testing in oz with no complete shutdown, I dont think NZ is anything special at this stage.  My point is a shutdown is not needed

Depending when Adern lifts the shutdown, that will be the real test.

Edited by Prince

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4 hours ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Image may contain: text

I also need to point out that because the world is flat the 5G cell towers can be spread out a lot more as there is none of that pesky curvature getting in the way. 

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1 hour ago, Prince said:

whatever.  you missed the point. 

I hadn't updated the figures I had re cases per day, however cases per million are the same as OZ and with more testing in oz with no complete shutdown, I dont think NZ is anything special at this stage.  My point is a shutdown is not needed

Depending when Adern lifts the shutdown, that will be the real test.

You can’t say whatever when someone prove your statements wrong with facts. 
 

you seriously need to take a break. 

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