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and the new zealand health minister has been busted taking his kids for a walk and mountain biking.  do as I say, not as I do.

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8 hours ago, The Customer said:

You mean, it's not only China fudging the numbers? I'm shocked!

The real impact won't likely be known for years. In some cases it's deliberately fudged, in some it's simply inadequate data collection, others wilful ignorance. About the only way to know is to collate all the relevant death data (e.g. burials/services) from local towns and cities. It's a different time, but there was massive govt suppression of data on the Spanish flu in the USA that was not lifted until 1970s. It took a combined effort of reporters across the nation to collate data from local papers on death notices to expose what was really going on.

The under reporting of infections in much of the Americas is large, like order of magnitude large.

Australian data will be wrong too, but probability is it's not nearly as wrong as in many other countries and for that we can be thankful.

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1 hour ago, The Customer said:

I know someone working in the ICU unit where Bojo is. I just heard that he is in worse condition than they are letting on and he might be ventilated at over night. He's at high risk because he's overweight and unfit. They have him faced down to help get air in his lungs.

The Scottish Gov also stood the Health Minister down today because she left her home in Edi to visit her holiday home in Fife. Sturgeon has been the picture of diplomacy through all of this. I really rate her.

That was yesterday and about three pages back.  

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6 minutes ago, FatPom said:

That was yesterday and about three pages back.  

We are still trying to work out why anyone would holiday in Fife

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3 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

We are still trying to work out why anyone would holiday in Fife

Much less buy a 2nd home there.  The locals dobbed her in, probably thought she was lost!

Edited by FatPom
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3 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

We are still trying to work out why anyone would holiday in Fife

Crail and Pittenweem are nice. And come on... St Andrews is in Fife. You're selling Fife short. 

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1 minute ago, The Customer said:

3 pages back in English news😂😂😂

When you pay all the bills, that's the only news that counts. 👍

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12 minutes ago, Alex Simmons said:

The real impact won't likely be known for years. In some cases it's deliberately fudged, in some it's simply inadequate data collection, others wilful ignorance. About the only way to know is to collate all the relevant death data (e.g. burials/services) from local towns and cities. It's a different time, but there was massive govt suppression of data on the Spanish flu in the USA that was not lifted until 1970s. It took a combined effort of reporters across the nation to collate data from local papers on death notices to expose what was really going on.

The under reporting of infections in much of the Americas is large, like order of magnitude large.

Australian data will be wrong too, but probability is it's not nearly as wrong as in many other countries and for that we can be thankful.

Alex, think they all agree the infections are much higher and as the tests are for those who are symptomatic and critical front line staff we have no idea what the number is, juts that it is a lot higher.

NH have tested more than Australia per million so they should be able to work something out of that data.  NY has 120k positives and have done 320k of tests, they have got to keep testing and isolating and treating as best we can without a vaccine

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1 minute ago, The Customer said:

Crail and Pittenweem are nice. And come on... St Andrews is in Fife. You're selling Fife short. 

Hah fancy fife, need to get out to Dunfermline, Rosyth and Inverkeithing on a Friday, scene of the most dominant swimming performance ever where I won 4 golds on the night Jaws was on telly which I missed

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16 minutes ago, FatPom said:

That was yesterday and about three pages back.  

To be fair, this thread is so full of shit and moving quicker than the Virus itself.

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7 minutes ago, nealo said:

To be fair, this thread is so full of shit and moving quicker than the Virus itself.

Do you think a few in here should practice some “digital distancing” ? 

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16 minutes ago, The Customer said:

3 pages back in English news😂😂😂

I never picked Boris as a page 3 candidate in the English papers. :)

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6 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

I never picked Boris as a page 3 candidate in the English papers. :)

Why not, he's got the baps for it? 

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2 minutes ago, roxii said:

Why not, he's got the baps for it? 

I liked boris as mayor of London especially during the Olympics. I hope he recovers, we all need a Boris in our lives even to chuckle at his moobs.

This reminds me of my favourite tri topic, back when this place was more fun, why do so many men triathletes have moobs and muffin tops

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Quote

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has warned the state's tough coronavirus social-distancing restrictions will stay "until a vaccine is found",

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-07/coronavirus-deaths-in-australia-climb-social-distancing-to-stay/12126802

Hope it takes less time to find one than it has to find a vaccine for HIV.

AJ

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Just now, -- AJ -- said:

Hope it takes less time to find one than it has to find a vaccine for HIV.

AJ

Bill Gates is putting Billions in and running 7 in parallel  which is not what they normally do. We will overcome

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30 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Bill Gates is putting Billions in and running 7 in parallel  which is not what they normally do. We will overcome

Maybe it shouldn't be Bill Gates involved in this.  His previous track record concerning preventing virus infections isn't too flash

#ITJoke 

AJ

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4 minutes ago, -- AJ -- said:

Maybe it shouldn't be Bill Gates involved in this.  His previous track record concerning preventing virus infections isn't too flash

#ITJoke 

AJ

He's not been sick since 95

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2 hours ago, BarryBevan said:

Alex, think they all agree the infections are much higher and as the tests are for those who are symptomatic and critical front line staff we have no idea what the number is, juts that it is a lot higher.

NH have tested more than Australia per million so they should be able to work something out of that data.  NY has 120k positives and have done 320k of tests, they have got to keep testing and isolating and treating as best we can without a vaccine

BTW - When I said Americas, I was referring to North, Central and South America. e.g. the under reporting is Brazil is likely to be significant. One state had more deaths last week from respiratory disease (not listed as COVID-19) than the official cumulative death toll for the whole nation. And that local weekly toll (>400) was nearly 10 times that for the same period last year. Another city has brought in containers to hold 3,000 corpses, while another city has dug and filled hundreds of graves in the space of a week, well beyond their normal demand.

There are clearly some individual US states and cities with much more reliable data than others.

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So Gladys said as much today, but we are here for the indefinite future.  I am hearing 3 months at current levels in NSW before perhaps a "test" slackening, but not back to public gatherings and pubs/clubs open like the good ole days.  Schools are preparing term 2 for entire remote delivery.  The likelihood of a mass vaccine is remote at best (the current flu one takes 12 months, incubated in an egg, and is used/accessible to a fraction of the worlds population), so minimising transmission of a rapidly transmittable virus is all we have at our disposable.   If I had a business affected by the current rules, serious thoughts need to go towards re-invention.  The oldies die sure, but nearly all the ones under 70 have obesity in common, or are smokers.  That is a shitload of the worlds population in the gunsights.  I feel for the 65+ers who now either hole up and wither away avoiding it, or live their lives and take their chances...

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4 minutes ago, Diamonds said:

The oldies die sure, but nearly all the ones under 70 have obesity in common, or are smokers.  

How do you know that out of interest ?

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9 hours ago, Peter said:

Telstra now 

 

Not all Telstra, only the ones playing away from home maybe? You on the peninsula?

8E986660-BE3E-4CE4-A17E-9FB5E8DE6B26.png

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1 hour ago, Diamonds said:

So Gladys said as much today, but we are here for the indefinite future. 

I've been wondering how long it was going to take one of the leaders to articulate this fundamental reality.

As a nation we are going to be making some difficult choices about the path ahead. The more personal freedom we permit, the more die from COVID-19. Have it locked down too tight for too long and more die or suffer injury (physical/mental) from other causes. Some factors are also out of our control - there is also a randomness to such things.

Layer onto that the safety net provided by governments isn't going to be possible to maintain for this duration, makes for even trickier calls ahead.

Rock, meet hard place.

Edited by Alex Simmons

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Hopefully, as this continues, governments will be able to make more informed and controlled decisions, with more knowledge of how this plays out in other countries, more data, more testing and tracing, improved science (eg serological testing?), etc.

The good thing about being on steep learning curve is that you're learning quickly.

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Non-quarantining Qantas crew from Santiago 7 days ago now testing positive.  Just on ABC news.  "Quarantine exemption to be reviewed in coming days"...🙄

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2 hours ago, Prince said:

How do you know that out of interest ?

Its what The data out of Spain is saying. 

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6 minutes ago, Peter said:

Its what The data out of Spain is saying. 

not what I have read,  I call rubbish on this sorry. 

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22 minutes ago, Prince said:

not what I have read,  I call rubbish on this sorry. 

That is your right.  I am happy to be judged down the line.  I dont need to reveal my sources.

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26 minutes ago, Prince said:

not what I have read,  I call rubbish on this sorry. 

You just want to argue with everyone. 
its time you had a break. 

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Just now, Peter said:

You just want to argue with everyone. 
its time you had a break. 

I dont have any need to argue.  I just think a reckless statement should be called out, especially as it gives a lot of people a false sense of security. If you can't understand that, I feel sorry for you. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Diamonds said:

That is your right.  I am happy to be judged down the line.  I dont need to reveal my sources.

...ah,, maybe there are no sources? 

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2 hours ago, Diamonds said:

So Gladys said as much today, but we are here for the indefinite future.  I am hearing 3 months at current levels in NSW before perhaps a "test" slackening, but not back to public gatherings and pubs/clubs open like the good ole days.  Schools are preparing term 2 for entire remote delivery.  The likelihood of a mass vaccine is remote at best (the current flu one takes 12 months, incubated in an egg, and is used/accessible to a fraction of the worlds population), so minimising transmission of a rapidly transmittable virus is all we have at our disposable.   If I had a business affected by the current rules, serious thoughts need to go towards re-invention.  The oldies die sure, but nearly all the ones under 70 have obesity in common, or are smokers.  That is a shitload of the worlds population in the gunsights.  I feel for the 65+ers who now either hole up and wither away avoiding it, or live their lives and take their chances...

I'm 66 next week, Type 2 diabetic, numerous health issues, unfit and a cigar smoker, when do you think a. I'll get it and b. when will I kark it. We could run a sweep.

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7 minutes ago, Prince said:

...ah,, maybe there are no sources? 

Knowing Diamonds line of work and his wife’s I’d say his Between them their sources will be pretty reliable. 

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19 minutes ago, oldave said:

I'm 66 next week, Type 2 diabetic, numerous health issues, unfit and a cigar smoker, when do you think a. I'll get it and b. when will I kark it. We could run a sweep.

We could do that, but if people self isolate when they should, you shouldn't encounter it in theory.   My parents and inlaws are in your boat, hence the end to my post.  Both pretty much waiting things out at home.

How about putting it this way for Princes benefit?  If the scientific and medical advice to government wasnt rock solid, tell me the upside to any of these governments around the world putting prohibitive restrictions on people and their own economies?  The ramping up of medical facilities and recruiting of staff and associates training etc again point to the seriousness.  The weight of medical staff shouting from the rooftops, pretty much in the absence of dissenters again spells it out.  This is very serious for some.  Not dangerous for others, except they are the spreaders.   Look at the result of the Ruby Princess where people are jammed in and associating.  No thanks.   In regards to the obesity and smoking links, I was already of that mind after some reading and podcasts, but Peter is right.  That info is coming to our medics out of other nations.  

 

Edited by Diamonds

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2 minutes ago, roxii said:

Knowing Diamonds line of work and his wife’s I’d say his Between them their sources will be pretty reliable. 

oh cmon Roxii, you know better than that. its not personal. 

the statement of  " nearly all the ones under 70 (deaths) have obesity in common, or are smokers"   is a pretty big call. 

all I asked was where is this documented??  very happy to be corrected and shown.  

very big difference in saying the above are risk factors to absolutes. 

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3 minutes ago, Diamonds said:

.  No thanks.   In regards to the obesity and smoking links, I was already of that mind after some reading and podcasts, but Peter is right.  That info is coming to our medics out of other nations.  

 

yet you seem positive that the majority of deaths under 60 were obese or smokers.  show me the money....

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Just now, Diamonds said:

who talked absolutes?

see below.  I think you did. 

3 hours ago, Diamonds said:

but nearly all the ones under 70 have obesity in common, or are smokers.  That is a shitload of the worlds population in the gunsights. 

 

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It is actually pretty broad, obese or smokers.  I am sure the  official numbers will come out in the wash.  You can hold me to account later if needed.

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14 minutes ago, Prince said:

oh cmon Roxii, you know better than that. its not personal. 

Not saying it’s personal,  did not take it that way or mean it that way, it’s not my thing.

Just that Diamonds posted earlier about his and his wife’s association with the virus response. And it puts them in a pretty good spot to get access to that data. Which may or not be available to the general public. 

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2 minutes ago, Diamonds said:

It is actually pretty broad, obese or smokers.  I am sure the  official numbers will come out in the wash.  You can hold me to account later if needed.

ok

1 minute ago, roxii said:

Not saying it’s personal,  did not take it that way or mean it that way, it’s not my thing.

Just that Diamonds posted earlier about his and his wife’s association with the virus response. And it puts them in a pretty good spot to get access to that data. Which may or not be available to the general public. 

maybe he should have said that he has world data which states this, but this isn't available to anyone. 

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2 hours ago, chris said:

My phone as had it for 2 weeks

They released it on Iphones first. 

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I do still wonder whether the media are beating this up just for sensationalism sake, or whether they are being asked to catastrophise this to keep everyone “on their toes” 

there does not seem to be much focus on the recovery rate or the number of active cases just the reporting of the rise in total diagnosed cases and deaths. 

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Roxie I believe you are correct 

thr modling they released is bullshit, how can you compare Australia with China or USA. We just don’t have the density.

i am in wa we currently have under 300 isolated cases, all the media and scomo etc talk about is th deaths and rising numbers,  

The  journalists need to really push the question re what is the plan because right now based on the stats wa won’t have any cases in 2 weeks and with closed borders surly they can’t keep us restricted,

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