Jump to content
Peter

Coronavirus

Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, The Customer said:

Normally I'd be sceptical but in this case, the people I know in the NHS who are seeing what's going on are saying the lockdown is justified so who am I to speculate. Time will tell.

Yeah I try and get all my information from credible sources or firsthand e.g my mate who is head of infectious diseases at a large UK hospital. She knows her stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

No he didn't. He imposed some restrictions on who could enter. In the first few weeks of March there were still nearly 100 flights a day landing in the US from China.

Don’t bring facts into it when dealing with ironjimbo. We know he doesn’t like them. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, more said:

Choking has killed 3 times more people in Australia than the wuflu, ban solid food! 

"More than 80 people die each year of choking in Australia. Choking is the second largest cause ofdeath in aged care."

You can't pass your choking onto someone else. And I'd bet the number of such deaths could be significantly reduced with improved aged care resourcing.

 

On 03/04/2020 at 9:24 AM, Prince said:

I think you have a bias towards Scomo  just guessing though 

Parliament Is recalled to pass any bill. 
 

Only for that though.

My concern is not limited to Scomo. There have been some pretty interesting calls re the powers of policing made without scrutiny at State level as well.

By and large I think the govt has made some good calls and many of them have had a "come to Jesus" moment about how f'd up we'd be if they didn't take it seriously.

That however does not absolve any of them from appropriate scrutiny and accountability.

This covers a range of decision making, and the health and social policies are but one (hence openness and transparency I think really matters).

Another concerns the enormous amount of money which is going to be granted over the coming months, and probably years. Given the record of governments in directing funding in ways which at times are politically biased (or personally biased/corrupt), it's even more important that scrutiny and accountability is not only assured, but is seen to be assured. When key planks of scrutiny and accountability are abandoned or overly delayed, we should all be very concerned.

Edited by Alex Simmons

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Alex Simmons said:

By and large I think the govt has made some good calls and many of them have had a "come to Jesus" moment about how f'd up we'd be if they didn't take it seriously.

 

I agree with you Alex.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

No he didn't. He imposed some restrictions on who could enter. In the first few weeks of March there were still nearly 100 flights a day landing in the US from China.

Point being he restricted travel for non-Americans and people started to be quarantined despite only six cases being reported in the U.S. at the time.  And was called xenophobic for doing so

Now the narrative among the Peters of the world is that he did nothing so it's all his fault 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, zed said:

I will try and dig up the article. It came from a credible source, but it seems facts about the virus change almost daily. A patient in the UK was found to have 3 different strains of the virus.

The is is from 5th March, but states that genetic mutations are normal and concludes that they aren't really different strains...

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Alex Simmons said:

You can't pass your choking onto someone else. And I'd bet the number of such deaths could be significantly reduced with improved aged care resourcing.

Yes, and millions of people die from all sorts of things every year that could be avoided with improved resourcing.. 

The problem we will/are facing though is how much destruction are we prepared to accept to save x amounts of lives? 

It amazes me that the pain of the reality hasn't been felt or acknowledged yet. Six+ months of lockdown will see many of us posting on this site without a job and no prospect of employment for quite some time. 

When the true social destruction starts to be felt, when the increased rates of suicide, murder, domestic violence, civil unrest and a increasingly likely world war become apparent there will no doubt be some questions asked if it was worth it.. Though we obviously didn't have many options anyway. 

 

Side note, wtf don't we just go full lockdown 2weeks and ban all entry to the country. Eliminate the virus on our island and ban outsider's until there is a cure. Then at least we can get back to work and back to normal? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s pretty much what we are doing in wa, not quite lockdown but there is nothing to do and you can come in anymore 

Edited by chris

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it possible we are doing too good a job in WA? That we're not getting a high enough rate of infection to generate the herd immunity that we are aiming for? That we've gone so far to avoid overwhelming our health care system that we are underutilising it? 

I guess what I am wondering now is, what is the game plan? Eradicate and sit and wait till the is a vaccine? Or develop natural immunity while avoiding crashing the health care system? I don't know what our plan is anymore. Or if we have one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Katz said:

Is it possible we are doing too good a job in WA? That we're not getting a high enough rate of infection to generate the herd immunity that we are aiming for? That we've gone so far to avoid overwhelming our health care system that we are underutilising it? 

I guess what I am wondering now is, what is the game plan? Eradicate and sit and wait till the is a vaccine? Or develop natural immunity while avoiding crashing the health care system? I don't know what our plan is anymore. Or if we have one.

Which is precisely why our governments need to be transparent about the modelling and rationale for their decisions?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, more said:

Side note, wtf don't we just go full lockdown 2weeks and ban all entry to the country. Eliminate the virus on our island and ban outsider's until there is a cure. Then at least we can get back to work and back to normal? 

Banning all entry into the country becomes problematic when we look to see where most of everything we buy comes from.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, more said:

Yes, and millions of people die from all sorts of things every year that could be avoided with improved resourcing.. 

And what this whole episode is demonstrating is these are actually choices we make as a nation, and indeed we could do a lot more about it. Same with the road toll.

 

21 minutes ago, more said:

It amazes me that the pain of the reality hasn't been felt or acknowledged yet. Six+ months of lockdown will see many of us posting on this site without a job and no prospect of employment for quite some time. 

Yes, it's going to be pretty awful for a large number of people and we have no idea of the anticipated social/human costs.

 

21 minutes ago, more said:

Side note, wtf don't we just go full lockdown 2weeks and ban all entry to the country. Eliminate the virus on our island and ban outsider's until there is a cure. Then at least we can get back to work and back to normal? 

I'm not sure "full lockdown" means what you think it means.

Full lockdown from the virus's perspective means every human who is susceptible is out of its reach for as long as the last virus is alive. Since we have community transmission from unknown origins, then full lockdown isn't really achievable. The mere act of Policing it means it can't be.

Our best chance of getting some level of normality back until we have attained herd immunity (by vaccine or infection) is through testing, testing, testing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Banning all entry into the country becomes problematic when we look to see where most of everything we buy comes from.

It's as much about how we pay for it, which requires us to export.

Consider that two of the five biggest export earners for Australia are tourism and education services, both involving large numbers of people coming to the country and which employ hundreds of thousands of Australians. Both sectors have clearly been smashed and there is no normal for them or the sectors they spend money and interact with.

International students alone represent well over half a million people (~550 thousand) spending $32B/year here.

And socially, 29% of us were born overseas, and half of all Australians have at least one parent born overseas. It's a tough pill to swallow for those who are cut off from seeing their loved ones.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, Katz said:

Is it possible we are doing too good a job in WA? That we're not getting a high enough rate of infection to generate the herd immunity that we are aiming for? That we've gone so far to avoid overwhelming our health care system that we are underutilising it? 

I guess what I am wondering now is, what is the game plan? Eradicate and sit and wait till the is a vaccine? Or develop natural immunity while avoiding crashing the health care system? I don't know what our plan is anymore. Or if we have one.

I have a feeling they are going to kill off the virus, with only 250 of so active cases and the majority are cruise ship or travel related and 3 deaths all cruise ship 50 in hospital etc , the current restrictions just don’t make sense now,  our way of living is the best defence, we are not densely populated.

 

Yes i I agree outline he plan 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will also mention I spoke to a client yesterday who’s wife is a nurse And they have no work to do at the moment and and another who is a specialist as no work from next week, 

go figure

Edited by chris

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Alex Simmons said:

 

And socially, 29% of us were born overseas, and half of all Australians have at least one parent born overseas. It's a tough pill to swallow for those who are cut off from seeing their loved ones.

Unfortunately 100% of us are cut off from seeing our loved ones at the moment 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Alex Simmons said:

 

I'm not sure "full lockdown" means what you think it means.

Full lockdown from the virus's perspective means every human who is susceptible is out of its reach for as long as the last virus is alive. Since we have community transmission from unknown origins, then full lockdown isn't really achievable. The mere act of Policing it means it can't be.

Our best chance of getting some level of normality back until we have attained herd immunity (by vaccine or infection) is through testing, testing, testing.

There is transmissions because people are still being in contact with general public. If everyone was forced to remain in doors for two weeks wouldn't that isolate the virus spread to single households? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, more said:

There is transmissions because people are still being in contact with general public. If everyone was forced to remain in doors for two weeks wouldn't that isolate the virus spread to single households? 

Then what?

You have to test every single person you let back out, as up to 20% are asymptomatic, and without testing you may be letting the virus straight back out into the general public.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, chris said:

I will also mention I spoke to a client yesterday who’s wife is a nurse And they have no work to do at the moment and and another who is a specialist as no work from next week, 

go figure

I read an account from a nurse in London about a week ago describing a similar thing.  With elective surgery cancelled and people reluctant to visit a hospital they had a quiet few weeks. Then over the course of 3 days they went from nothing to not having enough ICU beds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, more said:

Unfortunately 100% of us are cut off from seeing our loved ones at the moment 

Not quite. As far as I understand it, you are allowed to have one visitor in your house and are allowed to be outside with one person. They would prefer you to stay within your own household, but you can still see other people...

However there are many people with e.g. elderly parents overseas who don't know if/when they will see them again...  So it's not the same for all...

Edited by SomeTri

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, chris said:

It’s pretty much what we are doing in wa, not quite lockdown but there is nothing to do and you cant come in anymore 

I've never thought there was anything to do in Perth before the virus

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, chris said:

I will also mention I spoke to a client yesterday who’s wife is a nurse And they have no work to do at the moment and and another who is a specialist as no work from next week, 

go figure

 

17 minutes ago, Ironnerd said:

I read an account from a nurse in London about a week ago describing a similar thing.  With elective surgery cancelled and people reluctant to visit a hospital they had a quiet few weeks. Then over the course of 3 days they went from nothing to not having enough ICU beds.

My nephew is a nurse at the  children's in sydney.  Said it's business as usual for the kids.  Only one kid has got the virus and they moved him out to other hospital 

Edited by Peter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I work in a large public hospital and it was quite frantic over the past week or two at least for management working on plans for certain scenarios if/when they arise. Certainly quiet in some areas as has been mentioned elective surgery stopped + outpatients to be seen via Telehealth so quiet in these areas particularly for admin although with nationwide shortage on webcams some Telehealth may not start as soon as we had hoped. Also we have limited visitors to one visitor per day for two hours so just the feel around the hospital it is quieter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, SomeTri said:

Not quite. As far as I understand it, you are allowed to have one visitor in your house and are allowed to be outside with one person. They would prefer you to stay within your own household, but you can still see other people...

However there are many people with e.g. elderly parents overseas who don't know if/when they will see them again...  So it's not the same for all...

Fair, but I'm not sure who would want to see their parents at the moment and be potentially responsible for giving them the virus and killing them.. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 30/03/2020 at 4:10 PM, roxii said:

they say masks are only of use if you have the virus. 
If you have the virus and are out in public at least with a mask there is some barrier between your sneeze etc and the outside world. 
also wearing a mask inhibits the amount of times you touch your face. 
they may not be 100% effective but any barrier is better than none. And it’s not as though it is an expensive measure. 
whilst ever we are still allowing people to go to work and shop I think if we are not taking every precaution why the hell not? 
 

FFS they are doing a great job of confusing the public... 

"The country's deputy chief health officer Professor Paul Kelly has stressed people shouldn't be wearing masks out in public. "

Why in the hell would they say this?? 

And then you read this.. 

"On Friday the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that everyone in the US wear masks when out in public, not just medical staff or those who are unwell." 

 

Edited by more

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, more said:

 

The problem we will/are facing though is how much destruction are we prepared to accept to save x amounts of lives? 

It amazes me that the pain of the reality hasn't been felt or acknowledged yet. Six+ months of lockdown will see many of us posting on this site without a job and no prospect of employment for quite some time. 

When the true social destruction starts to be felt, when the increased rates of suicide, murder, domestic violence, civil unrest and a increasingly likely world war become apparent there will no doubt be some questions asked if it was worth it.. Though we obviously didn't have many options anyway. 

 

We have to look at worst case scenario, the Spanish flu infected 30% of the world's population and of that 30%, 10% died. CV is much worse and much more contagious. It's not hyperbole when experts are quoting figures like 200 million deaths. That's based on what they know about the virus and what has happened with past pandemics. Without a lockdown and without a vaccine, the 200 million deaths is a realistic prospect.

Not wanting to sound melodramatic, but economic disaster, suicide, mental health issues will pale into significance. As a side note, I've not heard much about Africa. It's like the elephant in the room, the media have barely mentioned it. I think when the AIDS epidemic was at it's worst, 34% of Uganda's population had HIV or full blown AIDS. Just imagine what the CV is going to do there. Much more contagious, much more deadly....

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, more said:

FFS they are doing a great job of confusing the public... 

"The country's deputy chief health officer Professor Paul Kelly has stressed people shouldn't be wearing masks out in public. "

Why in the hell would they say this?? 

And then you read this.. 

"On Friday the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that everyone in the US wear masks when out in public, not just medical staff or those who are unwell." 

 

Beware of headlines.  It’s actually quite sensible what he Said:

If we had unlimited numbers of masks I think it would be important to have a conversation with the Australian community who, unlike many countries in Asia where it is very commonly used...this is not a way that in general Australians use masks,” Dr Kelly said.

“Using a mask incorrectly can actually make it more dangerous. So for example, if you are not used to wearing a mask, it can become quite uncomfortable, even claustrophobic. And indeed, it can become quite itchy underneath the mask.

“Touching a surface with the virus, scratching yourself underneath the mask, could in fact increase your risk rather than decrease your risk.

“If we got to that point, then certainly there would be a need for a strong conversation about how to fit a mask properly and how to use it.”

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, zed said:

We have to look at worst case scenario, the Spanish flu infected 30% of the world's population and of that 30%, 10% died. CV is much worse and much more contagious. It's not hyperbole when experts are quoting figures like 200 million deaths. That's based on what they know about the virus and what has happened with past pandemics. Without a lockdown and without a vaccine, the 200 million deaths is a realistic prospect.

Not wanting to sound melodramatic, but economic disaster, suicide, mental health issues will pale into significance. As a side note, I've not heard much about Africa. It's like the elephant in the room, the media have barely mentioned it. I think when the AIDS epidemic was at it's worst, 34% of Uganda's population had HIV or full blown AIDS. Just imagine what the CV is going to do there. Much more contagious, much more deadly....

 I see your point but the Spanish flu killed mostly young healthy people, whereas the wuflu seems to typically kills compromised people?

 I also am beginning to wonder again why we aren't seeing massive death tolls from places like Africa and Asia if this virus is as deadly and rampant as we are led to believe?? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An American in New York is dying every 2.5 minutes.  
 

not sure how trump will open America by next Friday.  

Reported on March 26

 

EC97C6DD-4C6B-4EFA-B186-50FAB8F25CBA.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, more said:

FFS they are doing a great job of confusing the public... 

"The country's deputy chief health officer Professor Paul Kelly has stressed people shouldn't be wearing masks out in public. "

Why in the hell would they say this?? 

And then you read this.. 

"On Friday the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that everyone in the US wear masks when out in public, not just medical staff or those who are unwell." 

 

Remember the panic buying of toilet paper?

How difficult do we think it would be for front-line medical staff to secure masks (not just in Aust, but around the world), if everyone was required to wear a mask in public.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

QLD Health on masks:

Should I wear a face mask?

Only people who have travelled overseas, feel unwell and have access to a face mask need to use one.

A face mask is not necessary if you do not have symptoms.

 

It kind of makes sense, limit the use of necessary items to necessary situations only. 
But the California idea that everyone wears some sort of face mask, but only medical people, sick etc wear N95 style also makes sense. 
Bearing in mind that I don’t recall the last time I saw sanitiser in the shops, if people can’t use sanitiser when they do go out, is a mask a good option/alternative? Assuming they still wash hands before and after the trip?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, more said:

 I see your point but the Spanish flu killed mostly young healthy people, whereas the wuflu seems to typically kills compromised people?

 I also am beginning to wonder again why we aren't seeing massive death tolls from places like Africa and Asia if this virus is as deadly and rampant as we are led to believe?? 

We're seeing some appalling footage of worse (and worsening) case scenarios from Spain, Italy, New York, etc. First hand accounts from medical staff on the front-line.

Sometimes it's very difficult to fathom where your flippancy and cynicism comes from. I know a lot of nuance can be lost in the written word, so I'm really trying to give the benefit of doubt.

I'm sure we haven't seen the worst of what's happening in many countries. I'm equally sure there's many regions including developing countries yet to experience the full impact of the pandemic. eg Africa, India, Indonesia, South and Central America.

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Point being he restricted travel for non-Americans and people started to be quarantined despite only six cases being reported in the U.S. at the time.  And was called xenophobic for doing so

Now the narrative among the Peters of the world is that he did nothing so it's all his fault 

IJ, how manifestly appalling does Trump's decision making, behaviour or language have to be on any one issue before you cease to be an unreserved apologist for him?

Surely there must be point where even you are going to be objectively critical of the man?

(Yes, moderators, this should be in the Trump thread. Covid thread should be apolitical.)

  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Paul Every said:

We're seeing some appalling footage of worse (and worsening) case scenarios from Spain, Italy, New York, etc. First hand accounts from medical staff on the front-line.

Sometimes it's very difficult to fathom where your flippancy and cynicism comes from. I know a lot of nuance can be lost in the written word, so I'm really trying to give the benefit of doubt.

I'm sure we haven't seen the worst of what's happening in many countries. I'm equally sure there's many regions including developing countries yet to experience the full impact of the pandemic. eg Africa, India, Indonesia, South and Central America.

 

I'm as concerned as the next person and am doing everything I am supposed to in regards to safe guarding against the virus. 

That being said I have never been a follower, I always approach things with a open mind. Its not that I'm flippant, but I have seen far to many lies from politicians and the media to just blindly believe them without question. 

So that's not to say I think there is a conspiracy etc, my statement is exactly as it sounds-why isn't there reporting on massive death tolls in the regions that have next to no hospital facilities let alone the ability to contain virus spread?

Is it a case of the deaths are there but the media are to pre occupied with our own back yard, is it that they typically have a younger average age base due to a lower life expectancy and as such the virus isn't killing as many etc, are there people with things to gain (money) taking advantage of the situation talking up the crisis to governments who now have a blank cheque book, or has the virus been blown out of proportion etc

All questions that constantly go through my mind...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, more said:

Side note, wtf don't we just go full lockdown 2weeks and ban all entry to the country. Eliminate the virus on our island and ban outsider's until there is a cure. Then at least we can get back to work and back to normal? 

I'm not sure of what you envisage a full lock down to be like.

Essential services are still going to have to continue. are still a part of society. 

  • Hospitals and medical facilities and still going to have to continue. Doctors, nurses, support staff, cleaners, etc
  • Police, fire, ambos, other, emergency services, etc.
  • Aged care facilities.
  • Waste disposal services.
  • Supply chains will still have to run for essential services.
  • Child care for many of these people while they're at work?

Our society can't totally shut down. These people must continue to work and will continue to be part of society. 

We talked about NZ going hard and early previously in this thread. They were probably the country considered by experts with the best chance of eradication. NZ only had there first death in the past week.

That horse bolted a long time ago for Aust. It does seem ironic that you're questioning both the known perniciousness of the virus and current restrictive measures of the government, yet proposing more prohibitive restrictions which would have been best served the country over a month ago.

What would have been your response to such measures 4 or 6 weeks ago?

I realise your question is hypothetical, but it appears odd nonetheless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, more said:

Fair, but I'm not sure who would want to see their parents at the moment and be potentially responsible for giving them the virus and killing them.. 

It's tough over here but not as tough as it probably should be. We are not allowed visitors and cannot be in a group of more than two and outside, you are only allowed to be with family members in your household.

My Mum is less than 2hrs drive away and I haven't seen her for 7wks.  My sister is there with her and they are living together essentially, so she's being cared for but that means my sister has not seen her husband or kids for weeks either and there is no telling when anything will be lifted.

Compared to Italy and Spain I'd say we are in 'lockdown lite' at the moment but still seems to be far more restrictive that what Oz is allowed (except for border control). Every country feels the restrictions are harsh but I'm not sure you guys are really aware of how harsh it could get.

 Ranting and raving about what the Gov should or shouldn't do is pointless. When you are in lockdown, getting angry about situations that you cannot influence just leads to cabinet fever.

I've got an elderly mother, a young daughter, no job /income and no prospects of getting any soon but my focus is on keeping my family safe and not assuming the rules don't apply to me. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Peter said:

So what’s stage 4?

 

 

I have it on good authority there is also a Stage 6:

 

b5fea5166178a72e442bac7d7ab69d76.jpg

 

Save us Neo

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Paul Every said:

I'm not sure of what you envisage a full lock down to be like.

Essential services are still going to have to continue. are still a part of society. 

  • Hospitals and medical facilities and still going to have to continue. Doctors, nurses, support staff, cleaners, etc
  • Police, fire, ambos, other, emergency services, etc.
  • Aged care facilities.
  • Waste disposal services.
  • Supply chains will still have to run for essential services.
  • Child care for many of these people while they're at work?

Our society can't totally shut down. These people must continue to work and will continue to be part of society. 

We talked about NZ going hard and early previously in this thread. They were probably the country considered by experts with the best chance of eradication. NZ only had there first death in the past week.

That horse bolted a long time ago for Aust. It does seem ironic that you're questioning both the known perniciousness of the virus and current restrictive measures of the government, yet proposing more prohibitive restrictions which would have been best served the country over a month ago.

What would have been your response to such measures 4 or 6 weeks ago?

I realise your question is hypothetical, but it appears odd nonetheless.

It's not that hard to understand and can't see why having an open mind is odd. Like I said we should be doing everything we can to stop the virus, this is on the assumption that everything we are being told is correct. 

That doesn't mean I shouldnt at the same time be questioning and exploring everything I am or am not being told...

As for total lockdown I don't know. I'd imagine there are parts of the world that are effectively in total lock down during winter blizzards etc and seem to manage. I'm sure we could also if it meant saving hundreds of thousands of lives. 

I don't know what the answer is but if there were two options one being 6+months of this crap or alternatively 2-3weeks of being locked up inside I'd take the 2 weeks and be done with it. 

Edited by more

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, more said:

I'm as concerned as the next person and am doing everything I am supposed to in regards to safe guarding against the virus. 

That being said I have never been a follower, I always approach things with a open mind. Its not that I'm flippant, but I have seen far to many lies from politicians and the media to just blindly believe them without question. 

So that's not to say I think there is a conspiracy etc, my statement is exactly as it sounds-why isn't there reporting on massive death tolls in the regions that have next to no hospital facilities let alone the ability to contain virus spread?

Is it a case of the deaths are there but the media are to pre occupied with our own back yard, is it that they typically have a younger average age base due to a lower life expectancy and as such the virus isn't killing as many etc, are there people with things to gain (money) taking advantage of the situation talking up the crisis to governments who now have a blank cheque book, or has the virus been blown out of proportion etc

All questions that constantly go through my mind...

Thanks for the thoughtful reply.

Many countries are slow off the mark with testing, especially developing nations. It's reasonable to assume infection rates are under reported in many countries. With minimal testing, there may be no grasp of how widespread infections are.

I'm also assuming there's many nations with (at present) low death rates that might not have even attributed some Covid deaths to the virus due to lack of testing and rudimentary medical infrastructure. They may even have little idea that some deaths are from Covid (if they occur at home), and no thorough postmortum performed.

I imagine this will change and we'll see some ugly scenes coming from all over the world.

Using SARS (another coronavirus) as an analogue*, which self-resolved in the northern summer, many southern hemisphere nations are probably yet to encounter their Covid "season". Again, expect that to change.

I'm guessing tropical countries may not be as susceptible as cooler/temperate countries, though I may be totally incorrect on that.

India has gone into lockdown with the maxim "25 days of pain to avoid 25 years of pain". Indonesia appears not to responding to initial cases nearly as forcefully.

And yes, most western media are focused on US, Spain, Italy, UK and of course, domestically. Flip through some of the news services from other countries on SBS and every nation appears to be fighting its own battle to some extent.

* SARS provides an interesting comparison. Less than 800 people died from SARS globally, around 8000 were infected. Counter-intuitively, SARS was more lethal than Covid.

People infected with SARS developed severe symptoms early, were hospitalised relatively quickly, had a 10% chance of dying, which if they did, they did so very quickly. It's relative lethality made it a more difficult virus to pass on. Hence, SARS was less transmissible than Covid and more easily contained. It disappeared without a vaccine being developed.

SARS burnt brightly and burnt out quickly. That is far less likely to happen with Covid.

 

 

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, FatPom said:

My Mum is less than 2hrs drive away and I haven't seen her for 7wks.  My sister is there with her and they are living together essentially, so she's being cared for but that means my sister has not seen her husband or kids for weeks either and there is no telling when anything will be lifted.

FP, how is it for Mrs FP on the family front? Must be hard I imagine?

39 minutes ago, FatPom said:

I've got an elderly mother, a young daughter, no job /income and no prospects of getting any soon but my focus is on keeping my family safe and not assuming the rules don't apply to me. 

Great attitude. Stay strong, FP. :thumbsup:

39 minutes ago, FatPom said:

 Ranting and raving about what the Gov should or shouldn't do is pointless. When you are in lockdown, getting angry about situations that you cannot influence just leads to cabinet fever.

That when you become enraged by decisions made by the federal cabinet?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

See this is what I was getting to with keeping an open mind always. We can't blindly just trust what we are being told. China is obviously full of crap, but now even Italy and Spain seem to be fudging the figures. Stat's can be so easily manipulated to paint what even picture you want. 

"The temptation to fudge the numbers of death is also being seen in Italy and Spain. Both are being accused of attempting to use procedural hurdles – such as whether or not an autopsy has been conducted – to reduce their demoralising official death tolls." 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, zed said:

We have to look at worst case scenario, the Spanish flu infected 30% of the world's population and of that 30%, 10% died. CV is much worse and much more contagious. It's not hyperbole when experts are quoting figures like 200 million deaths. That's based on what they know about the virus and what has happened with past pandemics. Without a lockdown and without a vaccine, the 200 million deaths is a realistic prospect.

Not wanting to sound melodramatic, but economic disaster, suicide, mental health issues will pale into significance. As a side note, I've not heard much about Africa. It's like the elephant in the room, the media have barely mentioned it. I think when the AIDS epidemic was at it's worst, 34% of Uganda's population had HIV or full blown AIDS. Just imagine what the CV is going to do there. Much more contagious, much more deadly....

Could you provide some evidence for why it is much worse then the Spanish flu?

I thought the death rates were quite similar (2.5% ish) and this virus seems to mostly target the elderly, which is surely prefered to the Spanish flu which was worst for under 5, 20-40 and over 65.

While they think 30% got it, they don't know, people may not have had very severe symptoms like covid-19. 

I'd be keen to read more on comparisons, but it may be too early and we will never know the full impact of either of these viruses it seems.

 

 

Edited by dazaau

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With regards the comments about Africa. They probably didn't have the people coming in & out as frequently, so the virus has been slower to infect those countries. Now that they are all starting to show a few cases, I would think it will gather momentum unfortunately. Numbers may appear on the low side, but that's probably only because testing will be on the low side. It could have a devastating effect in many African countries, but not as long lasting as some epidemics, because as heartless as may sound, it is better than many of the diseases there which take the young.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Powerhouse "Farmers Markets" in Brisbane today. FFS can't people see the idiocy in this?

Image may contain: one or more people, crowd and outdoor

  • Confused 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How were the markets even allowed to go ahead?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Powerhouse "Farmers Markets" in Brisbane today. FFS can't people see the idiocy in this?

Image may contain: one or more people, crowd and outdoor

This photo actually makes me feel a little bit sad given the zero care.

id love to go riding with 3 of my mates but instead we have been doing zwift meetups. Which as boring as bat shit, but its what We are all doing, in an attempt to do the right thing dan Andrews is asking everybody to do. 
 

then you see this from Queensland. 
 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I saw an ad for another farmers market, and they are pushing it as being “shopping for your essentials” 

thankfully it pissed down in Sydney this morning so stopped any silliness 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Paul Every said:

FP, how is it for Mrs FP on the family front? Must be hard I imagine?

Great attitude. Stay strong, FP. :thumbsup:

That when you become enraged by decisions made by the federal cabinet?

haha, that's what I get for posting before breakfast! 

For Mrs FP, 'luckily' (I don't know how else to put it), her Dad died from a heart attack last year and she was able to get to to the funeral, albeit in the middle of our holiday!   Her Mum died years ago and has no brothers and sisters, so in that sense, we are all together in the UK family wise. We were discussing how hard it would be if her Dad was still alive and it was weird conversation to be honest.

Thanks mate, it's bloody tough at the moment. Financially we are ok, probably could last about two years without income and current mortgage payments but that doesn't help with pension, savings etc. We are in a better situation that a lot but it was a real shock to lose my job, and I wasn't the only one from my work.

I hate DIY but have been getting to grips with some projects and spending time on Zwift. My marathon was meant be Apr 19th but that's been kicked into Oct, I was hoping for sub 3.45 but nowadays I just run here and there with Flipper, she's up to 7km now (55mins) and doing great.  She asked us if we were going to die the other day, how do you explain to a 6yr old not to worry, at least in a way they believe you!

Thanks for asking :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Peter said:

This photo actually makes me feel a little bit sad given the zero care.

id love to go riding with 3 of my mates but instead we have been doing zwift meetups. Which as boring as bat shit, but its what We are all doing, in an attempt to do the right thing dan Andrews is asking everybody to do. 
 

then you see this from Queensland. 
 

I really doubt these will be on next weekend after the publicity they are getting tonight. If they are, there'll be police presence & strict enforcement of rules.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...