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9 hours ago, Dave T said:

Thinking about this, is like trying to contemplate that the universe is infinite.

If we are into a multi-billion dollar debt....who to? 

I remember learning about pre-WW2 economics where workers were taking home their daily pay in wheelbarrows, and paper currency was used to wallpaper the walls because it was cheaper than "wallpaper". But I still don't get the concept of why having more money in circulation means that money is worth less. "Money" is just a construct after all.

I genuinely hope that governments around the world can now see the value of the "social wage" , and the push to privatise everything has gone too far.

I'll try explain why printing money gets you into problems. 

Money isn't a good or a service, it's just paper, it isn't "real". It's what we use to trade.

Assuming the real goods and services don't change in Value or supply (people produce the same number of real goods and people still want these goods) but you increase the amount of money, then there is no other outcome but that the amount of money to buy real things goes up.

As a simple example, if all you could buy was Mars bars, and there are two people each with $2, and there were only 4 Mars bars, they would be priced at $1 each. If you gave them both $2000 dollars the price just goes to $1000 each - oversimplified but thats the idea.

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9 hours ago, more said:

https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

 

Current Foreign Ownership of U.S. Debt

In Dec. 2019, Japan owned $1.15 trillion in U.S. Treasurys, making it the largest foreign holder.5 The second-largest holder is China which owns $1.07 trillion of U.S. debt. Both Japan and China want to keep the value of the dollar higher than the value of their currencies. That helps keep their exports to the United States affordable, which helps their economies grow.

 

Despite China's occasional threats to sell its holdings, both countries are happy to be America's biggest foreign bankers. China replaced the United Kingdom as the second-largest foreign holder on May 31, 2007. That's when it increased its holdings to $699 billion, outpacing the United Kingdom's $640 billion. 

 

The United Kingdom is the third-largest holder with $332.6 billion. It's increased in rank as Brexit continues to weaken its economy. Brazil is next, holding $281.9 billion. It's followed by Ireland with $281.8 billion.

If they all wiped the debt that's fine. Just so long as everyone (read you) is willing to give up their savings. 

Government treasury bonds and bills are owned by superfunds and banks and individuals. Someone has to lose to wipe debts. And who is going to lend anyone money again if we all just decide to "call it even"

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Dazaau, and that’s why it feels the best thing to do here is hold the best cash generating assets if you can find them. Albeit being contrary to what you should be doing. It feels world will print its way out of this one, ie hyperinflation on cards. I hate owning shares at moment but also hate the debacle that follows down the track from all this ‘printing’. 

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36 minutes ago, Bosco said:

Dazaau, and that’s why it feels the best thing to do here is hold the best cash generating assets if you can find them. Albeit being contrary to what you should be doing. It feels world will print its way out of this one, ie hyperinflation on cards. I hate owning shares at moment but also hate the debacle that follows down the track from all this ‘printing’. 

They can probably get away with some printing given the demand for goods falling through the floor? Who knows really!

And as long as those companies survive the downturn they will bounce back hard. That's why gold and other rare commodities usually goes through the roof, it's real and it's "safe". (Though if it gets real bad you can't eat gold! Or even burn it to keep warm 😂

Edited by dazaau

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So what’s stage 4?

 

Quote

Premier Daniel Andrews has established a Crisis Council to manage the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mr Andrews said today he believed a move to stage four restrictions was inevitable, and warned despite a flattening of the curve, there was still a long way to go in the fight against COVID-19.

“I think there will be a stage four,” he said.

 

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3 minutes ago, Cottoneyes said:

no bottleshops, no exercise, only essential retail - no clothes, no hardware etc is my guess

Suicide will pass deaths from the virus if they do that. 

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12 minutes ago, Peter said:

Suicide will pass deaths from the virus if they do that. 

They are already reporting a spike in first time domestic violence calls in NSW

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11 minutes ago, roxii said:

They are already reporting a spike in first time domestic violence calls in NSW

I’m not surprised. 
the women next door in only the last 2 weeks yells constantly at her 2 girls and husband. In the 7 years I’ve lived here, never heard a peep and we have bbq with them get on very well. 
but she lost her job and he is always home. Usually he travels the world for work 2 out of 4 weeks a month. 
she isn’t dealing with the last 2 weeks at all.  
Its times Like this I’m glad we don’t have guns like the USA.  It would be so easy for her to just snap and shoot them all. 
6 months more is going to be very interesting.  

Edited by Peter
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Peter, I think there are about 10 suicides per day in Australia. First infection in Australia was jan-24  - 70 days ago. 

I did see an interesting article from US (I cannot put my hands on now) where actual death rate has dropped substantially due to lock down. Less car accidents, homicides etc etc. 

I am still in the sceptical camp - cure being worse than disease at this point but understand why every government has done what they have. 

Not so fun fact - Did you know Australia has 50% less ICU beds per 100,000 people than Italy? (8.5  in Australia, 12.5 Italy, NZ 5.1 source ABC).

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I agree with the concern re suicide and domestic violence. There must be a hell of a lot of people out there who have or are going to loose everything. To then be forced to stay inside with no outlet, no runs/rides etc with your mates.. Its a recipe for disaster... 

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1 minute ago, more said:

I agree with the concern re suicide and domestic violence. There must be a hell of a lot of people out there who have or are going to loose everything. To then be forced to stay inside with no outlet, no runs/rides etc with your mates.. Its a recipe for disaster... 

Add that to those who might ordinarily go to the pub to drown their sorrows and come home and sleep it off, now are sitting at home drinking without any footy on . 
a recipe for some pretty ugly outcomes 

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2 minutes ago, roxii said:

Add that to those who might ordinarily go to the pub to drown their sorrows and come home and sleep it off, now are sitting at home drinking without any footy on . 
a recipe for some pretty ugly outcomes 

Yep.... And we have had just 28 deaths from this stupid virus, most of whom were elderly. Makes u wonder... 

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Choking has killed 3 times more people in Australia than the wuflu, ban solid food! 

"More than 80 people die each year of choking in Australia. Choking is the second largest cause ofdeath in aged care."

Edited by more
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At the same time - look at the positives.  Hell of alot of people are free of their local pokies venue and just might be able to get their lives back - as long as they don't download the wrong app on their phone

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During the 2017/18 year in the US, 4.8M people contracted the flu with 85,000 dying. Luckily, covid didn't happen during their winter.

FM 

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1 hour ago, more said:

Yep.... And we have had just 28 deaths from this stupid virus, most of whom were elderly. Makes u wonder... 

 

The number of deaths in this country (at this stage) is pretty much irrelevant. What is important is that this virus has the potential to kill many people. It is highly contagious, it kills people, there is no vaccine, people who have it are not building up an immunity to it and can get it multiple times, there are at least 3 strains, meaning 3 separate, distinct vaccine's would have to be developed and it may mutate. Also note, if a vaccine was discovered tomorrow, even if it was fast tracked, we would still be looking at 12 months+ before it became available to Joe Public. Typically a drug takes 13 years to get from the lab to the chemist, which includes 3 years of testing on humans. All in all,  pretty f**king concerning if you ask me. Treating this virus with triviality.. that ship sailed a long, long time ago.

Edited by zed

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21 minutes ago, zed said:

 

. Also note, if a vaccine was discovered tomorrow, even if it was fast tracked, we would still be looking at 12 months+ before it became available to Joe Public. Typically a drug takes 13 years to get from the lab to the chemist, which includes 3 years of testing on humans. All in all,  pretty f**king concerning if you ask me. Treating this virus with triviality.. that ship sailed a long, long time ago.

You mean it’s not like the movies where it is discovered and everyone is all okay within a week or two.  
FFS

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As usual, social media is spreading misinformation created from prejudiced points of view to make all Chinese out to be the bad guys. Take whatever you read with a grain of salt. My sister and her partner are nurses in the ICU of one of London's major hospitals so when she says "this is serious" I trust that information because she is witnessing the deaths and trying to manage the work load. The death rate in the UK is definitely more than what you would normally see in a normal flu season and I can't imagine what it would be without the lockdown measures in place. We've been working from home for 3 weeks now.

I also received this from the Principal of one of Scotland's leading Life Science and Medicine Universities:

It is also heartening that friends and colleagues based in many of our esteemed educational partners in China have been in touch to express their solidarity with us at this challenging time. Several partners have made generous donations of PPE to aid our response to Covid-19, including Chongqing Medical University, Dalian University of Foreign Languages, Guangdong University of Technology, Tianjin Medical University and Wuhan University. We are very grateful for these donations and are making them available to our most vulnerable students and some of the few remaining campus-based staff.

 

Hardly the actions of a secretive dictatorship.

Edited by The Customer

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4 hours ago, zed said:

 

The number of deaths in this country (at this stage) is pretty much irrelevant. What is important is that this virus has the potential to kill many people. It is highly contagious, it kills people, there is no vaccine, people who have it are not building up an immunity to it and can get it multiple times, there are at least 3 strains, meaning 3 separate, distinct vaccine's would have to be developed and it may mutate. 

So if what you are saying is true then what's the point off lockdown-if people can keep repeatedly catching it there will never be a 'flattening' of the curve.. Unless we are prepared to live in these lock down conditions for a long long time. 

I can tell you right night the world economy and society will totally collapse if that's the answer and the restant deaths will far outweigh the death toll from the wuflu... 

Edited by more

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6 minutes ago, more said:

So if what you are saying is true then what's the point off lockdown-if people can keep repeatedly catching it there will never be a 'flattening' of the curve.. Unless we are prepared to live in these lock down conditions for a long long time. 

I can tell you right night the world economy and society will totally collapse if that's the answer and the restant deaths will far outweigh the death toll from the wuflu... 

I'm moving more to this, we know that in 2009 in the USA there were:

89 million cases

402,000 Hospital admissions

18,000 deaths

Globally 575,000 deaths

No one noticed, it barely made the news and the health system did what it had to do. Now we have a large reduction in US deaths overall from other causes, but a spike in deaths of people over 80. Ponder that for a second.

We are crashing the world economy for people who are literally by actuarial tables going to die anyway in the next three years. Yes CV is more deadly than the Flu and on evidence more contagious and it is brutal on the frail and elderly.

Last year in the USA 34 million people got flu, not counting false positives as lots of people typically younger just battle through and 34,000 people died in the flu season.The season is considered to be primarily December to February though it can last to May.

Since January which is first person in USA to be known to have it 6500 people have died, the predict peak in 2 weeks time. Okay that's a lot of numbers and I'll be told its not flu, I know its not, but look at numbers we have accepted without even a blink of any eye and changed nothing for.

Could we have done this differently, with social distance and actual precautions like washing hands etc.

This is long I know, but right now we are 4 months into the CV season and they are not significant compared to the other data points above, other than it kills people who were due to die anyway.

Caveat I have a relative in the ICU with this thing

 

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3 minutes ago, The Customer said:

A 13 year old boy, normally healthy, died yesterday in the UK of Covid19. It's not just the elderly.

yes that is true it is not an if or logic gate, young people die:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

do we make public policy on the basis of 1 person?

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Normally I'd be sceptical but in this case, the people I know in the NHS who are seeing what's going on are saying the lockdown is justified so who am I to speculate. Time will tell.

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45 minutes ago, The Customer said:

Normally I'd be sceptical but in this case, the people I know in the NHS who are seeing what's going on are saying the lockdown is justified so who am I to speculate. Time will tell.

Yes and I agree, we need the lockdowns now, because:

We as western nations chose wealth over health. When this thing hit we did not have the capacity to dal with it and this he fear: the potential to over whelm our ability to treat and the risk to the health and front line workers including people in retail.

Had we looked at the data coming out of china, and prepared, by getting more PPE, sorting out social distance in February this could have been very different..

Leaders are doing what they have to now because they didn't when they could and should, so its a blunt instrument. Maryland is on week 3 of basic lock down no schools with 4 more to come. If the measures have had effect we should be seeing them soon which is why they predict peak in a week and a half.

Even though we have no baseline as no country can really test everyone, we can test the effects of the measures on the number of generally symptomatic cases and assume that because asymptomatic cases are also socially distant the risk of new infection is acceptable.

The NHS has a history of accepting end of life and "letting" older patients die, Liverpool Care Pathway. 

     

"There are around 450,000 deaths in Britain each year of people who are in hospital or under NHS care. Around 29 per cent – 130,000 – are of patients who were on the LCP.

Professor Pullicino claimed that far too often elderly patients who could live longer are placed on the LCP and it had now become an ‘assisted death pathway rather than a care pathway’.

He cited ‘pressure on beds and difficulty with nursing confused or difficult-to-manage elderly patients’ as factor"

This is it's own body of research, but the NHS which has a history of its your time now wants to go in the polar opposite.

We have to control the spread now because these same NHS and other officials like the WHO did not do anything in Jan or Feb along with the politicians they were supposed to advise.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm

 

Edited by BarryBevan
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Time to jump in again... 

Yes there have been limited deaths but that is because of the rules we have put in place. We are all under the most extreme lock down that we have ever seen in peace time and yet thousands of people are still going to die. Imagine if we hadn't?

I have three colleagues in hospital (all in their 30s, normally fit and well), they all look like they are going to be OK but this is not "flu" it is a killer at a scale that we have never seen before (except maybe during Bubonic plague).

I am acutely aware of the economic cost, I am an economist by degree and more recently have a business that should have turned over $1m this year now looking like it's going bust with significant personal liabilities. I am also closer to the coalface than many and I am completely on the side of the restrictions. They should be harder, faster. Yes it hurts. Yes that will damage the economy but if we hadn't done it in the UK we would have been looking at between 500,000 and 1,000,000 dead. 

The "it only kills old people" is not true and is  only a bit true if we keep proper healthcare going for everybody else. You overwhelm your hospitals and that person who may only have "moderate" symptoms will die. 

Healthcare and mortuary systems do not have a bunch of spare capacity, it would be daft to have the staff and beds for an extra 100% of ITU patients available at all times so we have to work with what we have and that requires flattening the curve.

All the chatter about "the cure being worse than the disease" was here four weeks ago. Everybody has now shut up because most people know somebody through 2 degrees who is very seriously ill. 

I hope Australia manages to avoid the worst of it because the planning we are doing now is not pretty.

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9 minutes ago, monkie said:

Time to jump in again... 

Yes there have been limited deaths but that is because of the rules we have put in place. We are all under the most extreme lock down that we have ever seen in peace time and yet thousands of people are still going to die. Imagine if we hadn't?

I have three colleagues in hospital (all in their 30s, normally fit and well), they all look like they are going to be OK but this is not "flu" it is a killer at a scale that we have never seen before (except maybe during Bubonic plague).

I am acutely aware of the economic cost, I am an economist by degree and more recently have a business that should have turned over $1m this year now looking like it's going bust with significant personal liabilities. I am also closer to the coalface than many and I am completely on the side of the restrictions. They should be harder, faster. Yes it hurts. Yes that will damage the economy but if we hadn't done it in the UK we would have been looking at between 500,000 and 1,000,000 dead. 

The "it only kills old people" is not true and is  only a bit true if we keep proper healthcare going for everybody else. You overwhelm your hospitals and that person who may only have "moderate" symptoms will die. 

Healthcare and mortuary systems do not have a bunch of spare capacity, it would be daft to have the staff and beds for an extra 100% of ITU patients available at all times so we have to work with what we have and that requires flattening the curve.

All the chatter about "the cure being worse than the disease" was here four weeks ago. Everybody has now shut up because most people know somebody through 2 degrees who is very seriously ill. 

I hope Australia manages to avoid the worst of it because the planning we are doing now is not pretty.

i agree now what if we did it when we should have

edit mil in icu

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37 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

i agree now what if we did it when we should have

edit mil in icu

No evidence further stricter lockdown methods work any better than what we are currently doing here in Australia. We have the mix right and haven’t totally decimated our economy in the process   It will be a tough road back but if the reduction in cases continue and the recovery continues it is looking promising for us   Remember  all we are trying to do is buy some time until a vaccine is near   

The social distancing rules are by far the best way to flatten the curve. It is also working here so far.  Hence why the authorities are enforcing this so hard.  

Edited by Prince

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6 minutes ago, Prince said:

No evidence a lockdown works. It hasn’t worked for Italy 

The social distancing rules are by far the best way to flatten the curve.  Hence why the authorities are enforcing this so hard. 

usa not flat

 

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9 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

usa not flat

 

USA were very late to the party.  I think they had infections near 15000 before they started to take it seriously.  In addition, you had the orange man saying they will all be back to work in a week or two which didn’t help at all. 

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4 minutes ago, Prince said:

USA were very late to the party.  I think they had infections near 15000 before they started to take it seriously.  In addition, you had the orange man saying they will all be back to work in a week or two which didn’t help at all. 

so was oz you are lucky to be island far away lucky

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13 hours ago, FatPom said:

No tax relief on road tax here but all MOTs post March 31 have been extended by 6mths.

Insurance renewal came for the Yaris the other day - $680, up from $654 last year.

Rang Youi, told them we need to renegotiate because the value of the car had gone down, absolutely no reason for the premium to go up.  Thought I'd be pushing my luck if I suggested $600.  Straight up she offered $523, saying something about tough times for everyone.

Happy dayz....though it just goes to show how much fat there is in insurance premiums.

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9 hours ago, zed said:

... people who have it are not building up an immunity to it and can get it multiple times, there are at least 3 strains...

Where did you get this? Last time I read something similar the article said it was hearsay and not confirmed. Has this changed?

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1 hour ago, BarryBevan said:

so was oz you are lucky to be island far away lucky

We definitely are.  I don’t have any evidence but I assume both the uk and USA in particular New York have such high numbers partly due to being such busy international hubs for travel. 

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3 minutes ago, Prince said:

We definitely are.  I don’t have any evidence but I assume both the uk and USA in particular New York have such high numbers partly due to being such busy international hubs for travel. 

yes that is the case and they didn't social distance early enough, in a grim stat even NY is getting 9k cases a day so at least not growing per day, but the number of cases is subject to the testing problem.

The meter has deaths almost the same as yesterday, sorry I realized how grim it is to write about some one else's death so casually.

The hope is the social distance near lock downs in many states starts to have some effect, models tell us about a week and a half

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

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17 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

yes that is the case and they didn't social distance early enough, in a grim stat even NY is getting 9k cases a day so at least not growing per day, but the number of cases is subject to the testing problem.

The meter has deaths almost the same as yesterday, sorry I realized how grim it is to write about some one else's death so casually.

The hope is the social distance near lock downs in many states starts to have some effect, models tell us about a week and a half

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

One of the things I don’t quite understand is why the older age groups have such a poor immune system.  We must be able to do something about that in the future.  

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The World Health Organisation says individuals in their 30s, 40s and 50s are being admitted to intensive care with COVID-19 and are dying.

More younger people are falling severely ill with coronavirus, the World Health Organisation says, as the number of deaths passes 50,000 globally.

The international health body says individuals in their 30s, 40s and 50s are being admitted to intensive care with the disease and dying, despite having no underlying health issues.

Executive director of WHO's emergencies program Mike Ryan said one in six COVID-19 deaths in Korea were people under the age of 60.

And over the past six weeks in Italy, at least 10 to 15 percent of people in intensive care units with the disease were under 50, he told a press conference in Geneva on Friday (local time).

"It's not that anything has changed," Dr Ryan said

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-more-young-people-severely-ill/67f423aa-2cfb-4974-9bc6-093f3bc88f45

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Generous to a fault amid the COVID-19 crisis, John Coates has told the AOC that he will slash his consulting fee by 20%, which takes it down to a rock bottom $475,600 per annum.

 

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1 hour ago, SomeTri said:

Where did you get this? Last time I read something similar the article said it was hearsay and not confirmed. Has this changed?

The virus mutates about twice a month, influenza is 8-10 times per month.  There is no real evidence of people re-catching it.  There are a couple of possible cases but pretty much all of the experts believe it is simply a case of the second test which cleared them having produced a false negative while their third test correctly assessed them as still having it.

Forit to be a real threat of recurrent infection it would need to be much more than a rare event.  Logically, with millions of cases worldwide and many of them recovered, we would know very clearly if this were the case.  Nobody is going to categorically rule it out because that's not what you do scientifically but common sense (and Nobel prize winning epidemiologists) tells you we're not having that situation.

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10 minutes ago, more said:

I'd be interested to see how many were a pack a day smokers.. 

Yep my thoughts too

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16 minutes ago, more said:

I'd be interested to see how many were a pack a day smokers.. 

Agree.  Or  asthmatics 

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3 hours ago, Prince said:

USA were very late to the party.  I think they had infections near 15000 before they started to take it seriously.

Trump stopped flights from China at the end of January.  He was called xenophobic... 

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2 hours ago, SomeTri said:

Where did you get this? Last time I read something similar the article said it was hearsay and not confirmed. Has this changed?

I will try and dig up the article. It came from a credible source, but it seems facts about the virus change almost daily. A patient in the UK was found to have 3 different strains of the virus.

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36 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Trump stopped flights from China at the end of January.  He was called xenophobic... 

No he didn't. He imposed some restrictions on who could enter. In the first few weeks of March there were still nearly 100 flights a day landing in the US from China.

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3 minutes ago, zed said:

I will try and dig up the article. It came from a credible source, but it seems facts about the virus change almost daily. A patient in the UK was found to have 3 different strains of the virus.

I read something on the "strains" of this virus. Likewise, can't recall the exact article, but it said that they were 95% similar, and while it could complicate things a little, it was normal for vaccines to treat multiple strains and mutations like this.

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8 hours ago, more said:

So if what you are saying is true then what's the point off lockdown-if people can keep repeatedly catching it there will never be a 'flattening' of the curve.. Unless we are prepared to live in these lock down conditions for a long long time. 

I can tell you right night the world economy and society will totally collapse if that's the answer and the restant deaths will far outweigh the death toll from the wuflu... 

Yeah as Prince said "   all we are trying to do is buy some time until a vaccine is near ". To truly protect us from the virus, we need to be in lockdown till a vaccine is developed and realistically that is a long way off. I don't think a lockdown of 8 weeks is going to necessarily reduce the number of deaths, but it would spread them out over a longer period allowing our health services to cope. I think there is this misconception that an 8 week lockdown is going to rid the country of the virus. 6 months of restrictions is realistic. And yes the world economy is going to be wrecked. I can't see a way round it. 

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