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8 minutes ago, The Customer said:

Can't they just print some more money?

That’s definitely not a silly comment. Some countries are actually doing that or considering it.  The US is doing it and the UK is contemplating it.  I am not sure if the rationale behind this as it’s out of my limited understanding 
Having more money in circulation, however reduces the value of currency and you then get inflation. So there could be nothing worse than having a large workforce unemployed with little money and then not being able to afford the basics.  

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57 minutes ago, Prince said:

 

This is where it is a moving target.  This model assumes the number of infections doubles every 4 days in mid March.

 

According to the data that is presented here (I am going to assume it is somewhat accurate, however there are a lot of variables) new infections have effectively flat lined since 22nd March

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

This shows why there is so much change in what we can and can't do on an almost daily basis.

 

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1 hour ago, Prince said:

Each decision has been explained and is also based on agreement between the federal government and the state premiers.  

I'm supporting the measures they have brought in (apart from FREE childcare that is not means tested), but that statement is a bit pie in the sky. All you have to do is look at the mismatch of rules between the states, some borders locking down & not others, and of course the schools debacle, where for 2 weeks no-one knew what their school was going to do because the Federal Gov was saying one thing & the State Govs were saying another.

After a rocky start where it appeared they didn't take it seriously enough and took too long to act, I think the Gov is handling this as good as can be expected with the changing situations around the world.

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36 minutes ago, Prince said:

That’s definitely not a silly comment. Some countries are actually doing that or considering it.  The US is doing it and the UK is contemplating it.  I am not sure if the rationale behind this as it’s out of my limited understanding 
Having more money in circulation, however reduces the value of currency and you then get inflation. So there could be nothing worse than having a large workforce unemployed with little money and then not being able to afford the basics.  

Monetary policy changes were probably going to happen due to the interest rates being so low anyway and having bugger all else to go, just the timing is crap due to the unemployment now, which hopefully is only going to be very short term

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A quick analysis by Magellan on the economic actions taken by various governments around the world and likely outcomes

The policy responses cover those by central banks and governments. Central banks appear to be taking two courses. The first is to reduce interest rates as far as practicable; that is, making money effectively free. The other is to ensure the financial system has sufficient liquidity to ensure it doesn’t freeze. We are seeing massive injections of liquidity by central banks via a scaling up of quantitative easing, providing liquidity-support facilities to businesses, liquidity support to other central banks (currency swaps) and liquidity to critical areas of the economy such as the repo markets and money-market funds.

We have been impressed with the actions taken by the major central banks to date; they are acting nimbly, and with scale and speed. They appear to be winning the fight to head off a liquidity crisis, and will tailor responses as issues emerge. At the same time, some difficult issues haven’t yet been addressed that are likely to put further strains on the financial system. One unresolved issue is the support to be given to sub- investment-grade companies that have borrowed in the high-yield and leverage-loan markets. Another area to be resolved is what happens when many companies have their credit ratings downgraded from investment grade to sub-investment grade. Solving these issues is difficult and might require a co-ordinated response from governments and central banks.

With fiscal policy, we are seeing governments implement four possible packages of fiscal responses. One is to compensate all businesses for 100% of their lost revenue. This would keep balance sheets intact and enable businesses to pay all their employees and key suppliers; for example, landlords, lenders and so on. Businesses could furlough workers and restart when the economy reopens. In this instance, there would be a limited rise in unemployment, despite a hit to GDP, and activity would resume when the economy reopens. The output gap would be transferred to governments and to central-bank balance sheets via quantitative easing. This would be a V-shaped economic recovery. Singapore and Denmark come closest to adopting this strategy.

The second strategy is to compensate businesses for some of their revenue loss and allow them to meet permitted expenses such as wages, interest on loans, rent and utilities. Employees would be furloughed. The US has a program to lend up to US$10 million to companies employing fewer than 500 people. Under this strategy, a large part of the output gap would be transferred to governments and central-bank balance sheets and the remainder would be shared by society. This would save many businesses and enable them to restart. This combined with an effective mitigation strategy would be the best chance of a U-shaped economic recovery. Germany is following this strategy.

The third strategy is to compensate workers for 70% to 100% of lost wages (typically capped at the median wage). This strategy preserves personal balance sheets, but not businesses that have to manage fixed costs. The issue here is that, outside of wages, the remainder of the output gap would fall on businesses, landlords, utilities and banks. This is also likely to hit property prices. Even if many businesses survive, they would emerge with additional debt or balance sheets that were damaged. This would impede their ability to invest and employ as many people as before. They would cut costs to survive even when the economy restarted. This strategy would head off the most dire of economic outcomes but it is unlikely to prevent a deep and prolonged recession and a significant jump in unemployment. Many western governments are pursuing this strategy. These governments might well provide additional fiscal support to preserve businesses’ balance sheets that could be expected to support a stronger economic recovery.

The last strategy is zero compensation. A country loses 17% to 50% of annual output (depending on the duration of the blow to the economy). Many businesses would not survive, particularly small businesses. The property market would crash. Banks would face severe loses. This is the depression scenario. Fortunately, almost no developed country is following this strategy. We fear many emerging markets will not have effective mitigation strategies and be unable to fill a meaningful part of the output gap. We are particularly concerned about Africa, Latin America, India and emerging countries in Southeast Asia.

Conclusion
The situation remains fluid. It is difficult to predict how the next two to 12 months will play out.
We think there is a range of outcomes for the economic recovery, from a V-shaped recovery (a fleeting recession) to a U-shaped recovery (a mild recession), a prolonged and deep recession and, at the pessimistic end, a depression. We believe that for many major economies a V-shaped recovery and a depression appear the least likely scenarios. Outside of a few countries, a recession (a U-shaped recovery) to a deep and prolonged recession appear the most likely outcomes at this point in time. The good news is that governments and central banks are calibrating their responses to attempt to mitigate the economic fallout.

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10 hours ago, dazaau said:

Interesting, thanks. I guess they hope that the ones staying home are replaced with new ones. Bit of a massive win if you both still have a job and are still using childcare. 

Not if your job is in Family daycare.  The devil is in the detail but from what we understand most Family Daycare providers will lose 40%-70% of their income overnight.  

AJ

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If every country is in debt, who to? 

And if its all just paper debt, cant there be an agreement to wipe some of it across the board??

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1 minute ago, -- AJ -- said:

Not if your job is in Family daycare.  The devil is in the detail but from what we understand most Family Daycare providers will lose 40%-70% of their income overnight.  

AJ

Preschools also not included in that.......yet! 

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8 minutes ago, roxii said:

If every country is in debt, who to? 

And if its all just paper debt, cant there be an agreement to wipe some of it across the board??

I have always wondered about this!

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19 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

I'm supporting the measures they have brought in (apart from FREE childcare that is not means tested), but that statement is a bit pie in the sky. All you have to do is look at the mismatch of rules between the states, some borders locking down & not others, and of course the schools debacle, where for 2 weeks no-one knew what their school was going to do because the Federal Gov was saying one thing & the State Govs were saying another.

After a rocky start where it appeared they didn't take it seriously enough and took too long to act, I think the Gov is handling this as good as can be expected with the changing situations around the world.

The money goes direct to child care centres.will not go to  parents.  This is to keep from a total collapse of the industry and ensure there is one on the other side.  

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7 minutes ago, roxii said:

Preschools also not included in that.......yet! 

To me it seems that the whole childcare thing was done as a knee jerk reaction.  From our understanding (and we're still waiting for official confirmation from our head office), the child numbers that the payments are based on are as at early March (i.e. before parents starting pulling their kids out) and won't change. 

Problem is that while the major centres lost numbers,  the family daycare system gained numbers.  So if the FDC had 3 kids in early March and their maximum of 7 next week (due to school holidays) you would still only get paid for 3 kids. 

Its an essential job to keep parents working but it means these providers are getting paid less than 15year old at Maccas (and thats before you deduct expenses)

Just doesn't make sense.  

AJ

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4 minutes ago, Cat Lady said:

The money goes direct to child care centres.will not go to  parents.  This is to keep from a total collapse of the industry and ensure there is one on the other side.  

The Gov is paying them separately as a % of what their attendance was before this started. It doesn't matter who sends their kids there now.

Goodstart (you know, the one that left a kid in the bus) is complaining because they don't fit under the $1B turnover and as such may not get the Jobkeeper supplement.

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1 hour ago, Prince said:

Blind Freddy can figure out why the government has made decisions so far regarding the restrictions imposed and they already have been extremely open and transparent. Have you not seen the addresses Scomo has been doing as well as the daily press conferences by each Premier?

Scomo takes so long to actually say anything I stopped listening to him and instead wait for the much more informative precis provided by some members of the media. I'll also read materials as usually you can cut through the waffle more efficiently.

There is no downside to releasing the information, so why hide it?

 

1 hour ago, Prince said:

As for scrutiny and accountability.  I thought we already have a parliament for that.

So did I, except Parliament has been closed down for most of the rest of the year. So much for parliamentary accountability.

 

1 hour ago, Prince said:

As for the ruby princess.  The nsw government is already launching its own enquire regarding this to see where they dropped the ball, however it now appears the cruise itself was guilty of providing false information.

People lie all the time when entering the country. We don't just wave them through while there is a global pandemic going on. We do sensible things like conduct rudimentary health checks, temperature screening. To lay all the blame on the cruise would be a complete cop out and dereliction of duty.

I agree if they lied that reprehensible however at the same time, we now have human beings in several ships in our waters who need our help and as a nation we are being complete arseholes about it. Yeah yeah foreign flags of convenience and all that. We're happy to see them spend all the cash in our ports during the good times but once in trouble and needing health help, nah screw you and bugger off.

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24 minutes ago, roxii said:

If every country is in debt, who to? 

And if its all just paper debt, cant there be an agreement to wipe some of it across the board??

https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

 

Current Foreign Ownership of U.S. Debt

In Dec. 2019, Japan owned $1.15 trillion in U.S. Treasurys, making it the largest foreign holder.5 The second-largest holder is China which owns $1.07 trillion of U.S. debt. Both Japan and China want to keep the value of the dollar higher than the value of their currencies. That helps keep their exports to the United States affordable, which helps their economies grow.

 

Despite China's occasional threats to sell its holdings, both countries are happy to be America's biggest foreign bankers. China replaced the United Kingdom as the second-largest foreign holder on May 31, 2007. That's when it increased its holdings to $699 billion, outpacing the United Kingdom's $640 billion. 

 

The United Kingdom is the third-largest holder with $332.6 billion. It's increased in rank as Brexit continues to weaken its economy. Brazil is next, holding $281.9 billion. It's followed by Ireland with $281.8 billion.

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They had to be registered with the child care centre as at 2 March or if they left in two weeks leading into it are eligible to reapply.  Child care centre will receive 50% of their previous revenue stream.  They will not take any new enrolments.  All it is doing, aside from ensuring vital workers have somewhere for that children to go, is to ensure there is a viable sector on the other side.

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1 minute ago, Cat Lady said:

All it is doing, aside from ensuring vital workers have somewhere for that children to go, is to ensure there is a viable sector on the other side.

But why is it not means tested like it normally is?

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1 minute ago, more said:

https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

 

Current Foreign Ownership of U.S. Debt

In Dec. 2019, Japan owned $1.15 trillion in U.S. Treasurys, making it the largest foreign holder.5 The second-largest holder is China which owns $1.07 trillion of U.S. debt. Both Japan and China want to keep the value of the dollar higher than the value of their currencies. That helps keep their exports to the United States affordable, which helps their economies grow.

 

Despite China's occasional threats to sell its holdings, both countries are happy to be America's biggest foreign bankers. China replaced the United Kingdom as the second-largest foreign holder on May 31, 2007. That's when it increased its holdings to $699 billion, outpacing the United Kingdom's $640 billion. 

 

The United Kingdom is the third-largest holder with $332.6 billion. It's increased in rank as Brexit continues to weaken its economy. Brazil is next, holding $281.9 billion. It's followed by Ireland with $281.8 billion.

And the majority of us debt is held by us social security

https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

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9 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

But why is it not means tested like it normally is?

Probably because if it was it wouldn’t fill the places needed    Child care centres were on the brink of collapse as some only had 30% filled. 
Drastic times means drastic measures unfortunately. 

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6 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

But why is it not means tested like it normally is?

Simplicity maybe ? Love to be the person trying to means test anyone these days.  I know of several high income people who have paid full fees for child care now on 10%_20% of previous income but still having to go to work.  Means test is based on income and assets.   At any rate it will be disadvantaged children and children of essential workers children who will get priority.  

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29 minutes ago, roxii said:

If every country is in debt, who to? 

And if its all just paper debt, cant there be an agreement to wipe some of it across the board??

Thinking about this, is like trying to contemplate that the universe is infinite.

If we are into a multi-billion dollar debt....who to? 

I remember learning about pre-WW2 economics where workers were taking home their daily pay in wheelbarrows, and paper currency was used to wallpaper the walls because it was cheaper than "wallpaper". But I still don't get the concept of why having more money in circulation means that money is worth less. "Money" is just a construct after all.

I genuinely hope that governments around the world can now see the value of the "social wage" , and the push to privatise everything has gone too far.

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16 minutes ago, Alex Simmons said:

 

Scomo takes so long to actually say anything I stopped listening to him and instead wait for the much more informative precis provided by some members of the media. I'll also read materials as usually you can cut through the waffle more efficiently.

There is no downside to releasing the information, so why hide it?

 

So did I, except Parliament has been closed down for most of the rest of the year. So much for parliamentary accountability.

 

People lie all the time when entering the country. We don't just wave them through while there is a global pandemic going on. We do sensible things like conduct rudimentary health checks, temperature screening. To lay all the blame on the cruise would be a complete cop out and dereliction of duty.

I agree if they lied that reprehensible however at the same time, we now have human beings in several ships in our waters who need our help and as a nation we are being complete arseholes about it. Yeah yeah foreign flags of convenience and all that. We're happy to see them spend all the cash in our ports during the good times but once in trouble and needing health help, nah screw you and bugger off.

I think you have a bias towards Scomo  just guessing though 

Parliament Is recalled to pass any bill. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Dave T said:

.

I genuinely hope that governments around the world can now see the value of the "social wage" , and the push to privatise everything has gone too far.

Wtf.  Are you Russian ? 

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6 minutes ago, Cat Lady said:

  At any rate it will be disadvantaged children and children of essential workers children who will get priority.  

I'd like to see it limited to a needs basis, rather than a convenience basis. We are social distancing for a reason. If you're now working from home, keep your kids at home too. Yes, it may be inconvenient, they interrupt alot, whatever, but we're all inconvenienced in so many ways right now. 

The centres should still be receiving the equivalent of whatever rebate or whatever it is from the government whether they have the kids or not, and the centres should only be taking kids whose parents have no other option but to attend an actual workplace. 

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13 minutes ago, Prince said:

Wtf.  Are you Russian ? 

I know it will be hard to get your head around, but both sides of politics talk about a social or living wage being a requirement due to automation.  Do some independent reading on it, and you will see there is ample thought this will be introduced in the later stages of this decade, or early 2030s at the latest.

The way of work is changing rapidly, the virus is just bringing the debate along much quicker.  Jobs for life is on life support and about to have the priest read the final rites

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9 minutes ago, Katz said:

I'd like to see it limited to a needs basis, rather than a convenience basis. We are social distancing for a reason. If you're now working from home, keep your kids at home too. Yes, it may be inconvenient, they interrupt alot, whatever, but we're all inconvenienced in so many ways right now. 

The centres should still be receiving the equivalent of whatever rebate or whatever it is from the government whether they have the kids or not, and the centres should only be taking kids whose parents have no other option but to attend an actual workplace. 

More if this analysis is to be believed

https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/free-childcare-for-working-families.html

 

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5 minutes ago, Cottoneyes said:

Now it's getting personal, we have to wait another 6 months for the new Top Gun movie 😡

I hope it's got a beach volleyball scene......

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19 minutes ago, Cottoneyes said:

Now it's getting personal, we have to wait another 6 months for the new Top Gun movie 😡

Not to mention the new Wonder Woman movie double 😡 

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6 minutes ago, Prince said:

Probably because if it was it wouldn’t fill the places needed    Child care centres were on the brink of collapse as some only had 30% filled. 
Drastic times means drastic measures unfortunately. 

Don't be surprised if Child Care centres still close. 

Legal requirements may mean that they're required to employ more staff than the subsidy can support.  

AJ

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Heres a serious thought

Seeing that we're being told not to drive anywhere unless absolutely necessary, How about some rego relief on our cars and caravans?

The way things are going, I could pay for 6 months rego and not actually drive the car anywhere in that time.

AJ

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1 hour ago, Cottoneyes said:

I know it will be hard to get your head around, but both sides of politics talk about a social or living wage being a requirement due to automation.  Do some independent reading on it, and you will see there is ample thought this will be introduced in the later stages of this decade, or early 2030s at the latest.

The way of work is changing rapidly, the virus is just bringing the debate along much quicker.  Jobs for life is on life support and about to have the priest read the final rites

Hell no.  Will never ever gain any breath except by the greens.  
I prefer people are rewarded in a free country according to their level of skills, education, ingenuity etc.  The thought of it is against everything I believe in and I am vomiting in my mouth as I even think about it  

anyway that needs some future different thread discussion. 

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3 minutes ago, Prince said:

Hell no.  Will never ever gain any breath except by the greens.  
I prefer people are rewarded in a free country according to their level of skills, education, ingenuity etc.  The thought of it is against everything I believe in and I am vomiting in my mouth as I even think about it  

anyway that needs some future different thread discussion. 

Imagine no possessions though Prince

It's easy if you try

You hooooo hoooo...

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Here is an idea, cancel th public holiday for  Good Friday and Easter Monday plus Anzac Day as we can’t go th fark anywhere

 

make them the first 3 days when we go back to normal.

Big boost for regions etc

 

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9 minutes ago, chris said:

Here is an idea, cancel th public holiday for  Good Friday and Easter Monday plus Anzac Day as we can’t go th fark anywhere

 

make them the first 3 days when we go back to normal.

Big boost for regions etc

 

There are 2 lots of people:

Those with jobs are not using much leave, so they will be itching to get away when we can at the first opportunity - PHs are not going to affect that.  

Those without jobs are going to want to get back to work, and not necessarily have the cash to be going away

Personally, I'm looking forward to having 2 * 4 day weeks coming up to break things up a bit

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38 minutes ago, Cottoneyes said:

Personally, I'm looking forward to having 2 * 4 day weeks coming up to break things up a bit

Me too.  Totally under the pump for the last 3 weeks

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Interesting editorial piece in the AFR from John Roskam re a Police State.  Couple of exerts...

 

'In Victoria, the most extreme house arrest laws in the country were enacted without parliamentary authority and without any form of public or democratic scrutiny. They were simply made under an enabling act that allows the government do anything it "considers is reasonably necessary to protect public health". Using this power, Victoria has enacted house arrest laws that are arbitrary, unpredictable, and that are changed, literally, hour by hour at the whim of politicians and bureaucrats.

On Wednesday morning the Victorian Premier declared that it was against the law for anyone to leave their home for any non-essential purpose, including couples who lived apart visiting each other. Just before 5pm that day, following a community backlash, the government announced couples would be exempt from the law."

and

"Jonathan Sumption, a former judge on the UK Supreme Court, gave an interview to the BBC on Monday in which he warned of the consequences of untrammelled power in the hands of politicians and the police. Everything he said applies to Australia. Of police operating in the UK in the same way as they are in Victoria and New South Wales, Sumption said: "That is what a police state is like. It's a state in which the government can issue orders or express preferences with no legal authority and the police will enforce ministers’ wishes."

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1 hour ago, truck said:

Interesting editorial piece in the AFR from John Roskam re a Police State.  Couple of exerts...

 

'In Victoria, the most extreme house arrest laws in the country were enacted without parliamentary authority and without any form of public or democratic scrutiny. They were simply made under an enabling act that allows the government do anything it "considers is reasonably necessary to protect public health". Using this power, Victoria has enacted house arrest laws that are arbitrary, unpredictable, and that are changed, literally, hour by hour at the whim of politicians and bureaucrats.

On Wednesday morning the Victorian Premier declared that it was against the law for anyone to leave their home for any non-essential purpose, including couples who lived apart visiting each other. Just before 5pm that day, following a community backlash, the government announced couples would be exempt from the law."

and

"Jonathan Sumption, a former judge on the UK Supreme Court, gave an interview to the BBC on Monday in which he warned of the consequences of untrammelled power in the hands of politicians and the police. Everything he said applies to Australia. Of police operating in the UK in the same way as they are in Victoria and New South Wales, Sumption said: "That is what a police state is like. It's a state in which the government can issue orders or express preferences with no legal authority and the police will enforce ministers’ wishes."

yep, and while the majority are taking  pay cuts the politicians are proceeding with their 7% pay increase, because "they are working really hard at the moment" Crikey!

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Is it logical for Australia to have a ban on international travel until we get a vaccine?

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4 hours ago, Prince said:

Hell no.  Will never ever gain any breath except by the greens.  
I prefer people are rewarded in a free country according to their level of skills, education, ingenuity etc.  The thought of it is against everything I believe in and I am vomiting in my mouth as I even think about it  

anyway that needs some future different thread discussion. 

You don't need predatory capitalism to achieve this tho Prince - hybrid systems work fine and can achieve all goals.   You can have a living wage,  a socialist-based health system, education system, & housing system, and a meritocracy that rewards hard work & effort.

Our current system does neither of those things - its pretty much a closed shop that makes it difficult for those not born into privilege to break in.  Would love to see us move to a true meritocracy, but there's too many wealthy Mum's & Dad's out there who realise that their little Johnny's & Janet's might have to work as hard as everyone else to succeed... 😉

Anyway, as you said, perhaps this should be fodder for another thread... 🙂

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3 hours ago, Peter said:

Me too.  Totally under the pump for the last 3 weeks

Male Penis Vacuum Pump Manual Penis Enlarger Enhancer Bigger ...

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7 hours ago, -- AJ -- said:

Heres a serious thought

Seeing that we're being told not to drive anywhere unless absolutely necessary, How about some rego relief on our cars and caravans?

The way things are going, I could pay for 6 months rego and not actually drive the car anywhere in that time.

AJ

No tax relief on road tax here but all MOTs post March 31 have been extended by 6mths.

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8 hours ago, Katz said:

I'd like to see it limited to a needs basis, rather than a convenience basis. We are social distancing for a reason. If you're now working from home, keep your kids at home too. Yes, it may be inconvenient, they interrupt alot, whatever, but we're all inconvenienced in so many ways right now. 

The centres should still be receiving the equivalent of whatever rebate or whatever it is from the government whether they have the kids or not, and the centres should only be taking kids whose parents have no other option but to attend an actual workplace. 

Have you found a child care centre that will take Stikman yet?

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2 hours ago, zed said:

Is it logical for Australia to have a ban on international travel until we get a vaccine?

I would think so. 
wouldn’t want to be an anti-vaxxer planning an overseas trip anytime soon 

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8 hours ago, Katz said:

The centres should still be receiving the equivalent of whatever rebate or whatever it is from the government whether they have the kids or not, and the centres should only be taking kids whose parents have no other option but to attend an actual workplace. 

Now that I've seen the details,  I doubt that any childcare centre will be able to look after any more than  60-70%% of their licenced numbers and so will only be able to take those high priority cases anyway.

AJ

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13 minutes ago, roxii said:

I would think so. 
wouldn’t want to be an anti-vaxxer planning an overseas trip anytime soon 

How quiet are they of late.  
 

they make decisions to not get their kids vaccinated, I actually hope they are serious enough to not get the corona one. But we know they will when its going To kill them. 

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16 minutes ago, Peter said:

How quiet are they of late.  
 

they make decisions to not get their kids vaccinated, I actually hope they are serious enough to not get the corona one. But we know they will when its going To kill them. 

Nah.

Most of the anti-vaxxers are younger or middle aged. They're not in the "risk of dying" category, so it won't worry them.

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42 minutes ago, FatPom said:

No tax relief on road tax here but all MOTs post March 31 have been extended by 6mths.

The annoying thing is petrol is at a lower price than it's been in 2 or 3 years here at the moment, and we're hardly using it.

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3 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

The annoying thing is petrol is at a lower price than it's been in 2 or 3 years here at the moment, and we're hardly using it.

Yeah it's come to something when a 6pack of toilet roll can fill your tank!

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