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Bit of a mental check here to see if I have this right.

 

Although it is way too early to say it looks like the daily increase for the last week or so nationally has flattened at approximately 400 per day.  If that rate stays the same, then after 2-3 weeks the recoveries should also be approximately 400 per day and the actual current infections would remain unchanged.  as long as there is not the exponential growth in infections we were seeing.

 

It seems our health system is standing up well so far (and I applaud and thank all involved) I just hope they can keep up with it until the recoveries start matching the new infections.

 

It seems reporting on total recoveries is even less reliable than new cases.

 

The US are hitting 20,000 cases a day (5 times our total cases) and still rising.  No wonder they are struggling.

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Just now, Toolish said:

Bit of a mental check here to see if I have this right.

 

Although it is way too early to say it looks like the daily increase for the last week or so nationally has flattened at approximately 400 per day.  If that rate stays the same, then after 2-3 weeks the recoveries should also be approximately 400 per day and the actual current infections would remain unchanged.  as long as there is not the exponential growth in infections we were seeing.

 

It seems our health system is standing up well so far (and I applaud and thank all involved) I just hope they can keep up with it until the recoveries start matching the new infections.

 

It seems reporting on total recoveries is even less reliable than new cases.

 

The US are hitting 20,000 cases a day (5 times our total cases) and still rising.  No wonder they are struggling.

True, that if we maintain only 400 cases a day this will help, but of those 400, we might have 10 end up in an ICU bed. They don't recover at the same rate as the mild cases, and those on ventilators may take even longer. The numbers using these critical resources will continue to rise and become a higher proportion of the "active cases".

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7 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

True, that if we maintain only 400 cases a day this will help, but of those 400, we might have 10 end up in an ICU bed. They don't recover at the same rate as the mild cases, and those on ventilators may take even longer. The numbers using these critical resources will continue to rise and become a higher proportion of the "active cases".

 

WHO says 5% require ventilation.  So that is 20 a day.  Even after 3 weeks that is 420 ventilators.  Can see how it stretches resources.  Apparently there are about 2000 ventilators currently so if that infection rate goes up much there is a big issue quickly!

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/do-we-have-enough-ventilators-to-fight-coronavirus/12092432

 

Man I hope everyone does the right thing with social distancing! 

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1 minute ago, Toolish said:

 

WHO says 5% require ventilation.  So that is 20 a day.  Even after 3 weeks that is 420 ventilators.  Can see how it stretches resources.  Apparently there are about 2000 ventilators currently so if that infection rate goes up much there is a big issue quickly!

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/do-we-have-enough-ventilators-to-fight-coronavirus/12092432

 

Man I hope everyone does the right thing with social distancing! 

I made my numbers up just to give an idea of how the problem can grow, but yeah, it's serious.

Apparently a number of factories are repurposing to make ventilators and other items. One of GM's factories in the US is hoping to be producing 10,000 copies of an already approved version a month from the end of next month. It also means 1000 people have jobs again. Dyson are doing the same in Europe but with their own design. VW are using their 3D printers to make the difficult to source parts required for a lot of these. Hopefully they can start making a difference.

 

But on the lighter side.

Image may contain: possible text that says '20 years ago we had Johnny Cash, Bob Hope, and Steve Jobs. Now we have no Cash, no Hope, and no Jobs.. Please God dont let Kevin Bacon die.'

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12 minutes ago, Toolish said:

 

WHO says 5% require ventilation.  So that is 20 a day.  Even after 3 weeks that is 420 ventilators.  Can see how it stretches resources.  Apparently there are about 2000 ventilators currently so if that infection rate goes up much there is a big issue quickly!

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/do-we-have-enough-ventilators-to-fight-coronavirus/12092432

 

Man I hope everyone does the right thing with social distancing! 

For a start the WHO World health Organisation have no friggin idea.  Clowns are seriously running it.  They were the original deniers of this who virus. 
 

see pictures of dates and their advice and guidance.  
 

A8DE4088-D9F8-4FF3-A5DF-7DD73099D2AD.jpeg

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Considering the figures are of cases a week or so old and we are yet to see the results of the latest isolation measures I think we are doing “ok”. 
i know there have been some clowns out and about but generally people have been finally taking this pretty seriously.

I still think our major shortfall is the lack of availability of hand sanitizer and face masks.

in a perfect world the govt should be handing out truckloads of the stuff and make it illegal to be in public without a mask on. 

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Problem is I have read face masks are next to useless. So are they effective or is this just another case of misinformation? 

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4 minutes ago, roxii said:

I still think our major shortfall is the lack of availability of hand sanitizer and face masks.

in a perfect world the govt should be handing out truckloads of the stuff and make it illegal to be in public without a mask on. 

I think the general consensus is the wearing of a face mask is no more effective than social distancing measures for the general population and if anything lulls people into a false sense of security on account of their inherent shortcomings, such as a loss of effectiveness once moist. Same goes for the wearing of gloves by the general public. 

As I understand it, the masks should be restricted to the health profession who are unable to both maintain a safe distance and administer care. 

I agree though on the free availability of hand santiser and I would add sanitising wipes also. Stikman and I when going to the supermarket have nothing to wipe down the trolley handle, so instead we keep one of us 'clean' and one 'dirty'. He keeps his hands only on the trolley and I touch everything else, the stuff we are taking home. It's imperfect but better than one of us touching the trolley which a billion others have touched, as well ass the groceries we plan on taking home. I'd love free availability of wipes to be able to clean down both the trolley and the stuff we're bringing home, but it's just not possible. 

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3 minutes ago, more said:

Problem is I have read face masks are next to useless. So are they effective or is this just another case of misinformation? 

they say masks are only of use if you have the virus. 
If you have the virus and are out in public at least with a mask there is some barrier between your sneeze etc and the outside world. 
also wearing a mask inhibits the amount of times you touch your face. 
they may not be 100% effective but any barrier is better than none. And it’s not as though it is an expensive measure. 
whilst ever we are still allowing people to go to work and shop I think if we are not taking every precaution why the hell not? 
 

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6 minutes ago, Katz said:

I agree though on the free availability of hand santiser and I would add sanitising wipes also. Stikman and I when going to the supermarket have nothing to wipe down the trolley handle, so instead we keep one of us 'clean' and one 'dirty'. He keeps his hands only on the trolley and I touch everything else, the stuff we are taking home. It's imperfect but better than one of us touching the trolley which a billion others have touched, as well ass the groceries we plan on taking home. I'd love free availability of wipes to be able to clean down both the trolley and the stuff we're bringing home, but it's just not possible. 

I just use soap now. I have a small squirt bottle (dishwashing liquid bottle) with liquid soap and water. I squirt the handle of the trolley & give it a really good rub before I use it. After shopping I then give my hands a good scrub with it before touching the car.

Either that, or like last night I only had a few things to get so carried my bag and put stuff straight in there. Didn't even unload them at the counter, just got the guy to scan them while in the bag.

Not perfect, but the best I can do in the circumstances.

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13 minutes ago, Katz said:

Stikman and I when going to the supermarket have nothing to wipe down the trolley handle, so instead we keep one of us 'clean' and one 'dirty'.

I, of course, am the dirty one.  No surprises there I guess.

It wouldn't be so bad but as we walk out of the shopping centre she points at me and shouts "unclean, unclean..." to all the other shoppers.

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Was having a laugh with the checkout chick tonight, the guys are allowed to grab the groceries and stock the shelves, I'm allowed to grab the groceries and put them in my trolley and then on the conveyor belt, she is allowed to grab the groceries and scan them... But to then place them in a shopping bag increases the risk of corona virus? I said that I thought it was only for second hand bags but she replied nope, they are not allowed to bag any groceries... 

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Yep crazy.  And the other day they closed the self checkout due to risk.

Fun times.  Did you finally get toilet paper?

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3 hours ago, Katz said:

I think the general consensus is the wearing of a face mask is no more effective than social distancing measures for the general population and if anything lulls people into a false sense of security on account of their inherent shortcomings, such as a loss of effectiveness once moist. Same goes for the wearing of gloves by the general public. 

 

Why is wearing gloves useless?  We wear them anytime we are out, then wash and disinfect them when we get back. We only put them on when exiting the car and house (otherwise you are just spreading whatever you've touched).  We wipe all our grocery packets  down and was all fruit in anti-bacterial soap.

We have masks but they only PP3. I bought 2 packs of 10 when I had a week of to do a load of decorating and sanding.  I think there about 12 left but I'm not sure about their effectiveness.

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17 minutes ago, Peter said:

Yep crazy.  And the other day they closed the self checkout due to risk.

Fun times.  Did you finally get toilet paper?

Nope, had to swipe a roll from work. I havent seen TP in the isle for at least a month. Got a box of tissues for emergencies.. 

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27 minutes ago, FatPom said:

Why is wearing gloves useless?  

As I understand it, it's about the false sense of security. And the permeability of the material they are made of. Single use gloves, especially those used in hospitals etc, are designed for very short periods of use and for a specific purpose. I think it is widely accepted good hand hygiene practice is far more effective than using gloves. 

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9 minutes ago, Katz said:

As I understand it, it's about the false sense of security. And the permeability of the material they are made of. Single use gloves, especially those used in hospitals etc, are designed for very short periods of use and for a specific purpose. I think it is widely accepted good hand hygiene practice is far more effective than using gloves. 

 Using one method does not negate the other. We are washing our hands just as much when we use the gloves as when we don'y.  (ours are multi use and washable nitrile, not medical).  

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I understand the complaint - it's hardly a feast for the senses.

But he chose to leave Australia & go back to the UK after they said for Aussie's to come home the first time.

He has no one to blame but himself.

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Once again Australian Story hits the subject on the head.

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5 hours ago, Katz said:

I think the general consensus is the wearing of a face mask is no more effective than social distancing measures for the general population and if anything lulls people into a false sense of security on account of their inherent shortcomings, such as a loss of effectiveness once moist. Same goes for the wearing of gloves by the general public. 

As I understand it, the masks should be restricted to the health profession who are unable to both maintain a safe distance and administer care. 

I agree though on the free availability of hand santiser and I would add sanitising wipes also. Stikman and I when going to the supermarket have nothing to wipe down the trolley handle, so instead we keep one of us 'clean' and one 'dirty'. He keeps his hands only on the trolley and I touch everything else, the stuff we are taking home. It's imperfect but better than one of us touching the trolley which a billion others have touched, as well ass the groceries we plan on taking home. I'd love free availability of wipes to be able to clean down both the trolley and the stuff we're bringing home, but it's just not possible. 

We share an office with medical suppliers.

One of the guys told us (before we all left & started working from home) that face masks are more effective in stopping a sick person spreading the virus than stopping a healthy person contracting the virus (if you get my drift). 

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1 minute ago, Nick777 said:

We share an office with medical suppliers.

One of the guys told us (before we all left & started working from home) that face masks are more effective in stopping a sick person spreading the virus than stopping a healthy person contracting the virus (if you get my drift). 

That's right. They limit the spread of a cough or sneeze as I understand it.

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50 minutes ago, Nick777 said:

We share an office with medical suppliers.

One of the guys told us (before we all left & started working from home) that face masks are more effective in stopping a sick person spreading the virus than stopping a healthy person contracting the virus (if you get my drift). 

Its why Before all this you see in Asia people wearing them if sick.  Not to avoid getting sick. 

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Coles and woolies up here in Karratha are having their trolley collectors wiping down all Trollies when collecting them and there is also wipes at the trolley area at the supermarket entrance so you can wipe down the trolley before use.  I think that’s great, also the local servo I use has a wipes station at the entrance so you can wipe down your hands before entering.

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Interesting reading in the Australian today about statistics

Statisticians are looking to Germany for clues as to what the virus outcome might be.

Italy’s numbers appear worryingly high, but experts say that is because every person who dies with coronavirus is recorded as dying from it.

“Only 12 per cent of death certificates (of people listed as dying from coronavirus) have shown a direct causality from coronavirus,” said Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s health ministry.

“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.’’

He said while 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, the other 88 per cent of deaths had least one comorbidity – and many had two or three. Each year in Italy there are 17,000 deaths from influenza.

In Germany, on the other hand, any underlying health conditions – often heart disease – are usually noted as the cause of death, rather than the coronavirus.

 

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I read a story about Japan's numbers rising now that the Olympics have been canned.

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9 hours ago, Katz said:

That's right. They limit the spread of a cough or sneeze as I understand it.

Yep, so if you are still going to allow people to mingle at work or at supermarkets, then I still think masks shouls be worn. 

You don't know when you have the virus, you are able to transmit before you have symptoms. 

Anyway I suppose its a moot point as we don't have enough masks. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, roxii said:

Yep, so if you are still going to allow people to mingle at work or at supermarkets, then I still think masks shouls be worn. 

You don't know when you have the virus, you are able to transmit before you have symptoms. 

Anyway I suppose its a moot point as we don't have enough masks. 

 

 

20 for $16 
 

this site is a rabbit hole you could disappear for hours in. 
lve always found it reliable 

https://m.banggood.com/20Pcs-Disposable-Masks-Mouth-Face-Mask-Dust-Proof-Personal-Protection-p-1643183.html?rmmds=home-bottom-recommendation-coldstart

Edited by Peter

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https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/coronavirus-australia-flight-321-from-guangzhou-first-brought-coronavirus-to-australia/news-story/4c3722c2d7a3748025a055b8979ec055

 

Snippet

Coronavirus first arrived in Australia on-board China Southern Airlines flight 321 from Guangzhou that flew into Melbourne on January 19, Four Corners has revealed.

Landing in Australia was a 58-year-old who came from Wuhan, the ABC show said in a special program about its spread in Australia due to a series of “stupid” mistakes by governments and health authorities.

Five days after the plane’s arrival, the 58-year-old passenger went to Monash Medical Centre on the advice of a GP.

He was complaining of having a fever, cough and shortness of breath.

Two days later, a 21-year-old woman from Wuhan studying at the University of New South Wales tested positive.

The same week, on the Queensland Gold Coast, a tour group flew in from Wuhan.

A man and woman from the tour group tested positive for coronavirus and were taken to a Gold Coast hospital.

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Jezzz. 
 

I can almost see i the future if something like this is spooked, there will be a 14 day holiday camp lockdown somewhere in each capital city. 
 

good business to get into.   I still don’t see international flights before next year. 

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3 hours ago, Cat Lady said:

Interesting reading in the Australian today

That would be unusual.

3 hours ago, Cat Lady said:

about statistics

I hazard even more caution then.

Reliable cause of death data is something which takes many months or longer to become available and varies greatly around the world. For a start, in many places deaths are not reported electronically (or there is a mix of reporting methods) and the manual data is not available for some time.

Even comparing current death rates to typical death rates at same time of year is not reliable since you have to account for other factors in play, e.g. lack of traffic = fewer road deaths.

Most of the numbers we are seeing mask many things and have a variety of unknown levels of bias be it political, systematic, cultural, demographic and so on.

I just don't think we really know what we're dealing with but given the scale of the government's response, it's not good. If they really do make their modelling public, that will be interesting to see.

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5 minutes ago, Paul Every said:

Having a root has been deemed a reasonable excuse to leave your home in Tassie.

I thought they kept that all in the family? 

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8 minutes ago, Paul Every said:

Having a root has been deemed a reasonable excuse to leave your home in Tassie.

Surely that would only be with the opposite sex, or have they progressed that far already?

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Quote

Virgin Australia has gone into a trading halt while seeking a $1.4 billion loan rescue package to ensure its survival after the COVID-19 crisis is over.

According to The Australian, Virgin chief executive Paul Scurrah put a proposal to the government last week that would see it take an ownership stake in the company if it was unable to repay the loan within two to three years.

 

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Geez, the world has gone crazy. Golf Australia has closed all courses from midnight last night. I may need to move onto the mental health thread. 

FM

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28 minutes ago, Flanman said:

Geez, the world has gone crazy. Golf Australia has closed all courses from midnight last night. I may need to move onto the mental health thread. 

FM

Please see my post in the cave thread.  Planning a swing rebuild seen as I can't get to the course for a while!

 

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4 hours ago, Flanman said:

Geez, the world has gone crazy. Golf Australia has closed all courses from midnight last night. I may need to move onto the mental health thread. 

FM

Become a putting wizard. We have a putting green set up in the lounge room (cough *golf balls and putter* cough). Cat loves it.

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4 minutes ago, Merv said:

Waiting for boat ramps to close, have a plan B.

Some down here are already closed 

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13 minutes ago, Peter said:

Current update sorted by dead 

 

China seem to have misplaced a decimal point...

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