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Coronavirus

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5 hours ago, BarryBevan said:

I agree (earth shakes). Those markets caused this and SARS. If this is the tradition can we please stop, the cost is a bit more than we can bear.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/19/health/coronavirus-animals-markets.html

How do we prevent or minimise the damage caused by another pandemic? Even best case scenario we will be hit hard, economically, worst case is a decade long recession or worse, something on a par with the Great Depression?. Surely we can't run the risk of another catastrophic pandemic. I guess this will quickly become the elephant in the room, but do we restrict travel for all Chinese nationals? Corona virus, SARS, bird flu and even the Spanish flu all stemmed from China. For a relatively developed country they are obviously doing something very wrong. Do they need health reform or radical cultural reform, stopping eating disease riddled animals could be a start? Do we apply sanctions until they meet certain criteria?

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Not even testing everyone now in Italy. 
 

With Italy testing only people with severe symptoms, the head of the Civil Protection Agency said the true number of infected people was probably 10 times higher.

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-update-italy-deaths-now-double-china-after-surge/ff95cf31-c13b-4117-b6e3-c91968b612ca

 

Edited by Peter

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16 minutes ago, Peter said:

Not even testing everyone now in Italy. 
 

With Italy testing only people with severe symptoms, the head of the Civil Protection Agency said the true number of infected people was probably 10 times higher.

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-update-italy-deaths-now-double-china-after-surge/ff95cf31-c13b-4117-b6e3-c91968b612ca

 

scary

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21 minutes ago, Peter said:

Not even testing everyone now in Italy. 
 

With Italy testing only people with severe symptoms, the head of the Civil Protection Agency said the true number of infected people was probably 10 times higher.

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-update-italy-deaths-now-double-china-after-surge/ff95cf31-c13b-4117-b6e3-c91968b612ca

 

Which probably explains the very high death rate.

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12 hours ago, Prince said:

I don’t think there is enough evidence to say they have failed nor have I found in the research I have been doing that any country has had similar measures to what we have. We already have thousands working from home and thousands of business closed as well as the banning of all social gatherings.  
It is a fine balance between making a decision to totally decimate our economy and to guarantee we will have the worst unemployment Ever with the flow on effects which could be unimaginable.  People will literally be homeless.  If there  was a lockdown just remember what it would mean. All shops closed, no public tspt, all hotels and motels shut,no schools, and so on.  This would be for a minimum of  2-6 months with zero guarantee it won’t flare up again.  
We may well to a lockdown but to me it is totally worth trying everything we can first.  We can’t compare ourselves to other countries as well as we have a less dense population than New York or London    I also feel that perhaps we need to build up a natural immunity to this thing so maybe the only way through it is to face it head on 

 

Are you proposing we "build up a natural immunity" by taking measures that would expose many more people to infection in a reduced period of time, while placing both medical resources and medical personel under greater duress, in turn resulting in a greater number of deaths?

Or have I totally missed your line of thought?

This is a novel coronavirus. That is what presents a difficulty with developing a vaccine in a short period of time. It's not like an annual mutation of the flu. It's RNA/DNA hasn't derived from humans.

I'm not an virologist or immunologist, but it wouldn't surprise me if being a novel virus also has an impact on the ability of the population to "build up a natural immunity".

 

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23 minutes ago, Peter said:

said the true number of infected people was probably 10 times higher.

The drs are saying the same is probably true here as well. 

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7 minutes ago, roxii said:

The drs are saying the same is probably true here as well. 

Correct. I know people that have the typical symptoms they talk about, but because they haven't arrived from OS, or have been in contact with a known carrier, they are just told to stay at home till they get better. They are told they won't be tested.

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13 minutes ago, roxii said:

The drs are saying the same is probably true here as well. 

Unless I needed an ambo, I wouldn’t get tested.  
 

then there is this for our shire friends. 
 

131087DA-0D15-4871-B229-5B1A9A8E2932.jpeg

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Will wait to see if any further update to numbers tonight but as of 7pm the number of new COVID cases today (247) was significantly less than yesterday (429) and less than the trend suggests (503). It could be an anomaly (e.g. some health depts are changing when they report).

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13 hours ago, Prince said:

I don’t think there is enough evidence to say they have failed nor have I found in the research I have been doing that any country has had similar measures to what we have. We already have thousands working from home and thousands of business closed as well as the banning of all social gatherings.  
It is a fine balance between making a decision to totally decimate our economy and to guarantee we will have the worst unemployment Ever with the flow on effects which could be unimaginable.  People will literally be homeless.  If there  was a lockdown just remember what it would mean. All shops closed, no public tspt, all hotels and motels shut,no schools, and so on.  This would be for a minimum of  2-6 months with zero guarantee it won’t flare up again.  
We may well to a lockdown but to me it is totally worth trying everything we can first.  We can’t compare ourselves to other countries as well as we have a less dense population than New York or London    I also feel that perhaps we need to build up a natural immunity to this thing so maybe the only way through it is to face it head on 

 

The UK isn't London and the US isn't New York. In terms of density and the social distancing, there would be very little difference between Sydney and Melbourne and a host of other worldwide big cities that have high infection rates.  

The UK tried the 'herd mentality' tactic whilst following the science and then did U-turn claiming the 'science had changed', which of course it hadn't, it's just their interpretation of the science had changed.   The other reasons herd mentality strategy is not practical are because of the sheer amount of deaths (UK predicted 2.5m) and the health service being completely overwhelmed.  Few countries can cope with that.

The UK is now playing catch up because it rolled the dice on 'trying something else'.  The big advantage Oz has is that you are ahead on hard borders and flight restrictions.  That may give some leeway on health service pressure but not enough for a risky herd mentality.

And you're right, people will be homeless and the effects will be devastating financially but it's either that, or a ton of your population dead. I don't think the UK lockdown has gone far enough, there are too many trying to take the piss. Mostly dog owners who claim they absolutely must walk them 3-4 times a day, don't want to let their own dogs shit in heir own gardens and a host of other people that just don't get it.

I say this as a person that has just lost his job, I have a mortgage to pay and a 6yr old to homeschool and try and keep sane. I also have an 83 yr old mother 2hrs away that I can't see and am worried about.

Just read that UK have bought 3.5m testing kits, lets see those numbers now. I'm sure it will be scary.

Edited by FatPom

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1 hour ago, Alex Simmons said:

Well we won't mention mad cow disease then which originated in the UK. That kinda screwed things up a bit for a while. Not quite like this has but I think we need to be careful about laying cultural blame.

Well it wasn't completely foreseeable, it was far less transmissible and it's impact was a fraction of what we're seeing now

But yeah, totally the same 

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7 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Not at all, on both counts 

How one of the most authoritarian regimes on earth still allows it's people to eat f*cking bats is beyond me

Rhino horn, tiger penis, pangolin scales........It's easier to prohibit some traditional practices than it is to stop them. Especially when there's decent money involved in a relatively impoverished society.

It's also easy to look at some of these as "illogical third world behaviours", while at the same time our society spends millions on vitamins and another supplements which are no more beneficial for our health.

 

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7 hours ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Probably not what your daughter is after, but for anyone else deciding on take-away options. A number of strippers from clubs that have closed down are now doing takeaway deliveries under the guise of "Boober Eats". Should be in Aus any day now.

I think Roxii might prefer she stacked shelves at Coles.

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1 hour ago, Alex Simmons said:

Oh, and the Amputee Clinic has been closed as of today.

Apparently prosthetics are non essential but you can still get a hair cut.

Hair cuts are definitely non-essential.

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1 hour ago, Paul Every said:

Are you proposing we "build up a natural immunity" by taking measures that would expose many more people to infection in a reduced period of time, while placing both medical resources and medical personel under greater duress, in turn resulting in a greater number of deaths?

Or have I totally missed your line of thought?

This is a novel coronavirus. That is what presents a difficulty with developing a vaccine in a short period of time. It's not like an annual mutation of the flu. It's RNA/DNA hasn't derived from humans.

I'm not an virologist or immunologist, but it wouldn't surprise me if being a novel virus also has an impact on the ability of the population to "build up a natural immunity".

 

No.  I am saying this may well be the way it will subside eventually which is no different to many viruses where there is no vaccine.  I am not proposing we intentionally expose ourselves to the risk however.    

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41 minutes ago, Paul Every said:

Rhino horn, tiger penis, pangolin scales........It's easier to prohibit some traditional practices than it is to stop them. Especially when there's decent money involved in a relatively impoverished society.

It's also easy to look at some of these as "illogical third world behaviours", while at the same time our society spends millions on vitamins and another supplements which are no more beneficial for our health.

 

I'm not aware of any vitamin or supplement causing a global pandemic 

Happy to be proven wrong though

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54 minutes ago, FatPom said:

The UK isn't London and the US isn't New York. In terms of density and the social distancing, there would be very little difference between Sydney and Melbourne and a host of other worldwide big cities that have high infection rates.  

The UK tried the 'herd mentality' tactic whilst following the science and then did U-turn claiming the 'science had changed', which of course it hadn't, it's just their interpretation of the science had changed.   The other reasons herd mentality strategy is not practical are because of the sheer amount of deaths (UK predicted 2.5m) and the health service being completely overwhelmed.  Few countries can cope with that.

The UK is now playing catch up because it rolled the dice on 'trying something else'.  The big advantage Oz has is that you are ahead on hard borders and flight restrictions.  That may give some leeway on health service pressure but not enough for a risky herd mentality.

And you're right, people will be homeless and the effects will be devastating financially but it's either that, or a ton of your population dead. I don't think the UK lockdown has gone far enough, there are too many trying to take the piss. Mostly dog owners who claim they absolutely must walk them 3-4 times a day, don't want to let their own dogs shit in heir own gardens and a host of other people that just don't get it.

I say this as a person that has just lost his job, I have a mortgage to pay and a 6yr old to homeschool and try and keep sane. I also have an 83 yr old mother 2hrs away that I can't see and am worried about.

Just read that UK have bought 3.5m testing kits, lets see those numbers now. I'm sure it will be scary.

But you don’t know the effects that the strategies that were put in place a week ago or even two weeks ago were successful or not due to the lag in showing up in symptoms or testing. 
They may very well have been enough but we won’t know    I am hypothesising of course but don’t want deaths plus a ruined economy unless it is 100 percent guaranteed that a complete lockdown will totally eradicate it. Like you I also don’t have faith that the morons in our society will step up and not put al the responsibility on the government.  Ask not what your country can do for you.....   you know the rest 

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1 minute ago, Prince said:

But you don’t know the effects that the strategies that were put in place a week ago or even two weeks ago were successful or not due to the lag in showing up in symptoms or testing. 

A wide shot of a large amount of sand and water, with many people on it.

I don't think they were unfortunately.

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Some of these penalties for breaching border restrictions will be quite steep. 

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1 hour ago, Peter said:

Unless I needed an ambo, I wouldn’t get tested.  
 

then there is this for our shire friends. 
 

131087DA-0D15-4871-B229-5B1A9A8E2932.jpeg

Yeah apparently there is a positive case from a Menai marketplace employee last Thursday. 
guess where I shopped last Thursday on the way home from work? 

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24 minutes ago, Prince said:

But you don’t know the effects that the strategies that were put in place a week ago or even two weeks ago were successful or not due to the lag in showing up in symptoms or testing. 
They may very well have been enough but we won’t know    I am hypothesising of course but don’t want deaths plus a ruined economy unless it is 100 percent guaranteed that a complete lockdown will totally eradicate it. Like you I also don’t have faith that the morons in our society will step up and not put al the responsibility on the government.  Ask not what your country can do for you.....   you know the rest 

Yeah it's hard to know.  I had some faith that the UK were following the science but the rapid way they changed their minds destroyed a lot of people's confidence I think.  Most countries are to some degree, making it up as we go along. One thing is for certain, a destroyed economy is a certainty,  very few are coming out of this untouched in some way.

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13 minutes ago, FatPom said:

Yeah it's hard to know.  I had some faith that the UK were following the science but the rapid way they changed their minds destroyed a lot of people's confidence I think.  Most countries are to some degree, making it up as we go along. One thing is for certain, a destroyed economy is a certainty,  very few are coming out of this untouched in some way.

Unfortunately, people believe too much in the “science is settled” not talking climate change here, but the science in medicine.  Evidence continually evolves as more data comes into play.  IMHO we really won’t know the best course of action for quite a while.  I was reading today that Most clinical trials in the uk have come to a halt and all researchers and resources are being directed towards the corona virus.  They are going to be awash in evidence and a lot of it will be contradictory.  I would hate to be the organisation tasked with pulling it all together to make some sense of it all. 

Edited by Cat Lady
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I think we need to be careful about laying cultural blame.

It's inevitable. This virus came from China and if it kills millions, then there will be a lot of angry people. Even if it doesn't, the economic toll it has already taken is very high and will similarly anger a lot of people. Not saying any anger would be justified, but it's going to happen. And there will be a lot of people calling for sanctions. 

 

 

 

Edited by zed

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I’m still amazed Trump hasn’t mentioned  suing China over this yet. 

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13 minutes ago, roxii said:

I’m still amazed Trump hasn’t mentioned  suing China over this yet. 

Busy prepping his ICBMs for imminent launch

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Prince Charles has tested positive 😮

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4 hours ago, Alex Simmons said:

Well we won't mention mad cow disease then which originated in the UK. That kinda screwed things up a bit for a while. Not quite like this has but I think we need to be careful about laying cultural blame.

We don't need your common sense around these parts, Alex :lamo:

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11 minutes ago, AA7 said:

Prince Charles has tested positive 😮

Prince William will be like.  Party time next in line 

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1 hour ago, Cat Lady said:

Unfortunately, people believe too much in the “science is settled” not talking climate change here, but the science in medicine.  Evidence continually evolves as more data comes into play.  IMHO we really won’t know the best course of action for quite a while.  I was reading today that Most clinical trials in the uk have come to a halt and all researchers and resources are being directed towards the corona virus.  They are going to be awash in evidence and a lot of it will be contradictory.  I would hate to be the organisation tasked with pulling it all together to make some sense of it all. 

We'll probably have a referendum to decide which one we like, 'cos you know, that goes well!

Anyway, I think the main thing we should bear in mind is, I'm making progress on my patio doors. 👍

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11 hours ago, more said:

Strong logic..getting upset at mum not isolating...while you are not isolating...

Noone said we need to be locked down in a house/room etc. You can pretty much go and do as your please when solo or very small groups as long as you adhere to what the governement are suggesting. 

People can train like MrFlower did.

I myself swam at Manly Dam this morning with IronJimbo in the pitch darkness. It was fantastic. Water was like glass. Being in the middle of a dam in pure darkness and stopping and taking it all in is quite magical. Can't wait for the Full moon to arrive.

Also, I went and rode 45Km todays as well. solo... no crime in that.

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55 minutes ago, Fitness Buddy said:

So is bottleshops

I'll drop my 3 kids all home from school around and ask you that in a week

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16 minutes ago, IronmanFoz said:

Being in the middle of a dam in pure darkness and stopping and taking it all in is quite magical. Can't wait for the Full moon to arrive.

The most magical experience I've had was during a total lunar eclipse. I swam out into the middle of Enoggera Dam on my own at 3am under the full moon, and while out there the moon totally disappeared for the eclipse. Complete blackness. It was incredible.

Probably not something that would be considered sensible, but hell, it was worth it.

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2 hours ago, Prince said:

No.  I am saying this may well be the way it will subside eventually which is no different to many viruses where there is no vaccine.  I am not proposing we intentionally expose ourselves to the risk however.    

Though giving every other action precedence before applying the lockdown, that intentionally exposes the population to greater risk. I'm not sure how else to interpret your comment:

"We may well to a lockdown but to me it is totally worth trying everything we can first. "

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My daughter has just been over & I was helping her with an application for one of the Centrelink jobs. We were discussing what's going down at the moment. It's probably one of those things that's going to go down in books as a history changing event. Not a WW1 or WW2, but I think it's going to be the most significant period in history that most of us experience. They'll be talking about this in Modern History classes for the next 100 years.

Edited by Ex-Hasbeen

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8 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

I swam out into the middle of Enoggera Dam

You can't do that now.

Closed.

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2 minutes ago, Tyno said:

You can't do that now.

Closed.

Actually you can. It closes in 2 hours. :(

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I can only assume they are trying to prevent a Bondi type scene at the dam now all the pools are closed.

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2 minutes ago, Tyno said:

I can only assume they are trying to prevent a Bondi type scene at the dam now all the pools are closed.

Probably, but with Winter coming on, I can't imagine more than a dozen of us out there. 

If I wasn't on my 4th double scotch I'd race out and have a quick dip before it closes.

 

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28 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

My daughter has just been over & I was helping her with an application for one of the Centrelink jobs. We were discussing what's going down at the moment. It's probably one of those things that's going to go down in books as a history changing event. Not a WW1 or WW2, but I think it's going to be the most significant period in history that most of us experience. They'll be talking about this in Modern History classes for the next 100 years.

yup quite possible. 

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Had a takeaway from my favourite Italian restaurant today. Was a little bit more expensive than competitors around, but smashed them all out of the ball park with flavour. 

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4 hours ago, zed said:

How do we prevent or minimise the damage caused by another pandemic? Even best case scenario we will be hit hard, economically, worst case is a decade long recession or worse, something on a par with the Great Depression?. Surely we can't run the risk of another catastrophic pandemic. I guess this will quickly become the elephant in the room, but do we restrict travel for all Chinese nationals? Corona virus, SARS, bird flu and even the Spanish flu all stemmed from China. For a relatively developed country they are obviously doing something very wrong. Do they need health reform or radical cultural reform, stopping eating disease riddled animals could be a start? Do we apply sanctions until they meet certain criteria?

Well now we are going into interesting conversation. We tend to accept/ignore aspects of China due to the benefit we obtain and their immense power.

Are we willing to discuss, when you think about all the threats we think about and prepare for, we didn't think about this (well we did but people disbanded the agents doing the work, and removed funding from health). Who would have thought extra ventilators masks and basic capability in health would be the things we needed.

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3 hours ago, Prince said:

But you don’t know the effects that the strategies that were put in place a week ago or even two weeks ago were successful or not due to the lag in showing up in symptoms or testing. 
They may very well have been enough but we won’t know    I am hypothesising of course but don’t want deaths plus a ruined economy unless it is 100 percent guaranteed that a complete lockdown will totally eradicate it. Like you I also don’t have faith that the morons in our society will step up and not put al the responsibility on the government.  Ask not what your country can do for you.....   you know the rest 

A lockdown isn't so much designed to eradicate the virus, rather reduce the rate and extent of transmission.

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3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm not aware of any vitamin or supplement causing a global pandemic 

Happy to be proven wrong though

Agree again (There will be a bloody earthquake soon), who cares if you urine glows from eating vitamins. These practices are literally killing us and destroying our economies.

Think the vitamin firms are okay by comparison.

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3 hours ago, Prince said:

But you don’t know the effects that the strategies that were put in place a week ago or even two weeks ago were successful or not due to the lag in showing up in symptoms or testing. 

Lockdown was introduced to the worst hit areas of Italy on march 9. This is what the graph looks like now. Early days, but a "glass half full" person would say it is working at that 2 week point.

image.png.38d9ab4b37e42b12e7d0909ae5c0a3fa.png

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3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm not aware of any vitamin or supplement causing a global pandemic 

Happy to be proven wrong though

I'm not for a moment suggesting so. Nor am I any more enamoured with what happens in such markets as you.

Admittedly, I made an exceedingly clumsy analogy.

My point was there's often difficulty in changing some less-than-sensible social practices, especially when there's a lot of money involved, irrespective of where they occur in the world.

Edited by Paul Every

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