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Peter

Brownlee olympics and Kona predictions

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I’m tipping that Alister Brownlee will go to the Olympics with zero intention of a medal. 

He will be a domestic for his brother or probably a better guess Alex Yee.

he will swim and if needed ride and pull yee to the front of the bike and yee will smash everyone on the run and get another gold for the UK. 

Brownlee and really work on his swim bike and avoid injuries and just focus on his longer running in the months after the Olympics leading into Kona. 

He will obvious still run train but not at the speed needed for the Olympics, but for Kona. 

Whats your prediction?

someone bookmark this. 

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Top 5 at both. I think he will get out at the front of the swim, totally bludge the bike, and run reasonably well in Tokyo.

I think he will go very well at Kona, it wouldn't surprise me if he podiums.

All assuming he stays injury free.

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I think my suggestion above helps him greatly staying injury free.  At least until after the Olympics.

I've actually changed my opinion.  I think he can win Kona.  It's just going to take a few years.  Maybe by 2023-24

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8 minutes ago, Prince said:

i am not convinced he will qualify. 

The UK will have some discretionary leeway on who they pick for their team, and "Defending Champion" would be the easy sell at that point.

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15 minutes ago, Cape_Horn said:

The UK will have some discretionary leeway on who they pick for their team, and "Defending Champion" would be the easy sell at that point.

Unless they are stupid like Australia and leave him out like we did Snowsill

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Who are the contenders for the third spot on the UK Olympic Team. Yee and JB seem to be the two form British ITU racers at the moment. Of hand I can’t think of a serious rival to deny AB another Olympic shot. If he does qualify, there is little chance that he’ll go to make up the numbers: he’ll be chasing a medal. I reckon he’d actually like to anchor the relay team as well.

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12 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

Who are the contenders for the third spot on the UK Olympic Team. Yee and JB seem to be the two form British ITU racers at the moment. Of hand I can’t think of a serious rival to deny AB another Olympic shot. If he does qualify, there is little chance that he’ll go to make up the numbers: he’ll be chasing a medal. I reckon he’d actually like to anchor the relay team as well.

The GB team have to qualify a third spot, it is very different qualifying  this year, they are a fair way off having 3. In fact Aus only have 2 spots at the moment and Royle is only just holding on by his teeth to that ranking. To qualify 3 a country needs 3 in the top 30 ranking. Aus have Jake at 3rd Aaron 28th  and Willian 31st. GB have Jonny B 11Th and Yee is 32nd  Bishop 37th. So at this stage 3 starters isn't happening for either team. 

Edited by Trier

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2 hours ago, Peter said:

Yeah but Alister can now focus on getting a 3rd spot.

When's the cutoff date @Trier

 

He is ranked 89th at the moment on 1300 points he needs to win 2 WTS races and place well in a couple of others, or 3x 2nds might do it. Others will still be acrueing points too though. Yokohama is the last points race. Let's not forget his race times for his last win a couple years ago was around a minute slower than rhe winning time of that same race this year. He hasn't had WTS racing all his own way for 3 years now, it is different again.

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15 hours ago, Greyman said:

He won't qualify for the Olympics and he won't win Kona.

I thought he would do better in Kona, but then some of his race tactics were a bit odd, although we all know how competitive and aggressive he is, so perhaps not surprising. Although he is a seasoned professional, he knows about HR and watts and heat and pacing. He was done half way through the bike, you could see that when TD was calling him and Frodo up to do some work. Lesson learned though. He went way to hard at the start of the bike to drop Lange and co and then smashed himself getting back to the front after his flat. Even Wurf was blown away he did that. Kudos to him, he doesn't hold back and will win Kona one day, but he needs to control his aggression. He would have been better, accepting it wasn't his day after the flat, riding with the chase pack and looking at a top 10 finish.

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8 minutes ago, zed said:

Anyone know what tyres he had, was it GP 5000s?

Hope not.  I just bought 2

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5 minutes ago, Peter said:

Hope not.  I just bought 2

I've had them on my roadie since July and ridden shit roads with no issues. I also never flatted in 3 years with my 4000s so you should be alright. Pretty sure he raced with the 5000s as did Wurf.

Edited by zed

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Do they still have the rule of allocating a slot to the country that wins their Continental championships? If so, Alastair qualified Britain for an extra slot by winning this year’s European championships back in June.

Edited by Andrew #1

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Killing himself to get back to the front group at Kona shows what kind of athlete he is. I do not think that he would agree to be a domestique.

Olympics - top 10

Kona - top 3

 

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One thing I noticed in the highlights video from Busselton: AB had a cap on for the marathon. A change from Kona. He’s learning.

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4 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

Do they still have the rule of allocating a slot to the country that wins their Continental championships? If so, Alastair qualified Britain for an extra slot by winning this year’s European championships back in June.

Nope

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Hope I am wrong. But I suspect he will get injured trying to get himself into medal contention form for the Olympics and miss Kona as a result

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I just don't think I can cope with another year of comments on how he's no good in the heat...

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1 hour ago, zed said:

I just don't think I can cope with another year of comments on how he's no good in the heat...

With the heatwave in Perth he did just fine.  And in Brazil where I believe he won Gold he coped okay too.

That discussion is now dead.

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32 minutes ago, Peter said:

With the heatwave in Perth he did just fine.  And in Brazil where I believe he won Gold he coped okay too.

That discussion is now dead.

Would have been interesting a couple days later. I think Perth was 6 degrees hotter on Tuesday or Wednesday than it was race day. There would either have been a lot of DNF's, or a lot of PB's.

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11 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Would have been interesting a couple days later. I think Perth was 6 degrees hotter on Tuesday or Wednesday than it was race day. There would either have been a lot of DNF's, or a lot of PB's.

Please.  Busso was the hottest windiest day ever apparently

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1 minute ago, Peter said:

Please.  Busso was the hottest windiest day ever apparently

Certainly not the windiest day, but the wind did a complete 180 part way through the bike... which contributed to a lot of peeps (inc me) overbiking. 

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1 hour ago, Peter said:

With the heatwave in Perth he did just fine.  And in Brazil where I believe he won Gold he coped okay too.

That discussion is now dead.

Sadly those type of discussions are never dead.  Seems to happen in every sport. You have two bad days in similar conditions or circumstances and you are labelled as having a problem for the rest of your career (despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary).

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2 hours ago, Peter said:

With the heatwave in Perth he did just fine.  And in Brazil where I believe he won Gold he coped okay too.

That discussion is now dead.

There was a significant amount of post race analysis of the differences in Kona/Busso temperatures, dew points and relative humidity so if the discussion will never die for the armchair quarterbacks out there...

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He will be implicated in the “revenge” PED usage release of non Russian athletes using Russian facilities from RUSADA.

Although eventually cleared the stress caused in clearing his name will mean he will never win another major triathlon again, or be selected for the UK Olympic team.

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1 hour ago, BarryBevan said:

The Russian thing is hilarious. They should go back and can USA golds and times from the 80s starting with Carl Lewis 

Imagine how Shane Perkins feels.

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The growing anti-doping forces exercised their clout at the 1983 Pan American Games in Caracas, Venezuela, where drug-testing machines popped 15 competitors. Word of the positives sent 12 American track and field athletes packing before ever putting a spike on the track

 

Wanting to avoid similar awkwardness at the Los Angeles Olympics in 1984, the USOC screened U.S. athletes at UCLA’s lab before the Games. Because the tests were informational and not official, of the 86 Americans who were positive, only two were denied spots on the Olympic team. During the final week of the Games, some 20 medal winners, many from track and field disciplines, tested positive. When a document linking athletes’ names to the urine samples mysteriously disappeared from an IOC hotel room, the doped victors kept their medals

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22 hours ago, Peter said:

With the heatwave in Perth he did just fine.  And in Brazil where I believe he won Gold he coped okay too.

That discussion is now dead.

the heat discussion is definitely  dead.  

 

Lets discuss how he can't handle the humidity...... 

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Considering GB's mens position in the qualifying points system at the moment, and unless both Yee (likely, currently 32nd in rankings) and Bishop (37th) manage to bring themselves in the top 30, the most likely way for Alistair to make it to Tokyo is for the GB selectors to choose him instead of either Alex Yee or his brother.  Both would be upsets in their own way. Plus Alistair needs to score points to be at least in the 100? of ITU points to be eligible.

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On 09/01/2020 at 4:02 PM, DiaboloACT said:

Considering GB's mens position in the qualifying points system at the moment, and unless both Yee (likely, currently 32nd in rankings) and Bishop (37th) manage to bring themselves in the top 30, the most likely way for Alistair to make it to Tokyo is for the GB selectors to choose him instead of either Alex Yee or his brother.  Both would be upsets in their own way. Plus Alistair needs to score points to be at least in the 100? of ITU points to be eligible.

I’ve heard that TeamGB has done some deal with the ITU and Alister has been confirmed a start.  

And to be honest, I have no issue with the past Olympic champion cgetting a free start. 

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On 14/01/2020 at 9:38 PM, Peter said:

I’ve heard that TeamGB has done some deal with the ITU and Alister has been confirmed a start.  

And to be honest, I have no issue with the past Olympic champion cgetting a free start. 

Maybe they have and he can get one of the GB start spots without being ranked I  the top 140 or whatever, but not just an extra spot, they couldn't do that. If GB qualify only 2 then they will need to decide, surely

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18 minutes ago, Trier said:

Maybe they have and he can get one of the GB start spots without being ranked I  the top 140 or whatever, but not just an extra spot, they couldn't do that. If GB qualify only 2 then they will need to decide, surely

maybe.  We will find out soon.  It's not like GB wouldnt have a plan.  They arent triathlon australia

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3 hours ago, Peter said:

maybe.  We will find out soon.  It's not like GB wouldnt have a plan.  They arent triathlon australia

By my reckoning there are 3 World Series races and 7 World Cup races - each earning Individual Olympic qualification points to run between February and the cut off on 11 May. The ranking lists will change considerably between now and then. Lots of chances for both Australia and GB to secure 3 spots in each gender. 
 

I wonder how much ITU racing AB is planning on doing until May? He’s got a maximum of 7 races in this second phase of qualifying to score points - and he’s only done two events thus far. Whilst he’s only ranked 89th a few big points hauls could see him break into the top 30 on his own steam. There are a couple of other male GB athletes floating around the top 30 as well that will be keen to impress selectors. 

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On 09/01/2020 at 4:02 PM, DiaboloACT said:

Considering GB's mens position in the qualifying points system at the moment, and unless both Yee (likely, currently 32nd in rankings) and Bishop (37th) manage to bring themselves in the top 30, the most likely way for Alistair to make it to Tokyo is for the GB selectors to choose him instead of either Alex Yee or his brother.  Both would be upsets in their own way. Plus Alistair needs to score points to be at least in the 100? of ITU points to be eligible.

Both Yee and Bishop don’t have many races left before they start cannibalising the points they have already earned from their (5?) points results from phase 2 qualifying. Only the best 7 races count. Wheat as Brownlee and a couple of other GB athletes ranked between 50-100 have another 5 races before they cannibalise the points they already have in the bank.

 

i remember in 2008 when Tim Don went from nowhere on the rankings list to qualifying comfortably on the back of several back to back top 5 finishes (including a World Cup win). So someone could come home from nowhere atm on the back of some solid performances in the next 4 months.

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Looking at who needs to be bumped out to move into the top 30 it will not be simple. Some very strong athletes hanging in the 25-35. I do hope Aus can do it though. Don't we only have 1 safely in at the moment?

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