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lachie94

Kona 2019 Picks

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We’re getting closer to the big dance, so here is mine:

Women

1. Daniela Ryf

2. Laura Phillip

3. Anne Haug 

Men

1. Jan Frodeno

2. Braden Currie

3. Sebastian Kienle or Cam Wurf (if in same swim group, Kienle. If Kienle doesn’t make Wurf pack then Wurf)

Edited by lachie94
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12 minutes ago, Aergia said:
  1. Charles‐Barclay
  2. Haug
  3. Bartlett

 

  1. Currie
  2. McNamee
  3. Wurf

DNF for Ryf?

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1. Ryf

Daylight

2. Charles-Barclay

3. Haug

 

1. Wurf

2. Frodeno

3. Brownlee

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35 minutes ago, KieranR said:

Teresa

lucy

Daniella

 

jan

mike phillips

braden battling with terenzo and wurf for third

Teresa isnt racing is she?

Not biased towards the silver fern at all.. 😉 

 

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55 minutes ago, KieranR said:

Teresa

lucy

Daniella

 

Dreaming if you think Daniela Bleymehl (GER) is going to win. Yep you need to be more specific with names ;)

PS: Start list for Male/Female is:

https://www.triathlete.com/2019/10/ironman/kona-start-list-the-98-pros-ready-to-race_383059

 

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8 hours ago, AJS said:

1. Ryf

Daylight

2. Charles-Barclay

3. Haug

 

1. Wurf

2. Frodeno

3. Brownlee

Yeah I got same peeps, just different combo for mens:

1.Ryf

2. Charles-Barclay

3. Haug

1. Frodeno
2.Brownlee

3. Wurf

Lange to finish 7th, Sanders just outside the top 10.

 

Edited by zed

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Anyone watch Rinny's youtube channel? Was that a little bit of a cynical dig at Ryf?

"Well Daneilla rides faster than my husband, which is erm (pause) pretty (cough) incredible.... cue tumbleweed.....

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Women:

1. Ryf

2. Lucy

3. Huag

 

Men

1. Frodeno

2. Lange

3. Wurf

 

7 minutes ago, zed said:

1. Frodeno
2.Brownlee

3. Brownlee.

Brownlee going to claim two spots on the poduim is he? :)

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12 minutes ago, zed said:

Anyone watch Rinny's youtube channel? Was that a little bit of a cynical dig at Ryf?

"Well Daneilla rides faster than my husband, which is erm (pause) pretty (cough) incredible.... cue tumbleweed.....

Yeah thought that was quite funny.. she was 10 mins slower than him last year on a good day and he's hardly an uber biker... she was 2 mins faster than your mate Lange even though he drafted his ass off.. 😉 

she was 25 mins slower than him in 2017 so not sure what her story is there.. In saying that she was 25 mins faster than other women so..

I cant handle her whiney nasal voice..

Edited by pieman

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Women: Ryf, Charles-Barclay, Crowley

Men: Frodeno, Wurf, Lange

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1 hour ago, pieman said:

Teresa isnt racing is she?

Not biased towards the silver fern at all.. 😉 

 

The Kiwis are coming! Not just in this sport, we’re even going well in BMX at the moment and in the MTB world champs recently we had a kiwi holding top spot for a very long time until the French stole our thunder! World champs in netball right now, can’t see the AB’s losing the World Cup in Japan! Even the cuzzy in the TT in Yorkshire last week held top spot for a bit!  Good to see some cuzzys repping NZ proudly!  Even Simon Crafer is doing a brilliant job being the roaming pit reporter for MotoGP..  can’t mistake his kiwi accent!

 

i Just wish Carl read would qualify, the best mullet in triathlon would get my vote! Purely on level of Radness 

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2 hours ago, dazmuzza said:

Women:

1. Ryf

2. Lucy

3. Huag

 

Men

1. Frodeno

2. Lange

3. Wurf

 

Brownlee going to claim two spots on the poduim is he? :)

Oops Wurf for 3rd! 

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Good to see not much love for Lange. Over on ST they've got him winning it at a canter... 

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Think Lange might be playing some mental games by not really doing much this year - no one really knows what kind of form he is in, at least from what I read. 

Still think he's got a massive massive chance. Can't discount the course record holder and two time champ!

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1 hour ago, zed said:

Good to see not much love for Lange. Over on ST they've got him winning it at a canter... 

Yeah I'd hate him to do well given his history and 'gameplan' but can't discount him.. there's also a chance that all the uber biking at the front leads to some explosions...

48 minutes ago, dazmuzza said:

Think Lange might be playing some mental games by not really doing much this year - no one really knows what kind of form he is in, at least from what I read. 

Still think he's got a massive massive chance. Can't discount the course record holder and two time champ!

Unfortunately.. his form mid year has been shit the last two years so still a good bet to win

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1.  Wurf

2. Seb

3. Mcnamee

just gotta back my man in  

still need to look into the chicks 

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3 hours ago, Bored@work said:

Wurf

Sanders 

Frodeno 

AP 

Big call! Lot of love for Sanders on ST, but no-one has him in their top 5... would be cool if he could podium. Can't see him doing any better than 10th.

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7 hours ago, zed said:

Big call! Lot of love for Sanders on ST, but no-one has him in their top 5... would be cool if he could podium. Can't see him doing any better than 10th.

Not really a big call. I admire anyone who can beat addiction and mental health issues and keeps having a go. 

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I dont see how Sanders could be a contender given his long injury layoff this year. He'll bike well thats for sure, but his run will come up short.

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1 hour ago, Bored@work said:

Not really a big call. I admire anyone who can beat addiction and mental health issues and keeps having a go. 

I think he's a legend and a role model, doesn't mean he's going to make the podium. Are we doing top 3 of who we want to win or who we think will win. If it's want to win, then yeah Sander is no 1!

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12 hours ago, Peter said:

1.  Wurf

2. Seb

3. Mcnamee

just gotta back my man in  

still need to look into the chicks 

Just listened to an interview with Wurf.  He said he needs to prove he is a contender before he can win it.

hmm.

Picking the top 3 is probably as hard as winning lotto.

I doubt anyone willpick the top 3 men and women

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3 hours ago, Peter said:

Just listened to an interview with Wurf.  He said he needs to prove he is a contender before he can win it.

hmm.

Picking the top 3 is probably as hard as winning lotto.

I doubt anyone willpick the top 3 men and women

Yeah so many variables with the mens. There are probably 5, 6 guys that could win it. It comes down to wind, heat, how well the poorer swimmers (Sanders etc) swim, how hard the likes of Brownlee and Frodo bike, how well Wurf can run in the heat, how (and who with) Lange rides, are the TOs going to do their job.... Pretty exciting race!

Womens, is really all about fighting for 3rd place. 1 and 2 are a foregone conclusion

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I think Ryf is a lock for winning.  

Lucy not so much for second. 

Only lucy can lose second.  Someone else won't outrace her as such.

third is a lottery.

1. Ryf

2. Lucy

3. Sarah Crowley

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4 hours ago, zed said:

I think he's a legend and a role model, doesn't mean he's going to make the podium.

Isn't top 20 in Kona considered being on the podium.

I have a friend who was bragging how he podiumed the world champs. Looking at the results he was fourth in his age group, with only 20ppl in his age group.

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4 minutes ago, Bored@work said:

Isn't top 20 in Kona considered being on the podium.

Top 10 is considered the podium

Image result for top 10 men hawaii  awards ironman

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1 hour ago, Peter said:

Top 10 is considered the podium

Image result for top 10 men hawaii  awards ironman

Gee if that was the case in F1, Ricciardo would still be having a shit year.

 

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Triathlon taren Instagram video story is hilarious. 

He is on his bike on the queenk and is confused how the wind can be so strong and coming from all directions.  

Even cam wurf said it was blowing its balls Off. 

Bring on a windy race day. Note I’ve predicted the windiest race in a long time. 

Full moon I tell ya. 

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I think if Frodeno is 100% healthy he wins.

i think Brownlee will stick to Jan like a fly to shit, but will fade coming out of the energy lab, if not even earlier in the race.

i think that Wurf is a better swimmer, cyclist and Ironman marathoner than Sebi right now. And Sebi is in his best form ever.

i think Sanders is under cooked. Which is a good thing, but 2 months work from scratch isn’t enough.

Lange and McNamee will both run well under 2:45 so they’ll feature late in the race. Probably Bart as well.

terenzo and Currie will be strong all day long.

so ... drum roll ..,

IMO:

1. Frodo

2. Lange - sneaking in with a 2:35 marathon 

3. Wurf holding on with a sub 2:52 marathon after gapping Frodo by 5 minutes on the bike and Lange by 15 minutes on a windy day out.

 

women:

 

1. Ryf

2. Lucy C-B

3. Boilover - Rini with a 2:48 marathon.

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3 hours ago, Peter said:

Triathlon taren Instagram video story is hilarious. 

I'm quite enjoying his daily vids of Kona. Having never been there, great to get an idea of why the energylab is so feared. 

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If Lange podiums I will wear a Brittney Spears style schoolgirl outfit for the beer mile.

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4 minutes ago, zed said:

If Lange podiums I will wear a Brittney Spears style schoolgirl outfit for the beer mile.

Could someone over there trip Lange if he looks like getting anywhere near the top 10?

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15 minutes ago, zed said:

If Lange podiums I will wear a Brittney Spears style schoolgirl outfit for the beer mile.

You like wearing women’s clothes, you’ll wear it regardless 😂😂😂

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1 minute ago, KieranR said:

You like wearing women’s clothes, you’ll wear it regardless 😂😂😂

haha yeah well...

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I am loving the love for Wurf and agree... races his best 3 weeks after a previous Ironman, swim Ming and running better than ever and has been riding with Richie and co when looking for a decent ride hit out. And has decided no to conserve at any stage, but instead empty himself, which he has not done previously. Windy and hopefully no one towing Lange on the bike this time, and it’ll be the bikers that take it

1. Frodeno

2. Wurf

3. Kienle

 

1. Ryf

2. Lucy Charles

3. Sarah True

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Extra tip.  Some German will top 3.  Not the usual top 3.  There is always a new German around.  

Usa will continue to not win.  Probably the best part. 

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I don’t especially like Lange, but I don’t really understand the hate.

His sitting in at a draft legal distance is no different to Macca sitting in the train in 2006 & 2007 or Crowie sitting in at the 2007, 08, 09 and 2010 races. Or Allen sitting in for several of his wins.

Obviously, given the size of the bunch and the speeds they travel at there is a very significant - if legal - draft advantage sitting 3rd wheel at 12M gap in a bunch averaging 45kmh.

Don’t hate on the athletes that take advantage of that. Hate on WTC for not following the lead of Challenge and not making the draft zone 20 metres.

Edited by Andrew #1

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25 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

I don’t especially like Lange, but I don’t really understand the hate.

His sitting in at a draft legal distance is no different to Macca sitting in the train in 2006 & 2007 or Crowie sitting in at the 2007, 08, 09 and 2010 races. Or Allen sitting in for several of his wins.

Obviously, given the size of the bunch and the speeds they travel at there is a very significant - if legal - draft advantage sitting 3rd wheel at 12M gap in a bunch averaging 45kmh.

Don’t hate on the athletes that take advantage of that. Hate on WTC for not following the lead of Challenge and not making the draft zone 20 metres.

Wasn't the hate focused around the way he would surge & drop in on people. Or surge to stop people from overtaking him. Forcing them to waste more energy than what was required to pass him?

 

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37 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

I don’t especially like Lange, but I don’t really understand the hate.

His sitting in at a draft legal distance is no different to Macca sitting in the train in 2006 & 2007 or Crowie sitting in at the 2007, 08, 09 and 2010 races. Or Allen sitting in for several of his wins.

Obviously, given the size of the bunch and the speeds they travel at there is a very significant - if legal - draft advantage sitting 3rd wheel at 12M gap in a bunch averaging 45kmh.

Don’t hate on the athletes that take advantage of that. Hate on WTC for not following the lead of Challenge and not making the draft zone 20 metres.

I don't hate the guy, his victories do leave a sour taste in my mouth:

His 3rd place came after 2 drafting penalties, after receiving these, he continued to draft. You could argue that every other pro drafts, which isn't true. Some do, but not all. And of those that push the envelope, most have never been busted for drafting once in a race, let alone twice. Sure push that 12m, I get it's part of sport, pushing the boundaries, but you get pinged, then you be a good boy and do the right thing. 

So anyway he learned his lesson and got smart. He got himself a domestique for 2018 which is against the rules and both him and Dreitz should have been disqualified as per the rules. Pros complained on social media, but no-one put in an official complaint, so they weren't investigated.

And if you think Dreitz wasn't sandbagging, check the bike splits from 2018. 

 

Swim exit time:
PL - 7.25.37
AD - 7.25.42

T1:Exit
PL - 7.27.56
AD - 7.28.13

Bike 50Km:
PL - 8.38.45
AD - 8.38.43

Bike 80km:
PL - 9.22.46
AD - 9.22.37

Bike 111km:
PL 10.05.46
AD - 10.05.39

Bike finish
PL 11.43.46
AD - 11.43.41

T2 Exit:
Pl - 11.46.07
AD - 11.46.12

Edited by zed

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2 minutes ago, zed said:

I don't hate the guy, his victories do leave a sour taste in my mouth:

His 3rd place came after 2 drafting penalties, after receiving these, he continued to draft. You could argue that every other pro drafts, which isn't true. Some do, but not all. And of those that push the envelope, most have never been busted for drafting once in a race, let alone twice. Sure push that 12m, I get it's part of sport, pushing the boundaries, but you get pinged, then you be a good boy and do the right thing.

So anyway he learned his lesson and got smart. He got himself a domestique for 2018 which is against the rules and both him and Dreitz should have been disqualified as per the rules. Pros complained on social media, but no-one put in an official complaint, so they weren't investigated.

And if you think Dreitz wasn't sandbagging, check the bike splits from 2018:

 

Bike 50Km:
PL - 8.38.45
AD - 8.38.43

Bike 80km:
PL - 9.22.46
AD - 9.22.37

Bike 111km:
PL 10.05.46
AD - 10.05.39

Bike finish
PL 11.43.46
AD - 11.43.41

Agree with your comments but not sure what value those splits add to the argument? wasnt there a large pack with him so you could probably check splits of 12 people and they'd be crossing mats with similar gaps.

40kph is 11 metres a second so looks like he is outside 12 metres in all of these splits?

I am trying to find what dreitz past kona splits have been but cant get the site to work, 

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37 minutes ago, pieman said:

Agree with your comments but not sure what value those splits add to the argument? wasnt there a large pack with him so you could probably check splits of 12 people and they'd be crossing mats with similar gaps.

40kph is 11 metres a second so looks like he is outside 12 metres in all of these splits?

I am trying to find what dreitz past kona splits have been but cant get the site to work, 

Yeah there was a largish pack so I guess those splits don't really mean much. I don't think there was ever an issue with Lange and co drafting, more of a case that Dreitz did most of the work at the front, whilst everyone sat back and enjoyed the coffee ride. Not sure how hard it would have been to argue this:

An athlete may not subordinate his/her race ambitions solely for the benefit of another athletes race ambitions.

A few pros, made some comments about this on social media. Probably relatively easy to prove Dreitz was sandbagging, not so easy to prove it was with Lange.  There was a similar situation with Sanders and Kienle and Sanders offered to disqualify himself when it was brought up. 

Edited by zed

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47 minutes ago, pieman said:

 

I am trying to find what dreitz past kona splits have been but cant get the site to work, 

Well he finished 13th in Kona last year. This year he won Roth beating 2nd and 3rd place from Kona 2018, Aeronauts and Mcnamee.

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