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Peter

Ali Brownlee Kona predictions (name change)

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The itu races athletes are fine tuned. 

Go and watch the men’s from Japan a few weeks back. Skip the the last 3k of the run and watch from there. 

It was fantastic viewing  

 

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8 hours ago, BarryBevan said:

He jogged out to 35 as he has an IM in 2 weeks, lets not write him off just yet

Yep. When are the British team selection races scheduled? They will be the litmus test.

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16 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

Yep. When are the British team selection races scheduled? They will be the litmus test.

 

16 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

Yep. When are the British team selection races scheduled? They will be the litmus test.

Yokohama was one of them, then Tokyo test event is their second chance

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19 minutes ago, Trier said:

 

Yokohama was one of them, then Tokyo test event is their second chance

So, the Brownlees would have to be approaching peak form on the weekend of 15-18 August if they are serious about the Olympics next year. 10 weeks. Doable. 

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On 10/06/2019 at 8:17 PM, Andrew #1 said:

So, the Brownlees would have to be approaching peak form on the weekend of 15-18 August if they are serious about the Olympics next year. 10 weeks. Doable. 

Not necessarily, been trying to reach peak form for a couple of years now. They both thought they were in good form for this one. As they have shown time and again, the body can only work so hard before it breaks. 

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21 hours ago, Trier said:

Not necessarily, been trying to reach peak form for a couple of years now. They both thought they were in good form for this one. As they have shown time and again, the body can only work so hard before it breaks. 

I didn’t say, “yep, lock it in Eddie”. Only “doable”. 10 weeks prep is all that guys with a base a mile deep need to go from ordinary to peak. In fact any longer than about 14 weeks specific prep and they’d likely go backwards. 

Edited by Andrew #1

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On 10/06/2019 at 9:35 AM, pieman said:

44th place at ITU in Leeds so surely he and JB (35th) are on the way out of short course now...

Jake B with the win... 

 

Okay so I just watched this race.  

Ali was off the front with one other for 30kms. Working hard. He blew himself up so badly attempting to break away. 

I wouldn’t read anything into his 44th just yet. 

Johnny however worries me. He sat on and didn’t put his nose into the wind after 5k into the bike. 

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Unfortunately I’m out after fracturing my 4th metatarsal. Bummer but looking forward to watching the coverage!

Heading to Cannes and Andorra instead, could be worse!

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4 minutes ago, lachie94 said:

Unfortunately I’m out after fracturing my 4th metatarsal. Bummer but looking forward to watching the coverage!

Heading to Cannes and Andorra instead, could be worse!

Bummer! How did you manage that injury?

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Starts Sunday 4pm Aussie time.  I wonder how good the coverage will be. 

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4 hours ago, Crowies crushed nuts said:

Swim has been shortened due to cold water. 

Remember when Ironman was hard? Anyone?

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4 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

It’s 13 degrees

It's bloody Cork. What temperature did they expect?

 

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4 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

It’s 13 degrees

Meh. One of my swimming buddies swam from Scotland to Ireland last year in 12 degree water.

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27 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

Meh. One of my swimming buddies swam from Scotland to Ireland last year in 12 degree water.

Mine too. In speedos. Got one doing the North Channel again this year as well.

Edited by Ex-Hasbeen

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8 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Mine too. In speedos. Got one doing the North Channel again this year as well.

He did end up in hospital for 2 days though and can’t remember the last 5km. Or finishing. Or being taken to hospital ...

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1 hour ago, Andrew #1 said:

Remember when Ironman was hard? Anyone?

Was it 1985 at forster lots oulled out due to the cold water, softer in the day

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9 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Was it 1985 at forster lots oulled out due to the cold water, softer in the day

There was also another year at Froster than this happened.  Maybe 2004??

But most were Queenslanders and West Aussies.  All the NSW and Vic/tas were fine.

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36 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Was it 1985 at forster lots oulled out due to the cold water, softer in the day

Yeah. Nah. Missed the point, sport. Tinley and Allen pulled out due to the cold. So what. The organisers of the sport didn’t have a massive bed wetting catharsis and then change the nature of the sport in the kind of massive over reaction that happens these days. Tinley and Allen, and everybody else back in 1985 onwards, simply learnt how to swim with wetsuits.

god only knows why WTC though it a good idea in the first place to host an Ironman on the coast of the Irish Sea, but having done so, it should have been encumbent on athletes to condition themselves for an 50 to 90 minutes of cold water swimming with a 5MM sleeved wetsuit and neoprene cap (plus booties, if necessary): it CAN be done, quite easily, even for folk with less than 10% body fat. 

Edited by Andrew #1

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27 minutes ago, Peter said:

There was also another year at Froster than this happened.  Maybe 2004??

But most were Queenslanders and West Aussies.  All the NSW and Vic/tas were fine.

I think you got it around the wrong way: in 2001 Tim DeBoom ‘passed out’ due to heat exhaustion in the swim: which was quite odd given that the water temperature was only 22-23 degrees.

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Do you think it is safe to swim in 13 degree water. I would get hypothermia, as would a lot of skinny tri types. That is even with a 5 mm wet suit.

If the event was in summery spot but had cold water like New hampshire I could get away with 15 degrees, but just.

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9 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Do you think it is safe to swim in 13 degree water. I would get hypothermia, as would a lot of skinny tri types. That is even with a 5 mm wet suit.

If the event was in summery spot but had cold water like New hampshire I could get away with 15 degrees, but just.

I couldn't do it.

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10 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Do you think it is safe to swim in 13 degree water. I would get hypothermia, as would a lot of skinny tri types. That is even with a 5 mm wet suit.

If the event was in summery spot but had cold water like New hampshire I could get away with 15 degrees, but just.

First of all, I wouldn’t have sanctioned or organised the event in the first place, given the range of sea temperatures in the Irish Sea in June. However, if the race was set, then caveat emptor: athletes who enter should prepare accordingly.   

Edited to add: there are quite a number of simple and effective techniques to condition oneself for cold water swimming. For a race like this one, training for THAT should have been treated like ‘the fourth leg’. Again, I am surprised that WTC sanctioned this race, given how they have done everything possible to make M-dot vanilla and ‘achieveable’ for bucket listers.

Edited by Andrew #1

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2 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

Remember when Ironman was hard? Anyone?

Yeah last Sept actually and the one before that:lol:  I wonder what the tipping point is though? IM Wales is usually 15C and you see a few pulled from that with cold issues.

Edited by FatPom

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21 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Do you think it is safe to swim in 13 degree water. I would get hypothermia, as would a lot of skinny tri types. That is even with a 5 mm wet suit.

If the event was in summery spot but had cold water like New hampshire I could get away with 15 degrees, but just.

IMNZ 2004 the water was 14c.  Took me 400 mtrs before i could keep my head in the water. 

But I survived the swim doing my slowest time ever at 10 IRONMANS.  1:26.  

 

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2 minutes ago, Peter said:

IMNZ 2004 the water was 14c.  Took me 400 mtrs before i could keep my head in the water. 

But I survived the swim doing my slowest time ever at 10 IRONMANS.  1:26.  

 

Thought you wold have swum faster just to get out. Despite the issues with cold, have found my fastest swims are in colder temps. New Hampshire when the thing had been iced over not that many months before

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7 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

how do you prepare as below 10 % fat body other than larding up

With a couple months of swimming in cold water & a wetsuit. That is enough protection to safeguard against hypothermia for a normal person. Swimming sites recommend a 5/4/3 wetsuit (that's mm thicknesses for various parts of the suit) for temperatures down to 11 degrees. You still get the initial cold shock, but you shouldn't get hypothermia in a 1hr swim. By all means shorten the AG race, but the pro's should be racing an IM distance.

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As Andrew said, why the hell did they even bother sanctioning this race. The average sea temperature for Cork in June is 13.5. The same site that lists this states today's temperature is 13.9, so it's actually warmer than average, but still too cold to race.

image.png.eb320ee1b880262a3dce4aeee5423f50.png

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39 minutes ago, Crowies crushed nuts said:

Swim cancelled completely now. 

Cancelled swim is the biggest threat to the sport. I had about 3 cancelled on me last year. 

Disappointing.  

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32 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

As Andrew said, why the hell did they even bother sanctioning this race. The average sea temperature for Cork in June is 13.5. The same site that lists this states today's temperature is 13.9, so it's actually warmer than average, but still too cold to race.

image.png.eb320ee1b880262a3dce4aeee5423f50.png

 

Reasonably odd scheduling, hey.

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2 hours ago, Peter said:

There was also another year at Froster than this happened.  Maybe 2004??

But most were Queenslanders and West Aussies.  All the NSW and Vic/tas were fine.

1999. The first time they tried a May race. Had heaps of rain over Easter and the freshwater run off into the keys made it 16 degrees on race day.

was also the year the potholes were horrendous. 

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When I raced Alcatraz I think the water temp was 12 degrees. I just had a long sleeved wetsuit, booties and a good swim cap. Jumping in took my breath away but I had no trouble at all. 

They should have swam IMO. 

NSF

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4 minutes ago, Notsofast said:

When I raced Alcatraz I think the water temp was 12 degrees. I just had a long sleeved wetsuit, booties and a good swim cap. Jumping in took my breath away but I had no trouble at all. 

They should have swam IMO. 

NSF

Agree.  It was colder last week at Celtman (10c I think) and they still managed to get around

https://www.tri247.com/triathlon-news/age-group/becky-hoare-celtman-winner-2019

 

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39 minutes ago, roxii said:

1999. The first time they tried a May race. Had heaps of rain over Easter and the freshwater run off into the keys made it 16 degrees on race day.

was also the year the potholes were horrendous. 

was also the year the potholes were horrendous. 

And the next 6 years.  Remember when Chris cook rode into one of them and he hasn’t been seen since. 

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1 hour ago, roxii said:

1999. The first time they tried a May race. Had heaps of rain over Easter and the freshwater run off into the keys made it 16 degrees on race day.

was also the year the potholes were horrendous. 

yep, it was harder for us Qlders coming into that race. 

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3 hours ago, roxii said:

1999. The first time they tried a May race. Had heaps of rain over Easter and the freshwater run off into the keys made it 16 degrees on race day.

was also the year the potholes were horrendous. 

Yeah but at Forster you were only cold from the knees down. :lol:

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5 hours ago, FatPom said:

Yeah last Sept actually and the one before that:lol:  I wonder what the tipping point is though? IM Wales is usually 15C and you see a few pulled from that with cold issues.

was the swim cancelled due to the temp or 'rough conditions'. I thought I heard rough conditions even though it doesn't look that bad. 

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They are still doing the swim in cork.  

its just happening during the bike leg. 

Fark that’s wet.  Poor bastards. 

 

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5 hours ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

As Andrew said, why the hell did they even bother sanctioning this race. The average sea temperature for Cork in June is 13.5. The same site that lists this states today's temperature is 13.9, so it's actually warmer than average, but still too cold to race.

image.png.eb320ee1b880262a3dce4aeee5423f50.png

The cancellation is unlikely due to the water temp alone. Determination re wetsuits etc also takes the ambient temperature into account - it looks pretty miserable in Cork today with colder than normal outdoor temps...

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Brownlee nearly 17min down at T2. Looks much better than the leader, but it is only the first couple of km.

Edited by Ex-Hasbeen

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3 minutes ago, Notsofast said:

He is running 3:30 pace. Leader was running 4:00

Might be interesting

 

Sub 2:30 pace. Yes, interesting.

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4 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Sub 2:30 pace. Yes, interesting.

If anyone was going to run 2.35 in Ironman I'd put my money on him to do it 

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