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Ali Brownlee Kona predictions 2019

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Watched him running along Ali’i drive yesterday. He wanted everyone to see him.  I must say, looked great. Fit but not too thin. Bugger me he was sweating though......

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2 minutes ago, Bosco said:

Watched him running along Ali’i drive yesterday. He wanted everyone to see him.  I must say, looked great. Fit but not too thin. Bugger me he was sweating though......

Efficient cooling system, he's primed

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Technically if brownlee wins kona he will join a select club to win Kona with their first attempt at an ironman. 

Cork wasn’t an Ironman.  No swim.  

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23 hours ago, AA7 said:

Efficient cooling system, he's primed

Brownlee or Sanders?

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10 minutes ago, Peter said:

Technically if brownlee wins kona he will join a select club to win Kona with their first attempt at an ironman. 

Cork wasn’t an Ironman.  No swim.  

wins? he would be lucky to finish. too light. 

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4 minutes ago, Prince said:

wins? he would be lucky to finish. too light. 

"doesn't run well in the heat"

 

  • Haha 1

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On 08/10/2019 at 5:16 PM, Prince said:

wins? he would be lucky to finish. too light. 

I think he's actually far heavier than Lange - who I think is low 60 kg. Brownlee is like 70 kg.

 

 

Edited by dazmuzza

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14 minutes ago, dazmuzza said:

I think he's actually far heavier than Lange - who I think is low 60 kg. Brownlee is like 70 kg.

 

 

Watch the two videos with Ali and Jan and he is tiny compared to Jan. 

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1 hour ago, Peter said:

Watch the two videos with Ali and Jan and he is tiny compared to Jan. 

I hear most males are tiny compared to Jan 😂

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50 minutes ago, dazmuzza said:

As in build wise?

Isn't Jan like 10cms taller? Google tells me Brownlee is usually around 70kg and Jan around 75kg. 

Ali has no definition on his arms compared to jan and seb and certainly sanders.  

Gotta admit, im pumped to watch and never not wanted to do a race more. 

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On 24/06/2019 at 9:14 AM, Peter said:

  Zero chance of winning Kona in 2019.  You can quote me on that.

 

 

On 26/06/2019 at 10:22 AM, Nick777 said:

Top 3 or DNF. He won't plod in & finish 9th or so.

Oh nick 

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I hate it when Peter's right. Welcome to Kona Alistair...

Edited by zed

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16 minutes ago, zed said:

I hate it when Peter's right. Welcome to Kona Alistair...

He needs to wear a truckers hat on the run. Even if he hates it.

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1 minute ago, Andrew #1 said:

He needs to wear a truckers hat on the run. Even if he hates it.

Yeah that was odd he chose not to do that. Got a real schooling. I wonder what happened. He seemed to be sitting pretty on the bike and then....

Did he overcook it with his flat and then trying to get back to the front? How long was he out for?

 

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On 28/08/2019 at 7:09 PM, Nath. said:

My tip...

🏊‍♂️...💪

🚴‍♂️....👍

🏃‍♂️..:blowup:

Knew he would blow up

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2 hours ago, Nick777 said:

Yeah full credit to him for finishing. Didn't think he would.

You are usually so right.  Nice to catch you out for once. 

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1 hour ago, Andrew #1 said:

He needs to wear a truckers hat on the run. Even if he hates it.

Lucy Charles got 2nd with no hat!

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32 minutes ago, IronmanFoz said:

Lucy Charles got 2nd with no hat!

The missing ingredient!

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1 hour ago, Peter said:

You are usually so right.  Nice to catch you out for once. 

Ha..

Actually, it was interesting to really watch him running. He is a monster talent, and I would think that he, Jan & Wurf probably have the biggest engines in the sport. But it's almost like he's succeeded despite himself, because the way his feet hit the ground make me think that when he bumps up the volume to what's needed at IM, he's probably right on the edge of injury at any given time.

I don't know if he is going to be able to put really extended periods of big miles together to be a factor in at Hawaii. 

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21 minutes ago, Nick777 said:

Ha..

Actually, it was interesting to really watch him running. He is a monster talent, and I would think that he, Jan & Wurf probably have the biggest engines in the sport. But it's almost like he's succeeded despite himself, because the way his feet hit the ground make me think that when he bumps up the volume to what's needed at IM, he's probably right on the edge of injury at any given time.

I don't know if he is going to be able to put really extended periods of big miles together to be a factor in at Hawaii. 

watching him run for many years - my observation is that he leaks energy - not marathon efficient physiologically or bio-mechanically - even though he can run very fast over 10k - I cant see him ever riding 4.15 or less at kona and running 2.40 low. 

Edited by Coach@triathlon
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4 hours ago, zed said:

I hate it when Peter's right. Welcome to Kona Alistair...

 

Can't handle the heat...😃

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3 hours ago, Peter said:

You are usually so right.  Nice to catch you out for once. 

For once,,,,when it comes to the ironman world champs, and I know you're in the same category as allen, scott, tinley etc as a world champ finisher so have a headstart for happiness, but i think you should change your name from "peter" to "kona whisperer".  From tipping macca years ago to win when almost nobody else did after his repeated failure physically and mentally, to this.... you are the kona whisperer.

Edited by Oompa Loompa

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2 hours ago, Coach@triathlon said:

watching him run for many years - my observation is that he leaks energy - not marathon efficient physiologically or bio-mechanically - even though he can run very fast over 10k - I cant see him ever riding 4.15 or less at kona and running 2.40 low. 

How does one explain duck feet Dave Scott then? I’ve got a feeling that AB will end up winning in Kona multiple times before he’s through. Champions find a way. 

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Dave was efficient, not pretty. As soon as I saw AB prance through T2 on his toes I knew he wouldn't be holding it by the time he got to Palani climb. If he wants to do well at Kona he has to get his shuffle on and forget about air-time.

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9 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

How does one explain duck feet Dave Scott then? I’ve got a feeling that AB will end up winning in Kona multiple times before he’s through. Champions find a way. 

thats what they said about Gomez....

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15 hours ago, Coach@triathlon said:

watching him run for many years - my observation is that he leaks energy - not marathon efficient physiologically or bio-mechanically - even though he can run very fast over 10k - I cant see him ever riding 4.15 or less at kona and running 2.40 

 

 

8 hours ago, The Customer said:

Dave was efficient, not pretty. As soon as I saw AB prance through T2 on his toes I knew he wouldn't be holding it by the time he got to Palani climb. If he wants to do well at Kona he has to get his shuffle on and forget about air-time.

Dave was economical not efficient.  

Edited by Fitness Buddy

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8 hours ago, Prince said:

thats what they said about Gomez....

Gomez is not out of it: either for further Olympic glory or success in Hawaii.

i back him to finish at least top 3 in Kona before he’s done. Probably win it.

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3 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

Gomez is not out of it: either for further Olympic glory or success in Hawaii.

i back him to finish at least top 3 in Kona before he’s done. Probably win it.

he has as much chance of winning it as PJ does getting his second.....

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2 minutes ago, Prince said:

he has as much chance of winning it as PJ does getting his second.....

I agree. Gomez will never podium at Kona. I think AB will. Will be interesting to see what he has to say about his race. 8.25 isn't too shabby and would have got him top 10 in previous years (not including 2018). 

From the effort on his face, very early on in the bike, he looked like he was already pushing too hard. The camera pans to Frodo and he looks like he's riding his pushie to the servo. How much did the early push by AB on the bike hurt him, the slow flat plus time taken to catch back up? I still think he would have struggled to crack the top 10 even without the flat and with a more conservative ride. 

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1 hour ago, zed said:

Gomez will never podium at Kona

Wow!

The dude went sub 8 in his first ironman- cairns: which is an honest course.

His 11th in Kona last year was about 6 minutes off 6th ...

This year he successfully transitioned down to ITU racing and is a likely lock on the 3rd slot on the Spanish team for next year’s Olympics. He also won the ITU long course title and backed up after the ITU grandfinal for a top 6 finish at the nice 70.3 world champs (with the same run split as Brownlee as well).

so sure, he has no chance of podiuming in Kona. Ever. ... Even though the top 4 from yesterday will all likely be retired or past their best in 2 years time, when I reckon Gomez will have his best chance ...

😂😂😂

 

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2 minutes ago, Peter said:

I think Gomez can go top 5 in the future. 

 

I’ll eat my hat if he doesn’t go top 3, assuming he sticks around in the sport and gives it another crack between 2021 and 2024.

Edited by Andrew #1

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It wasn't a great debut from Brownlee. But I recall Chris McCormack took more than a few goes to get it right. 2002 DNF, 2003 59th, 2004 DNF, 2005 6th, 2006 2nd, 2007 1st. Frodeno is 38 and will be off the scene by the time Alistair gets the formula right, assuming he really wants it. 

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9 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

Frodeno says AB had slow leak from 25 k in

He also sucked everybody’s wheel until he could get a change, which was itself pretty quick (he must have gotten the motorbike riders to radio ahead). I doubt he was more than 30-45 seconds on the side of the road. ...

So what. He wasn’t going to win or place top 10 yesterday.
 

That’s not to say he won’t in the future. In fact I still back him to win Kona sometime in the next 5 years. If he needs to work on a more efficient long distance running style, he’ll do that. He’s a champion and very professional. Isn’t also not mad like Lionel. He’ll find a way.

Edited by Andrew #1

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20 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

He also sucked everybody’s wheel until he could get a change, which was itself pretty quick (he must have gotten the motorbike riders to radio ahead). I doubt he was more than 30-45 seconds on the side of the road. ...

So what. He wasn’t going to win or place top 10 yesterday.
 

That’s not to say he won’t in the future. In fact I still back him to win Kona sometime in the next 5 years. If he needs to work on a more efficient long distance running style, he’ll do that. He’s a champion and very professional. Isn’t also not mad like Lionel. He’ll find a way.

why did the TO who sits and watches them the whole way not bust him?

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2 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

Wow!

The dude went sub 8 in his first ironman- cairns: which is an honest course.

His 11th in Kona last year was about 6 minutes off 6th ...

This year he successfully transitioned down to ITU racing and is a likely lock on the 3rd slot on the Spanish team for next year’s Olympics. He also won the ITU long course title and backed up after the ITU grandfinal for a top 6 finish at the nice 70.3 world champs (with the same run split as Brownlee as well).

so sure, he has no chance of podiuming in Kona. Ever. ... Even though the top 4 from yesterday will all likely be retired or past their best in 2 years time, when I reckon Gomez will have his best chance ...

😂😂😂

 

I also said Brownlee would win Kona in 2019, so....

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4 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

why did the TO who sits and watches them the whole way not bust him?

The video showed they all were too close except for jan.  

But brown Lee was shocking. 

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2 hours ago, Peter said:

The video showed they all were too close except for jan.  

But brown Lee was shocking. 

A proven cheat...... according to the footage. Or should that be a constant cheat.

Edited by IronmanFoz

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7 hours ago, IronmanFoz said:

 

A proven cheat...... according to the footage. Or should that be a constant cheat.

I’ve seen him draft a lot in itu. ;) 

  • Haha 2

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16 hours ago, Peter said:

I’ve seen him draft a lot in itu. ;) 

That’s what I meant there’s footage everywhere.

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On 14/10/2019 at 10:17 PM, IronmanFoz said:

 

A proven cheat...... according to the footage. Or should that be a constant cheat.

Not sure, let’s get old mate the lawyer in on his moral high horse to explain.

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I am calling Ali to win this race eventually, Macca didnt crack it for several years, he will work it out and get it done. He is only 31 years old, he is just hitting his endurance peak, he has just be around so long its easy to think he is Gomez and Frodo's age.

Edited by Gilliga
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