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Ali Brownlee Kona predictions 2019

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Both A Brownlee and Sebi had great Kona sessions. Sebi - get to the pool mate, you Lionel, Wurf, Starky,Frodo,AB, + others will isolate the pure runners. AB is a massive spanner in this race - win, lose or DNF. 

In saying all that, I’m racing so no wind please.................

 

 

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1 hour ago, zed said:

Patrick Lange will be lucky if he makes the top 10 this year... no Dreitz = no domestique plus with Frodo and AB there, race dynamics will be very different. I'd imagine they'd ride with Wurf? The three of them hitting T2 together and then a 2 horse race between Frodo and AB.

Based on the weekend if AB rides with wurf he'll be walking won't he..?

Edited by pieman

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39 minutes ago, pieman said:

Based on the weekend if AB rides with wurf he'll be walking won't he..?

Wurf isn't that much quicker. Aeronauts was 3 mins off Wurf Kona 18 and Aeronauts was 3mins off Brownlee yesterday. I'd be surprised if AB wasn't able to hang onto Wurf's tail. 

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17 minutes ago, zed said:

Wurf isn't that much quicker. Aeronauts was 3 mins off Wurf Kona 18 and Aeronauts was 3mins off Brownlee yesterday. I'd be surprised if AB wasn't able to hang onto Wurf's tail. 

Wurf sat up on way back to town last year, Ryf wasn’t much slower than him.

if he wants to dish it out Ali couldn’t go with him.

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Leaner than usual possibly but not sure about too lean?  He's probably higher bf% than Jan and Lange but looks lean as he's got muscles unlike them..

He's still pushing decent power by the sound of it although he uses the stages PM so might be 15% lower than he thinks..

Edited by pieman

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I saw some footage of Brownlee training bloody hard in Arizona in the heat.

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I think Ali will mark Frodo all day and back himself make a move 3 km to go if still there. I am not certain he can hang with frodo deep into the race but Ali is a racer he will be putting himself in the mix till he is destroyed. Im so excited for this race! Actually interested to see if Frodo goes with Wurf when that move happens I thibj he is good enough to, but he doesn’t need to do that to beat Wurf.

 

hope its extreme winds and heat after last years conditions to make the race more interesting (sorry age group racers).

Edited by Gilliga

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The trouble with the pros is the train might be 30 guys long.  

If frodo is wheel 3 and ali wheel 15 he cant really mark him. 

And if he wants to move up he needs to bust a gut and go all the way to the front. 

I like your theory however. 

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18 hours ago, Prince said:


Lionel is looking a bit too lean i am thinking....70446697_2376851505862675_64200088808849408_n.thumb.jpg.c1f4ad4605e9f68f2c8d76a213ce31a9.jpg

Last time Frodeno looked like this he did not finish.

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On 20/09/2019 at 4:52 PM, Cat Lady said:

Someone get that man a voucher for the local waxing salon 

someone get that man a feed...

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It will be very interesting to watch with AB, For sure it won't be dull. Figure AB is going to form a fast first swim pack, which will leave the usual suspects having to chase. 

This could be to their advantage, not sure where Wurf ends up in the swim, the Port Mac swims were a bit fast with current help, so if Wurf, Keinle and Sanders are together and work together they could bridge by 90 and then do some damage.

Assuming AB is not already doing that in the first pack, but with his recent experience he may race a more measured race

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43 minutes ago, Lost in transition said:

Last year when Brownlee raced the Half WC. He said once you get 3 or 4 in the line, your not really pedalling anymore.

Interesting seeing Gomez's data for South Africa, averaged around 270w, compared to Lionel Sanders who pushes 350w for a 70.3 and 313w for Kona. Shows when these guys don't ride legal, how much easier it is for them. Would 270w be a moderate training ride for Gomez? I would love to see Lange's bike data for 2017 and 2018, but I'm guessing that was deleted long ago!

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40 minutes ago, zed said:

Interesting seeing Gomez's data for South Africa, averaged around 270w, compared to Lionel Sanders who pushes 350w for a 70.3 and 313w for Kona. Shows when these guys don't ride legal, how much easier it is for them. Would 270w be a moderate training ride for Gomez? I would love to see Lange's bike data for 2017 and 2018, but I'm guessing that was deleted long ago!

Poorl old Pat Lange getting hammered

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On ‎21‎/‎09‎/‎2019 at 5:57 PM, Lost in transition said:

Last year when Brownlee raced the Half WC. He said once you get 3 or 4 in the line, your not really pedalling anymore.

So, he is admitting to drafting then.

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20 minutes ago, IronmanFoz said:

So, he is admitting to drafting then.

Legal drafting at least. His point is that there is a significant aerodynamic advantage sitting at a legal 12 metres when travelling at 45kmh. IMO is still some advantage at 20 metres if you are travelling at 45kmh. The ICU has set a 25M draft zone because of the advantage when travelling at over 50kmh whilst is what professional cyclists are capable of in an ITT. 

I really do think there should be a 20 metre draft zone for the professional race. Ideally also for the Age Groupers as well. I’m not sure how practical it would be enforcing that in the AG race, but Challenge has proven that it’s doable for its pro races, and  IMO the WTC should follow suit.

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4 hours ago, IronmanFoz said:

So, he is admitting to drafting then.

No, him and Frodo were up at the front for SA 70.3 and both complained about Gomez and go when interviewed post race. I think that was when Brownlee made the "not really pedalling" comment. Gomez's power file on Strava for the race more or less showed this. Although low for a pro, I still wouldn't call 260w "not really pedalling"...

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2 hours ago, zed said:

Although low for a pro, I still wouldn't call 260w "not really pedalling"...

Riding solo you’d expect him to have to put in about 300w (taking into account his relatively small size and drag coefficient when compared to Lionel) to maintain those speeds. So, assuming he was 12 metres back, that means we was getting about a 10-12% assistance from the legal draft. Obviously not the same as the 30-40% advantage from riding in an actual peloton, but significant all the same. Rather than criticise Gomez for racing to the rules, use this kind of data to lobby to change the rules. Surely.

Edited by Andrew #1

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On 20/09/2019 at 10:36 PM, Gilliga said:

I think Ali will mark Frodo all day and back himself make a move 3 km to go if still there. I am not certain he can hang with frodo deep into the race but Ali is a racer he will be putting himself in the mix till he is destroyed. Im so excited for this race! Actually interested to see if Frodo goes with Wurf when that move happens I thibj he is good enough to, but he doesn’t need to do that to beat Wurf.

 

hope its extreme winds and heat after last years conditions to make the race more interesting (sorry age group racers).

Good theory but Ali is a racer and not sure if he will be able to help himself.

On Frodo going with Wurf.....he tried that 2yrs ago and his back seized up from being pushed on the bike.

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There's a lot of talk about Wurf, but there isn't a huge difference in ability between him and the other top pro bikers . 1.20s between him and Sanders in 2017, Wurf averaged 42.6km/hr, Sanders 42.2km/hr. Similarly with Wurf and Michael Weiss and Andrew Starykowicz in 2018. So it's not like Wurf is going to be going past Frodo and Brownlee like they're gumby age groupers. Maybe 0.5km/hr, possibly 1.0km/hr which is nothing and would easily be negated if they jump on his tail, even legally. Perhaps if the difference was comparable to Ryf and Charles (12 min discrepancy) then you could argue they may be making a tactical error by going with him, but yeah, difference is negligible. 

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Ali is competitive, but he's not a fool. If Frodo (or whoever) goes, he may go with him, but if the pace is too much he'll hold back. When Iden went, Brownlee maintained his pace and let him go. There was no chase.  This isn't his first rodeo. 

Edited by zed

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12 hours ago, zed said:

There's a lot of talk about Wurf, but there isn't a huge difference in ability between him and the other top pro bikers . 1.20s between him and Sanders in 2017, Wurf averaged 42.6km/hr, Sanders 42.2km/hr. Similarly with Wurf and Michael Weiss and Andrew Starykowicz in 2018. So it's not like Wurf is going to be going past Frodo and Brownlee like they're gumby age groupers. Maybe 0.5km/hr, possibly 1.0km/hr which is nothing and would easily be negated if they jump on his tail, even legally. Perhaps if the difference was comparable to Ryf and Charles (12 min discrepancy) then you could argue they may be making a tactical error by going with him, but yeah, difference is negligible. 

I reckon with someone who rides like Wurf, he isn't going to cruise past others so they can increase output and hang on...... He is going to hit each pass at speed so that the others have no hope of hanging on and there only response is.... WTF

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8 hours ago, IronmanFoz said:

I reckon with someone who rides like Wurf, he isn't going to cruise past others so they can increase output and hang on...... He is going to hit each pass at speed so that the others have no hope of hanging on and there only response is.... WTF

He seems like the sort of dude to do that just to amuse himself too. Just burn past someone at 50kmh with a gentle pat on the butt and a comment about a rubbing brake caliper.

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9 hours ago, IronmanFoz said:

I reckon with someone who rides like Wurf, he isn't going to cruise past others so they can increase output and hang on...... He is going to hit each pass at speed so that the others have no hope of hanging on and there only response is.... WTF

ha ha yeah I reckon.

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9 hours ago, IronmanFoz said:

I reckon with someone who rides like Wurf, he isn't going to cruise past others so they can increase output and hang on...... He is going to hit each pass at speed so that the others have no hope of hanging on and there only response is.... WTF

WTF = Wurf Too Fast. 

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A full moon for the race this year suggests it will be Windy AF.

Lets hope so.  Lange has no hope of a 3 peet if it's windy.

 

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23 minutes ago, Peter said:

A full moon for the race this year suggests it will be Windy AF.

Lets hope so.  Lange has no hope of a 3 peet if it's windy.

 

Is there much headwind/tailwind in Kona or mostly crosswind?

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I’m racing... so guaranteed it’ll be the choppiest, windiest (all headwind out and back), hottest, humidest (is that even a word?) race ever. 😱

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59 minutes ago, zed said:

Is there much headwind/tailwind in Kona or mostly crosswind?

All directions. 

But history shows its alway windy on a full moon. 

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1 hour ago, iFoz said:

 humidest (is that even a word?)

It is now!

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1 hour ago, Peter said:

All directions. 

But history shows its alway windy on a full moon. 

Isn't that why they schedule it for the full moon?

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9 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Isn't that why they schedule it for the full moon?

I thought it was usually scheduled on a full moon for light. 

But race day hasn’t been on a full moon in years.  

2011 when I did it, it was dark af.  It made sleeping in the energy lab super easy. 

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9 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Isn't that why they schedule it for the full moon?

I thought it was to assist with lighting the way on the QueenK at night for those finishing after dark, as ‘back in the day’ there was no street lighting for much of that portion of the course ...

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6 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

I thought it was to assist with lighting the way on the QueenK at night for those finishing after dark, as ‘back in the day’ there was no street lighting for much of that portion of the course ...

11 hour cut-off would solve that issue. It is a WC after-all.

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3 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

11 hour cut-off would solve that issue. It is a WC after-all.

Can I interest you in a bridge with harbour views? Very reasonably priced

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3 hours ago, Peter said:

A full moon for the race this year suggests it will be Windy AF.

When I checked, it says the full moon is on the Sunday at 11:07am.  But the race is on Saturday.

Do the days surrounding the full moon have similar effect?

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5 minutes ago, Rob said:

When I checked, it says the full moon is on the Sunday at 11:07am.  But the race is on Saturday.

Do the days surrounding the full moon have similar effect?

He forgot to use sarcastic text. The moon has SFA affect on the wind, just the tides.

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A colleague of mine did Kona a few years back, and he said that the cross winds were so strong, there were extended periods where he couldn't even take a hand off the handlebars to drink. This is the sort of day we need..

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1 hour ago, Nick777 said:

A colleague of mine did Kona a few years back, and he said that the cross winds were so strong, there were extended periods where he couldn't even take a hand off the handlebars to drink. This is the sort of day we need..

This is fairly stranded on the way out on the bike. With a head wind on the way home. Down on your aero’s doing 17kmph shock the crap out of me.

Also  the formula for Kona race date is........the first full moon weekend in October. Has been like this since the 80’s.

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7 hours ago, IronmanFoz said:

 

Also  the formula for Kona race date is........the first full moon weekend in October. Has been like this since the 80’s.

Not true. It was but hasn’t been for years. 

 

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16 hours ago, Peter said:

Not true. It was but hasn’t been for years. 

 

True....... I should have said ‘traditionally’......ie: back in the day!!!!!

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On 25/09/2019 at 9:32 PM, Nick777 said:

A colleague of mine did Kona a few years back, and he said that the cross winds were so strong, there were extended periods where he couldn't even take a hand off the handlebars to drink. This is the sort of day we need..

I reckon if this happens they'll probably cancell the bike or shorten it nowadays. 

But it would smash Lange which would make me happy :) not that I think he can win this year, surely the other guys are smart enough to beat him. 

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9 hours ago, IronmanFoz said:

True....... I should have said ‘traditionally’......ie: back in the day!!!!!

Back when it was harder.  Haha 

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