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Ali Brownlee Kona predictions 2019

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7 minutes ago, Peter said:

Okay so let’s pretend he starts this year. 

Are you saying he will win it, just not this year?

 

Assuming he can stay injury free and he sticks with IM for a few years he will win Kona at some point. He's not like Sanders who has a number of weaknesses he has to work on. AB will be the quickest guy on the 2019 Kona start line. I think for him it's race strategy and execution. Mark Allen couldn't win Kona for years because he hadn't taken care of those, despite being, arguably, the quickest guy on the start line. 

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20 minutes ago, Peter said:

Okay so let’s pretend he starts this year. 

Are you saying he will win it, just not this year?

 

He could win, but I doubt that he will this year, even if that is actually his No.1 motivation in the sport at the moment, which I don’t think it is: I reckon a 3rd Olympic Gold is his still No.1 motivation. 

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33rd in Kona this year

olympic gold next year.

top 10 Kona 2020

win in Kona 2021

UK sporting God forever after.

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1 hour ago, Andrew #1 said:

He could win, but I doubt that he will this year, even if that is actually his No.1 motivation in the sport at the moment, which I don’t think it is: I reckon a 3rd Olympic Gold is his still No.1 motivation. 

Are you going to get off the fence and make a call?  Its for fun  Not money. It won’t matter if you are wrong. 

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3 minutes ago, Peter said:

Are you going to get off the fence and make a call?  Its for fun  Not money. It won’t matter if you are wrong. 

Nope. Happy to sit on the fence for now. but will likely have something more to say by way of a prediction closer to race day.

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I wouldn’t bet against him, the guys a tough as hell legend. I hope he kills it and sets a new standard for head to head battles. Can’t wait

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11 minutes ago, Bored@work said:

Is PJ racing this year? 

He will make his decision once andrew does. 

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1 hour ago, Bored@work said:

Is PJ racing this year? 

Does anyone actually care anymore? 

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Hard to see anyone beating Frodo this year. A 70.3, I'd put my money on Brownlee, but Frodo has that Kona experience. 

Top 4 will be:

Frodo

AB

Kienlie

Lange

 

Frodo knows Lange is more of a threat than Kienlie and knows he needs to probably have a few minutes on him when he hits T2. I reckon him and AB will hatch a plan to work together. 

 

Watching Lange on the bike, he was really pushing that 12m gap. Looked more like 8m a lot of the time.

Edited by zed

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Ali isn’t a genuine contender in my opinion this year, I think Kona takes years to crack it would be an epic result to win it in his second race ever. Macca took several attempts and had won like 10 other Ironman races before he cracked Kona. Crowie won at his second attempt but that was after a 6 year epic reign winning 70.3. 

I can’t wait to see him throwing down on the bike and he is a racer so will be going with the moves. I likes his Ricky Bobby “ if you ain’t first you are last” attitude.

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52 minutes ago, Gilliga said:

Ali isn’t a genuine contender in my opinion this year, I think Kona takes years to crack it would be an epic result to win it in his second race ever. Macca took several attempts and had won like 10 other Ironman races before he cracked Kona. Crowie won at his second attempt but that was after a 6 year epic reign winning 70.3. 

I can’t wait to see him throwing down on the bike and he is a racer so will be going with the moves. I likes his Ricky Bobby “ if you ain’t first you are last” attitude.

Chrissie and Ryf seemed to manage it.

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7 minutes ago, FatPom said:

Chrissie and Ryf seemed to manage it.

didnt daniela come second to carfrae in year 1 at Kona? You are still correct though, it could be done...

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If we go back to ‘normal’ conditions the runners will be chasing from too far back. Frodo, Sebi,O’Donnell and even Currie - can all put 10 min into Lange in swim/bike and all run under sub 2.50. It’s a Crowie 2010 situation. If Ali sensible his race plan is very simple. Sit on Frodo’s feet in swim, sit on frodo’s wheel who should be on Sebi’s wheel on bike from 70k, sit behind Frodo until 30km on run. If he is still there, go for it. If not, work out what you need to improve to have same race plan next year. 

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Traditionally when the race is on a full moon conditions are tough.

This year the Full moon is due on the 13th of October

Race date this year is the 12th of October.

I'd predict the worst conditions we have seen in a long time for 2019.

A swim biker will win it.  Not a runner.

#konaprediction

 

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1 minute ago, Peter said:

Traditionally when the race is on a full moon conditions are tough.

This year the Full moon is due on the 13th of October

Race date this year is the 12th of October.

I'd predict the worst conditions we have seen in a long time for 2019.

A swim biker will win it.  Not a runner.

#konaprediction

 

Well Frodo and AB are swim/bike/runners aren't they?

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1 hour ago, FatPom said:

Chrissie and Ryf seemed to manage it.

Both female examples. How many men have won first up at Kona and /or in their second ever iron distance? AB is world class any distance, a generational athlete so he could be the exception. Frodo won at his second attempt? And year one I think he got a penalty putting him off the win. (Maybe wrong on that point)

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21 minutes ago, zed said:

Well Frodo and AB are swim/bike/runners aren't they?

I’m not certain we can say AB is a biker at full distance. At Oly and 70.3 he has shown power but at his only IM he lost a lot of time in the last 40km. Maybe he is like a Greg Bennet, his Ironman attempts faded in that back section bike and he was/is renowned as one of the great non draft legal Oly distance bikers of his generation. From a conversation with some others he trained with leading to Bennett’s ironmans he wasn’t able to do the long slow stuff, he trained all intensity like his Shorter Course work and that could have hurt his racing, Brownlee may be the same, doing heaps of work but wrong zones? Who knows, I’m hopin he is being advised /coached now specific for IM.

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32 minutes ago, Gilliga said:

Both female examples. How many men have won first up at Kona and /or in their second ever iron distance? AB is world class any distance, a generational athlete so he could be the exception. Frodo won at his second attempt? And year one I think he got a penalty putting him off the win. (Maybe wrong on that point)

Customer should be onto them for being good

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2 hours ago, zed said:

Well Frodo and AB are swim/bike/runners aren't they?

I wasn’t talking about them. We all know who you are tipping. You can take a chill pill now. 

2 hours ago, Bosco said:

If we go back to ‘normal’ conditions the runners will be chasing from too far back. Frodo, Sebi,O’Donnell and even Currie - can all put 10 min into Lange in swim/bike and all run under sub 2.50. . 

I was saying these guys and the gun runners cant win.  

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I’ll tip him for the win. Someone has to and I could look like a genius come October. :lol: 

 

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AB will get his doors blown off from 110km into the ride, and loose 10mins to Frodo, Sebbie and Lange. 

Sanders will run through town, up Palani, but will pull out on the Highway.

Cam Wurf will lead all the way to the energy lab, but will end up outside the top 5. 

Ryf will come off the bike with a 20 minute lead, run a high 3.10 and cruise to victory. Lucy Charles will have a shocker of a swim, and struggle on the bike.

I also think we get 23 more Kona threads before start day

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Lucy won’t have a bad swim. But you are probably right on everything else. 

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2 hours ago, Lost in transition said:

AB will get his doors blown off from 110km into the ride, and loose 10mins to Frodo, Sebbie and Lange. 

Sanders will run through town, up Palani, but will pull out on the Highway.

Cam Wurf will lead all the way to the energy lab, but will end up outside the top 5. 

Ryf will come off the bike with a 20 minute lead, run a high 3.10 and cruise to victory. Lucy Charles will have a shocker of a swim, and struggle on the bike.

I also think we get 23 more Kona threads before start day

Sanders still has to qualify... I cant imagine the field being overly strong at Mont Tremblant but its a $60K purse and there is only one slot there so who knows..

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4 hours ago, Lost in transition said:

AB will get his doors blown off from 110km into the ride, and loose 10mins to Frodo, Sebbie and Lange. 

Sanders will run through town, up Palani, but will pull out on the Highway.

Cam Wurf will lead all the way to the energy lab, but will end up outside the top 5. 

Ryf will come off the bike with a 20 minute lead, run a high 3.10 and cruise to victory. Lucy Charles will have a shocker of a swim, and struggle on the bike.

I also think we get 23 more Kona threads before start day

Why do you think my Lucy will have a shit swim? She was flying at Roth. Beat most of the male pros in the swim.

You would think the 180km ride in heat with wind and hills would hit AB hard, compared to what he's used to. No idea how he's going to ride, will he chase Wurf or hang back and work with Frodo and co?

This race will break Sanders if he goes in with high expectations.

 

 

Edited by zed

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4 hours ago, Lost in transition said:

Lucy Charles will have a shocker of a swim, and struggle on the bike.

I also think we get 23 more Kona threads before start day

Lucy Charles having a bad swim means she only beats half the men, not most of them :lol:

if there is one weakness she doesn't have it's the swim. No one can match her. As for the bike, you never know. She's been getting stronger and I reckon it's when not if she starts to beat Ryf. 

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ok, when I say shit swim, instead of being 10mins out of the water in front, she will be only 4 mins.

Oh and also, Lucy will come out of the swim holding 2 jelly fish under her arms, and a small fish between her big toe on her left foot. 

 

Edited by Lost in transition
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On 10/07/2019 at 9:17 PM, Bored@work said:

I'll tip a DNF

Me too. He suffers in the heat. His attitude will push him hard and hit the wall. I hope I am wrong as he will add a new twist to Kona, which seems to be losing it's "special feel".

FM

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13 hours ago, Flanman said:

Me too. He suffers in the heat. His attitude will push him hard and hit the wall. I hope I am wrong as he will add a new twist to Kona, which seems to be losing it's "special feel".

FM

I've read this a lot. Is this some kind of urban myth or there an infamous race where he completely bonked in the heat? I've never seen him fail when he's been at the world champs, Olympics etc And some of those races were hot and humid, Rio, Beijing, Gold Coast. I would be surprised if he does all his training in "sunny" Yorkshire and then rocks up in Hawaii 3 days before race day to acclimatise.....

I do agree, though, that if he does fail, it will be because of his aggressive attitude. He will push hard on the bike and will want to get off the bike in the top 3. And perhaps he hasn't experienced anything like Kona before? That said, I thought he rode a sensible, controlled bike for Ironman Cork. Didn't chase the guy and was patient.

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1 hour ago, zed said:

I've read this a lot. Is this some kind of urban myth or there an infamous race where he completely bonked in the heat? I've never seen him fail when he's been at the world champs, Olympics etc And some of those races were hot and humid, Rio, Beijing, Gold Coast. I would be surprised if he does all his training in "sunny" Yorkshire and then rocks up in Hawaii 3 days before race day to acclimatise.....

I do agree, though, that if he does fail, it will be because of his aggressive attitude. He will push hard on the bike and will want to get off the bike in the top 3. And perhaps he hasn't experienced anything like Kona before? That said, I thought he rode a sensible, controlled bike for Ironman Cork. Didn't chase the guy and was patient.

we've covered this... because JB has passed out about 5 times due to heat, it means that AB cant handle the heat despite his record in hot races that you have mentioned...

I also that he may not be able to hold back, and given that kona is VERY hot I expect he will fail and then will forever be known as being unable to handle the heat...

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8 minutes ago, pieman said:

we've covered this... because JB has passed out about 5 times due to heat, it means that AB cant handle the heat despite his record in hot races that you have mentioned...

I also that he may not be able to hold back, and given that kona is VERY hot I expect he will fail and then will forever be known as being unable to handle the heat...

lol

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The great thing is we are going to find out in about 7 weeks. 

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1 minute ago, Peter said:

The great thing is we are going to find out in about 7 weeks. 

Is this the strongest male and female pro lineup ever? 4 guys who could all go sub 8.

 

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56 minutes ago, zed said:

Is this the strongest male and female pro lineup ever? 4 guys who could all go sub 8.

 

The thing is, they only need to win by 1 second.  

I think this is one of Lionels issues.  He just tried to win by as much as he can.

Mind you Ryf does that too and she's doing okay.

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9 hours ago, zed said:

I've read this a lot. Is this some kind of urban myth or there an infamous race where he completely bonked in the heat?

Whilst not long course, he did suffer at Super League. I remember him saying during the interview there that he does suffer a bit and it's not his preference. Let's hope not.

FM

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Anyone want to have a stab at what odds you get on Ali for Kona? 12/1?

My best guess: 

Frodo 3/1 , Lange 7/2, Kienle 6/1, sanders 8/1,  Currie, Wurf, Aerunots, McNamee 10/1, Hoffman, O’donnell, Brownlee 12/1 - there are too many now I’ve done that in 8 to 12/1 range. Maybe I’ll get better than 12/1 on brownlee?

I like Ali at 12/1 if anyone wants other side before 70.3 worlds. 

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I would put AB higher than 12/1 especially if he wins in Nice. 6/1

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15 hours ago, Flanman said:

Whilst not long course, he did suffer at Super League. I remember him saying during the interview there that he does suffer a bit and it's not his preference. Let's hope not.

FM

Definitely suffered Gold Coast 2016 also, finished 21st I think. Johnny was bouncing of the barriers near the end, ended up in a wheel chair and taken off at the finish line also.

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47 minutes ago, Trier said:

Definitely suffered Gold Coast 2016 also, finished 21st I think. Johnny was bouncing of the barriers near the end, ended up in a wheel chair and taken off at the finish line also.

Finished 36th... but it was his first race since having ankle surgery the year prior so not sure it was heat related... he wasnt in a wheelchair and unable to get a medal like his brother...

 

he's put out a YT video saying he wants to win Kona, but has been told that you need to go to learn first so that's what he is doing this year but he still wants to perform well...

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Patrick Lange will be lucky if he makes the top 10 this year... no Dreitz = no domestique plus with Frodo and AB there, race dynamics will be very different. I'd imagine they'd ride with Wurf? The three of them hitting T2 together and then a 2 horse race between Frodo and AB.

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