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Ali Brownlee Kona predictions 2019

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2 minutes ago, The new guy said:

McCrystal just dropped to 4.20

 

yup. I don't think he's run under 3 hours?

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6 hours ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

As Andrew said, why the hell did they even bother sanctioning this race. The average sea temperature for Cork in June is 13.5. The same site that lists this states today's temperature is 13.9, so it's actually warmer than average, but still too cold to race.

 

I agree. Crazy. How much research do they actually do for race suitability? 

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24 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

. Looks much better than the leader,

Looking fresh is important! 

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11 minutes ago, willie said:

If anyone was going to run 2.35 in Ironman I'd put my money on him to do it 

Agree, but doesn't look like it will be today. 19:30 for the next 5km. Still closing on those in front though.

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24 minutes ago, The new guy said:

AB into 2nd - 7.10 off the lead.

As long as AB doesn't explode it's surely only a matter of time. 1:40 down at 25k

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So what's with the IM site. The leaderboard shows AB 4:56 behind at 25.3km, and their live blog says he's 1:26. They've been out by about 3 minutes for the last 10km.

image.thumb.png.6d59da86bed1d455263bfb9a0f747043.png

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19 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

So what's with the IM site. The leaderboard shows AB 4:56 behind at 25.3km, and their live blog says he's 1:26. They've been out by about 3 minutes for the last 10km.

image.thumb.png.6d59da86bed1d455263bfb9a0f747043.png

He's 4.56 behind as in, he'll make the pass in 4.56, but when you factor in staggered start, he's only 1.26 behind. He's now in the virtual lead.

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That's right. At least the winner is likely to break the tape first. It would have been bad to have 2 athletes within seconds of each other in the real results, but not even able to see each other.

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That was really bad coverage.

How hard is it to position a finish line camera?

And looks like Brownlee is off to Kona!

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3 hours ago, zed said:

I agree. Crazy. How much research do they actually do for race suitability? 

Show em the money and you could put a race on the M5 in peak hour...

Government $ and incentives normally get the Ironman. 

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7 hours ago, Clyde said:

That was really bad coverage.

How hard is it to position a finish line camera?

And looks like Brownlee is off to Kona!

All credit to him.... Miserable conditions.... and hung tough. Lets see what happens in the heat. I suspect he might need to spend 3 months in Kona....... discovery mission.

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Easy win. Kona spot gained. Paced Perfectly.

Zero chance to win Kona.  You can quote me on that.

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27 minutes ago, Peter said:

Easy win. Kona spot gained. Paced Perfectly.

Zero chance to win Kona.  You can quote me on that.

probably not with a 2.51 marathon. but don't quote me...

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48 minutes ago, Peter said:

Easy win. Kona spot gained. Paced Perfectly.

Zero chance to win Kona.  You can quote me on that.

 

20 minutes ago, Prince said:

probably not with a 2.51 marathon. but don't quote me...

I should have said.  Zero chance of winning Kona in 2019.  You can quote me on that.

Edited by Peter

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11 hours ago, zed said:

yup. I don't think he's run under 3 hours?

 

McCrystal works full time in a jewellers and has a young family. Doesn't really have any sponsors outside of his local butcher. 

Edited by Crowies crushed nuts
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53 minutes ago, Crowies crushed nuts said:

 

McCrystal works full time in a jewellers and has a young family. Doesn't really have any sponsors outside of his local butcher. 

yeah read that. Pretty impressive!

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21 minutes ago, Bored@work said:

Just watching some of the footage on line. Plenty of ppl walking up the hill on the bike 

yeah plenty of peeps on road bikes. 20 people from WA raced over there. Guys that would ride sub on IMWA rode 6 hours+! Maybe they'd been on the guiness?

Edited by zed

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6 minutes ago, zed said:

yeah plenty of peeps on road bikes. 20 people from WA raced over there. Guys that would ride sub on IMWA rode 6 hours+! Maybe they'd been on the guiness?

Maybe they couldn't find the short-cut. ;)

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4 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Maybe they couldn't find the short-cut. ;)

Harsh, but fair. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Maybe they couldn't find the short-cut. ;)

I just spat my coffee out. 

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3 hours ago, Peter said:

 

I should have said.  Zero chance of winning Kona in 2019.  You can quote me on that.

I seem to remember you saying that about the future of IMWA and Busso 70.3!

And I believe you even wagered a carton of piss!

 

Edited by zed

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37 minutes ago, zed said:

I seem to remember you saying that about the future of IMWA and Busso 70.3!

And I believe you even wagered a carton of piss!

 

Find it and I'll pay up.

 

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Race temperature/conditions were perfect for him. Kona will be a different story though, we've seen how well the Brownlees go in the heat.

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9 minutes ago, Bored@work said:

First full distance ???

Ironman 138.2

It's becoming a common distance.

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20 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Ironman 138.2

It's becoming a common distance.

To be fair at least he finished the event. I have a friend who would have pulled a DNF because Ironman is swim, bike, run. 

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21 minutes ago, TimG said:

Race temperature/conditions were perfect for him. Kona will be a different story though, we've seen how well the Brownlees go in the heat.

isn't Jonny the one who has had numerous issues in the heat?  ie collapsing on multiple occasions?

Apart from him being a pom, is there any evidence that he cant race in the heat? I thought he'd done okay in the middle east, RIO etc?

Obviously Kona is next level heat...

 

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3 minutes ago, pieman said:

isn't Jonny the one who has had numerous issues in the heat?  ie collapsing on multiple occasions?

Apart from him being a pom, is there any evidence that he cant race in the heat? I thought he'd done okay in the middle east, RIO etc?

Obviously Kona is next level heat...

 

Tim Don goes alright in the heat.

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I spotted that a couple of age groupers went 8:12 and 8:14 - only 20 minutes or so off Brownlee's time - that's nuts! Were they lightning fast, or was Brownlee's time not that special (in the grand scheme of things)?

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29 minutes ago, pieman said:

isn't Jonny the one who has had numerous issues in the heat?  ie collapsing on multiple occasions?

Apart from him being a pom, is there any evidence that he cant race in the heat? I thought he'd done okay in the middle east, RIO etc?

Obviously Kona is next level heat...

 

This is what most people think of but its the wrong brother.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=you+tube+brownlees+finish&view=detail&mid=ED51BD4381E27955BBB9ED51BD4381E27955BBB9&FORM=VIRE

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5 minutes ago, IronmanFoz said:

Yes and you have been one of the ones saying he cant handle the heat so is this the mistake you have made or is A brownlee also heat averse?

 

Jonny also ran into a barrier on the gold coast a few years ago but not quite this bad but apart from sweating buckets as youd expect from a pom I dont recall A brownlee collapsing before?. 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, pieman said:

isn't Jonny the one who has had numerous issues in the heat?  ie collapsing on multiple occasions?

Apart from him being a pom, is there any evidence that he cant race in the heat? I thought he'd done okay in the middle east, RIO etc?

Obviously Kona is next level heat...

 

Middle East was their winter, so mild conditions. He's raced in hot climates though, not sure about Kona hot and only for 2 hours, not 8... 

I still think he'll go OK, he'll get off the bike top 3, between 5 - 10mins ahead of Lange. And if the heat does get to him and slow him down, he will have enough off a lead and enough running ability to still get him on the podium. Also the pros need to find a way of making sure Lange has to actually work on the bike, similar to what Macca did with Crowie a few years ago. 

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31 minutes ago, pieman said:

Yes and you have been one of the ones saying he cant handle the heat so is this the mistake you have made or is A brownlee also heat averse?

And yes..... I had them the wrong way around as well. :)

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39 minutes ago, IronmanFoz said:

And yes..... I had them the wrong way around as well. :)

Don't worry it happens to me all the time. I'm still geting AP & Turts around the wrong way.

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On 23/06/2019 at 1:39 PM, Andrew #1 said:

He did end up in hospital for 2 days though and can’t remember the last 5km. Or finishing. Or being taken to hospital ...

For a minute there I thought it might have been the same guy (as he's in the same profession as you), but then remembered Lynton swam it in 2017. 

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22 minutes ago, Bored@work said:

Don't worry it happens to me all the time. I'm still geting AP & Turts around the wrong way.

It's easy B@W. Turts does lots of different events at different locations. ;)

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24 minutes ago, Bored@work said:

Don't worry it happens to me all the time. I'm still geting AP & Turts around the wrong way.

💔

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34 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

It's easy B@W. Turts does lots of different events at different locations. ;)

And my knee hurts all the time. I just walk it in. 

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1 hour ago, Bored@work said:

Don't worry it happens to me all the time. I'm still geting AP & Turts around the wrong way.

Have either of them done a world champs event? 

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2 minutes ago, pieman said:

Have either of them done a world champs event? 

Never been seen in the same place at the same time.  :ninja:

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What an absolute shit show. That was the most boring, uneventful IM ive ever watched (including chrissys dominations).

Why hasnt IM worked out what to do with the pro athletes if the swim is cancelled? Make it a duathlon. At least give the watching audience some race vibes. I had no idea where the athletes were in order, who was actually leading, and who the fark was racing. The cameras pinged off all around the joint, and never did we get to see any athletes for a bit of athlete chat.

To cap it all off, the big pass we'd all been waiting for for 7 hours, happenend, and the camera cut to the womens leader who was running along nothing exciting....FAAAAAAAAARK. Everyone who was watching could see AB coming up to the irish lads shoulder, then BOOM!! cut camera for 30 secs, and the irish lad is in the distance.

Terrible coverage this time

 

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4 minutes ago, Lost in transition said:

Everyone who was watching could see AB coming up to the irish lads shoulder, then BOOM!! cut camera for 30 secs, and the irish lad is in the distance.

And what was worse, due to having no real back-up plan after doing away with the swim, he was actually 3:30 in front when he made that pass. Imagine if it had been a close race, and they were sprinting to the line, 3:30 apart.

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Gee they are soft over in Ireland. Didn’t even do a swim. 

871B69C4-65A7-4A13-B2E9-C84CBCF4716D.png

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