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goughy

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So, this all seems to be a bit of a mess (who have thunk it).  I keep hearing that a big stumbling block has to do with the Irish border, and trying not to have a hard border there?

Wouldn't it be easier if England just gave NI back, and that does away with the whole hard border issue?  Maybe if I tweet that and tag Theresa May in it, she might be able to bring it up in Parliament......

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54 minutes ago, goughy said:

So, this all seems to be a bit of a mess (who have thunk it).  I keep hearing that a big stumbling block has to do with the Irish border, and trying not to have a hard border there?

Wouldn't it be easier if England just gave NI back, and that does away with the whole hard border issue?  Maybe if I tweet that and tag Theresa May in it, she might be able to bring it up in Parliament......

I suggested this (giving NI back) to my Father in law over Christmas. I was nearly ex family 

Apparently just because they are not bombing each other does not mean the feelings have gone down!

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A F*** up in so many ways its impossible to describe, and long running as well.  Like a mad soap opera but with consequences.  Its a bit like the young ones driving off the "Cliff"

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17 hours ago, rory-dognz said:

I suggested this (giving NI back) to my Father in law over Christmas. I was nearly ex family 

Apparently just because they are not bombing each other does not mean the feelings have gone down!

Being from the "republican" side of the fence (literally) Id say its a great idea. 

The para-miltary forces over there have really morphed as they struggle for relevance when most people are these days more interested in simply having better lives than which religion you are. They have become a bit like our outlaw motor cycle gangs, controlling drug trade and the like but doing it and recruiting under the guise of the old dividing lines. 

Feelings are still strong among certain sectors and certain generations, there are still plenty of streets lined with union jacks, but its certainly not the overriding vibe of the land like it has been in the past. 

Ironically Brexit may end up alienating even some of the loyalists, as a hard borer will be a massive pain in the arse to everyone and impinge on the freedoms they have enjoyed for some time now. 

 

 

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Oh and you have to have some sympathy for Theresa May if ever there was a no win position, she has it. 

She originally didn't want to leave the EU, now she is leading the party trying to negotiate the impossible, her own party are giving her terrible grief and want to dump her, then don't vote her out, probably because noone else really wanted the job. 

And regardless of what ends up happening at the end of March she will probably be forever tainted with the result, even though the onset wasn't her doing she is just trying to make the best of a bad situation. 

 

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It's simple - England needs to become independent from the UK leaving Scotland and Ireland to remain in the Union. The majority of Scots voted to remain. Everyone would be happy with this solution! The Scots could then keep their oil to themselves and wouldn't need to endure the Royals any longer. 😂

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2 hours ago, roxii said:

Oh and you have to have some sympathy for Theresa May if ever there was a no win position, she has it. 

She originally didn't want to leave the EU, now she is leading the party trying to negotiate the impossible, her own party are giving her terrible grief and want to dump her, then don't vote her out, probably because noone else really wanted the job. 

And regardless of what ends up happening at the end of March she will probably be forever tainted with the result, even though the onset wasn't her doing she is just trying to make the best of a bad situation. 

 

I would agree with this.  She seemed dumped into a no win situation when those that got brexit through the referendum jumped ship (that is what happened wasn't it??)

And we think our politics is a mess with really only 3 major parties (2 in a coalition).  Even the US only has two. How many are there in the UK, all trying to rule with varying volatile coalitions?

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8 hours ago, goughy said:

I would agree with this.  She seemed dumped into a no win situation when those that got brexit through the referendum jumped ship (that is what happened wasn't it??)

And we think our politics is a mess with really only 3 major parties (2 in a coalition).  Even the US only has two. How many are there in the UK, all trying to rule with varying volatile coalitions?

Oh lordy. I had hoped for Trannies to be a Brexit free zone!!

Brexit was always going to be a no-win situation, what was promised was never going to be delivered and a lot of the leave voters (not all) voted for it as a reaction to their dissatisfaction with their lot rather than any actual issue with the EU (despite being a staunch remainer I do admit that the EU has issues, they're just not the ones that most people voted on). This is evidences by the overwhelming number of examples of leave voters being asked which specific EU regulation they are looking forward to being free of and them not being able to name an actual one. 

However I have no sympathy for TM. She chose to campaign hard to become leader of the party knowing that this was going to be her job. She has since made error after error in the negotiation and delivery phase starting with not being honest and saying to people "You were told a pack of lies but there is a democratic mandate to leave and so we will have to pursue that road but it will not be the sunny uplands that you thought it was going to be."

Followed by:

  1. Triggering Article 50 and thereby putting a 2 year time limit on negotiations. There was no need to do this.
  2. Calling a general election in which she lost her majority and had to make a dodgy deal with the DUP (a small party in Westminster who represent loyalists in Northern Ireland) this has meant that she has ended up with the backstop problem. If she didn't have to keep the DUP sweet then she could have done a deal whereby only NI would remain aligned to EU rules if no free trade deal was done.
  3. Failing to publish impact reports (which all show that the UK will be worse off under any deal) as soon as they were done.
  4. Not commissioning impact reports for all sectors.
  5. Appointing incompetent after incompetent to the role of Brexit Secretary (I mean, see Dominic Raab's comments about not realising how important Dover - Calais was to UK trade!!!!! W the ACTUAL F!
  6. Not believing that the EU27 mean what they say and say what they mean. They said clearly from the outside what their red lines were and they have stuck to them whilst the UK has flapped around (and continues to do so) demanding they make a special case for us.
  7. Talking about "bringing the country together" whilst ignoring the 62.5% of the electorate (plus many more too young or been abroad to long to vote) who did NOT vote for Brexit.
  8. Oh I could go on but I'm so fed up with her, the Tories, the twatmuffins that are Gove, Johnson and Rees-Mogg and the whole sorry mess that has seen my country embarrassed and diminished wherever I go in the world.
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E2A for completeness: Coalitions are very uncommon in the UK. Our first past the post system usually means one party has an overall majority. It's just in recent memory that we have had one Coalition (Lib Dem / Conservative) and the current Confidence and Supply deal with the DUP.

And no, "giving NI back" is a ridiculous idea, I assume it was said tongue in cheek or we can have another in depth discussion about a feud that has been going on for about 500 years ;)

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Tongue was firmly in cheek!

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From the perspective of a dual Aussie / Brit Citizen who lives in Ireland on weekends, here is my 2p: - 

- Teresa May wanted the job. It was never going to be easy. She has made mistake after mistake and betrayed the British people (both Leavers and Remainers by delegating the negotiations to a Civil Servant, not getting the approvals for what she was seeking before she negotiated it and checking with Merkel and Macron that the deal was valid before checking with the British public. She is an idiot and I have no sympathy. 

- Trying to find a solution to this is like going to the video store with 8 of your mates and finding something that no-one has seen and everyone wants to watch. Except it's not a video store. It's 650 people representing 70 million people who have many different views on the topic; some banal, some extreme.

- The North can't simply secede the Union for the sake of a geo/economic/political construct. The Republic of Ireland don't want the North as they can't afford to give the same handouts and services and the NI population don't want to become part of the Republic as they would give up better schools, housing, roads, healthcare. They also don't want the Troubles to restart, but everyone is aware of the RA reforming and incidents in Derry which make people a bit nervous.

- The EU is a flawed institution and will be massively reduced in scale if there is no deal and no ongoing payments from GB into the EU. The whole notion of the EU was to reduce the possibility of another WWII by France controlling the steel and Germany the coal. It has grown and morphed into an unwieldy bureaucratic juggernaught which controls every aspect of the lives of European citizens. It also massively erodes the sovereignty of member nations by ceding authority to groups of people we cannot elect (admittedly, we elect some of these). If their are no further GB payments, either all of the remaining countries have to contribute more, or receive less. Greece and Italy also have massive loans to Germany and are watching with interest to see whether they can default on those if the EU fails - they cannot pay them back under their own steam.  Other separatist bodies are also looking at the future as a way of advancing their cause (the Catalans, the Basques, the Walloons, the Flandrians, the Scots and the Northies just some).  

- Trade will continue. GB is the biggest, most profitable European market for cars, especially German ones. If the CEOs of VAG, Daimler-Chrysler, BMW, Group PSA and others aren't lobbying for preferential trade terms in the case of a full Brexit, then they are idiots. People still need to be fed and trade contracts still need to be serviced and honoured - no-one has the luxury of time to find other business partners. Also, Britain does more of it's trade outside the EU than within and has massive trade deficits with the countries seeking to punish GB hardest. That is not going to end well for them.

All in all, the negotiators are not sitting back and realising that everyone has something to lose from this and being pig-headed and obstinate. I wish that there would be no deal to just get on with it. 

PS - I could go on ....

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I stand corrected on TM.  I accept she's as bad as her dancing!

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2 hours ago, Rimmer said:

- Trade will continue. GB is the biggest, most profitable European market for cars, especially German ones. If the CEOs of VAG, Daimler-Chrysler, BMW, Group PSA and others aren't lobbying for preferential trade terms in the case of a full Brexit, then they are idiots. People still need to be fed and trade contracts still need to be serviced and honoured - no-one has the luxury of time to find other business partners. Also, Britain does more of it's trade outside the EU than within and has massive trade deficits with the countries seeking to punish GB hardest. That is not going to end well for them.

Ah. But here is where I believe the UK Centric view differs from that of our European friends. Although this is an oft repeated comment and it is factually accurate it looks at trade with the EU through UK glasses. EU / UK trade is important (it is by far our biggest single export market and the UK is a large export market for the EU although imports to the UK from the EU only represent 2% of EU GDP) but to those in the EU27, especially Germany, maintaining the stability of the EU is more important. Germany has benefitted hugely from not only the EU but also the Eurozone (especially exporters who have benefitted from a currency that has not appreciated as it should have because it is shared by some basket cases) and so they would rather see trade with the UK tail off than damage the integrity of the union which has been shown by the position of their negotiators throughout.

I also have to take issue with the term "ceding authority to people we cannot elect" no more authority is ceded to the commission (which is the only non-directly elected part of the EU but it is appointed by directly elected representatives) than to our own civil servants in the UK. There are naturally some areas of law that relate to a single integrated market that have to eventually be decided at a super-national level because that's part and parcel of being in a single market. But I'd be genuinely interested to hear how the EU "controls every aspect of the lives of European citizens" in the UK in areas that do not relate to being part of a single market?

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Also, Britain does more of it's trade outside the EU than within and has massive trade deficits with the countries seeking to punish GB hardest. That is not going to end well for them.

Am I reading that right

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2 hours ago, BarryBevan said:

Also, Britain does more of it's trade outside the EU than within and has massive trade deficits with the countries seeking to punish GB hardest. That is not going to end well for them.

Am I reading that right

In 2017 47% of UK exports went to the EU whilst 55% of imports came from within it. So whether the UK does more of its trade outside the EU is basically 50/50. The issue is that all the trade we do outside the EU is covered by trade agreements with the EU. So yeah the UK exports to Canada / the US / Australia that is all done under deals made between the EU and those countries which is on much more favourable terms than the UK could hope to get on its own.

Also, nobody is looking to "punish" the UK. They are just looking after their own interests. Like Australia making it very clear that it won't allow the UK to join WTO on the same rules that it currently has. It's not punishment, it's just life.

Edit: because I said EU when I meant UK!

Edited by monkie

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2 hours ago, BarryBevan said:

Also, Britain does more of it's trade outside the EU than within and has massive trade deficits with the countries seeking to punish GB hardest. That is not going to end well for them.

Am I reading that right

Yes, you did. By leaving the single market and the possible imposition of tariffs on EU products in the process, the EU27 Member States products become less competitive than other imports from nations which will have a trade deal signed in April (these are being worked on at the moment, believe me). 

As an example, 40% of Irish food exports are to the UK and that is an industry which supports 1.3m people in the Republic. If that food is less competitive that imports from the US and Canada (agreed, not as fresh) and the Irish don’t have replacement markets for that food, yes, it won’t end well for them. Leo Varadkar has admitted this! And then there is the automotive sector .... Germany and France headed toward recession and car sales tanking in the UK (their highest yield market) and 1m people in Lower Saxony alone (directly) dependent on sales of their product.

It’s like I said, everyone needs to sit back and realise what they all have to lose. That’s what a negotiation is.

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5 minutes ago, Rimmer said:

Yes, you did. By leaving the single market and the possible imposition of tariffs on EU products in the process, the EU27 Member States products become less competitive than other imports from nations which will have a trade deal signed in April (these are being worked on at the moment, believe me). 

It took Canada 7 years... do you honestly think April is achievable? If so, why?

Edit to add: Remember this is just goods. Which is a very very small part of UK exports.

Edited by monkie

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Canada’s negotiations were described as “half-hearted” by a colleague as they were pretty self-sufficient and their trading partners didn’t need reciprocal trade and could afford to wait. When you look at the volume and value of trade in goods and services Britain want to trade with the EU and the rest of the world, there is a greater imperative. 

When I look at my UK shop, almost all of the vegetables and fruit I buy are sourced from outside the EU, and the rest from markets which can ill afford to lose this as a market. 

It mght not happen immediately, but threatened with competing with the rest of the world, this will bring the EU to the table.

I also think that certain Eurozone countries teetering on the brink (Spain with 37% youth enemployment, Italy with significant debt and cashflow issues, Germany with their manufacturing, Eastern European markets which export labour to GB etc) will ensure they don’t miss the bus on keeping nice with Britain. This will cause a fracturing in the case of a no deal.

i also think it’d be different if it were the likes of say, Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia leaving. 

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Ah I see. Thought this early on, the French and Germans will want to export their goods, especially all those VW cars. UK, Germany and France are basically the EU.

It can't be in anyones interest to weaken the UK economy with a bad exit.

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2 hours ago, BarryBevan said:

It can't be in anyones interest to weaken the UK economy with a bad exit.

But you see it really is. The EU relies on being a coherent and cohesive block. The EU27 must ensure that the deal that Britain gets outside is worse than it got on the inside and they will do so. They said right from the beginning that they will not make a deal that will leave us better off. Boris Johnson etc. spout "Piff waffle, they need to sell us BMWs and Prosecco" and then, surprise surprise, the deal is what they said it would be all along.

The UK only makes up 15% of the GDP of the EU and our imports (as I said above) only account for 2% of total GDP. Yes, that's a significant chunk but there is another 85% of GDP and 98% of EU exports that needs protecting.

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Heard this morning that Nissan are leaving the UK as well. 

Are these "Brexit" decisions or are they using Brexit as a convenient "out" to move to cheaper manufacturing bases without any public backlash? 

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6 minutes ago, roxii said:

Heard this morning that Nissan are leaving the UK as well. 

Are these "Brexit" decisions or are they using Brexit as a convenient "out" to move to cheaper manufacturing bases without any public backlash? 

Depends who you believe... the leave side will dismiss any suggestion that these major decisions are a result of the intention to leave as "project fear", sort of like the decision of Jacob Rees Mogg to move a significant part of his private business operation to Dublin or Dyson (leave campaigner) moving his headquarters to Singapore are all "coincidence".

I tend to believe in cause and effect though and so reckon they are at least in the main part due to Brexit.

For car manufacturing components cross into and out of the UK several times (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/03/brexit-uk-car-industry-mini-britain-eu) and if we end up with WTO tariffs they would be applied each time it crosses. It's naive to think that those kind of impacts are not affecting these decisions.

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13 hours ago, monkie said:

Depends who you believe... the leave side will dismiss any suggestion that these major decisions are a result of the intention to leave as "project fear", sort of like the decision of Jacob Rees Mogg to move a significant part of his private business operation to Dublin or Dyson (leave campaigner) moving his headquarters to Singapore are all "coincidence".

I tend to believe in cause and effect though and so reckon they are at least in the main part due to Brexit.

For car manufacturing components cross into and out of the UK several times (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/03/brexit-uk-car-industry-mini-britain-eu) and if we end up with WTO tariffs they would be applied each time it crosses. It's naive to think that those kind of impacts are not affecting these decisions.

Barclays shifted £160B worth of assets to be managed in Dublin for 5,000 high net worth clients last week - their Office in Dublin is 6 people and will continue to be managed from Canary Wharf. All companies are hedging their bets on the outcome and wanting to ensure that their Stakeholders and Shareholders are protected - unfortunately, the workers may suffer in the process.

The manufacturing process and the trans-shipping of parts and finished products is very interesting and another case where some caution should be exercised. I have seen a study that BMW commissioned that demonstrated that the parts and cars flowing backwards and forwards between mainland Europe and the UK, with the imposition of WTO nominal 10% tariffs (for the Mini manufactured in Oxford and BMWs on mainland Europe) is enough to put BMW out of business in its volume of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Series and Minis. And that is just BMW!

People need to have some clear heads on these negotiations.

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https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

That is the actual cost. Can't find a figure for the costs to trade of not being in the EU, just the opportunity lost which is a prediction.

On the principle the the UK is the third largest market and is also a significant trader to non EU countries, which should be of benefit to highly specialised smaller EU nations who relay on the UK to export to the broader world economy.

Then the principle should be free trade

MIgration and movements of people within the EU?

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3 hours ago, BarryBevan said:

MIgration and movements of people within the EU?

And this is the problem that people are starting to see, sadly, when immigration should bring so much to a country (said as an immigrant, myself). It was unfiltered and unchecked and we had the situation here in the UK where men in their 30s were lying about their age and being sent to secondary schools to sit alongside minors. A lot of them have brought problems and become a drain on the resources of the host country.

People eventually resent this, despite the best of intentions. 

And Britain also has itself to blame by offering a welfare state (housing, health care, education, cash etc) far, far better than any migrant would ever get in their home country, inside or outside of the EU .... the fact is that freedom of movement and the lack of enforcement of the Dublin Agreement (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Regulation) have contributed to this to Britain's detriment and caused the resentment toward immigration that we saw in sections of the community during and after the Brexit debate. 

A colleague of mine runs a business in Germany called LQ Enterprise GmbH. This company tries to place migrants into jobs and he is sick of the lies and untruths about skills and education which are found out when they are placed. Many of them don't want to live in Germany where the benefits aren't as great as the UK, but are using Germany as a stepping stone. Merkel knows this, which is why she's keen to push the problem to Britain as she now has 800,000 unplanned, extra (that they know of) mouths to feed, house, clothe, and train. Macron in France is simply holding the door open for them toward Britain as they have no cash or inclination to spend on migrants. Italy, Spain and Greece are the same. 

But, the most telling country is Sweden; as a Swedish mate of mine said ... "When Sweden has a problem with immigration, you know there is a problem". 

Contrast that with Norway, which enforces a rule of only safety net benefits, dis-aggregation, enforcement of sharing of language and culture and all of a sudden, migration is less of a problem. And they are not bound by the Dublin Agreement, but follow it better than any of the other signatories.

Upshot - it's a mess!

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Thought so. As a long term resident citizen of Oz, had planned to go back to Uk, Scotland for a while to work, not forever. While this is going on, not sure I'm ready to up and leave with so much uncertainty.

Still if I land that CIO job or just go contracting in London

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2 hours ago, BarryBevan said:

Thought so. As a long term resident citizen of Oz, had planned to go back to Uk, Scotland for a while to work, not forever. While this is going on, not sure I'm ready to up and leave with so much uncertainty.

Still if I land that CIO job or just go contracting in London

The thing is that my phone has been running off the hook with Agents and Clients looking for implementation assistance - there will be disruption, that is a given ... it's just how you handle that disruption!!! Also, many of the companies I have investigated no longer have a base in the UK and have established satellite offices in the EU. BA is a classic example - now HQ'd in IAG's Offices in Madrid, so that they can still comply with EU Regs and Open Skies

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6 hours ago, Rimmer said:

The thing is that my phone has been running off the hook with Agents and Clients looking for implementation assistance - there will be disruption, that is a given ... it's just how you handle that disruption!!! Also, many of the companies I have investigated no longer have a base in the UK and have established satellite offices in the EU. BA is a classic example - now HQ'd in IAG's Offices in Madrid, so that they can still comply with EU Regs and Open Skies

Hmm I spoke to mate of mine who went back after years in Oil and Gas and Banking in Asia Pacific and there is heaps of work and if they do get this exit done, there will be work (suppose costs of brexit) unpicking it all

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