Jump to content
Peter

Can carfrea win kona again?

Recommended Posts

I say nope  

20 minutes behind winner 

 

 

👚 #IronmanArgentina  

8:20:17 Sarah Crowley 🇦🇺

8:23:40 Susie Cheetham 🇬🇧📸

8:28:57 Minna Koistinen 🇫🇮

8:32:18 Sarah Piampiano 🇺🇸

8:32:59 Asa Lundstroem 🇸🇪

8:39:31 Mirinda Carfrae 🇦🇺

8:56:52 Dede Griesbauer 🇺🇸

8:57:26 Bruna Mahn 🇧🇷

.

9:00:22 Ashley Paulson 🇺🇸

9:19:13 Pierangela Dezerega 🇨🇱F30

9:25:33 Caroline Livesey 🇬🇧

9:32:42 Elisabetta Villa 🇮🇹F45

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't take much from this race, but my answer is still no.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nah she's too far behind on the bike now to factor. If she dropped 20mins on the bike I'd say she could win Kona. Kinda reminds me of what Crowie had to do to win again. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn’t look like the bike was the problem, she was outrun by all the other women. Pretty hard to suceed in that sport and be a parent. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Blacky said:

Pretty hard to suceed in that sport and be a parent. 

Totally depends on how much time that takes you, and how much time you can spend on your career. It's the same as any job. 

Caroline Steffen did OK as a new Mum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Blacky said:

Doesn’t look like the bike was the problem, she was outrun by all the other women. Pretty hard to suceed in that sport and be a parent. 

Heard of Caroline Steffen?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kona?  I'd love to say yes, but I don't think so.  The new guard is in place.  Podium, I still think so.

She may have been 20mins behind the winner, whom she beat in Kona didn't she??  But doesn't she still have one year left on her 5 year winners exemption, so she only needs to tick the box.  Box ticked I'd say!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No 

She's not strong enough all round any more. 

 

Fantastic athlete but her day is done. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, AA7 said:

Heard of Caroline Steffen?

I still think Rinny has Zena covered at Kona.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Peter said:

I still think Rinny has Zena covered at Kona.

Yeah, Zena hasn't had the best time in Hawaii.... Yet 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Peter said:

I still think Rinny has Zena covered at Kona.

Yeh me too. I was referring to the comment about not being successful as a parent. Course record is pretty handy comeback 11 months after having a baby.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, FFF1077 said:

Yeah, Zena hasn't had the best time in Hawaii.... Yet 

I think her two silver medals in 2010 and 2012 might be her lot...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, AA7 said:

Heard of Caroline Steffen?

They often go well first race back, but to keep that up is hard. Priorities in life change, it would be even harder if your husband does it at a high level as well. You can win Busselton if you are 5% off your best but not Hawaii. There are a few exceptions but not many. Rachael Joyce, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, then 20th as a mum and did not qualify in 2018. Top effort to just get back there though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's early days. She has the best runs, but needs to ride much more faster. If she does and Ryf takes a year off she could possibly win. Need to go back to basics.... I reckon with a child and a cushy lifestyle, the desire may not be there to work that hard again... only time will tell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, good point TC!

Will be interesting to see how the early qualified pros plan out their racing year?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No. She can put in the work to be fit enough but her priorities lie elsewhere at present. Stefan had been off the racing scene at ironman level for 3 years and started her comeback this year. Good race at IMWA. She has shown what can happen with a bit of time to let the kid grow up a bit, start in kindy and school which frees up time for training. I bet Caroline's training is quality focussed these days to maximise the returns from her available training time. 

Rinny could achieve the same if she wanted too. But that means giving up the chase for Kona for a few years. Big gamble to do so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nah. Kids, too much competition, lack of motivation etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Greyman said:

No. She can put in the work to be fit enough but her priorities lie elsewhere at present. Stefan had been off the racing scene at ironman level for 3 years and started her comeback this year. Good race at IMWA. She has shown what can happen with a bit of time to let the kid grow up a bit, start in kindy and school which frees up time for training. I bet Caroline's training is quality focussed these days to maximise the returns from her available training time. 

Rinny could achieve the same if she wanted too. But that means giving up the chase for Kona for a few years. Big gamble to do so.

Steffen's kid is only 11 months old.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I recon Rinny may go close at Kona next year.  I'm not 100% sure but I think Argentina was her 3rd ironman of the season. That result should now qualify her for Kona 2019 and allow her to plan her whole next year around that race. She said much to that effect on their Youtube show.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Mike Del said:

I recon Rinny may go close at Kona next year.  I'm not 100% sure but I think Argentina was her 3rd ironman of the season. That result should now qualify her for Kona 2019 and allow her to plan her whole next year around that race. She said much to that effect on their Youtube show.  

There was only 1 spot for a female pro. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Correction this will be her last year (2019) where she can validate. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also it depends on who turns up. She wouldn't have won if Wellington hadn't retired and she's not going to beat Rhyf or Charles. But if they're not there then who knows... similarly with the men. If Lange, Kienlie and Frodo are out, suddenly Lionel has a chance, but if the quality of the mens field remains this high he has little chance of ever winning Kona. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Peter said:

Correction this will be her last year (2019) where she can validate. 

Exactly, she's done exactly what she needed to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, zed said:

Also it depends on who turns up. She wouldn't have won if Wellington hadn't retired and she's not going to beat Rhyf or Charles. . 

Batten down the hatches. 

I 100% agree with your comments. She got “lucky” when she won kona. 

She’s an awesome athlete. Top 5 Aussie woman.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, goughy said:

Exactly, she's done exactly what she needed to.

Yeah she’s got a start in Kona. Still can’t win it. Happy to be proven wrong. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Peter said:

Correction this will be her last year (2019) where she can validate. 

Yeh Tim and Rinny explain the new Kona qualifying points system here .... about 3:30, still clear as mud though. I think she just had to do average in any Ironman and she's qualified for 2019 so she picked the 1st one she could to open up next year for an all out Kona assault.  The vid is from just before the Argentina race and she's saying she's not up for this race, just needs to do it.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, zed said:

and she's not going to beat Rhyf 

Maybe not anymore, but she's always got that one, which ended with a friggin awesome chase down by her.

I'm with Peter!  I'm used to being proven wrong and I hope I get proven so again!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mike Del said:

Yeh Tim and Rinny explain the new Kona qualifying points system here .... about 3:30, still clear as mud though. I think she just had to do average in any Ironman and she's qualified for 2019 so she picked the 1st one she could to open up next year for an all out Kona assault.  The vid is from just before the Argentina race and she's saying she's not up for this race, just needs to do it.

 

Riveting viewing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, trilobite said:

Practically looking after himself at that age...

Cranky would have them cooking her breakfast by then.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mike Del said:

Yeh Tim and Rinny explain the new Kona qualifying points system here .... about 3:30, still clear as mud though. I think she just had to do average in any Ironman and she's qualified for 2019 so she picked the 1st one she could to open up next year for an all out Kona assault.  The vid is from just before the Argentina race and she's saying she's not up for this race, just needs to do it.

 

I’ll bypass watching the video and believe you. 

Lets hope it all works out for her next October. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Peter said:

Batten down the hatches. 

I 100% agree with your comments. She got “lucky” when she won kona. 

She’s an awesome athlete. Top 5 Aussie woman.

But she's won Kona 3 times..... you can only race who turns up on the day. Besides, I think for 1 or 2 of those wins she has had to run down the field ahead of her. Her last win when she broke the record was the most impressive run you will ever see.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, IronmanFoz said:

But she's won Kona 3 times..... you can only race who turns up on the day. Besides, I think for 1 or 2 of those wins she has had to run down the field ahead of her. Her last win when she broke the record was the most impressive run you will ever see.

Haha. You fell for it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, AA7 said:

Steffen's kid is only 11 months old.

There ya go. Press at IMWA were reporting the kid as a three year old hence why I assumed she'd had a break to have the kid and play mumsy for a while, then come back. Excellent performance on the weekend to go sub- 9, just '11 months' after having a kid.

still don't think Rinny will win Kona again. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Greyman said:

There ya go. Press at IMWA were reporting the kid as a three year old hence why I assumed she'd had a break to have the kid and play mumsy for a while, then come back. Excellent performance on the weekend to go sub- 9, just '11 months' after having a kid.

still don't think Rinny will win Kona again. 

And with partner Pete doing so much travel to races, she's had to be very time efficient with her training. Been quite a few insta shots of her on the WT with bubba asleep next to her in the cot/ rocker etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, AA7 said:

And with partner Pete doing so much travel to races, she's had to be very time efficient with her training. Been quite a few insta shots of her on the WT with bubba asleep next to her in the cot/ rocker etc.

Makes you wonder what the other pro women think. Especially if they've been delaying having a family in favour of competing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think recently there are a few good examples that you can have your baby and your racing career too.

Comeback for the first race inside 6-8 months post birth.

That generally means 12-15 months away from racing in total.

(Of course, a bit easier with nanny/friends/relatives/partner to help)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nicola Spirig - on track to having her 3rd child and aiming to race the 2020 Olympics. Wouldn't surprise me if she gets her 3rd Olympic medal. Clearly loves life.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 04/12/2018 at 5:54 PM, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Cranky would have them cooking her breakfast by then.

Sorry to digress but where is Cranky?! Thought she wouldve been posting in that other thread all Sunday

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Surfer said:

Sorry to digress but where is Cranky?! Thought she wouldve been posting in that other thread all Sunday

She was busy winning her AG in the sprint race at Kingscliffe.

3rd Female outright.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

She was busy winning her AG in the sprint race at Kingscliffe.

3rd Female outright.

And she has kids. :)

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

She was busy winning her AG in the sprint race at Kingscliffe.

3rd Female outright.

Kinda trumps Customer's weak ass Spirig comparison :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 Can Carfrae get down to her goal marathon time of 2:49 in Kona? Possibly.

can Carfrae do that off a slightly better swim and bike combo than this year? Possibly.

would that be enough to see her on the podium? Yes.

would she still be 15 minutes behind Ryf on Daniela’s average day in the office? Yes.

would she be 5-10 minutes behind Charles on Lucy’s average day? Yes.

Can Miranda take her swim-bike combo to another level to be in company or at least proximity with Daniela and Lucy out of T2 to make her legendary run level count? No.

Ultimate question - could Carfrae still win Kona? Yes, but only if she gets her run back and both Daniela and Lucy have terrible days out, DNF or DNS. She probably only has 2-3 years for those particular stars to align in her favour. ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Surfer said:

Sorry to digress but where is Cranky?! Thought she wouldve been posting in that other thread all Sunday

I'm guessing report cards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Cranky said:

Yes she can!!!!

You wrote that after your bike session,  didn't you. Too rushed to type more words, lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 04/12/2018 at 1:16 PM, Greyman said:

..... She has shown what can happen with a bit of time to let the kid grow up a bit, start in kindy and school which frees up time for training. I bet Caroline's training is quality focussed these days to maximise the returns from her available training time. 

Rinny could achieve the same if she wanted too. But that means giving up the chase for Kona for a few years. Big gamble to do so.

 And getting the bubba off the boob would probably make a difference. Not sure where stress at with that. But it's a factor many don't think about. 

On 05/12/2018 at 6:04 AM, AA7 said:

And with partner Pete doing so much travel to races, she's had to be very time efficient with her training. Been quite a few insta shots of her on the WT with bubba asleep next to her in the cot/ rocker etc.

Great white noise skins to sleep to 

9 hours ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

She was busy winning her AG in the sprint race at Kingscliffe.

3rd Female outright.

Thanks. Kingy doesn't pull the participants though

9 hours ago, Surfer said:

Sorry to digress but where is Cranky?! Thought she wouldve been posting in that other thread all Sunday

What other thread? Which one am i missing? Are the eels back?

9 hours ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

And she has kids. :)

4, but only 3 at home (husband included)

1 hour ago, AA7 said:

I'm guessing report cards

....and drowning in assessment and things to do before the end of the year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×