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Peter

KONA 18 Prediction: Rank the Aussie men in finish order

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Okay super light on men racing this year.

Rank them in Finish order

Josh Amberger
Tim Reed
Cam Wurf
Tim Berkel
Luke McKenzie

Women coming tomorrow

 

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  1. Wurf (top 3)
  2. Tim Berkel
  3. Josh Amberger
  4. Tim Reed
  5. Luke McKenzie

While I luv Wurf's brash, shit stirring manner, I hate his close association with Sky. It will be interesting to see how his race unfolds.

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1. Reed (get off bike with Gomez, Langer, Currie and be a apart of an epic 4 way battle all running 2.39 with a sprint finish)

2. Wurf (lead off bike and lead till about 20km the will be passed by those mentioned above)

3. McKenzie. Have a solid swim and bike and see out the run as may be last time at Kona.

4. Berkel. Will be just off main swim pack so have to battle with 2nd pack cyclists and won’t catch up. Likely DNF start of run as out of the money and too far back.

5. Amberger. Go hard on bike with the Uber cyclists then DNF on run once out of contention.

 

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Tim Berkel - he's the best Aussie on record so most likely.

Josh Amberger - Lessons learned from last year should get him up the order

Tim Reed - think he's better at half distance.

Cam Wurf - I'm unconvinced he can pull a whole race together in Kona

Luke McKenzie - his hot race record this year isn't great.

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Serious question, have any of those guys except Wurf and Amberger been a genuine factor in an iron distance race in the last 12 months?

I totally see both Cameron and Josh influencing Kona, but I don’t see any of the other boys doing anything but making up the numbers.

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There are about 45 guys making up the numbers. 

In all honesty there are only 4 guys that can win it. None of them are aussies or yanks. 

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1 minute ago, Peter said:

There are about 45 guys making up the numbers. 

In all honesty there are only 4 guys that can win it. None of them are aussies or yanks. 

True, but there are 10-15 who could make top 5. I think Josh and Cameron have the ability if the chips fall their way, but I don’t think we even see the other boys on the telecast.

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1 hour ago, The new guy said:

Serious question, have any of those guys except Wurf and Amberger been a genuine factor in an iron distance race in the last 12 months?

I totally see both Cameron and Josh influencing Kona, but I don’t see any of the other boys doing anything but making up the numbers.

Mackenzie finished 2nd at ironman aus.

 

The main problem I have with Wurf being competitive is despite his run appearing to improve he still gets out split by age groupers. I just don't think you can do that at kona and be a genuine contender.  

 

Any of those guys could be the fastest Aussie next weekend.

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2 hours ago, RunBrettRun said:

Mackenzie finished 2nd at ironman aus.

 

What was the depth of the pro field like? 

 

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3 hours ago, Bored@work said:

What was the depth of the pro field like? 

 

Poor. From a quick look at the entry lists MacKenzie is the only pro from the PM men’s field in Kona. 

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7 hours ago, Bored@work said:

What was the depth of the pro field like? 

 

2 pros LOL 😂 

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Wurf will get off the bike 5-7 minutes ahead of the Kienle and Sanders group and over 15 minutes ahead of the Lange-Gomez peleton. Cam will then run around 3 hours for the marathon. Sanders is likely to run 10 minutes faster than Wurf, unless he completely ****s up (which seems possible given his latest run video - 35km km in the heat of the day to the energy lab and back yesterday seems somewhat ... excessive) and we know Lange is capable of 2:39, but what about the others? I can’t see many running sub 2:45 and running Cam down ...

Edited by Andrew #1

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I don't think we have seen what the guys can really run when they have to.

They only run whats needed to win.

I am sure they can go faster if they needed too.

 

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10 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

Cam will then run around 3 hours for the marathon

What are you basing that on?

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1 hour ago, Tyno said:

What are you basing that on?

If he runs the whole marathon in this his 37th IM in 2018 then he's definitely on the Team Sky jiffy bag delivery list...

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Well luck McKenzie will at least get there rested flying business. 

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On 04/10/2018 at 2:38 AM, Ironnerd said:
  1. Wurf (top 3)
  2. Tim Berkel
  3. Josh Amberger
  4. Tim Reed
  5. Luke McKenzie

While I luv Wurf's brash, shit stirring manner, I hate his close association with Sky. It will be interesting to see how his race unfolds.

I'm not a Sky fan by any means at all  (I used to like Wiggo, hence the avatar). here's what I don't get. AFAIK, Sky don't have a single convicted doper on their roster yet cop heaps of hate but Orica/Scott or whatever the hell they are called this week have Yates, Impey and Matt White but get a complete free pass. WTF?

Edited by FatPom

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6 hours ago, FatPom said:

I'm not a Sky fan by any means at all  (I used to like Wiggo, hence the avatar). here's what I don't get. AFAIK, Sky don't have a single convicted doper on their roster yet cop heaps of hate but Orica/Scott or whatever the hell they are called this week have Yates, Impey and Matt White but get a complete free pass. WTF?

Did US Postal have any convicted drug cheats in 2006?

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1 minute ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Did US Postal have any convicted drug cheats in 2006?

Point missed. There are actual drug cheats on the MS squad, so why isn't the same amount of shit thrown their way (or Movistar). I'm not saying Sky is innocent at all but the myopia is ironic.

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6 hours ago, FatPom said:

I'm not a Sky fan by any means at all  (I used to like Wiggo, hence the avatar). here's what I don't get. AFAIK, Sky don't have a single convicted doper on their roster yet cop heaps of hate but Orica/Scott or whatever the hell they are called this week have Yates, Impey and Matt White but get a complete free pass. WTF?

Because the other teams don’t absolutely dominate the main event of the year the Tour like Sky have been.

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1 minute ago, Wronggenes said:

Because the other teams don’t absolutely dominate the main event of the year the Tour like Sky have been.

So cheating is ok as long as you don't win?

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There are drug cheats on every professional cycling team, it's just the "convicted" part that is different. I think the fact that a team has 1 or 2 pop up often leads people to believe that may be it for the team (though I'm sure these were just the stupid/unlucky ones). The fact that a team can ride every other team into the ground consistently (like US Postal), have instances like the jiffy bag scandal and Froome's "Asthma", and consistently get a "clean pass", makes people think they have a sophisticated system in place like US Postal.

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And the fact that they claim a meticulous approach to all their work (the marginal gains) and yet when asked, could not say what supplements or medications particular riders were taking.

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1 minute ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

There are drug cheats on every professional cycling team, it's just the "convicted" part that is different. I think the fact that a team has 1 or 2 pop up often leads people to believe that may be it for the team (though I'm sure these were just the stupid/unlucky ones). The fact that a team can ride every other team into the ground consistently (like US Postal), have instances like the jiffy bag scandal and Froome's "Asthma", and consistently get a "clean pass", makes people think they have a sophisticated system in place like US Postal.

No doubt, I agree with you. I just want to know why the other teams with actual convicted riders don't get treated the same?  How many GTs does Yates need to win before the light gets shined on him?  It's genuine question, I don't like Sky in the least but this one traffic is quite baffling to me.

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3 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

And the fact that they claim a meticulous approach to all their work (the marginal gains) and yet when asked, could not say what supplements or medications particular riders were taking.

Well those are two different things. I don't know of any professional organisation or single professional worker that would be proud of a 'sloppy approach' to their work. 

The second bit I agree with but I'm still waiting for an actual answer to the question....

Edited by FatPom

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6 minutes ago, FatPom said:

How many GTs does Yates need to win before the light gets shined on him?

But you do realise that as soon as that light is shone on him, it will be because he took those drugs as a part of Team GB. :)

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5 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

But you do realise that as soon as that light is shone on him, it will be because he took those drugs as a part of Team GB. :)

But he's not riding for team GB, he's riding right now for MS with a DS that used to work for.........

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Still waiting on that answer, but in the mean time...

 

I'd like Wurf to win but think Lange will

Edited by FatPom

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2 minutes ago, FatPom said:

Still waiting on that answer, but in the mean time...

Did you not see my smiley face?

 

But I'm sure he was being prepped by Brailsford for the British cycling team to compete at the olympics later that year. :)

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42 minutes ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

Did you not see my smiley face?

 

But I'm sure he was being prepped by Brailsford for the British cycling team to compete at the olympics later that year. :)

That'd be the team with the three Aussie coaches, that team?:lol:

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8 hours ago, FatPom said:

I'm not a Sky fan by any means at all  (I used to like Wiggo, hence the avatar). here's what I don't get. AFAIK, Sky don't have a single convicted doper on their roster yet cop heaps of hate but Orica/Scott or whatever the hell they are called this week have Yates, Impey and Matt White but get a complete free pass. WTF?

When I first got into cycling US Postal and Lance were winning every thing. I became a massive Lance fan boi. 20+ years of watching cycling has turned me into a skeptic.

For me Team Sky reminds me of US Postal. Both teams dominated every other team over a long period. How have they managed this domination? We know how US Postal did it.

For me I there is not a lot of difference between Yates not having a TUE for an asthma inhaler and Froome failing a drug test for an asthma inhaler. 

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2 hours ago, FatPom said:

So cheating is ok as long as you don't win?

I didn’t say cheating was Ok.

i was answering your query with my opinion.  They draw more attention to themselves by their domination, which is why they get more stones thrown at them.

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13 hours ago, FatPom said:

I'm not a Sky fan by any means at all  (I used to like Wiggo, hence the avatar). here's what I don't get. AFAIK, Sky don't have a single convicted doper on their roster yet cop heaps of hate but Orica/Scott or whatever the hell they are called this week have Yates, Impey and Matt White but get a complete free pass. WTF?

Because no triathlete is tied to them in the way Wurf is to Sky.

Its pretty simple if you take off your Captain England sunnies.

 

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2 hours ago, Tyno said:

Because no triathlete is tied to them in the way Wurf is to Sky.

Its pretty simple if you take off your Captain England sunnies.

 

In the tri context, I can see that, in the wider context I can’t see the difference between Captain England sunnies and Captain Aussie sunnies, I just can’t. 

For the record, I think Sky are a team that will fall like a house of cards when we get to the truth but that doesn’t mean the other teams automatically get choirboy status.

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9 minutes ago, Tyno said:

Why don't we just focus on those dirty cheating Spaniards? :D

On this, we can all agree:lol:

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33 minutes ago, Tyno said:

Why don't we just focus on those dirty cheating Spaniards? :D

 

23 minutes ago, FatPom said:

On this, we can all agree:lol:

Well we know the kiwis never cheat. 

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34 minutes ago, Peter said:

 

 

Well we know the kiwis never cheat. 

Or if they do, they mustn't be very good at it.

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Based on the efforts of our cricket team, Aussies are rubbish at cheating.

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On 05/10/2018 at 8:10 AM, Andrew #1 said:

Wurf will get off the bike 5-7 minutes ahead of the Kienle and Sanders group and over 15 minutes ahead of the Lange-Gomez peleton. Cam will then run around 3 hours for the marathon. Sanders is likely to run 10 minutes faster than Wurf, unless he completely ****s up (which seems possible given his latest run video - 35km km in the heat of the day to the energy lab and back yesterday seems somewhat ... excessive) and we know Lange is capable of 2:39, but what about the others? I can’t see many running sub 2:45 and running Cam down ...

According The the IM talk guys chat with Thorsten last week, hardly any pro men run sub 2.50 or even sub 3hrs, so if cam runs near 3hr flat free his bike split he a massive chance for a top 5 this year. 

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On 10/10/2018 at 10:51 PM, Gilliga said:

According The the IM talk guys chat with Thorsten last week, hardly any pro men run sub 2.50 or even sub 3hrs, so if cam runs near 3hr flat free his bike split he a massive chance for a top 5 this year. 

Pro men most likely to run under 2:50:

Lange

MacNamee

Gomez

McMahon.

 

I reckon that everybody else is only an outside chance of sub 2:50; most have less chance than Rini ...

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Wurf

Berkel

Amberger

McKenzie

Reed                                          

Edited by toolex

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15 hours ago, RunBrettRun said:

Mackenzie 

Reed

Berkel

Wurf

Amberger

 

Bold and optimistic prediction.

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