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pieman

Ironman World Champs 2018

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3 months to the big dance so what are we thinking in terms of winners this year? Here's my keyboard captain thoughts..

Men

Jan has been going like a man possessed this year winning everything he's entered and beating his rivals and last year's successes Lange and Sanders.. Sanders has also been smashing it this year albeit mainly at 70.3 distance or weak IM fields. His swim has improved a lot but he still seems to be making regular changes to bike fit and equipment on whims so we'll see.. based on cairns I'm not sure gomez will be with these guys to be a factor? 

Ladies

Daniela was in a different league at Frankfurt so will be interesting what happens with Lucy Charles in kona. Could be a large group of strong bikers in the first swim group so could have a bit of a gap on Daniela. I'm looking forward to seeing Teresa adam go well but i think the kona heat might do her in..

Pensioners

Id say a strong German who trains indoors and looks about 35 will win over the rest of the fogies some of whom do hill repeats in wet weather. 

Its too soon to be pumped up but i am anyway..

Edited by pieman

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Oops. Sorry just read Ifoz saying he was goingin 19 and lost a year.. last time I'll try and start a topic about triathlon..

  • Haha 1

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the men's shapes as a great race - as it should.

Agree Jan looks hungry - commentators at frankfurt felt the crash and the way Josh shock the field up may have him less than 100% as well but he proved them wrong.

I think the one thing we know is that Josh races one way and that will be the plan again in kona - it wont be a sit and sprint affair like cairns almost played out (did i really just use that expression for an ironman?!! :P)

sounds like Wulf will do the same on the bike as last year - can Lange hang at the front of the bike and then run like last year? looked to sting him a bit in frankfurt.

If Josh and Wulf go balls out on the ride I cant see gomez hanging on - he was last wheel of the cairns pack from a long way out - maybe not this year but in the next 3.

Any news on whether Tim Don will get an entry?

As pieman said Sanders seems to have picked a predominately heavy 70.3 schedule so far this season - after last year and that toughness you would be crazy to count him out.

The ladies seems to be more between Ryf and Charlies - they present as the standouts to me with Carfrae, Sarah, Jackson and Adams probably racing for 3rd.

All of the above could go out the window very quickly - and that for me is what makes it so great a sport to watch!

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Ok I'll have a stab at a prediction, it's always hard. Assuming no mechanicals or penalties on the bike:

Burgs to lead off hard in the swim again and gap everyone. Frodo decides to take it easy in the main pack. Same with Potts if racing.

Wurf, Kienle and Sanders to swim second pack, come out close together, bike up hard and ride through the field to gap them. Frodo to let this trio go and stays within the main bike pack but still pushes hard to keep the gap small.

Wurf to fade on run, Kienle and Sanders to run together. Frodo trailing minutes behind out of T2, runs up and overtakes Kienle and Sanders. Lange bikes within the 3rd/4th pack, runs through the field with a low/sub 2:40 but the gap is too large coming off the bike and places 4th.

Results:

1st Frodo

2nd Sanders

3rd Kienle

4th Lange

 

Women's

Ryf

Daylight

Everyone else

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