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Gundy

The Sharemarket Thread

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I've got a few shares. In super (obviously) as well as a few in my own name. Over the years I've had some spectacular wins and some impressive disasters to balance out the ledger. Overall I've gone ok.

Keen to get some talk going with others that are active in owning shares and trading a few occasionally. I've tried a couple of share forums but find that the wanker triathletes on here are more likeable than the knobs on there :D

I'm very nervous at the moment that the market is due for a fairly large correction because of all the media talk about impending doom and market crashes. But I've been like that for a while now as evidenced by the fact I've had a little bit of cash available but haven't been able to place it anywhere because everything looks overvalued.

Couple of recent hits and misses

OFX - I bought these after I used OFX myself for some international cash payments and realised how good their service/product is to use instead of a bank. Unfortunately I bought them at $1.64 vs today's price of $1.45. Still think there's potential on this one.

SUN - I bought Suncorp last year at $13 share because of the yield. Sold them in Nov at $14 and have now bought them again today at $12.85. Always get a bit nervous about cyclones in Far Nth Qld at this time of year with SUN but the yield is v attractive.

WGN - Wagners are a construction mob in Toowoomba who recently built an airport. Bit of speccy purchase just because I liked their balls to just go out and build an airport. Only bought a small parcel because infrastructure companies can do it tough in a downturn.

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I dabble in this area a bit, got a few speccy Lithium and Cobalt miner/explorer type stocks playing the Battery storage theme. Others I hold include, 

CAT - Rode from $0.85 up to $4+ and most of the way back down. Still holding and think they'll come good as the recurring revenue side of things pick up. 

ALU - About my favourite ASX stock, value probably got a bit ahead of itself but came back a bit in last weeks' sell-off. Half yearly report on Monday will be interesting.    

 

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Also started using stake.com.au a few months ago to buy US based stocks, so far so good.

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Hold. Let's just say I am extremely friendly with many at the asx. And the future is bloody bright. A correction might happen but in the long term, you'll make better profits from shares than housing. 

The asx believes that the market will increase 4 times in the next 20 years. 

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When financial advisers are calculating the return on your share portfolio, is it correct for them to include the imputation credits as an additional return over and above capital growth + dividend income?  Wouldn't the value of the imputation credit depend on your marginal tax rate?  Mine seems to be adding the value of the imputation credit as an additional return (assuming I suppose that it will save me some tax - but if your taxable income was zero, doesn't that mean the imputation credit has no tax benefit?).

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55 minutes ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

When financial advisers are calculating the return on your share portfolio, is it correct for them to include the imputation credits as an additional return over and above capital growth + dividend income?  Wouldn't the value of the imputation credit depend on your marginal tax rate?  Mine seems to be adding the value of the imputation credit as an additional return (assuming I suppose that it will save me some tax - but if your taxable income was zero, doesn't that mean the imputation credit has no tax benefit?).

You would get a tax return for the Imputation Credit.

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Wagner's built it on time and under budget I think too.  Big enough to land a jumbo on and when the first one did I swear it looked like it was gonna land on my house.  I reckon I could see the landing gear wheels spinning.

I think they bid to build the Toowoomba bypass too but missed out.  Funny enough it's now like 7 months behind schedule and keep having accidents.

Gotta cover some dining chairs for the matriarch of the family soon.  Have also gigged at a few of their business Xmas parties over the years.

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Good thread I’ll be reading this with interest as I have zero idea on shares .

a few books the bride is reading is saying don’t buy a second investment property yet put your money into solid shares and save a bit for a deposit to buy the property a bit later on if you still want to?

our thinking was buy a property back up in Sydney for the kids for /if they go up for work ,uni etc

so confused ! Lol

 

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Buy actual asx shares. They can only go up. 

I have a fark load. 

Super funds need to invest. 

They buy shares. 

Share market goes up. 

Asx makes more money. 

Asx shares go up. 

Great divs. 

I got in at $8 and $16. 

Today 

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Keen to hear thoughts on Vanguard index funds like the ASX300 for instance? Looks like good return, low management fees and from what I've read index funds out-perform actively managed funds over the long term

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I'm a pretty lazy investor, buy, stick in the top shelf & forget about 'em. For that reason, these days I like the ease, simplicity & diversity investing in managed funds provide. Post GFC, I found it much harder to try & pick individual stocks, so have gradually moved the majority of my investments to MF's. MF's are also an easy way to get exposure to global markets, although I was way late to the US's party in particular. Anyways, MF's are easy to set up & with a regular investment plan in place, I just drip feed the $'s in every month, regardless of what the markets are doing. I rarely try to pick the highs & lows & just whack money in each month & this approach has worked pretty well long term. It's only a paper loss until such time as you sell, so unless you need the money, I just let things ride.

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16 hours ago, Riddos said:

CAT - Rode from $0.85 up to $4+ and most of the way back down. Still holding and think they'll come good as the recurring revenue side of things pick up. 

ALU - About my favourite ASX stock, value probably got a bit ahead of itself but came back a bit in last weeks' sell-off. Half yearly report on Monday will be interesting.    

 

CAT - That looks interesting Riddos. I'm always amazed at some of the niche market companies that end up listed on the Stockmarket.

Oldschool69 - You might find something like what Parkside and Moshboy are talking about would suit you.

32 minutes ago, \m/ Moshboy \m/ said:

 Post GFC, I found it much harder to try & pick individual stocks,

Isn't that the truth. Cherry picking the winning stock is like trying to pick the peak (or low) in the market. It only becomes obvious in hindsight.

 

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I buy my own shares in the super fund.  I have 2 rules on what to buy:

1. I follow people.  Example a really good exec I respected highly went to Kathmandu, and head hunted an absolute genius we had both worked with for a critical role.  Got into the shares at $1.70, got out at $2.10 around 8 months later.  Shares still sit around $2.20 so not sure if I got out too soon, but not losing any sleep over it

2. I invest with an aim to own across most of the ASX200.  To assist I get a newsletter from https://www.marketindex.com.au/analysis/consensus-recommendations-4-january-2018 that is free and look at the consensus data which is based on the recommendations of 6 or 7 different firms.  If 5+ are recommended something as a buy or strong buy, I do my own research and get in.  Overall gets me around 20% growth per annum overall, yet to have any large losses on a single stock.  Same things go for strong sell recommendations, but been around 3 years since I've had to enact one which goes well with my aim of buy and forget for the long term.  I still keep my buys low in volume and diversify

I have done a bit of speculation but only with small amounts, looking for the large risk / large return - eg dumped $1K on Slater & Gordon recently, figure if they turn around the returns will be great in the long term.  Did around the same money on Dick Smith so keep it only to what I can comfortably lose but don't do it often either - once a year is my own quota unless one pays off.

When the market fell last week, I moved quick to place the buy orders.  Heard the news over breakfast of the US fall, by the time work started had already researched another 3 companies and put in my buy orders.

I've said it in other threads before, don't waste your time on the Barefoot investor club.  They can't give a simple message, bought shares that were strong buys in the newsletters, only to see them contradicted on the website behind the pay wall as strong sells.  He may know is stuff but doesn't have a clue how to organise or give a clear message, and it cost me a bit - thankfully the above strategy has gotten me back to where I should have been.

Overall I follow my shares daily, just do a quick spreadsheet on how my shares are going against the market in general.  Most days I win, some days I do enough to double the ASX average overall, sometimes I lose but usually only by a small amount under.  I have no plans to be a billionaire tomorrow, just happy to keep working towards retiring around 55

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18 hours ago, Ex-Hasbeen said:

You would get a tax return for the Imputation Credit.

The imputation credit does not count as income (as the company has already paid the tax on that bit) BUT, is it correct to add it back to the total dividend as extra income?  I can't see how it is because everyones tax position is different.  If you are someone who arranges their affairs so they don't pay tax, there is no tax benefit in the imputation credit.  I've emailed our financial adviser to ask the question because I can't get the % return they say we are getting, but they have a cryptic footnote about imputation credits.

 

Should add, though we have bought a few of our own shares, we now get a local accounting firm with an investment advisory division to do it for us.  Tracking shares bores me stupid & I'm crap at it.  I'm just hoping they are better, but after the first 6mths with our $'s, the total value of the portfolio is down by 3% - largely due to them buying TLS and VOC.  They have invested for us in 13 Aus shares, 4 fixed interest funds (all major banks - e.g. CBAPD), and 2 Exchange Traded funds.

Edited by ComfortablyNumb

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3 hours ago, Cottoneyes said:

2. I invest with an aim to own across most of the ASX200.  To assist I get a newsletter from https://www.marketindex.com.au/analysis/consensus-recommendations-4-january-2018 that is free and look at the consensus data which is based on the recommendations of 6 or 7 different firms.  If 5+ are recommended something as a buy or strong buy, I do my own research and get in.  Overall gets me around 20% growth per annum overall, yet to have any large losses on a single stock.  Same things go for strong sell recommendations, but been around 3 years since I've had to enact one which goes well with my aim of buy and forget for the long term.  I still keep my buys low in volume and diversify

Interesting newsletter. Nice one Cottoneyes.

Suncorp up 40c from yesterday @ $13.25. Nice to be right occasionally, even if it's only for a day

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5 hours ago, Gundy said:

Interesting newsletter. Nice one Cottoneyes.

Suncorp up 40c from yesterday @ $13.25. Nice to be right occasionally, even if it's only for a day

Bloke I know is on a drip feed share purchase scheme at Suncorp and reckons he's actually lost money over the past 5 years because they always seem to buy at the high point of the cycle.  He reckon right now is a perfect example of whats happening.  Suncorp share price has been lowish for the past week and shares are usually issued on the 16th but he's betting they won't be issued till the 20th or 21st when the price has had time to rise by another $1.00-$1.20.

Then again, considering the problems they've had today, the share price might drop too.

AJ

Edited by -- AJ --

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I'm still nervous about the sharemarket. Sold some bank shares today just to reduce my exposure by a bit. No profit on those ones but no loss either.

 Lots of doomsayers out there at the moment. Interesting that Warren Buffett doesn't know what he's going to do with the US$116 billion is cash that they're currently sitting on because everything looks overpriced (this includes the extra $29 billion that Berkshire Hathaway is likely to gain from Trump's tax cuts).

Of the 3 shares I initially mentioned 2 weeks ago

- OFX $1.47 vs $1.45 2 weeks ago ($1.64 purchase price)

- SUN $13.56 vs $12.85 purchase price 2 weeks ago 

- WGN $4.35 vs $3.91 purchase price 2 weeks ago

 

 

 

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Australian Ago Company (AAC) is an interesting one at the moment, Share price has been in a steady decline since the last CEO resigned unexpectedly.  Price dropped immediately by around 7%, however corrected partially and has leveled out with the market.  New CEO who is former banker has been appointed and the price has continued to decline every since.  

Think overall the current price is undervalued and primed to be a target for partial takeover by a foreign company (subject to foreign ownership rules etc), but hard trying to know when to jump in on this one, keeping track of the news on it but think if it gets under $1 might be time to jump in and stay for the long term

Cleanaway (CWY) is another interesting one - with all the commotion on what to do with the recycling now the exporting is downgraded, they seem to be weathering the storm very well.  Still listed in the consensus report as a buy at $1.52.  (I got in on these at $1.12 thanks to the consensus report listing them as a strong buy at the time, but keen on getting a bit more if and when the recycling is sorted out)

If Sigma (SIP) sorts out their distribution issues that hit them late last year stripping 40% of their share price off overnight, might be another one to get onto for quick growth.  (Again bought on the basis of the Consensus report at 79c, still doing okay at 89c this morning but would prefer to see them back up in the $1.30s like they were end of last year)

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I got some inside knowledge of a wealthy listed company about to a notify that it's board of directors all quit and the lost 150 million due to lying. The chairman and founder will go close to the inside of a cell. 

Going to be real interesting. 

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free ~$85 or so if you buy 1666 shares of Virgin (VAH) by 4pm Friday. Virgin will pay you out at 0.30. Current price 0.24.

DYOR but free $

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Sadly Aidan, I can't buy less than $600 of VAH stock on market at the moment on anz share trading :( It was worth a try though! 

I'm filthy I missed this thread early on as I would have chucked some money at ALU had I seen it before their half year results came out. Ah well.

 

 

Edited by dazaau

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Share trading thread on a triathlete site. 

= time to sell ? 

 

Reminds me of a story. archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1996/04/15/211503/index.htm

 
April 15, 1996

(FORTUNE Magazine) – JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good, a theory also advanced by Bernard Baruch, another vested interest who described the scene before the big Crash:”

 

:)

 

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Bought some asx shares today. 

Only 1000. But they are a monopoly.  

What could go wrong. 

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1 hour ago, Peter said:

Bought some asx shares today. 

Only 1000. But they are a monopoly.  

What could go wrong. 

Not a monopoly anymore, Google chi-x. Over 25 per cent of trades now go through it.

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