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Fark, Joel Fitzgibbon has a 10% swing against him in Hunter

Hillary told the coal miners of Iowa in 2016 that she would put them out of work - it seems the coal miners up in Hunter don't like that idea either

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Noted Zali’s supporters didn’t boo anyone

and Barnaby’s speech about as ungracious as you’d expect

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3 minutes ago, Bosco said:

Those bookies who paid out on labour must be squirming. 

The bloke who put $1 million on Labor will probably neck himself

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4 minutes ago, Bosco said:

Those bookies who paid out on labour must be squirming. 

What about the punter that dropped $1M on Labor!

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4 minutes ago, more said:

What about the punter that dropped $1M on Labor!

Great minds 😉

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So, can Bill survive?

He's now been rejected twice. (Whatever we say about not voting directly for a PM)

Surely he's done his dash?

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1 minute ago, Tyno said:

So, can Bill survive?

He's now been rejected twice. (Whatever we say about not voting directly for a PM)

Surely he's done his dash?

I was just about to ask if it was too early to start talking about who is going to lead Labor.  Surely Bill is gone.  Wonder if the rape case will get reopened now the election is out of the way

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14 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

'There's only one poll that counts'

And it shows that when they say those opinion polls have a margin of error of +-3%, they really do!

So how much of this could be attributed not to Labor policy, but to the dislike of BS himself?  I said last election that I felt he cost them the win?  Is the unpopularity of a leader enough to swing voters against?

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This is unbelievable. ScoMo is going straight to the liberal hall of fame :lol: I'm very surprised, I expected Bill to romp it in. I can't beleive they held the Vic seats after the state election wipeout. 

I think two things hurt labor in the end. Firstly they thought promised too much change. It scared/affected too many people. The greens guy handing how to vote cards voted liberal because he couldn't afford the 8k cut in income from the franking credits change. There were so many changes that there would have been a lot of people who were scared about how it would affect them

Secondly, Bill shorten remains deeply unpopular. 

 

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57 minutes ago, Bosco said:

Bill must be nervous right now 

Agree.  Hopefully if he loses he will have time to work on his running. 

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Just now, Cottoneyes said:

Rob Oakeshott not returning either

He wasn’t even in to make a return 

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22 minutes ago, Bosco said:

FWIW - I read this thread for amusement. I have ‘no horse’ in either side of politics. 

256 pages.  Fark you need to get a life. 

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Julie Bishop just called it for the libs. 

She said the libs have never lost a federal election on the same night that the swans play and win. 

Mind you, north are coming back. 

77-62. 12mins to play. 

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1 minute ago, goughy said:

And it shows that when they say those opinion polls have a margin of error of +-3%, they really do!

So how much of this could be attributed not to Labor policy, but to the dislike of BS himself?  I said last election that I felt he cost them the win?  Is the unpopularity of a leader enough to swing voters against?

Both

The Liberals were always going to do better than in polls, because of the so-called 'tory effect,' which was also a big factor in the US in 2016.  Nobody is going to sneer at conservative voters in a polling booth

Labor policy of course had a huge effect.  Queensland is essentially Australia's retirement village, so they were never going to like their super being taxed.  Same effect I'm sure in Cowper, which the Nationals have held thanks in no small part to the retirees in Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour

As for climate change, there's only one seat in which it appears to have made a difference.  Zali is the Maxine McKew of 2019 though - Warringah will return to the Libs next time

Shorten's unpopularity has been underestimated as well though.  So much focus is put on 2PP polling, but if your party leader is as popular as a case of crabs at an orgy, it's going to hurt you on polling day

 

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Albo will be rubbing his hands as it’s his turn to be the labor leader. 

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4 minutes ago, goughy said:

And it shows that when they say those opinion polls have a margin of error of +-3%, they really do!

Discussion on the (in)accuracy of the Newspoll predictions.

Annabel Crabbe asks Arthur Sinodinos:

"If Newspoll is so inaccurate, isn't it time to stop sacking your leaders based on it?"

:lol:

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4 hours ago, Mike Del said:

You should have first gone back through this thread and checked out how accurately some of your assumptions turned out More, could have saved yourself a pineapple 🍍 

Mike this nice new stack of pineapples I have beg to differ 😂

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20 minutes ago, Tyno said:

So, can Bill survive?

He's now been rejected twice. (Whatever we say about not voting directly for a PM)

Surely he's done his dash?

Done. He has lost the un-losable election

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4 minutes ago, Paul Every said:

Discussion on the (in)accuracy of the Newspoll predictions.

Annabel Crabbe asks Arthur Sinodinos:

"If Newspoll is so inaccurate, isn't it time to stop sacking your leaders based on it?"

:lol:

Perhaps she should ask Turnbull

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3 minutes ago, Peter said:

Albo will be rubbing his hands as it’s his turn to be the labor leader. 

I'm not sure, as much as I don't like her I think Tania Plibersek will be given a go. Labor will love the idea of putting a woman in charge - in fact if they did it 6 months ago they'd probably have won. I can't believe how much they underestimated the dislike of Bill Shorten.

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Just now, dazaau said:

Done. He has lost the un-losable election

Comparisons have already been made with 1993

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8 hours ago, Paul Every said:

 

Edited by Prince

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1 minute ago, trinube said:

I'm not sure, as much as I don't like her I think Tania Plibersek will be given a go. 

Tania's partner is a major liability, not sure that is going to happen.  Destined to be the deputy

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As an aside, how good is it that the betting companies are going to get whacked badly.

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Just now, Cottoneyes said:

Tania's partner is a major liability, not sure that is going to happen.  Destined to be the deputy

It was drug dealing wasn't it? Or drug possession/using.

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1 minute ago, trinube said:

As an aside, how good is it that the betting companies are going to get whacked badly.

All I know is I can now afford that fancy new Scicon bag I've been eyeing off!!

Thanks Scomo 😎

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I am gob smacked.   Morrison is a legend 

Bill.  Not so much 

Edited by Prince

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2 minutes ago, more said:

All I know is I can now afford that fancy new Scicon bag I've been eyeing off!!

Thanks Scomo 😎

Dam. I shouldn’t taken that tip. 

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4 minutes ago, Cottoneyes said:

Tania's partner is a major liability, not sure that is going to happen.  Destined to be the deputy

Tanya is too much of a hater.  Very off-putting

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Just now, IronJimbo said:

Tanya is too much of a hater.  Very off-putting

I agree. They use her and Penny Wong as attack dogs and I've always perceived it as very negative. It's almost like they think people will forgive gross negativity if it comes from a woman.

Very pleased to see the mad monk ditched - oh, how I wish Dutton had been turfed as well. The best thing to come out of this is it will weaken the far right of the Libs and there's a better chance of a more centerist government.

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4 minutes ago, A2K said:

Big data FTW.  Looks like this type of data might be more accurate than any of the old polling types. 

https://www.news.com.au/technology/online/social/federal-election-2019-researcher-predicts-who-will-win/news-story/33ecf6b6c7b70e33b42146350d442e9a

Well I hope he put a few thousand on the Libs at 10 to 1 in the name of the Uni. They may need it over the next 3 years.

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I wonder how the Libs that bailed recently will be feeling? It's good this will result in a bunch of new blood.

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4 minutes ago, A2K said:

Big data FTW.  Looks like this type of data might be more accurate than any of the old polling types. 

https://www.news.com.au/technology/online/social/federal-election-2019-researcher-predicts-who-will-win/news-story/33ecf6b6c7b70e33b42146350d442e9a

It was actually that article this morning that prompted me to have a punt. Seems that like with the US election what people say publically and feel privately is two different things.

This forum is a perfect example-plenty of very vocal left leaning people who make it uncomfortable for righteaning people to speak up..

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Just now, trinube said:

I wonder how the Libs that bailed recently will be feeling? It's good this will result in a bunch of new blood.

New blood on both sides, if Shortpants goes, that will pretty much clean out the main players from the "Killing Season" from Labor.  With Abbot gone there is only Dutton and a couple of other minor players from the Libs left, and will have diminished power without the NSW right to back them up.

Hopefully we will see some stability going forward

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14 minutes ago, Cottoneyes said:

Just hoping SA does the right thing and keeps SHY out of the senate.

Oh, that would be the icing on the cake...

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Tanya talking about negativity - pot meet kettle.

Can't resist the temptation to put the slipper in rather than saying "We put some major changes to the people and they rejected them - we'll do something different next time"

Edited by trinube

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26 minutes ago, Cottoneyes said:

Tania's partner is a major liability, not sure that is going to happen.  Destined to be the deputy

 

25 minutes ago, trinube said:

It was drug dealing wasn't it? Or drug possession/using.

Quote from Wiki:

" Coutts-Trotter was given a nine-year prison sentence after being convicted for the importation and distribution of heroin into Australia in 1986.[1]  ..............At the time he was a heroin dealer and addict."

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8 minutes ago, Cottoneyes said:

New blood on both sides, if Shortpants goes, that will pretty much clean out the main players from the "Killing Season" from Labor.  With Abbot gone there is only Dutton and a couple of other minor players from the Libs left, and will have diminished power without the NSW right to back them up.

Hopefully we will see some stability going forward

It’s a bit like game of thrones.  

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9 minutes ago, more said:

 

This forum is a perfect example-plenty of very vocal left leaning people who make it uncomfortable for righteaning people to speak up..

I think you are completely wrong on this!  One, maybe two people.  I'm as left leaning as probably anyone here, and clearly as passionate about it.  Find me a person who I have tried to run roughshod over?  And many other of the lefties too.  And there are those on the right who give as good as they get.

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14 minutes ago, trinube said:

I wonder how the Libs that bailed recently will be feeling? It's good this will result in a bunch of new blood.

I think none?  Most had had long political careers, and will be getting their fat pensions!  And will move on to cushy jobs somewhere else while collection their pensions.

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Some of the labor pollies on sky look like their mothers have just Died.  Except Richo who has a wry smile he tells it how it is and he admits he got it wrong n

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17 minutes ago, trinube said:

I wonder how the Libs that bailed recently will be feeling? It's good this will result in a bunch of new blood.

Very good, given that most of them were either leftists or Turnbull loyalists

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