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Labor can lose from here and I'll still go to sleep happy.  Dutton loses and I'll have a party.

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6 minutes ago, goughy said:

Labor can lose from here and I'll still go to sleep happy.  Dutton loses and I'll have a party.

It's the worse possible outcome for labor in 3 years, libs just made a massive jump back to the centre

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42 minutes ago, Parkside said:

Abbott to retire on back benchers pension 👍👍👍👌👌👌🎂🎂🎂

And then even if the libs win we don’t have to worry about an Abbott comeback.

looks like he can become a pro age grouper now. 

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1 hour ago, softy said:

Is climate change really a policy that would swing a voter to one party or another?

Exit polls indicated that overall for  30 odd % of the voters it was their number 1 issue, that places it as the most important issue with voters. In Abbott’s seat of Warringah the climate came in at 52%

Edited by Mike Del

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21 minutes ago, Parkside said:

Abbott to retire on back benchers pension 👍👍👍👌👌👌🎂🎂🎂

Thank Fark.  

Dutton next?

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1 minute ago, Peter said:

Thank Fark.  

Dutton next?

Sadly looking like Dutton will be saved.

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Just now, Peter said:

Thank Fark.  

Dutton next?

Unfortunately it doesn't look like it.

Unless all the pre-poll votes are from Labor supporters. That's unlikely though, as it would be all the Liberal voters that don't mind working on a Saturday without penalty rates that would have had to vote early.

 

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lol

Dutton with a swing towards him

Leftist hatred appears to have gotten the job done in Warringah though, so even if ScoMo wins overall they can still go to bed with a smile on their face 

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Tony Abbotts speach was one of the most dignified and respectful defeat speaches I have heard. Hopefully some of the people on the left will show some similar class....

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5 minutes ago, more said:

Tony Abbotts speach was one of the most dignified and respectful defeat speaches I have heard. Hopefully some of the people on the left will show some similar class....

Unlike his disrespectful statement on the death of Bob Hawke.

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5 minutes ago, more said:

Tony Abbotts speach was one of the most dignified and respectful defeat speaches I have heard. Hopefully some of the people on the left will show some similar class....

A very gracious speech.  Rightfully stated that the bigger picture is the result of the party

It will probably still be viewed negatively by people who are blinded by their hatred of him

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2 minutes ago, AA7 said:

Unlike his disrespectful statement on the death of Bob Hawke.

What was disrespectful about it-that he said he had a liberal head and a Labor heart? I think he was spot on. Hawke was able to achieve some significant changes that would be classified right leaning whilst also achieving significant change that was obviously very left.

Why are people on the left side full of hatred that the mere thought that someone can hold left and right thoughts is an outrage...

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3 minutes ago, Bosco said:

Bill must be nervous right now 

he is worried about losing his deposit from the removalists. 

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2 minutes ago, Prince said:

he is worried about losing his deposit from the removalists. 

Had Sco-Mo even moved in? 

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16 minutes ago, more said:

Tony Abbotts speach was one of the most dignified and respectful defeat speaches I have heard. Hopefully some of the people on the left will show some similar class....

Ironic that he waited till he was no longer a  politician to start being dignified and respectful.

must be using that speech as a job interview 

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19 minutes ago, more said:

Tony Abbotts speach was one of the most dignified and respectful defeat speaches I have heard. Hopefully some of the people on the left will show some similar class....

Zali is about to speak, so let's see...

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1 minute ago, roxii said:

must be using that speech as a job interview 

Hope like hell it wasn't the US Ambassador or some other plum job

Maybe he can be Prince Philip's chauffeur

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At the very least she is that, of not she'd be more right leaning.  Apart from her climate change stance.  I would figure the same with Phelps?  

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31 minutes ago, AA7 said:

Unlike his disrespectful statement on the death of Bob Hawke.

Agree.

Conversely, Morrison's response to Hawke's passing was gracious and fitting of his position as PM.

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Coalition primary vote is currently 40.5%.  2PP is 50.7

'There's only one poll that counts'

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Fark, Joel Fitzgibbon has a 10% swing against him in Hunter

Hillary told the coal miners of Iowa in 2016 that she would put them out of work - it seems the coal miners up in Hunter don't like that idea either

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3 minutes ago, Bosco said:

Those bookies who paid out on labour must be squirming. 

The bloke who put $1 million on Labor will probably neck himself

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4 minutes ago, Bosco said:

Those bookies who paid out on labour must be squirming. 

What about the punter that dropped $1M on Labor!

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4 minutes ago, more said:

What about the punter that dropped $1M on Labor!

Great minds 😉

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So, can Bill survive?

He's now been rejected twice. (Whatever we say about not voting directly for a PM)

Surely he's done his dash?

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1 minute ago, Tyno said:

So, can Bill survive?

He's now been rejected twice. (Whatever we say about not voting directly for a PM)

Surely he's done his dash?

I was just about to ask if it was too early to start talking about who is going to lead Labor.  Surely Bill is gone.  Wonder if the rape case will get reopened now the election is out of the way

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14 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

'There's only one poll that counts'

And it shows that when they say those opinion polls have a margin of error of +-3%, they really do!

So how much of this could be attributed not to Labor policy, but to the dislike of BS himself?  I said last election that I felt he cost them the win?  Is the unpopularity of a leader enough to swing voters against?

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This is unbelievable. ScoMo is going straight to the liberal hall of fame :lol: I'm very surprised, I expected Bill to romp it in. I can't beleive they held the Vic seats after the state election wipeout. 

I think two things hurt labor in the end. Firstly they thought promised too much change. It scared/affected too many people. The greens guy handing how to vote cards voted liberal because he couldn't afford the 8k cut in income from the franking credits change. There were so many changes that there would have been a lot of people who were scared about how it would affect them

Secondly, Bill shorten remains deeply unpopular. 

 

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57 minutes ago, Bosco said:

Bill must be nervous right now 

Agree.  Hopefully if he loses he will have time to work on his running. 

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Just now, Cottoneyes said:

Rob Oakeshott not returning either

He wasn’t even in to make a return 

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22 minutes ago, Bosco said:

FWIW - I read this thread for amusement. I have ‘no horse’ in either side of politics. 

256 pages.  Fark you need to get a life. 

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Julie Bishop just called it for the libs. 

She said the libs have never lost a federal election on the same night that the swans play and win. 

Mind you, north are coming back. 

77-62. 12mins to play. 

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1 minute ago, goughy said:

And it shows that when they say those opinion polls have a margin of error of +-3%, they really do!

So how much of this could be attributed not to Labor policy, but to the dislike of BS himself?  I said last election that I felt he cost them the win?  Is the unpopularity of a leader enough to swing voters against?

Both

The Liberals were always going to do better than in polls, because of the so-called 'tory effect,' which was also a big factor in the US in 2016.  Nobody is going to sneer at conservative voters in a polling booth

Labor policy of course had a huge effect.  Queensland is essentially Australia's retirement village, so they were never going to like their super being taxed.  Same effect I'm sure in Cowper, which the Nationals have held thanks in no small part to the retirees in Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour

As for climate change, there's only one seat in which it appears to have made a difference.  Zali is the Maxine McKew of 2019 though - Warringah will return to the Libs next time

Shorten's unpopularity has been underestimated as well though.  So much focus is put on 2PP polling, but if your party leader is as popular as a case of crabs at an orgy, it's going to hurt you on polling day

 

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Albo will be rubbing his hands as it’s his turn to be the labor leader. 

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4 minutes ago, goughy said:

And it shows that when they say those opinion polls have a margin of error of +-3%, they really do!

Discussion on the (in)accuracy of the Newspoll predictions.

Annabel Crabbe asks Arthur Sinodinos:

"If Newspoll is so inaccurate, isn't it time to stop sacking your leaders based on it?"

:lol:

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4 hours ago, Mike Del said:

You should have first gone back through this thread and checked out how accurately some of your assumptions turned out More, could have saved yourself a pineapple 🍍 

Mike this nice new stack of pineapples I have beg to differ 😂

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20 minutes ago, Tyno said:

So, can Bill survive?

He's now been rejected twice. (Whatever we say about not voting directly for a PM)

Surely he's done his dash?

Done. He has lost the un-losable election

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4 minutes ago, Paul Every said:

Discussion on the (in)accuracy of the Newspoll predictions.

Annabel Crabbe asks Arthur Sinodinos:

"If Newspoll is so inaccurate, isn't it time to stop sacking your leaders based on it?"

:lol:

Perhaps she should ask Turnbull

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3 minutes ago, Peter said:

Albo will be rubbing his hands as it’s his turn to be the labor leader. 

I'm not sure, as much as I don't like her I think Tania Plibersek will be given a go. Labor will love the idea of putting a woman in charge - in fact if they did it 6 months ago they'd probably have won. I can't believe how much they underestimated the dislike of Bill Shorten.

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Just now, dazaau said:

Done. He has lost the un-losable election

Comparisons have already been made with 1993

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