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34 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

 prices doubled since the carbon tax was axed

yep.   one also wonders if we should have also never privatised energy in the first place.  We seem to privatise the basics 

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AEMO is forecasting prices to fall over the next 10 years, due to the impact of renewables and declining demand. Forecasts beyond 2030 are then possibly rising again, but subject to whatever new technology might bring.

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I still don't get why people focus so much on energy (electricity, petrol) prices (actually I do because the media have convinced them it so important).  Seems to me that for most living in capital cities their biggest financial woe is mortgage or rent costs due to crazy high property prices, even with low interest rates.

Our last quarterly electricity bills were $716 (winter, reverse cycle a/c for heating, temps down to minus 7), $351, $383, $487 = $1,450/yr.  2 people in a new (very well insulated) 4 bed house on 1000m2....which cost $560K (would be $2M+in Sydney or $1,000+/wk rent...but theoretically similar electricity cost).

Fuel the price can vary by up to 15c/L here = $7.50/tank variation.  A tank in the Jetta lasts 4 weeks around town = $97/yr potential cost variation.

But then:

$400K mortgage = $22,200/yr repayments

$1.5M mortgage = $82,236/yr repayments

We've never borrowed more than $200K for our houses.

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2 hours ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

I still don't get why people focus so much on energy (electricity, petrol) prices (actually I do because the media have convinced them it so important).

That's a bit of a chicken-egg thing - News polls every few weeks bring results that politicians now feel compelled to base policy on, and that gives the media justification to ramp up the importance of news polls. For the media, confirmation bias is a wonderful thing - it retains readership - and the political circus of Energy Policy is the gift that keeps giving. The media is deplorable in the way they use this to their advantage, but the politicians of all sides are to be condemned for obsessing on media and playing politics (and in Abbott's case, personal revenge) rather than good public policy.

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4 hours ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

I still don't get why people focus so much on energy (electricity, petrol) prices (actually I do because the media have convinced them it so important).  

 

if you are a pensioner or low income earner who lives in Melbourne or another extreme cold environment, and where electricity prices are much dearer than the northern states, I can see why it is a focus. Australia is also one of the most expensive countries for electricity.  

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15 hours ago, XCOM! said:

AEMO is forecasting prices to fall over the next 10 years, due to the impact of renewables and declining demand. Forecasts beyond 2030 are then possibly rising again, but subject to whatever new technology might bring.

do you really believe that electricity prices will fall? , I don't share your optimism.   We should have built more new coal plants 10 yrs ago. Coal will always be the cheaper fuel, and we have tons of it here. 

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12 minutes ago, Prince said:

We should have built more new coal plants 10 yrs ago. Coal will always be the cheaper fuel, and we have tons of it here. 

Gas is the better alternative to coal and we have a heap of that too, but have chosen to give it away. Gas is far more of an on-demand 'base-load' resource, which is why the generators want to build combinations of renewables and on-demand gas, to replace coal.

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when they make money for borrowing money and gold plating infrastructure, it is not a surprise that prices go up

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Maybe REAL competition will help to bring price drops. When that happened here we got a 20% drop on our bill overnight.

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So two things have happened since the "leadership challenge"

Turnbull has removed Paris agreement targets

Dutton has said there is no challenge in a statement

Samantha Maiden summed it up the best in her tweet:

"Translation: thank you, Prime Minister, for capitulating to conservatives’ demands to abandon legislated Paris targets. I reserved the right to resign on my Hadley interview, if not happy with legislation. We are running government & Turnbull ergo I don’t need to challenge, yet."

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4 minutes ago, BarryBevan said:

when they make money for borrowing money and gold plating infrastructure, it is not a surprise that prices go up

Yep, Transmission and Distribution network fees make up 45-55% of the total retail price - varying across states. Retailer fees are now about 15% of the retail price. The differential between coal (even with existing infrastructure) and it's alternatives in the Wholesale price, is a relatively small component of the total retail price.

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1 hour ago, Prince said:

do you really believe that electricity prices will fall? , I don't share your optimism.   

Damn straight!  When has anything ever gotten cheaper?  At best they will hold.  But no way in hell will prices be going down!

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22 minutes ago, goughy said:

Damn straight!  When has anything ever gotten cheaper?  At best they will hold.  But no way in hell will prices be going down!

The AEMO report forecasting falling prices to 2030 is what the NEG is based on, and accounts for most of its predictions for reduced bills.

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2 hours ago, XCOM! said:

Gas is the better alternative to coal and we have a heap of that too, but have chosen to give it away. Gas is far more of an on-demand 'base-load' resource, which is why the generators want to build combinations of renewables and on-demand gas, to replace coal.

There is very limited gas infrastructure though, unfortunately.  I have lived in over 10 residences in the last 15 yrs and none of them had gas on.  I agree we have to renewables but not at over 45% which labor wants.  If they were really serious about renewable energy, they could easily provide better incentives for home solar panels. They provide some incentives for the setup, but they could easily further reduce the cost back into the grid.  Bring back PMG in Qld I say! remember PMG, EX? 

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20 minutes ago, Prince said:

There is very limited gas infrastructure though, unfortunately.  I have lived in over 10 residences in the last 15 yrs and none of them had gas on.

I meant gas for electricity generation - as in gas-turbine generators. That allows electricity generators to dial the non-renewable generation up/down to meet demand. This is the infrastructure the generators want to build rather than new coal.

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7 hours ago, XCOM! said:

That's a bit of a chicken-egg thing - News polls every few weeks bring results that politicians now feel compelled to base policy on, and that gives the media justification to ramp up the importance of news polls. For the media, confirmation bias is a wonderful thing - it retains readership - and the political circus of Energy Policy is the gift that keeps giving. The media is deplorable in the way they use this to their advantage, but the politicians of all sides are to be condemned for obsessing on media and playing politics (and in Abbott's case, personal revenge) rather than good public policy.

Too true

5 hours ago, Prince said:

if you are a pensioner or low income earner who lives in Melbourne or another extreme cold environment, and where electricity prices are much dearer than the northern states, I can see why it is a focus. Australia is also one of the most expensive countries for electricity.  

Yeah, I guess.  But I still think for most people it is not their #1 financial problem

4 hours ago, XCOM! said:

Gas is the better alternative to coal and we have a heap of that too, but have chosen to give it away. Gas is far more of an on-demand 'base-load' resource, which is why the generators want to build combinations of renewables and on-demand gas, to replace coal.

Yup

4 hours ago, BarryBevan said:

when they make money for borrowing money and gold plating infrastructure, it is not a surprise that prices go up

Yup

1 hour ago, XCOM! said:

I meant gas for electricity generation - as in gas-turbine generators. That allows electricity generators to dial the non-renewable generation up/down to meet demand. This is the infrastructure the generators want to build rather than new coal.

Yup - but we keep sending the gas O/S because that makes for money for the gas companies....and in some cases having to buy it back at higher prices (Santos) to meet their local commitments.

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3 hours ago, XCOM! said:

I meant gas for electricity generation - as in gas-turbine generators. That allows electricity generators to dial the non-renewable generation up/down to meet demand. This is the infrastructure the generators want to build rather than new coal.

yes, I understand. good point. 

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19 hours ago, goughy said:

Damn straight!  When has anything ever gotten cheaper?  At best they will hold.  But no way in hell will prices be going down!

But Axe the Tax was supposed to make everything ok

 

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16 hours ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

 

Yeah, I guess.  But I still think for most people it is not their #1 financial problem

 

Mortgages can be a fixed, or anticipated cost. Don't overcommit, have some leeway for an interest rate increase (remember those) and in most cases your outlay is a known, predictable amount.

Energy on the other hand is increasing out of control. Large households can be paying double what they were 5 years ago, with NSW paying almost double Vic and Qld. That is not anticipated. https://www.afr.com/news/australian-households-pay-highest-power-prices-in-world-20170804-gxp58a

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Our electricity bills last 5Yrs: 

Oct bill (biggest winter)  -  $620 (old house, poor insulation, no electric heating but electric hot water) then new house (electric heating a/c but gas hot water) $421 (-32% over old house), $623 (+48%), $691 (+64%), $716 (+70%).

April bill (summer, minimal a/c use) - $ 459 in old house, new house $373 (-19% over old house), $341 (-8%), $350 (-6%),$ 458 (+23%).

After the last winter bill I rang up Origin and told them to stop pissing with me, so they re-instated the 19% pay on time discount which they'd quietly removed. If you stay on top of them, your prices do not have to double.  

Problem is, many people - and I can def confirm local govt - don't understand electricity bills, so get screwed.  It's not so much the cost of the electricity in cents/kWh that has gone up, but the daily access fee to be connected to the grid (due to gold plating of the network).

Also (after a big shitfight with Origin) I got us on a Time Of Use plan, as I'd calc'd that would save us about $300 pa.  Required dropping the term "Energy Ombudsman" and 6mths to get action though.

Re mortgages, it seems to me in capital cities it is nearly impossible not to over-commit buying a dwelling, even with record low interest rates?  Unless you have rich parents who give you a whacking deposit, or you are on a massive income (I'd want $200K+, and $300K+ hhold income to live in Sydney), you'd have to borrow at least $500K to get a one bed dogbox anywhere east of Penrith?

Our kid's are on way less than $100K (less than $50K in one case) in Syd and home ownership is impossible unless we were to stump up $300K deposit - which we can't.  If they lived regional, they'd be able to get a foot in the door for $200-250K on their dinky first job salaries.

I could not live with the stress of a $500K+ Sydney mortgage.  I'd rather earn far less and have a life.

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Wouldn't even have a clue what ours is!  We don't really do anything else, so our electricity bill is one of our lifestyle choices...... using the dryer, aircons etc.

Do the Libs think they could win with Dutton, or do they believe it's coming anyway so are preparing by putting him in now to have him start working the people longer than just after losing an election and putting him in?  Is Dutton the best choice they can come up with, cause me, I dislike him even more than TA and I loath TA.  Is he a legitimate choice for the right supporters?? (all of them, not just the right right right supporters)

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I think it is more about saving a few seats and not wining the election. It is straight from the Labor playbook of changing Gillard and back to Rudd. Unfortunately, it is a poor strategy as people don't like divisive parties, hence the latest opinion polls. 

However, in saying that, it is not until someone is given the top job that they might shine, as it is hard to know what Dutton is really like. 

I favour anything to keep Shortlips from running our country. 

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It's about TA doing whatever it takes to bring down MT, and Dutton is just a tool (pun intended).

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1 hour ago, Prince said:

I favour anything to keep Shortlips from running ruining our country. 

FTFY

The libs can't be serious about Dutton, might save a few seats in redneck wonderland, however the other states are going to shift so far to the Left that even a state government won't be Blue again for 50 years

(Andrew, hope you were reading that last bit in a private area and I'm not responsible for any obscene action charges stemming from it if you were reading this in a public area)

Hell, things might go so far left we end up with PM Hanson-Young...

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2 hours ago, Cottoneyes said:

FTFY

You guys are hilarious. I'm not supporting Shorten, but I'm over Abbott running/ruining the country.

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7 hours ago, goughy said:

Do the Libs think they could win with Dutton, or do they believe it's coming anyway so are preparing by putting him in now to have him start working the people longer than just after losing an election and putting him in?  Is Dutton the best choice they can come up with, cause me, I dislike him even more than TA and I loath TA.  Is he a legitimate choice for the right supporters?? (all of them, not just the right right right supporters)

Dutton may well not be the answer, but he would definitely fare better for the simple reason that he is a genuine conservative.  And in the absence of a clear alternative, they might as well give him a go

Turnbull has killed his own leadership by trying to appease people who wouldn't be caught dead voting Liberal, thus alienating his own base.  I've said all along that he obviously joined the wrong party, and now he's about as popular as a  case of crabs at an orgy.  Anyone who lets Bill f*cking Shorten win 30-something Newspolls in a row has serious problems

Turnbull cannot win the next election.  Dutton might

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Dutton and Shortpants might be the expense we have to pay to get either of the major parties to pull their shit together

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Quite possibly

It's hard to see who the next Howard would be, that's for sure

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Impossible to see you mean, and I didn't even like Howard!

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Turnbull cannot win the next election.  Dutton might“. 

if the electorate was made up of true conservatives, as you call them, you might be right. The last time such a “true conservative” won, Labor was at each other’s throats. There is no such luxury for the liberals this time around.

If “the answer” is Obrestgroupenfuhrer Kartoffelkopf then it must have been a hell of a question. ...

but, hey, 99% of the electorate has the same views as folk that tune into 2GB and skynoos, right?

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Anyone who lets Bill f*cking Shorten win 30-something Newspolls in a row has serious problems

 

two liberal PMs in a row. One tried going full “true conservative” as you like to say, the other by trying to appease both conservatives and centrist liberals. Two failures against your dispised Bill Shorten.

 

Oh, and something else to ponder (choke on your cornflakes) - Bill has never failed at anything he’s turned his hand too. Ever. Geez he must be “lucky”. In the last 5 years alone he’s had 2 PMs, a Royal Commission headed by a former High Court Judge with the backing of all the resources he wanted, the ROC, AFP and assorted members of the KillBill club in the CPG go after him. He’s still standing ... lucky, I tell ya. 

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8 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

Turnbull cannot win the next election.  Dutton might“. 

if the electorate was made up of true conservatives, as you call them, you might be right. The last time such a “true conservative” won, Labor was at each other’s throats. There is no such luxury for the liberals this time around.

If “the answer” is Obrestgroupenfuhrer Kartoffelkopf then it must have been a hell of a question. ...

but, hey, 99% of the electorate has the same views as folk that tune into 2GB and skynoos, right?

I guess we'll see how much unity there really is in the Labor party when border protection is brought up at their national conference

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2 minutes ago, Andrew #1 said:

Anyone who lets Bill f*cking Shorten win 30-something Newspolls in a row has serious problems

 

two liberal PMs in a row. One tried going full “true conservative” as you like to say, the other by trying to appease both conservatives and centrist liberals. Two failures against your dispised Bill Shorten.

 

Oh, and something else to ponder (choke on your cornflakes) - Bill has never failed at anything he’s turned his hand too. Ever. Geez he must be “lucky”. In the last 5 years alone he’s had 2 PMs, a Royal Commission headed by a former High Court Judge with the backing of all the resources he wanted, the ROC, AFP and assorted members of the KillBill club in the CPG go after him. He’s still standing ... lucky, I tell ya. 

Wow, what a guy

And yet he still can't lift his personal approval above the early thirties

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“I guess we'll see how much unity there really is in the Labor party when border protection is brought up at their national conference

 

about as much unity as in the 2016 national conference when the usual congaline of KillBill experts predicted his demise over BOATS!!!

not so much. ...

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And yet he still can't lift his personal approval above the early thirties

 

who cares? Remember win little Johnny Howard was stuck in 18% approval ratings? He went ok politically in the end ...

You are confusing charisma with competence, and I’m left wondering whether like Ali, as he whispered to Foreman towards the  end of the 4th round in the rumble in the jungle “is that all you got?”

... like Foreman, if you are being honest then the answer is “yep, that’s all we got”. KillBill. Rinse and repeat. ...

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You seem very excited that your team are on the cusp of winning again Andrew

We can only hope that they did a better job than they did last time

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The only way Labor are not winning the next election is if the whole party is revealed to be a cult of baby eaters, even then a loss would be unlikely if Dutton is at the helm of the Coalition.  Sadly though I think we are likely to see both parties try and outspend each other, the Libs in desperation and Labs in fear of losing the impossible, which will be a bad outcome for the country in general.  Those in safer conservative seats would no longer be looking at who the next leader is but the one after that.

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1 hour ago, Andrew #1 said:

Oh, and something else to ponder (choke on your cornflakes) - Bill has never failed at anything he’s turned his hand too. Ever. Geez he must be “lucky”. 

pretty sure he lost the  last election.

Edited by Prince

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30 minutes ago, Prince said:

pretty sure he lost the  last election.

Shhhh...

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1 hour ago, Prince said:

pretty sure he lost the  last election.

Well ok. However Truffles still haven’t gotten over that Bill didn’t lose quite as emphatically as he should have! KillBill!

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In what may likely be his last days in the Fuhrerbunker it’s timely to remember all the great nicknames that Malcy has aquiried over the past three years:

Truffles McLobster

Mr Harbourside Mansion

Fizza

Brian Trumble

Gilderoy Lockhart

and recently, Lucien Aye (you might have to think about that one for a while, but once you get it, it’s a cracker).

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3 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

“ - Bill has never failed at anything he’s turned his hand too. Ever. 

Do you think he could turn his hand to having a personality?

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Welcome to the modern politician!  

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4 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

 Bill has never failed at anything he’s turned his hand too. Ever. 

Speech therapy? 

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6 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Dutton may well not be the answer, but he would definitely fare better for the simple reason that he is a genuine conservative.  And in the absence of a clear alternative, they might as well give him a go

I find this interesting.

I'm definitely not a Dutton fan, but he keeps getting elected out in ExHB country.

Is it as simple as appealing to your base more than the guy you're looking to replace?

Even if they get their base to back him, can they get/keep enough swinging/undecided voters to maintain a majority?

 

Can we just have a 5 - 10 seat victory so we don't have constant second guessing and sniping whoever wins?

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2 minutes ago, Tyno said:

I'm definitely not a Dutton fan, but he keeps getting elected out in ExHB country.

Is it as simple as appealing to your base more than the guy you're looking to replace?

Buggered if I know how he does it. He's just scraping in, yet everyone I talk to hates him. An the majority of the electorate, population wise is coming from higher density housing areas like Warner & Petrie. I would have thought they'd be pushing the Labor barrow and gotten rid of him years ago.

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11 hours ago, roxii said:

Speech therapy? 

There's nuffing wrong wif the way Bill speaks...

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11 hours ago, Tyno said:

I find this interesting.

I'm definitely not a Dutton fan, but he keeps getting elected out in ExHB country.

Is it as simple as appealing to your base more than the guy you're looking to replace?

 

Look at Longman.  Mal Brough was a pretty popular member in what is hardly LNP heartland.  But Abbott was also popular enough up there to get Wyatt Roy over the line

Then Roy helps Turnbull to roll Abbott and now the ALP holds the seat with an increased majority...

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14 hours ago, Andrew #1 said:

In what may likely be his last days in the Fuhrerbunker it’s timely to remember all the great nicknames that Malcy has aquiried over the past three years:

Truffles McLobster

Mr Harbourside Mansion

Fizza

Brian Trumble

Gilderoy Lockhart

and recently, Lucien Aye (you might have to think about that one for a while, but once you get it, it’s a cracker).

Damn, I can only think of a couple of nicknames for Shorten

Looks like I'm going to have to vote Labor...

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