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About Stoney!!!

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  1. Anything south of Burleigh? The Tweed Coast is great too. It’s not as easy to get to the quiet hills and countryside as southern GC though. Still much better than Sydney though with regards to that.
  2. Stoney!!!


    The community transmission rate is not a number that should be considered in isolation. Many countries didn’t know they had community transmission occurring until their ED’s and ICU’s were rapidly overwhelmed. In Italy, a football match is thought to have caused a large number of cases, in the US events like a Mardi Gras are likely culprits. The other pieces of information that need to be considered are: * How many tests are being conducted? WA has done only half the tests that QLD has done per capita, and only a third of SA’s numbers. (Only Tasmania and the NT have done fewer tests. NT has a low case burden but Tasmania is a concern.) * Who is getting tested? Initially, only people meeting strict testing criteria were getting a test (due to the availability of test components.) Now we have more tests available, criteria have been expanded (but still require significant fever or definite URTI symptoms). If WA are still testing at low rates (and Victoria is not much better), it suggests they are not testing as broadly as other states. Only the sick who are presenting to ED etc are likely to be the ones captured. Ideally before we relax restrictions too much we would broaden widely our testing base. Random testing and the like to help establish a true incidence of the virus in the community. Unfortunately the nasal swab has a high false negative rate (25%), and the serology testing is even less reliable at this point. This does limit the utility of this approach (more reliable and rapid testing will help). We have been very lucky to avoid the overwhelming devastation that has occurred elsewhere so far. I hope this continues to be the case.
  3. Stoney!!!


    Good to see this thread has got itself back on track. For those who are wondering why New Zealand has gone full lockdown ahead of Australia, it is important to consider the resources each country has to draw upon in the worst case scenario. It is not simply a matter of one leader being better than other, more that there expert panels are advising what needs to be done in the situation. For example, New Zealand has roughly half the number of ICU beds per capita that Australia has. It is easy to see why they need to avoid the overwhelming situation.
  4. Stoney!!!


    I think the "flattening of the curve" is more due to the good work of public health teams and extensive contact tracing than us respecting social distancing rules. It is allowing us to overcome some of the bad decisions (most likely politically motivated) that were made early on. Particularly, not imposing self quarantine periods on travellers coming from the US until we applied it to all travellers. Don't want to accept Donald. It was clear from the number of cases diagnosed in travellers returning from the US that they had sustained community transmission (and very poor testing systems in place). While there are criticisms of the amount of tests being performed in Australia, it is reassuring that we aren't yet seeing large numbers of unwell patients presenting in ED. This suggests our sustained community transmission is not yet occurring in large numbers (fingers crossed). I like the Victorian initiative of testing 1 in 5 patients who don't fit the current criteria but present for testing - this will give us an idea of community spread of the disease. If only we could be like Iceland and try and test everyone.
  5. Stoney!!!


    Critical care specialists who are not intensive care doctors will be able to transition into the role safely to support workforce demands. Nursing staff in critical care areas would be able to support also once trained on the ventilators.
  6. Stoney!!!


    For almost everyone on this forum, contracting COVID-19 is likely to only result in a mild illness (so again, don’t be alarmed). As a society, we all need to wash our hands, stay off work (and away from social gatherings) if unwell, and if put into quarantine, don’t break it.
  7. Stoney!!!


    The true incidence of influenza is difficult to know as most people who present to a GP or ED with symptoms aren’t tested for it (unless clinically having a more severe illness). Reported cases have increased in the last few winters, but that is because testing has become more widespread. Due to this an actual mortality rate is difficult to determine. Each year though there are significant numbers of deaths due to influenza, but the overwhelming majority are in the elderly population. Each winter ICU’s around the country are at capacity dealing with the normal patient surge. No patient who would benefit from a particular therapy is denied access to it. The influenza virus is constantly circulating in the community. For us, the flu vaccine is based on the most common strains circulating in the northern hemisphere in their preceding winter. Every so often, a different enough influenza virus will emerge that will cause problems. This last happened in 2009. With it, 80% of deaths occurred in the under 65 age group, the reverse of normal. It was thought that those older than that must have been exposed to a similar strain of influenza in their early life. In that pandemic, ICU’s reached capacity but were not overwhelmed. If you needed to be ventilated, you were. Access to more invasive treatments (like ECMO), were “rationed” ie strict eligibility criteria were applied before you could get it. This men’s that some who may have benefited from it missed out. During that pandemic, some patients were ventilated for months. I would anticipate that the worst cases of COVID-19 would be the same.
  8. Stoney!!!


    This is not meant to be an alarmist post but rather put in perspective all the numbers quoted. Where I live the public hospital has a catchment of roughly 150,000 people. If only 1% of people were to become infected at any one time we would have 1,500 potential patients. Up to 5% of patients overseas have needed ICU support. We can hope that with our lower smoking rates and potential under-diagnosis overseas we might get away with half that figure. That gives us 37.5 patients we need to ventilate (some of who might be ventilated for weeks.) We have 8 ventilated ICU beds. Taking all the ventilators out of operating theatres would increase that to 15. It is easy to see how quickly the system can reach capacity. This is why I am so grateful for the tireless efforts of public health teams contact tracing and arranging quarantining of high risk contacts to delay community transmission for as long as possible. With that hard work and a bit of luck, we might avoid the demand surges that we are seeing overseas. Otherwise, it is a very long winter ahead, particularly for those who work in the health system.
  9. Stoney!!!


    Because we were worried that on a seaming grassy pitch with overcast skies our openers might get dismissed in single figures again? If things had of gone to plan and they both had a half decent dig once the pitch flattened out the selectors wouldn't have looked so bad for dropping Head and Khawaja.
  10. From being a listener of ABC Grandstand, I don't think Tracey Holmes is a big fan of WADA (think Essendon and meldonium). I would be reading what she has said on the matter in that context. (She is a highly regarded sports journalist though.) Sun's behaviour with the smashing of the vial raises concerns of an athlete who knows he is still "glowing", and is delaying the sample being taken until such point as he knows it will be out of his system. I'm sure there are many cyclists who wish they could have done the same when the testers came knocking on their door!
  11. Can it do workouts like Zwift? Or do you just ride at your own tempo (with Kickr resistance adjusted to terrain)? Can you automatically upload to Training peaks post ride? Currently on Zwift but happy to give alternates a go
  12. There is a second trial in March. The media coverage now would make it difficult to find a jury that wasn’t aware of this conviction. I have no sympathy for him or other offenders of his ilk, but would rather not give him grounds for an appeal if he was found guilty at the second trial.
  13. There is an upgraded board walk to run along instead. Council has taken 6 months to build it, I think the tri course has been good motivation for them to get it finished!
  14. Stoney!!!

    WTB Ay-Ups

    I have a set I am happy to part with (at a cheap price as they need a new battery). PM me for details
  15. Check out https://membersown.com.au/. It is a list of all the mutual funds that still exist. If you are eligible to join any of the above funds it is worth considering them. They are more generous in the benefits that they pay to practitioners, which will usually mean reduced out of pocket costs for yourself. It kind of makes sense that they should pay more back to their members - they don’t have the profit requirement of the corporate funds, nor do they spend as much in advertising.
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