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monkie

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Everything posted by monkie

  1. monkie

    Coronavirus

    I interpreted the first one as you sat in your driveway and then you swapped into other peoples' driveways which was, at the time, against the law which was that you could only leave your property for specific reasons of which socialising was not one. If you meant you swapped positions on your own driveway then that's completely different and I apologise but the way it was worded made it sound like you swapped driveways. Edit to change house to property.
  2. monkie

    Coronavirus

    The is a bit of this. It's one of the reasons that hospitals saw a massive spike then nothing. An A&E consultant explained it as"all the people usually coming in to die already did that last month".
  3. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Deaths are not the most important metric because they have a 2 / 3 week lag although our stats are truly horrible. New cases is the one to look at and that is trending down, under 2,000 yesterday for the first time in ages and that's (finally) with a proper testing regime. But yes it's still high. We're not going back to normal but we are slowly relaxing, alas a lot of people aren't following the rules anymore. I don't really know what changed to start the relaxing other than political pressure, we shall see. We'll have thousands more dead before this is done though, horrific and sh
  4. monkie

    Coronavirus

    No. He's a data scientist. I think perhaps one of the data scientists I work with (totalling 30) would describe themselves as a skilled computer programmer.
  5. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Also, his code wasn't spaghetti. Have a look at it, if you know C and Python then it's not that hard to understand: https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim
  6. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Buggy code in safety critical is different from buggy code in the data world. That's kind of built as you go and then you get a result. Of course there will be a discussion, it was a model and it should be discussed and yes the lack of peer review is worrying but there wasn't really time. And the Booty call is a classic Dominic Cummings tactic, he waited until he needed to hide the actual news and then dropped it. We shall have to wait and see what the long term outcomes are to judge response. But my hunch (and this is just. hunch) is the the UK, the US and Brazil ****ed it.
  7. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Not having a go at you at all Barry and know you've seen the effects first hand. The first article as I said is moderately OK, but not really fair. Comparing a working notebook of code which you would build as you analyse is completely different to making software for commercial release. The article shows a lack of understanding of how data science is actually done. The second I won't read as it's an internet forum, not science. The third is barely any better, it's certainly not research, it appears to be a commentary about an individual which misses the point quite badly. The m
  8. monkie

    SMS spam?

    I spend a lot of time talking to people about smishing which is SMS based phishing! Increasingly problematic for large businesses.
  9. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Barry you are right that hospitals have been less busy over the whole period (Im talking UK but I'm sure true in most countries) but that's what happens when you stop a country. It was kind of the point. Fewer car crashes, nobody breaking their legs playing sport, no Friday night and Saturday night fights, stop non-emergency surgery... Of course there is going to be capacity. We also saw the effect of the "only go to hospital if you really need to" mindset. Similar to after 7/7 in London. However I really have to ask where this came from? It looks suspiciously like a Facebook C&
  10. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Daily figures here: https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk Look out for Peng Wu's replies. They're some of the most useful charts. Live data lives here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
  11. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Really positive numbers today. Always need to be careful around the weekends but if they're accurate then it looks like I might have been wrong. Everything crossed.
  12. monkie

    Coronavirus

    I think what we're seeing here is the effect of different experiences in different parts of the country. FP lives in leafy countryside (as do I) but I spend a lot of time going into London where behaviour and situations are very different. People are being encouraged to return to work, in fact told they must do so by the government. In the countryside this is fine, people can drive. Most people in London do not own a car and rely completely on public transport. So the government advice to "Return to work but avoid public transport" is pure BS. It's impossible for hundreds of t
  13. monkie

    Coronavirus

    I hope they're all wrong but to the untrained eye (I'm no epidemiologist) I really cannot see what has changed. We still have thousands of new confirmed cases each day (3,451 yesterday, daily stats here: https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk) and hundreds of people dying (468 yesterday). We're cramming people back onto trains / the tube / buses and planning on sending kids back to school without actually solving or changing anything. Like I said, I don't know for certain, nobody does, but at a tactical level in SJA we're gearing up for another busy few weeks similar to what we had when it starte
  14. monkie

    Coronavirus

    That's based on modelling I think rather than hospital data? I hope you're right though! A friend was out yesterday and noted they had their first ?Covid in a couple of weeks of none. Can't draw any conclusions from that but with travel around the country starting again and thousands of cases nationwide I'm sceptical. Especially seeing pictures of the tube rammed.
  15. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Well... Interesting times as it appears we head towards a second peak. The breaking of lock down rules last weekend for VE day has been compounded by deliberately vague government guidelines for this week. A Cummings classic where the focus has been effectively shifted to arguing about what is and is not allowed rather than focusing on the second worst death toll in the world. We haven't seen the impact of that in the numbers yet but I don't think it's going to be an improvement. The reinfection rate is on the way back up and we're back to 8 weeks ago when we were effectively relying
  16. monkie

    Coronavirus

    It's tough. Of course it is. If you don't find this tough then you are incredible (and I don't mean lockdown, a lot of people have found that OK, I mean if you're not worried about living through a pandemic). I have been struggling for the last two days, it ebbs and flows. But it will end. Stay as strong as you can but don't beat yourself up about having shit days / weeks / months. And yeah, saying goodbye over the internet is the worst. Closing the doors on people in front of their families with that family honestly knowing that that might be the last time they see them has been in
  17. monkie

    Coronavirus

    There is light at the end of that tunnel mate, Hong Kong is opening up, they have the numbers under control. My colleagues there are in a "cautious normal". Stick with it. We'll get there. We have to.
  18. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Detail came out today, I kind of think they should have had it ready yesterday and released it at the same time but meh, not a biggy. And I completely agree, the economy is vital and that's going to be the one thing we feel for the next god knows how many years, the whole economy vs lives thing is a complete false dichotomy. And of course we can cope, we've done ?7 weeks already so we can do some more, I would have just preferred some clarity i.e. "You still cannot visit the homes of friends or family" or you can! Either way. I think we've ended up in a bit of a weird nether-world
  19. monkie

    Coronavirus

    It didn't answer the most important things (to a lot of people) which are about seeing family and friends, it was very focussed on work which is also important but on a less emotional level to many people. Our family Whatsapp group was all discussion about the rules and what he said with people gleaning new bits of information from various g'ment sources (some of which were then immediately contradicted this morning)... So if the aim was clarity of message then I think it missed the mark. You are right that the rules on going to work haven't changed but the "stance" has. You were always
  20. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Challenge away Done.
  21. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Just to add @FatPom you've edited a couple of posts above and not commented explaining the edit, you have thrown some shade which I'm not going to respond to in detail but I think is an unfair interpretation of what I have said, particularly about how I "act". I haven't changed how I act and I will continue to act in exactly the same way. I might make comments about stuff but that really doesn't change how I act. Call 999 and I'll be there if needed (I'm doing a SEECAMB shift in the next couple of weeks) but I hope we finally get to meet in more positive circumstances.
  22. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Nothing in there has anything to do with having a party. I don't want to get into an argument, because I'm tired and three glasses of wine down and we need to remember to be kind. My "disgusted" comment was not aimed at people doing their best in these difficult circumstances. I know I have it easy, there's two of us living in a big house with a garden and I get to trundle off and drive around for a "day out" on an ambulance whenever I want. I'm sure you acted responsibly and had a much needed day of human interaction which was against the strict rules of the law but hey, I broke the spe
  23. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Restrictions on movement 6.—(1) During the emergency period, no person may leave the place where they are living without reasonable excuse. (2) For the purposes of paragraph (1), a reasonable excuse includes the need— (a)to obtain basic necessities, including food and medical supplies for those in the same household (including any pets or animals in the household) or for vulnerable persons and supplies for the essential upkeep, maintenance and functioning of the household, or the household of a vulnerable person, or to obtain money, including from any business l
  24. monkie

    Coronavirus

    What guidelines are you talking about? I'm talking about the law which is very clear.
  25. monkie

    Coronavirus

    Most of what I saw was in London where it's a complete free for all but round my way (near Maidenhead) they all pretended they were social distancing but kids were running round in gangs, people were "popping over to say hi" to each other (and seemingly unable to understand what TWO METRES means). But like I said, it doesn't matter, it's all illegal. We need proper fines, Aussie style not £35 and they need to be enforced.
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