Jump to content

Cat Lady

Members
  • Content Count

    1,596
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Cat Lady last won the day on November 24 2017

Cat Lady had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

720 Excellent

About Cat Lady

  • Rank
    Senior Addict
  • Birthday 02/07/1962

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Female
  • Location
    God's Own Country

Previous Fields

  • Year of first Tri race?
    2009

Recent Profile Visitors

890 profile views
  1. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    isn't the idea just to slow the spread of the virus to enable health system to cope? the only way, short of a vaccine which despite some news reports to the contrary will be at least 12 months away, is to develop herd immunity which requires sufficient numbers to have had the disease? Total lock down will not enable this to happen from what I can understand.
  2. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    and the new zealand health minister has been busted taking his kids for a walk and mountain biking. do as I say, not as I do.
  3. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    not to mention learner drivers: https://www.9news.com.au/national/victorian-learner-driver-fined-nonessential-travel-during-coronavirus-shutdown/73d377ce-31b1-4bc0-85f3-760335f2bdab
  4. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    also be interesting to see a comparison of death rates if they toss in a control group.
  5. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    Beware of headlines. It’s actually quite sensible what he Said: If we had unlimited numbers of masks I think it would be important to have a conversation with the Australian community who, unlike many countries in Asia where it is very commonly used...this is not a way that in general Australians use masks,” Dr Kelly said. “Using a mask incorrectly can actually make it more dangerous. So for example, if you are not used to wearing a mask, it can become quite uncomfortable, even claustrophobic. And indeed, it can become quite itchy underneath the mask. “Touching a surface with the virus, scratching yourself underneath the mask, could in fact increase your risk rather than decrease your risk. “If we got to that point, then certainly there would be a need for a strong conversation about how to fit a mask properly and how to use it.”
  6. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    yep, and while the majority are taking pay cuts the politicians are proceeding with their 7% pay increase, because "they are working really hard at the moment" Crikey!
  7. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    Not to mention the new Wonder Woman movie double 😡
  8. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    More if this analysis is to be believed https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/free-childcare-for-working-families.html
  9. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    Simplicity maybe ? Love to be the person trying to means test anyone these days. I know of several high income people who have paid full fees for child care now on 10%_20% of previous income but still having to go to work. Means test is based on income and assets. At any rate it will be disadvantaged children and children of essential workers children who will get priority.
  10. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    And the majority of us debt is held by us social security https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124
  11. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    They had to be registered with the child care centre as at 2 March or if they left in two weeks leading into it are eligible to reapply. Child care centre will receive 50% of their previous revenue stream. They will not take any new enrolments. All it is doing, aside from ensuring vital workers have somewhere for that children to go, is to ensure there is a viable sector on the other side.
  12. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    The money goes direct to child care centres.will not go to parents. This is to keep from a total collapse of the industry and ensure there is one on the other side.
  13. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    A quick analysis by Magellan on the economic actions taken by various governments around the world and likely outcomes The policy responses cover those by central banks and governments. Central banks appear to be taking two courses. The first is to reduce interest rates as far as practicable; that is, making money effectively free. The other is to ensure the financial system has sufficient liquidity to ensure it doesn’t freeze. We are seeing massive injections of liquidity by central banks via a scaling up of quantitative easing, providing liquidity-support facilities to businesses, liquidity support to other central banks (currency swaps) and liquidity to critical areas of the economy such as the repo markets and money-market funds. We have been impressed with the actions taken by the major central banks to date; they are acting nimbly, and with scale and speed. They appear to be winning the fight to head off a liquidity crisis, and will tailor responses as issues emerge. At the same time, some difficult issues haven’t yet been addressed that are likely to put further strains on the financial system. One unresolved issue is the support to be given to sub- investment-grade companies that have borrowed in the high-yield and leverage-loan markets. Another area to be resolved is what happens when many companies have their credit ratings downgraded from investment grade to sub-investment grade. Solving these issues is difficult and might require a co-ordinated response from governments and central banks. With fiscal policy, we are seeing governments implement four possible packages of fiscal responses. One is to compensate all businesses for 100% of their lost revenue. This would keep balance sheets intact and enable businesses to pay all their employees and key suppliers; for example, landlords, lenders and so on. Businesses could furlough workers and restart when the economy reopens. In this instance, there would be a limited rise in unemployment, despite a hit to GDP, and activity would resume when the economy reopens. The output gap would be transferred to governments and to central-bank balance sheets via quantitative easing. This would be a V-shaped economic recovery. Singapore and Denmark come closest to adopting this strategy. The second strategy is to compensate businesses for some of their revenue loss and allow them to meet permitted expenses such as wages, interest on loans, rent and utilities. Employees would be furloughed. The US has a program to lend up to US$10 million to companies employing fewer than 500 people. Under this strategy, a large part of the output gap would be transferred to governments and central-bank balance sheets and the remainder would be shared by society. This would save many businesses and enable them to restart. This combined with an effective mitigation strategy would be the best chance of a U-shaped economic recovery. Germany is following this strategy. The third strategy is to compensate workers for 70% to 100% of lost wages (typically capped at the median wage). This strategy preserves personal balance sheets, but not businesses that have to manage fixed costs. The issue here is that, outside of wages, the remainder of the output gap would fall on businesses, landlords, utilities and banks. This is also likely to hit property prices. Even if many businesses survive, they would emerge with additional debt or balance sheets that were damaged. This would impede their ability to invest and employ as many people as before. They would cut costs to survive even when the economy restarted. This strategy would head off the most dire of economic outcomes but it is unlikely to prevent a deep and prolonged recession and a significant jump in unemployment. Many western governments are pursuing this strategy. These governments might well provide additional fiscal support to preserve businesses’ balance sheets that could be expected to support a stronger economic recovery. The last strategy is zero compensation. A country loses 17% to 50% of annual output (depending on the duration of the blow to the economy). Many businesses would not survive, particularly small businesses. The property market would crash. Banks would face severe loses. This is the depression scenario. Fortunately, almost no developed country is following this strategy. We fear many emerging markets will not have effective mitigation strategies and be unable to fill a meaningful part of the output gap. We are particularly concerned about Africa, Latin America, India and emerging countries in Southeast Asia. Conclusion The situation remains fluid. It is difficult to predict how the next two to 12 months will play out. We think there is a range of outcomes for the economic recovery, from a V-shaped recovery (a fleeting recession) to a U-shaped recovery (a mild recession), a prolonged and deep recession and, at the pessimistic end, a depression. We believe that for many major economies a V-shaped recovery and a depression appear the least likely scenarios. Outside of a few countries, a recession (a U-shaped recovery) to a deep and prolonged recession appear the most likely outcomes at this point in time. The good news is that governments and central banks are calibrating their responses to attempt to mitigate the economic fallout.
  14. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    can recommend you read this article https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ and in case you are unaware of who John ionnadis is and why he might know what he is talking about you can check his wiki page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ioannidis
  15. Cat Lady

    Coronavirus

    Interesting reading in the Australian today about statistics Statisticians are looking to Germany for clues as to what the virus outcome might be. Italy’s numbers appear worryingly high, but experts say that is because every person who dies with coronavirus is recorded as dying from it. “Only 12 per cent of death certificates (of people listed as dying from coronavirus) have shown a direct causality from coronavirus,” said Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s health ministry. “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.’’ He said while 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, the other 88 per cent of deaths had least one comorbidity – and many had two or three. Each year in Italy there are 17,000 deaths from influenza. In Germany, on the other hand, any underlying health conditions – often heart disease – are usually noted as the cause of death, rather than the coronavirus.
×
×
  • Create New...