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Alex Simmons

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Alex Simmons last won the day on January 20

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About Alex Simmons

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    Bellingen, NSW

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    1900

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  1. Aside from a multitude of logistical issues which make a complete lockdown impossible to achieve, there are significant constitutional issues when it comes to the deployment of military/defence force for civil/domestic law and order. The very act of policing such a strong lockdown would itself be a breach of the lockdown. Then you have all the essential services that still have to be performed. Energy, water, food, medical services and supplies for a start. Emergency services. All the multitude of people who rely on in-home care for basic like being fed and hygiene. Hospitals. Production and distribution of essential products. This list is endless. Shut all that down and even more people die. There are nearly 10 million households in Australia. There is simply no way to provide for that many individual households other than via the existing distribution infrastructure and systems. There are less than 60,000 active armed forces service personnel and another 20,000 or so reserves. The transport and distribution sector in Australia employs over 500,000 people. And that's delivering our goods via the existing methods (which involves a high degree of self service by the end customer).
  2. I've been wondering how long it was going to take one of the leaders to articulate this fundamental reality. As a nation we are going to be making some difficult choices about the path ahead. The more personal freedom we permit, the more die from COVID-19. Have it locked down too tight for too long and more die or suffer injury (physical/mental) from other causes. Some factors are also out of our control - there is also a randomness to such things. Layer onto that the safety net provided by governments isn't going to be possible to maintain for this duration, makes for even trickier calls ahead. Rock, meet hard place.
  3. Had the same for ages.
  4. BTW - When I said Americas, I was referring to North, Central and South America. e.g. the under reporting is Brazil is likely to be significant. One state had more deaths last week from respiratory disease (not listed as COVID-19) than the official cumulative death toll for the whole nation. And that local weekly toll (>400) was nearly 10 times that for the same period last year. Another city has brought in containers to hold 3,000 corpses, while another city has dug and filled hundreds of graves in the space of a week, well beyond their normal demand. There are clearly some individual US states and cities with much more reliable data than others.
  5. The real impact won't likely be known for years. In some cases it's deliberately fudged, in some it's simply inadequate data collection, others wilful ignorance. About the only way to know is to collate all the relevant death data (e.g. burials/services) from local towns and cities. It's a different time, but there was massive govt suppression of data on the Spanish flu in the USA that was not lifted until 1970s. It took a combined effort of reporters across the nation to collate data from local papers on death notices to expose what was really going on. The under reporting of infections in much of the Americas is large, like order of magnitude large. Australian data will be wrong too, but probability is it's not nearly as wrong as in many other countries and for that we can be thankful.
  6. Oh it's a terribly transmissive environment, as is the game in general. There only has to be one slip through the net and it matters not how it gets there, be it via a footballer transgressing (which is inevitable given the personalities involved) or via supplies, people entering the venue for deliveries, staff that rotate in etc. I question the ethics of tying up such a valuable resource of a venue which can truly be an effective quarantine zone, with all the supplies and medical facilities and medical personnel to support a dozen+ football teams and staff. Surely there are better uses for those resources, facilities and people.
  7. I can't see sporting events having any remote chance of happening until deep into 2021. Exceptions would be those in full lockdown quarantine for the duration of the "season". I'd say the sort of sport that could happen is something like Japanese Keirin racing, where the riders already operate in a form of lock down quarantine already (for betting security/integrity reasons). Expecting multiple NRL / AFL squads to cope with a lengthly quarantine/lockdown together is absurd. It'd be like the meth lab construction crew in Season 4 of Better Call Saul. It won't end well.
  8. When (if) the government does finally release the modelling and explanatory notes, assuming they release all/enough of it, then we'll be in a position to see what strategy they are attempting to deploy and what they currently view as the end game and priorities. It's hard to know at the moment because we are still at the early stages of this journey and current tactics could be applicable for more than one trajectory plan. I have no issue with the models adjusting as more and better information comes to light, and that in turn may result in modifying the government's strategies and expected end game. It is important this information be made available and they be transparent about the strategy. Millions of people with a lot more thinking time on their hands are eventually going to fill in an information vacuum themselves, and it'll be shaped by whichever media they tend to consume (e.g. the cohort listening to Alan Jones telling everyone it's all overblown). If everyone knows where we are seeking to head towards and what the measures of success or strategy change triggers are, then I think it will give more incentive to keep on working together and to do so for longer.
  9. While not directly related to this question, one factor to consider is life expectancy in 1920 was about 25 years fewer than it is today.
  10. Anyone tried filling their tyres with water? Was thinking of giving it a go to see if I can improve traction a bit.
  11. It's as much about how we pay for it, which requires us to export. Consider that two of the five biggest export earners for Australia are tourism and education services, both involving large numbers of people coming to the country and which employ hundreds of thousands of Australians. Both sectors have clearly been smashed and there is no normal for them or the sectors they spend money and interact with. International students alone represent well over half a million people (~550 thousand) spending $32B/year here. And socially, 29% of us were born overseas, and half of all Australians have at least one parent born overseas. It's a tough pill to swallow for those who are cut off from seeing their loved ones.
  12. And what this whole episode is demonstrating is these are actually choices we make as a nation, and indeed we could do a lot more about it. Same with the road toll. Yes, it's going to be pretty awful for a large number of people and we have no idea of the anticipated social/human costs. I'm not sure "full lockdown" means what you think it means. Full lockdown from the virus's perspective means every human who is susceptible is out of its reach for as long as the last virus is alive. Since we have community transmission from unknown origins, then full lockdown isn't really achievable. The mere act of Policing it means it can't be. Our best chance of getting some level of normality back until we have attained herd immunity (by vaccine or infection) is through testing, testing, testing.
  13. Which is precisely why our governments need to be transparent about the modelling and rationale for their decisions?
  14. You can't pass your choking onto someone else. And I'd bet the number of such deaths could be significantly reduced with improved aged care resourcing. Only for that though. My concern is not limited to Scomo. There have been some pretty interesting calls re the powers of policing made without scrutiny at State level as well. By and large I think the govt has made some good calls and many of them have had a "come to Jesus" moment about how f'd up we'd be if they didn't take it seriously. That however does not absolve any of them from appropriate scrutiny and accountability. This covers a range of decision making, and the health and social policies are but one (hence openness and transparency I think really matters). Another concerns the enormous amount of money which is going to be granted over the coming months, and probably years. Given the record of governments in directing funding in ways which at times are politically biased (or personally biased/corrupt), it's even more important that scrutiny and accountability is not only assured, but is seen to be assured. When key planks of scrutiny and accountability are abandoned or overly delayed, we should all be very concerned.
  15. Scomo takes so long to actually say anything I stopped listening to him and instead wait for the much more informative precis provided by some members of the media. I'll also read materials as usually you can cut through the waffle more efficiently. There is no downside to releasing the information, so why hide it? So did I, except Parliament has been closed down for most of the rest of the year. So much for parliamentary accountability. People lie all the time when entering the country. We don't just wave them through while there is a global pandemic going on. We do sensible things like conduct rudimentary health checks, temperature screening. To lay all the blame on the cruise would be a complete cop out and dereliction of duty. I agree if they lied that reprehensible however at the same time, we now have human beings in several ships in our waters who need our help and as a nation we are being complete arseholes about it. Yeah yeah foreign flags of convenience and all that. We're happy to see them spend all the cash in our ports during the good times but once in trouble and needing health help, nah screw you and bugger off.
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