Rocket Salad

Housing Bubble thread.

247 posts in this topic

we sold up a couple of years ago. We looked at some places when we were in Sydney in 2013, places I wouldn't have even considered Sydney 15 yrs ago were now in the 'possible' bucket. (Asquith, Berowra etc). The more I look at it though, the more I fancy Melbourne on a housing vfm front.

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Our neighbour recently added $100K to the value of our property.....well, for me anyway.

 

He said "Hey, your wife says you're into fly-fishing. I put some bass in my dam about 10yrs ago and don't know what happened to them. Maybe they died in the cold, maybe they got washed out in a flood, but I could never catch one. I can catch the yellow-belly, but never a bass. Why don't you have a go".

 

Happy Dayz. A wee private fly-fishery 200m away, perfect when I can't be bothered driving an hour to the rivers :)

 

I confirmed the bass are alive & well........

 

 

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Kiddies, if you want to take a look at where and how fast Sydney is likely to grow (you have to believe the government's policy belief system which I'm never entirely convinced of) take a look here:

 

http://visual.bts.nsw.gov.au/tz

 

I work with this stuff all the time. There's a treasure trove of information on that site if you're interested in transport stuff.

Edited by tortoise

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Drop the tz/. Click on the Travel Zone Explorer.

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Kiddies, if you want to take a look at where and how fast Sydney is likely to grow (you have to believe the government's policy belief system which I'm never entirely convinced of) take a look here:

 

http://visual.bts.nsw.gov.au/tz/

 

I work with this stuff all the time. There's a treasure trove of information on that site if you're interested in transport stuff.

 

Gillian, do you reckon they get these projections from the NSW Dept of Planning? Same source said our town would grow 24% by 2030, had me scratching my head. I asked them how they arrived at such a growth rate and got a fairly unconvincing answer about comparative birth and death rates and lots of young people here who would have kids. There are lots of young people here because of the large regional university. But most go elsewhere to have kids.

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What are the growth industries that will support the population growth?

 

Are wages going to rise at the same rate of housing?

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Comparing the boom here with what happened in the UK (boom-to-bust), is that it seems lending is still under control in Australia. In the UK mortgages were being offered well above people's means, so people were buying dream house++. Interest rates changed, loads of defaulters, housing crash.

 

I agree with some of the above points, the foreign money coming-in will probably keep driving prices. As an n=1, the neighbours had an open house today, I was in my front garden doing some paving work, and every single person who visited was of Chinese origin (and driving damned nice cars)! Wifey was talking to the neighbour as the viewing was going on - expected price is above what is considered the market rate for the area - the upward drive continues it seems.

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Again, the demand comes from those actually occupying homes. Who pays for the home isn't the driver. I seriously doubt investors (foreign or domestic) are buying stacks of homes to be left unoccupied.

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Sorry Alex, don't follow your thinking, could you explain?

 

This is my thinking: if the owner sets a reserve, and it goes to auction, surely it's the buyers who then drive the price-up above that reserve, which influences the prices in the area as a whole. What am I missing?

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Newcastle home sellers are living in dream land. Visited a absolute shit hole of a place (trees growing in the pool) psycho wallpapers in the room etc etc g and they want 410 for it!! They need a bull dozer in that place.

 

Visited couple more places - both of them haven't been sold for a while and prices reduced on them.

 

Don't know if the bubble will burst anytime soon but the sellers expectations on the price is astronomical!

 

I'm prepared to wait and sus it out and then bargain the crap out of it

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The forecasts match ABS nationally and Dept Planning at SLA level. The fine area are mix of land release timing but controlled to the higher totals. Yeah, births deaths ageing fertility rates and internal migration all come into it. My experience is that it's often an over estimate in Sydney. And a serious over estimate in rural areas.

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Off topic.....more a side topic...

Remember the Japanese investments in the 80s and 90s? It all went pear shaped. Resorts and shopping centers were sold for a fraction.

Will the same happen with all the Chinese investment?

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Sorry Alex, don't follow your thinking, could you explain?

 

This is my thinking: if the owner sets a reserve, and it goes to auction, surely it's the buyers who then drive the price-up above that reserve, which influences the prices in the area as a whole. What am I missing?

 

Prices are mostly a function of supply and demand of housing and not so much on the source of finance.

The demand for homes comes from people needing/wanting a dwelling to live in. If there are not enough tenants in the market looking for dwellings to rent, then investors don't buy, or cap their price limit accordingly as the rental yields are not there.

 

Bubbles come about when too much housing is built compared with the demand from people to live in them. UK, USA, Spain all had mad building activity which still sees today lots of unoccupied dwellings. same in some Chinese cities.

 

Where in Australia's major cities are there large sections of unoccupied buildings?

 

Yes there are normal price movements up and down over time at the moment we are above the long term (100+ year) trend. The big price crashes tend to be at the top end of the market when the top end of town get hit big with financial market fluctuations.

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Sydney prices are silly because demand exceeds supply. Surprise, surprise, not everyone is rushing to live in a 1-BR shoebox, which is what government and developers think we want out in the burbs.

 

We live at Beecroft and the blocks nearest the station have been zoned for apartments, which is fair enough as close to transport is where this sort of densification should be happening. I've looked at the plans and there are two apartments in each of the developments that would realistically allow us to move from our 4BR house and still not fall over each other. The rest are just tiny.

 

Around Carlingford, with no good public transport, there will be an extra 10,000 people within the next 18 months, all in small multi-storey flats.

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More doom and gloom.

 

http://www.news.com.au/finance/superannuation/gfc-was-merely-the-beginning-of-the-end-what-do-you-do-when-the-iceberg-hits/story-e6frfmdi-1227386809222

 

"A major crash would obviously wreak havoc not only on asset values and the net worth of everyday Australians but cause major stress to the financial system itself. But if prices keep skyrocketing at five or six times the rate wages are growing, thats going to have a huge impact on the economy as well.

The more money that is tied up in property either through rental, home deposits or mortgage repayments the less will flow into the real economy. And the RBA, while well-intentioned, is only causing more problems by slashing interest rates.

Its the old saying, when all youve got is a hammer everything looks like a nail,....."

Edited by Rocket Salad

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More doom and gloom.

 

And the RBA, while well-intentioned, is only causing more problems by slashing interest rates.

Its the old saying, when all youve got is a hammer everything looks like a nail,....."

One issue being that self funded retirees are getting stuff all return on their money through term deposits etc and are turning to real estate for better gains, further increasing demand.

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We need to close this thread now , as our fine treasurer mr hockey said today thAt housing prices in Sydney and melb arnt unrealistic to the "normal" person

 

I'm not really sure where this blokes lives but it's not in the real world

 

Not sure how anyone is gunna afford to borrow up to $1mil just for there first home espually when they are paying $600 plus a week rent

 

Glad I own a house , I couldn't afford to buy one now

Cheers

IVP

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What does a small house on the outskirts of Sydney cost these days? And by small, I mean 110sqm. You know, without the pool, aircon & European appliances, like our parents built on the outskirts of the city. It's just the outskirts are a lot further out now.

 

Would honestly like to know, but then does anybody build a small affordable home any more?

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What does a small house on the outskirts of Sydney cost these days? And by small, I mean 110sqm. You know, without the pool, aircon & European appliances, like our parents built on the outskirts of the city. It's just the outskirts are a lot further out now.

 

Would honestly like to know, but then does anybody build a small affordable home any more?

I have a small house outskirts canberra 500 k

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What does a small house on the outskirts of Sydney cost these days? And by small, I mean 110sqm.

3 bed, 1 bath, 1 car "villa" in Mt Druitt (You know, Struggle Street) for $410 k.

$750 k + for a 2 bed fibro house in Revesby

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3 bed, 1 bath, 1 car "villa" in Mt Druitt (You know, Struggle Street) for $410 k.

$750 k + for a 2 bed fibro house in Revesby

Does anyone work in mt druiit ???

Serious Q?

Cheers

Ivp

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